E4 · cycle-002.e4-hun

Hungary, scripted, 30 years from 1996

30 simulations of 30 rounds from the 1996 position. Hungary decides by the scripted method; scripted events: Market access opening in year 8, Global funding seizure in year 12, Severe pandemic in year 24, Trade bloc rupture in year 26.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seeds 1–30 · elasticity sampled within each bracket

The same configuration in other cycles: cycle 3.

Every simulation · Compare with another experiment · More experiments like this

Not a forecast

Simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values, to compare methods and test the model. Other nations stay at their 2026 ratings throughout.

Outcome across simulations

The median at 2026, with the 10th to the 90th percentile of the 30 simulations under it.

Capability index: 11.04 (+0.19); From 10.85; 11.03 to 11.05
Rank by index: 36; From 36; 36 to 36
Domains at Tier 1: 3; From 0; 3 to 3
Tier rank: 5; From 39; 5 to 5

Capability index by round

Rank by index, by round

Every objective at the position and at the horizon
Objective	1996	10th percentile	Median	90th percentile	Better
Capability indexprimary	10.85	11.03	11.04	11.05	higher
Rank by index	36	36	36	36	lower
Tier rank	39	5	5	5	lower
Domains at Tier 1	0	3	3	3	higher
Score sum	781.7	796.4	797.2	798.1	higher
Goal-weighted score	781.7	796.4	797.2	798.1	higher
Resilient score	781.7	797.3 (mean score sum over the simulations)			higher

The capability index is the mean of the three dimensions, each the mean of its domains, each the mean of its groups. Tiers are Pareto layers within each domain; the tier rank orders nations by domains held at Tier 1, then Tier 2, and so on. The goal-weighted score is the score sum unless the experiment sets a goal. The primary objective is the one the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it.

Credits

What each round’s credits went on in the median simulation. Across all simulations, build took 51 per cent, buy took 0 per cent, partner took 49 per cent of the 1,612 credits a simulation spent on actions.

Against history

Started from a reconstructed 1996 position and played along the pathway and shocks Hungary actually had, then scored against the 2026 ratings. The position is an estimate, so part of any error is the reconstruction's. The calibration summary across all fifty nations is on the cycle's page under Loop.

Index 1996: 10.85; reconstructed
Observed 2026: 10.52; the Index's rating
Simulated 2026: 11.05; 11.00 to 11.09
Skill against persistence: −0.90; group error 1.76 against 0.92 if nothing changed

Domain	1996	Observed	Simulated	Bias	Direction
Critical Technology	8.00	6.75	6.97 7.0–7.0	+0.22	right
Strategic Infrastructure	11.87	11.31	13.11 13.0–13.2	+1.80	wrong
National Security	7.12	6.75	6.78 6.7–6.8	+0.03	right
Human Capital	13.13	12.80	14.65 14.6–14.7	+1.85	wrong
Information & Influence	10.88	10.30	11.02 11.0–11.0	+0.72	wrong
Governance & Integrity	12.41	11.14	13.16 13.1–13.2	+2.02	wrong
Financial Strength	10.87	11.62	10.59 10.5–10.6	−1.03	wrong
Production & Innovation	11.25	11.80	10.89 10.9–10.9	−0.91	wrong
Trade & Investment	12.14	12.17	12.24 12.2–12.3	+0.08	right

The history it was played under: shocks and events

2004 · S12 × 1 Hungary joined the European Union, gaining full single-market access, structural funds and deeper integration into EU value chains.
2008 · S02 × 0.8 The global financial crisis triggered a balance-of-payments and banking crisis in Hungary, requiring an IMF/EU/World Bank loan in 2008.
2020 · S10 × 0.9 The COVID-19 pandemic caused high excess mortality and strained hospitals, despite large fiscal and vaccine responses.
2022 · S01 × 0.7 Russia's invasion of Ukraine and EU sanctions ruptured energy and trade ties, forcing Hungary to seek exemptions and alternative supplies.

The pathway: what it prioritised, period by period

1997–2004 · partner · 5% each NATO (1999) and EU (2004) accession drove institutional harmonisation, macro-economic stabilisation and upgrading of pan-European transport corridors. (Alliances & Security Cooperation, Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance, Trade Policy & Market Access, Government Effectiveness & Public Administration, Transport Infrastructure)
2005–2010 · build · 2% each EU structural funds and domestic reform efforts targeted transport and rural development, public administration and the early shift toward innovation-led growth. (Transport Infrastructure, Agriculture & Food Infrastructure, Population Health, Innovation & Commercialisation, Government Effectiveness & Public Administration)
2011–2015 · build · 2% each The post-2010 government pursued fiscal consolidation through sectoral levies, recentralised the state and promoted national industrial and energy champions. (Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance, Energy Infrastructure, Industrial & Sectoral Base, Government Effectiveness & Public Administration, Financial System Depth & Access)
2016–2019 · build · 2% each Border security and migration control dominated, while family, digital and SME policies sought demographic and productivity gains. (Internal Security & Order, Population Health, Communications & Digital Infrastructure, Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship, Trade Facilitation & Logistics)
2020–2022 · build · 5% each COVID-19 forced emergency health spending, vaccine procurement and digital public services, supported by EU recovery funds and fiscal expansion. (Population Health, Health System Capability, Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance, Digital & AI Competence, Trade Policy & Market Access)
2023–2026 · partner · 2% each Russia's war in Ukraine drove defence modernisation, energy diversification and industrial resilience efforts, pursued partly through NATO and EU cooperation. (Force Generation & Mobilisation, Energy Infrastructure, Advanced Materials & Manufacturing, Trade Policy & Market Access, National Resilience & Crisis Management)

Reconstruction notes (deepseek-v4-pro): The 1996 baseline scores rely on retrospective data and a subjective relative scale, so individual capability levels are uncertain, especially in critical technologies and national security where data are sparse or classified. Political priority periods are simplified and may understate contested domestic agendas, particularly after 2010. Hungary's transition position is well documented at the macro level, giving medium confidence to most economic, governance and human-capital scores.

Report

Written from the simulation record by the loop's narrator. Every figure names the query it came from, in square brackets.

Batch cycle-002. Model 0.1.0, graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.0. 30 simulations, seeds 1 to 30; probes on 10. Every figure is a distribution over simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values; it shows what the model implies under these settings, not what will happen. Other nations are frozen at their 2026 ratings. No reconstructed historical data is used in this experiment.

Headline

Hungary played 30 rounds from 1996 under the scripted method, with scripted events, 30 times. Its capability index moved from 10.85 to a median of 11.04 (+0.19), with 90 per cent of simulations between 11.03 and 11.06 [experiment_objectives].

Starting position

In 1996 the nation ranks 36 on the index against the frozen field, holds 0 of nine domains at Tier 1 and has a tier rank of 39. Its base income is 312 credits a year, calibrated so that its 2026 position is affordable with headroom for investment.

What was decided

A simulation spent a median of 1,612 credits on moves. The five groups that took most were Trade Policy & Market Access (partner, 158 credits, 9.8 per cent); Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance (partner, 131 credits, 8.1 per cent); Transport Infrastructure (partner, 131 credits, 8.1 per cent); Government Effectiveness & Public Administration (partner, 131 credits, 8.1 per cent); Alliances & Security Cooperation (partner, 131 credits, 8.1 per cent) [experiment_decisions_by_group]. By mode: build 51 per cent, partner 49 per cent [experiment_decisions_by_group]. Concentration of spending (HHI) had a median of 0.087, and the most repeated action appeared in 43 per cent of rounds.

The leading domain by period: rounds 1 to 5, Trade & Investment; rounds 6 to 10, Strategic Infrastructure; rounds 11 to 15, Strategic Infrastructure; rounds 16 to 20, Financial Strength; rounds 21 to 25, Human Capital; rounds 26 to 30, Human Capital [experiment_spend_by_period].

What the world did

A median simulation saw 3 shocks and 1 upside events. The most damaging per firing were S10 (30 firings in 30 simulations, −36.5 points each); S02 (30 firings in 30 simulations, −26.2 points each); S01 (30 firings in 30 simulations, −26.2 points each) [experiment_shocks]. Upside events fired 30 times across all simulations [experiment_shocks].

The groups that lost most to shocks, per simulation: Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance −2.65; Labour & Employment −2.50; Monetary & Currency Capability −2.43; Investment Attraction & Projection −2.27 [experiment_shock_damage_by_group].

The edges that carried most change through the graph, per simulation: Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance to Social Infrastructure (+0.91 points); Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance to Force Generation & Mobilisation (+0.65 points); Transport Infrastructure to Trade Facilitation & Logistics (+0.91 points) [experiment_propagation_by_edge].

Where it ended

At 2026 the median rank is 36 (5th to 95th percentile 36 to 36), the median count of Tier 1 domains 3 (3 to 3) and the median tier rank 5; the resilient score, the mean score sum over simulations, is 797 [experiment_objectives].

Tier 1 probability changed most in: governance and integrity (0 to 100 per cent of simulations); strategic infrastructure (0 to 100 per cent of simulations); trade and investment (0 to 100 per cent of simulations) [experiment_tiers_by_round].

Why

Without shocks the index ends +1.426 higher on average, so the shocks cost about 1.426 index points [experiment_probe_attribution].

Holding instead of following this method changes the index by −1.298: that is the method's worth against doing nothing [experiment_probe_attribution].

Removing any single one of the five largest actions changes the index by between −0.020 and −0.004, for example 2021 build Population Health (19 credits) [experiment_probe_attribution]. The largest actions by credits come late, when income is highest, and are rarely the most valuable.

Removing the largest shock of a simulation raises the index by +0.587 on average [experiment_probe_attribution].

The replay probe reproduces the simulations exactly (index change 0.000000), so the attributions are clean [experiment_probe_attribution].

Surprises

tier_jump (warn): largest gain in one domain within five years: 6 tiers (30 simulations above 2).

saturation_low (warn): 100% of simulations end with a group at 0 that did not start there (median 1 groups).

retired_words (warn): e4-hun/report.md: 'simulations' 2 time(s), first near line 39; use 'simulations'.

The simulation furthest from the median (seed 18) ends −0.03 from it, with 3 shocks and 1 upside events [experiment_outlier_simulations].

Comparison

This is the baseline (hold) experiment, or there is none for this nation in the batch.

Against history: from a reconstructed index of 10.85 the model ends at 11.05, where the 2026 ratings put it at 10.51. Group scores miss by 1.76 points on average, against 0.92 for assuming nothing changed (skill −0.90); the change in each domain has the right sign in 33 per cent of domains. Furthest below history: financial strength (−1.03); furthest above: governance and integrity (+2.02) [experiment_against_history]. The starting position is reconstructed, so part of the error is the reconstruction's.

What each decision and shock was worth

Counterfactual probes on the first 10 seeds: the same simulations with one thing changed, paired seed by seed. A removed decision or shock is taken out and the other decisions replayed unchanged, so the difference is that item's worth.

Probe	Index	Score sum	Tier 1	For example
Hold instead of the method	−1.298	−90.4	−3.00
No shocks	+1.426	+98.6	+2.00
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0	0.00
Without the 1st largest decision	−0.010	−0.8	0.00	2021 build Population Health (19 credits)
Without the 2nd largest decision	−0.011	−0.9	0.00	2021 build Health System Capability (19 credits)
Without the 3rd largest decision	−0.015	−0.9	0.00	2021 build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance (19 credits)
Without the 4th largest decision	−0.020	−1.6	0.00	2021 build Digital & AI Competence (19 credits)
Without the 5th largest decision	−0.004	−0.2	0.00	2021 build Trade Policy & Market Access (19 credits)
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.587	+41.4	0.00	2020 S10 (-36.5 points)
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.477	+32.4	0.00	2008 S02 (-26.2 points)
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.429	+29.5	0.00	2022 S01 (-26.1 points)

Simulations

Three simulations told round by round, each on its own page: the one nearest the median index at the horizon, and those nearest the 10th and the 90th percentile. Every one of the 30 is listed with its outcome on the simulations page.

All 30 simulations

Events

How often each shock and upside event began across the simulations. Shocks come from the ten downside scenarios and upside events from the ten upside ones, at their yearly likelihood.

Event	Kind	Simulations	Mean round	Points
Trade bloc rupture S01	Shock	100 per cent	26.0	−26.1
Global funding seizure S02	Shock	100 per cent	12.0	−26.2
Severe pandemic S10	Shock	100 per cent	24.0	−36.5
Market access opening S12	Upside	100 per cent	8.0	+30.0

Groups across simulations

Every capability group: its position, and its median and spread at the horizon across the simulations, with what the method spent on it.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	1996	2026	Change	Levels invested	Credits
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	11.95	18.61 18.59 to 18.63	+6.66	8.76	131
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.58	19.21 19.11 to 19.35	+6.63	5.63	176
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	13.33	19.39 19.35 to 19.41	+6.06	9.40	213
Population Health	Human Capital	10.93	16.73 16.68 to 16.76	+5.80	6.13	129
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	13.92	19.01 18.98 to 19.08	+5.09	5.18	211
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	11.43	16.46 16.38 to 16.53	+5.03	7.48	222
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	12.06	16.82 16.80 to 16.85	+4.76	4.77	55
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.81	14.33 14.26 to 14.38	+2.52	2.03	62
Health System Capability	Human Capital	12.63	14.86 14.72 to 14.99	+2.23	2.42	55
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	12.28	13.85 13.68 to 14.10	+1.57	1.80	30
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	13.50	14.97 14.95 to 15.02	+1.47	1.55	45
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.81	14.06 14.04 to 14.07	+1.25	1.41	30
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	11.25	12.42 12.41 to 12.44	+1.17	1.96	45
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	10.89	11.80 11.65 to 11.97	+0.91	0.85	27
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	13.02	13.92 13.89 to 13.95	+0.90	1.20	30
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	13.05	13.85 13.62 to 14.03	+0.80	0.00	0
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	12.78	13.57 13.44 to 13.72	+0.79	0.68	27
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	11.35	12.05 12.04 to 12.06	+0.70	1.54	30
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	12.29	12.98 12.94 to 13.03	+0.69	1.75	35
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.97	13.57 13.42 to 13.77	+0.60	0.00	0
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	15.05	15.50 15.34 to 15.66	+0.45	0.00	0
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	13.50	13.94 13.92 to 13.96	+0.44	0.00	0
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	9.16	9.36 9.35 to 9.37	+0.20	1.58	27
Advanced Education	Human Capital	13.95	14.09 14.01 to 14.15	+0.14	0.00	0
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	10.98	11.11 11.10 to 11.11	+0.13	1.84	35
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	12.15	12.26 12.23 to 12.30	+0.11	0.00	0
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	13.61	13.69 13.62 to 13.75	+0.08	0.00	0
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	7.42	7.45 7.35 to 7.54	+0.03	0.00	0
Foundational Education	Human Capital	15.27	15.26 15.16 to 15.37	−0.01	0.00	0
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	12.54	12.49 12.44 to 12.57	−0.05	0.00	0
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	10.40	10.23 10.19 to 10.26	−0.17	0.00	0
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	11.19	10.98 10.97 to 10.99	−0.21	0.00	0
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	8.71	8.46 8.41 to 8.54	−0.25	0.00	0
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	12.68	12.42 12.41 to 12.43	−0.26	0.00	0
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	11.97	11.71 11.70 to 11.71	−0.26	0.00	0
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	12.41	12.15 12.15 to 12.15	−0.26	0.00	0
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	9.10	8.83 8.81 to 8.85	−0.27	0.00	0
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	9.63	9.30 9.20 to 9.36	−0.33	0.00	0
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	0.36	0.00 0.00 to 0.00	−0.36	0.00	0
Air Power	National Security	8.54	8.12 8.10 to 8.17	−0.42	0.00	0
Land Power	National Security	10.93	10.45 10.43 to 10.48	−0.48	0.00	0
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	9.31	8.76 8.74 to 8.78	−0.55	0.00	0
Maritime Power	National Security	2.50	1.94 1.93 to 1.94	−0.56	0.00	0
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	12.66	12.07 12.03 to 12.10	−0.59	0.00	0
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	5.70	5.08 5.06 to 5.10	−0.62	0.00	0
Space Operations	National Security	4.58	3.94 3.91 to 3.96	−0.64	0.00	0
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.96	12.31 12.23 to 12.36	−0.65	0.00	0
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	10.37	9.51 9.49 to 9.55	−0.86	0.00	0
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	7.42	6.52 6.49 to 6.54	−0.90	0.00	0
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	7.11	6.20 6.14 to 6.24	−0.91	0.00	0
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	10.75	9.83 9.81 to 9.85	−0.92	0.00	0
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	12.67	11.73 11.72 to 11.73	−0.94	0.00	0
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	10.49	9.52 9.51 to 9.53	−0.97	0.00	0
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	11.81	10.83 10.81 to 10.85	−0.98	0.00	0
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	5.24	4.24 4.22 to 4.26	−1.00	0.00	0
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	4.69	3.63 3.62 to 3.63	−1.06	0.00	0
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	7.33	6.22 6.20 to 6.26	−1.11	0.00	0
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	8.46	7.31 7.27 to 7.36	−1.15	0.00	0
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	7.98	6.81 6.76 to 6.86	−1.17	0.00	0
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	10.88	9.61 9.55 to 9.65	−1.27	0.00	0
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	13.22	11.87 11.85 to 11.88	−1.35	0.00	0
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	12.37	10.97 10.91 to 11.04	−1.40	0.00	0
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	8.03	6.59 6.57 to 6.62	−1.44	0.00	0
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	11.63	10.18 10.16 to 10.20	−1.45	0.00	0
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	5.30	3.82 3.81 to 3.82	−1.48	0.00	0
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	11.43	9.87 9.86 to 9.88	−1.56	0.00	0
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	12.08	10.51 10.45 to 10.57	−1.57	0.00	0
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	10.78	9.14 9.11 to 9.17	−1.64	0.00	0
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	13.70	11.97 11.95 to 11.99	−1.73	0.00	0
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	11.13	9.25 9.20 to 9.28	−1.88	0.00	0
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	10.34	8.41 8.36 to 8.46	−1.93	0.00	0
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	11.57	9.60 9.46 to 9.69	−1.97	0.00	0
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	10.81	8.82 8.79 to 8.86	−1.99	0.00	0

Checks

The automated checks run on this experiment before anything was written about it. A warning is a candidate finding for the improvement loop.

passcredits_conservedlargest gap between credits in and credits accounted for: 1.1e-13
passscores_in_boundsscores range 0.000 to 20.000
passno_nans0 missing values in the trajectory and objectives
passprobe_replay_reproducesthe recorded moves played back reproduce the simulation to within 0.0e+00 points (10 simulations)
passledger_balancesthe edge ledger sums to the propagated change to within 1.1e-06 points
passmove_without_shocklargest one-year move in a group with no shock landing: 1.67 points; 0% of simulations have one above 3
warntier_jumplargest gain in one domain within five years: 6 tiers (30 simulations above 2)
passall_tier1_from_outside_top10starting rank 36; 0 simulations reach Tier 1 in all nine domains
passsaturation_high0% of simulations end with a group at 20 that did not start there (median 0 groups)
warnsaturation_low100% of simulations end with a group at 0 that did not start there (median 1 groups)
passspend_concentrationmedian concentration of spending across groups (HHI) 0.087; most funded group economic.financial_strength.fiscal_capacity_and_public_finance
passsame_actionthe most repeated move (group and mode) appears in a median 43% of rounds

Settings and versions

Experiment cycle-002.e4-hun. Every simulation records the model, graph and parameter versions, the scenario, the method and its seed, so it can be reproduced exactly.

Nation: Hungary (HUN)
Position: A reconstructed 1996 position, aligned to the Index's scale
Method: Scripted. Actions fixed in advance by the experiment: for a backcast, the nation's historical pathway.
Scenario: Scripted events: Market access opening in year 8, Global funding seizure in year 12, Severe pandemic in year 24, Trade bloc rupture in year 26
Objective: Capability index, the primary objective the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it
Horizon: 30 rounds, 1996 to 2026
Simulations: 30 seeds, 1 to 30. Every method in the batch faces the same draws for the same seed.
Graph elasticities: Drawn for each simulation, uniformly within each edge’s bracket
Income: Base credits 311.9 a round, moving with the economic groups
Versions: Model 0.1.0, Capability Dependency Graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.0
Batch: Backcast 1996-2026 (cycle-002), cycle 2 of the improvement loop
Runtime: 4.0 seconds in all; 976 microseconds a round

Not a forecast: Every figure is a distribution over the simulations of a structural model, reported to compare methods and test the model. None is a prediction of what a nation will do or become.
Structural parameters: Costs, decay, vulnerability and credits are structural seed values with low or medium confidence, set by domain with single-group exceptions. Five groups have no defensible value in a single-nation model and are flagged in the parameter tables.
Other nations are frozen: One nation is simulated at a time. Every other nation stays at its 2026 rating, so rank and tiers are measured against a still field; where the simulated nation rises past others their own tiers are not re-sorted.
Starting depth and mode are defaults: The position is the National Capability Index ratings. How institutionalised each capability is, and how much was built, bought or partnered, have no data behind them yet and start from structural defaults.
Credits are calibrated, not measured: Each nation’s income is set so that its position is affordable with headroom that rises with its fiscal capacity. It is not yet fiscal capacity as a share of GDP.