Simulation 3
Greece, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 3: a good simulation (90th percentile) of the experiment's 30. Capability index 12.10 at the 1996 position, 12.34 in 2026; 150 actions over 30 rounds and 4 shocks.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 3
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 11 (median simulation), 22 (a poor simulation (10th percentile))
Outcome
From the 1996 position to 2026.
- Capability index
- 12.34 (+0.24)
- From 12.10
- Rank by index
- 26
- From 28
- Domains at Tier 1
- 5
- From 0
- Events
- 4 shocks
- 0 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1997 |
| 12.12 +0.018 | |
| 1998 |
| 12.15 +0.036 | |
| 1999 |
| 12.21 +0.055 | |
| 2000 |
| 12.27 +0.065 | |
| 2001 |
| 12.35 +0.075 | |
| 2002 |
| 12.43 +0.081 | |
| 2003 |
| 12.51 +0.076 | |
| 2004 |
| 12.58 +0.072 | |
| 2005 |
| 12.64 +0.062 | |
| 2006 |
| 12.70 +0.059 | |
| 2007 |
| 12.75 +0.055 | |
| 2008 |
| 12.80 +0.049 | |
| 2009 |
| 12.85 +0.049 | |
| 2010 |
| Global funding seizure | 12.21 −0.638 |
| 2011 |
| 12.29 +0.075 | |
| 2012 |
| 12.35 +0.066 | |
| 2013 |
| 12.42 +0.064 | |
| 2014 |
| 12.48 +0.061 | |
| 2015 |
| 12.54 +0.061 | |
| 2016 |
| 12.61 +0.067 | |
| 2017 |
| 12.67 +0.063 | |
| 2018 |
| 12.73 +0.056 | |
| 2019 |
| 12.78 +0.057 | |
| 2020 |
| Severe pandemic | 12.42 −0.366 |
| 2021 |
| 12.48 +0.066 | |
| 2022 |
| Regional war spillover | 12.32 −0.159 |
| 2023 |
| Breadbasket failure | 12.24 −0.084 |
| 2024 |
| 12.28 +0.040 | |
| 2025 |
| 12.31 +0.032 | |
| 2026 |
| 12.34 +0.031 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 1996 | 2001 | 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | 2021 | 2026 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 4 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| National Security | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Human Capital | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Governance & Integrity | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Financial Strength | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Production & Innovation | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Trade & Investment | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds, this one among them: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −2.261 | −157.8 | −5.00 |
| No shocks | +1.424 | +98.9 | +2.00 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.001 | −0.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.013 | −1.2 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.011 | −0.9 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.018 | −1.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.688 | +47.0 | +1.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.461 | +32.6 | +1.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.236 | +17.2 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 1996 | 2026 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 6.89 | 14.13 | +7.24 | +8.51 | 0.00 | −1.32 | +0.06 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.51 | 20.00 | +6.49 | +7.73 | 0.00 | −0.87 | +0.16 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 13.27 | 19.63 | +6.36 | +7.33 | 0.00 | −1.56 | +0.59 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 11.43 | 17.54 | +6.11 | +9.37 | 0.00 | −3.32 | +0.06 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 11.06 | 17.00 | +5.94 | +6.84 | 0.00 | −1.01 | +0.10 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 9.87 | 15.66 | +5.79 | +7.62 | 0.00 | −1.77 | −0.07 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 12.16 | 17.65 | +5.49 | +8.72 | 0.00 | −3.25 | +0.03 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 14.24 | 19.37 | +5.13 | +5.64 | 0.00 | −1.36 | +0.85 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 13.56 | 18.59 | +5.03 | +7.42 | 0.00 | −2.83 | +0.44 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.81 | 17.61 | +3.80 | +3.03 | 0.00 | −1.09 | +1.86 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 12.44 | 16.20 | +3.76 | +4.45 | 0.00 | −0.68 | −0.01 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 16.70 | 20.00 | +3.30 | +6.05 | 0.00 | −1.80 | +0.81 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.38 | 16.65 | +3.27 | +3.19 | 0.00 | −1.11 | +1.20 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.97 | 18.19 | +3.22 | +4.09 | 0.00 | −1.25 | +0.37 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 12.53 | 15.53 | +3.00 | +3.67 | 0.00 | −0.76 | +0.10 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 15.81 | 18.47 | +2.66 | +3.63 | 0.00 | −1.02 | +0.06 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 13.20 | 14.46 | +1.26 | +3.35 | 0.00 | −2.50 | +0.42 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 11.80 | 12.75 | +0.95 | +2.42 | 0.00 | −1.62 | +0.14 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.15 | 13.00 | +0.85 | +1.67 | 0.00 | −0.97 | +0.16 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 14.42 | 14.89 | +0.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.56 | +1.02 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 13.83 | 13.66 | −0.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.08 | +0.90 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.97 | 12.71 | −0.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.16 | +0.91 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 12.36 | 12.08 | −0.28 | +2.62 | 0.00 | −2.92 | +0.02 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 0.36 | 0.01 | −0.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.69 | +0.01 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 12.89 | 12.54 | −0.35 | +2.12 | 0.00 | −2.55 | +0.08 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 13.95 | 13.56 | −0.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.78 | +0.38 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 13.49 | 13.09 | −0.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.28 | +0.88 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 13.39 | 12.96 | −0.43 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.79 | +0.36 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 12.04 | 11.49 | −0.55 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.81 | +0.26 |
| Land Power | National Security | 15.74 | 15.17 | −0.57 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.54 | −0.02 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 12.82 | 12.24 | −0.58 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.83 | +0.25 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 11.61 | 11.00 | −0.61 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.81 | +0.20 |
| Air Power | National Security | 16.27 | 15.65 | −0.62 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.54 | −0.09 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 13.55 | 12.93 | −0.62 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.56 | −0.06 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 10.49 | 9.81 | −0.68 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.59 | −0.08 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.33 | 10.63 | −0.70 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.04 | +0.34 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 15.86 | 15.10 | −0.76 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.79 | +0.03 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 13.36 | 12.59 | −0.77 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.00 | +0.23 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 7.57 | 6.78 | −0.79 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.62 | −0.17 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.22 | 11.38 | −0.84 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.40 | +0.57 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 15.40 | 14.47 | −0.93 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.85 | −0.07 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 13.95 | 12.99 | −0.96 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.91 | −0.05 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 12.41 | 11.43 | −0.98 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.94 | −0.03 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 11.97 | 10.96 | −1.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.95 | −0.06 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 9.63 | 8.57 | −1.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.17 | +0.10 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 14.43 | 13.34 | −1.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.16 | +0.08 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 12.85 | 11.73 | −1.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.83 | −0.29 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 15.37 | 14.19 | −1.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.17 | 0.00 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 8.63 | 7.43 | −1.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.19 | −0.02 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.11 | 11.89 | −1.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.16 | −0.06 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 4.18 | 2.96 | −1.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.27 | +0.05 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.92 | 9.69 | −1.23 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.29 | +0.06 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 4.34 | 3.09 | −1.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.26 | +0.02 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 5.86 | 4.60 | −1.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.24 | −0.02 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 7.34 | 6.06 | −1.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.21 | −0.08 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 9.10 | 7.80 | −1.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.27 | −0.04 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 7.89 | 6.58 | −1.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.20 | −0.12 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 15.24 | 13.91 | −1.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.18 | −0.16 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 11.67 | 10.30 | −1.37 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.79 | +0.41 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 8.46 | 7.09 | −1.37 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.19 | −0.18 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 12.91 | 11.33 | −1.58 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.36 | −0.22 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 9.45 | 7.79 | −1.66 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.64 | −0.01 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 12.68 | 10.96 | −1.72 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.76 | +0.04 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 12.42 | 10.63 | −1.79 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.68 | −0.10 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 11.43 | 9.46 | −1.97 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.79 | −0.18 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 14.93 | 12.83 | −2.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.06 | −0.05 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 8.42 | 6.29 | −2.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.97 | −0.17 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 14.16 | 11.92 | −2.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.06 | +0.82 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 13.20 | 10.93 | −2.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.10 | −0.16 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 13.69 | 11.40 | −2.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.76 | +0.47 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 10.35 | 8.05 | −2.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.18 | −0.13 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 12.01 | 9.46 | −2.55 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.72 | +0.17 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 10.79 | 8.01 | −2.78 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.47 | −0.31 |
Seed 3 of experiment cycle-002.e4-grc. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.