Simulation 22
Hungary, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 22: a poor simulation (10th percentile) of the experiment's 30. Capability index 10.85 at the 1996 position, 11.03 in 2026; 150 actions over 30 rounds and 3 shocks.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 22
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 23 (median simulation), 5 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 1996 position to 2026.
- Capability index
- 11.03 (+0.18)
- From 10.85
- Rank by index
- 36
- From 36
- Domains at Tier 1
- 3
- From 0
- Events
- 3 shocks
- 1 upside event
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1997 |
| 10.89 +0.039 | |
| 1998 |
| 10.97 +0.078 | |
| 1999 |
| 11.05 +0.080 | |
| 2000 |
| 11.13 +0.076 | |
| 2001 |
| 11.20 +0.069 | |
| 2002 |
| 11.25 +0.059 | |
| 2003 |
| 11.30 +0.044 | |
| 2004 |
| Market access opening | 11.46 +0.166 |
| 2005 |
| 11.63 +0.163 | |
| 2006 |
| 11.79 +0.160 | |
| 2007 |
| 11.82 +0.030 | |
| 2008 |
| Global funding seizure | 11.45 −0.366 |
| 2009 |
| 11.47 +0.023 | |
| 2010 |
| 11.49 +0.017 | |
| 2011 |
| 11.51 +0.020 | |
| 2012 |
| 11.53 +0.022 | |
| 2013 |
| 11.56 +0.024 | |
| 2014 |
| 11.58 +0.027 | |
| 2015 |
| 11.61 +0.025 | |
| 2016 |
| 11.64 +0.027 | |
| 2017 |
| 11.66 +0.029 | |
| 2018 |
| 11.69 +0.027 | |
| 2019 |
| 11.72 +0.030 | |
| 2020 |
| Severe pandemic | 11.24 −0.485 |
| 2021 |
| 11.27 +0.033 | |
| 2022 |
| Trade bloc rupture | 11.18 −0.091 |
| 2023 |
| 11.09 −0.091 | |
| 2024 |
| 10.99 −0.093 | |
| 2025 |
| 11.02 +0.021 | |
| 2026 |
| 11.03 +0.018 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 1996 | 2001 | 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | 2021 | 2026 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| National Security | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| Human Capital | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| Information & Influence | 6 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Governance & Integrity | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Financial Strength | 14 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| Production & Innovation | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Trade & Investment | 7 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −1.298 | −90.4 | −3.00 |
| No shocks | +1.426 | +98.6 | +2.00 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.010 | −0.8 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.011 | −0.9 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.015 | −0.9 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.020 | −1.6 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.004 | −0.2 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.587 | +41.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.477 | +32.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.429 | +29.5 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 1996 | 2026 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.58 | 19.35 | +6.77 | +5.57 | 0.00 | +0.30 | +0.90 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 11.95 | 18.61 | +6.66 | +8.76 | 0.00 | −1.02 | −0.11 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 13.33 | 19.38 | +6.05 | +9.40 | 0.00 | −1.25 | −0.13 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 10.93 | 16.69 | +5.76 | +6.13 | 0.00 | −0.42 | +0.07 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 13.92 | 18.98 | +5.06 | +5.20 | 0.00 | −0.26 | +0.13 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 11.43 | 16.45 | +5.02 | +7.48 | 0.00 | −2.40 | −0.05 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 12.06 | 16.80 | +4.74 | +4.78 | 0.00 | −0.17 | +0.13 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.81 | 14.34 | +2.53 | +2.04 | 0.00 | +0.33 | +0.16 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 12.63 | 14.79 | +2.16 | +2.42 | 0.00 | −0.69 | +0.43 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.50 | 14.93 | +1.43 | +1.55 | 0.00 | −0.14 | +0.03 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 12.28 | 13.64 | +1.36 | +1.84 | 0.00 | −1.24 | +0.75 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.81 | 14.07 | +1.26 | +1.42 | 0.00 | −0.16 | 0.00 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 11.25 | 12.40 | +1.15 | +1.96 | 0.00 | −0.85 | +0.04 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 12.78 | 13.68 | +0.90 | +0.68 | 0.00 | −0.54 | +0.76 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 13.02 | 13.90 | +0.88 | +1.20 | 0.00 | −0.23 | −0.09 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 10.89 | 11.74 | +0.85 | +0.86 | 0.00 | −0.50 | +0.49 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 12.29 | 13.03 | +0.74 | +1.75 | 0.00 | −1.21 | +0.21 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 11.35 | 12.06 | +0.71 | +1.54 | 0.00 | −0.89 | +0.06 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.05 | 13.57 | +0.52 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.43 | +0.95 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.97 | 13.44 | +0.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.18 | +0.65 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 13.50 | 13.91 | +0.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.34 | +0.07 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 15.05 | 15.42 | +0.37 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.14 | +0.51 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 9.16 | 9.36 | +0.20 | +1.58 | 0.00 | −1.40 | +0.03 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 13.95 | 14.09 | +0.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.15 | +0.29 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 10.98 | 11.12 | +0.14 | +1.84 | 0.00 | −1.70 | −0.01 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 12.15 | 12.28 | +0.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.02 | +0.11 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 13.61 | 13.65 | +0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.16 | +0.20 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 15.27 | 15.22 | −0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.48 | +0.43 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 7.42 | 7.36 | −0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.23 | +0.17 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.54 | 12.46 | −0.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.18 | +0.10 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 10.40 | 10.24 | −0.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.29 | +0.13 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 8.71 | 8.50 | −0.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.52 | +0.30 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 11.19 | 10.97 | −0.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.18 | −0.04 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 9.10 | 8.85 | −0.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.21 | −0.03 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 12.41 | 12.15 | −0.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.26 | 0.00 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 12.68 | 12.41 | −0.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.26 | −0.01 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 11.97 | 11.70 | −0.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.27 | +0.01 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 9.63 | 9.33 | −0.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.51 | +0.21 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 0.36 | 0.00 | −0.36 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.59 | −0.05 |
| Air Power | National Security | 8.54 | 8.10 | −0.44 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.52 | +0.08 |
| Land Power | National Security | 10.93 | 10.43 | −0.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.50 | 0.00 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 2.50 | 1.94 | −0.56 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.57 | +0.01 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 9.31 | 8.74 | −0.57 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.52 | −0.05 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 12.66 | 12.06 | −0.60 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.71 | +0.12 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 5.70 | 5.08 | −0.62 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.55 | −0.07 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.96 | 12.33 | −0.63 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.41 | −0.22 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 4.58 | 3.91 | −0.67 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.56 | −0.12 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 10.37 | 9.55 | −0.82 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.96 | +0.14 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 7.42 | 6.50 | −0.92 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.02 | +0.10 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 10.75 | 9.82 | −0.93 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.96 | +0.03 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 7.11 | 6.18 | −0.93 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.04 | +0.10 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 12.67 | 11.73 | −0.94 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.95 | +0.01 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 11.81 | 10.86 | −0.95 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.94 | −0.01 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 10.49 | 9.52 | −0.97 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.99 | +0.02 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 5.24 | 4.23 | −1.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.07 | +0.06 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 4.69 | 3.62 | −1.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.08 | +0.01 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 7.33 | 6.25 | −1.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.03 | −0.05 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 8.46 | 7.33 | −1.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.00 | −0.13 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 7.98 | 6.84 | −1.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.01 | −0.13 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 10.88 | 9.65 | −1.23 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.46 | +0.23 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 13.22 | 11.88 | −1.34 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.29 | −0.06 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 11.63 | 10.20 | −1.43 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.37 | −0.07 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 8.03 | 6.59 | −1.44 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.34 | −0.10 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 12.37 | 10.91 | −1.46 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.67 | +0.21 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 5.30 | 3.82 | −1.48 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.50 | +0.02 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 11.43 | 9.88 | −1.55 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.53 | −0.02 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 10.78 | 9.17 | −1.61 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.71 | +0.10 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 12.08 | 10.43 | −1.65 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.76 | +0.11 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 13.70 | 11.96 | −1.74 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.80 | +0.07 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 11.13 | 9.25 | −1.88 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.79 | −0.09 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 10.34 | 8.41 | −1.93 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.73 | −0.20 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 11.57 | 9.60 | −1.97 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.18 | +0.21 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 10.81 | 8.81 | −2.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.01 | +0.01 |
Seed 22 of experiment cycle-002.e4-hun. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.