A good simulation (90th percentile) · cycle-002.e4-ita

Simulation 1

Italy, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 1: a good simulation (90th percentile) of the experiment's 30. Capability index 14.51 at the 1996 position, 14.56 in 2026; 172 actions over 30 rounds and 5 shocks.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 1

The experiment · The other representative simulations: 5 (median simulation), 4 (a poor simulation (10th percentile))

Outcome

From the 1996 position to 2026.

Capability index: 14.56 (+0.05); From 14.51
Rank by index: 15; From 16
Domains at Tier 1: 5; From 0
Events: 5 shocks; 0 upside events

Trajectory by domain

The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.

ShockUpside event

Capability index by round

Pathway, round by round

Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.

Round	Decision	Events	Index
1997	Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 32 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 32 Build Financial System Depth & Access 32 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 32 Buy Air Power 13 Buy Maritime Power 13 Buy Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 13 Buy Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure 13		14.54 +0.034
1998	Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 32 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 32 Build Financial System Depth & Access 32 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 32 Buy Air Power 13 Buy Maritime Power 13 Buy Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 13 Buy Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure 13		14.61 +0.067
1999	Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 33 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 33 Build Financial System Depth & Access 33 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 33 Buy Air Power 13 Buy Maritime Power 13 Buy Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 13 Buy Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure 13		14.70 +0.090
2000	Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 34 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 34 Build Financial System Depth & Access 34 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 34 Buy Air Power 13 Buy Maritime Power 13 Buy Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 13 Buy Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure 13		14.79 +0.091
2001	Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 35 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 35 Build Financial System Depth & Access 35 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 35 Buy Air Power 14 Buy Maritime Power 14 Buy Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 14 Buy Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure 14 Build Transport Infrastructure 35 Build Advanced Manufacturing 35 Build Economic Output & Productivity 35		14.89 +0.100
2002	Buy Air Power 15 Buy Maritime Power 15 Buy Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 15 Buy Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure 15 Build Transport Infrastructure 36 Build Advanced Manufacturing 36 Build Economic Output & Productivity 36		14.97 +0.087
2003	Buy Air Power 15 Buy Maritime Power 15 Buy Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 15 Buy Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure 15 Build Transport Infrastructure 38 Build Advanced Manufacturing 38 Build Economic Output & Productivity 38		15.07 +0.091
2004	Buy Air Power 16 Buy Maritime Power 16 Buy Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 16 Buy Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure 16 Build Transport Infrastructure 39 Build Advanced Manufacturing 39 Build Economic Output & Productivity 39		15.15 +0.086
2005	Build Transport Infrastructure 41 Build Advanced Manufacturing 41 Build Economic Output & Productivity 41		15.21 +0.061
2006	Build Transport Infrastructure 42 Build Advanced Manufacturing 42 Build Economic Output & Productivity 42 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 17 Build Digital & AI Competence 17 Build Technology Adoption & Diffusion 17 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 17		15.25 +0.034
2007	Build Transport Infrastructure 43 Build Advanced Manufacturing 43 Build Economic Output & Productivity 43 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 17 Build Digital & AI Competence 17 Build Technology Adoption & Diffusion 17 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 17		15.29 +0.038
2008	Build Transport Infrastructure 43 Build Advanced Manufacturing 43 Build Economic Output & Productivity 43 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 17 Build Digital & AI Competence 17 Build Technology Adoption & Diffusion 17 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 17 Build Financial Stability & Crisis Management 43 Build Financial Regulation & Integrity 26	Global funding seizure	15.12 −0.164
2009	Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 17 Build Digital & AI Competence 17 Build Technology Adoption & Diffusion 17 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 17 Build Financial Stability & Crisis Management 43 Build Financial Regulation & Integrity 35	Core disaster	15.08 −0.042
2010	Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 17 Build Digital & AI Competence 17 Build Technology Adoption & Diffusion 17 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 17 Build Financial Stability & Crisis Management 42 Build Financial Regulation & Integrity 42		15.18 +0.095
2011	Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 17 Build Digital & AI Competence 17 Build Technology Adoption & Diffusion 17 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 17 Build Financial Stability & Crisis Management 41 Build Financial Regulation & Integrity 31	Global funding seizure	14.95 −0.221
2012	Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 17 Build Digital & AI Competence 17 Build Technology Adoption & Diffusion 17 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 17 Build Financial Stability & Crisis Management 41 Build Financial Regulation & Integrity 27		15.02 +0.068
2013	Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 16 Build Digital & AI Competence 16 Build Technology Adoption & Diffusion 16 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 16 Build Financial Stability & Crisis Management 40 Build Financial Regulation & Integrity 5		15.05 +0.024
2014	Build Financial Stability & Crisis Management 40 Build Financial Regulation & Integrity 40 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 14		15.06 +0.015
2015	Build Advanced Manufacturing 16 Build Innovation & Commercialisation 16 Build Technology Adoption & Diffusion 16 Build Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 16 Build Digital & AI Competence 16 Partner Maritime Power 6		15.08 +0.017
2016	Build Advanced Manufacturing 16 Build Innovation & Commercialisation 16 Build Technology Adoption & Diffusion 16 Build Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 16 Build Digital & AI Competence 16 Partner Maritime Power 0		15.10 +0.016
2017	Build Advanced Manufacturing 16 Build Innovation & Commercialisation 16 Build Technology Adoption & Diffusion 16 Build Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 16 Build Digital & AI Competence 15		15.12 +0.024
2018	Build Advanced Manufacturing 16 Build Innovation & Commercialisation 16 Build Technology Adoption & Diffusion 16 Build Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 16 Build Digital & AI Competence 12		15.14 +0.022
2019	Build Advanced Manufacturing 16 Build Innovation & Commercialisation 16 Build Technology Adoption & Diffusion 16 Build Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 16 Build Digital & AI Competence 10		15.16 +0.022
2020	Partner Maritime Power 16 Partner Internal Security & Order 16 Partner Alliances & Security Cooperation 16 Partner Intelligence & Assessment 16 Build Energy Infrastructure 9	Severe pandemic	14.70 −0.460
2021	Build Energy Infrastructure 40 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 40 Build Health System Capability 40 Build Transport Infrastructure 2		14.73 +0.033
2022	Build Energy Infrastructure 39 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 39 Build Health System Capability 36	Trade bloc rupture	14.67 −0.064
2023	Build Energy Infrastructure 25		14.60 −0.069
2024	Build Energy Infrastructure 32		14.53 −0.070
2025	Build Energy Infrastructure 34 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 34 Build Health System Capability 34 Build Transport Infrastructure 31		14.54 +0.012
2026	Build Energy Infrastructure 38 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 38 Build Health System Capability 38 Build Transport Infrastructure 15		14.56 +0.014

Credits

What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.

Tiers by round

Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.

Domain	1996					2001					2006					2011					2016					2021					2026
Critical Technology	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5
Strategic Infrastructure	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
National Security	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Human Capital	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Information & Influence	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	4	2	2	2	2	2	2
Governance & Integrity	7	7	7	7	6	3	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Financial Strength	6	5	3	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Production & Innovation	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Trade & Investment	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	3	4	4	5	5	5	5	5

Probes

What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds, this one among them: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.

Probe	Index	Score sum	Tier 1
Hold instead of the method	−2.115	−147.1	−5.00
No shocks	+1.252	+87.0	0.00
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0	0.00
Without the 1st largest decision	−0.003	−0.3	0.00
Without the 2nd largest decision	+0.008	+0.4	0.00
Without the 3rd largest decision	+0.006	+0.3	0.00
Without the 4th largest decision	+0.002	−0.0	0.00
Without the 5th largest decision	−0.003	−0.4	0.00
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.466	+32.0	0.00
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.280	+18.6	0.00
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.258	+18.0	0.00

Every group over the simulation

Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	1996	2026	Change	Invested	Events	Graph
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	13.39	19.98	+6.59	+10.12	−0.67	+0.27
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	13.92	19.42	+5.50	+7.52	−1.22	+0.13
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	14.70	19.68	+4.98	+7.05	−1.47	+0.67
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	13.82	18.48	+4.66	+5.57	−1.04	+0.13
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	15.35	19.73	+4.38	+7.04	−0.86	+0.39
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	15.04	19.31	+4.27	+6.49	−2.25	+0.19
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	15.04	18.91	+3.87	+7.55	−1.98	+0.34
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.31	20.00	+3.69	+5.20	−0.80	−0.10
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	13.26	16.88	+3.62	+5.51	−2.65	+0.76
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	15.83	19.30	+3.47	+7.23	−2.20	+0.33
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	15.91	18.82	+2.91	+3.08	−0.53	+0.35
Air Power	National Security	15.72	18.53	+2.81	+3.20	−0.53	+0.14
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	17.29	19.96	+2.67	+5.32	−0.75	−0.07
Health System Capability	Human Capital	16.16	18.50	+2.34	+3.47	−1.48	+0.35
Maritime Power	National Security	17.08	19.37	+2.29	+2.65	−0.51	+0.15
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.70	18.95	+2.25	+2.64	−0.91	+0.58
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	14.99	17.03	+2.04	+3.58	−1.60	+0.07
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	15.95	17.77	+1.82	+4.46	−2.20	−0.03
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	15.37	16.94	+1.57	+3.05	−1.61	+0.13
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	16.45	17.67	+1.22	+4.07	−2.29	+0.26
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	15.02	15.22	+0.20	+0.72	−0.50	−0.03
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	16.34	16.47	+0.13	+1.34	−1.26	+0.05
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	12.85	12.95	+0.10	0.00	−0.52	+0.62
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	14.41	14.27	−0.14	0.00	−1.03	+0.89
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.08	15.80	−0.28	0.00	−1.27	+0.99
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	12.68	12.31	−0.37	+0.68	−0.93	−0.12
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	15.62	15.21	−0.41	0.00	−1.22	+0.80
Land Power	National Security	14.14	13.70	−0.44	0.00	−0.51	+0.08
Space Operations	National Security	13.55	13.10	−0.45	0.00	−0.52	+0.07
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	13.46	12.98	−0.48	0.00	−0.52	+0.04
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	11.66	11.09	−0.57	0.00	−0.53	−0.03
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	3.75	3.13	−0.62	0.00	−0.60	−0.01
Advanced Education	Human Capital	14.31	13.64	−0.67	0.00	−0.81	+0.15
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	15.18	14.49	−0.69	0.00	−0.80	+0.11
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.32	15.58	−0.74	0.00	−1.21	+0.47
Foundational Education	Human Capital	14.55	13.74	−0.81	0.00	−1.17	+0.36
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	14.56	13.72	−0.84	0.00	−0.81	−0.03
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	11.61	10.76	−0.85	0.00	−0.85	−0.01
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	16.80	15.92	−0.88	0.00	−0.77	−0.11
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	13.09	12.20	−0.89	0.00	−1.31	+0.42
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	11.73	10.84	−0.89	0.00	−0.94	+0.05
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	14.66	13.75	−0.91	0.00	−0.88	−0.02
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	13.29	12.33	−0.96	0.00	−1.05	+0.09
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	12.80	11.84	−0.96	0.00	−0.92	−0.04
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	12.68	11.70	−0.98	0.00	−0.92	−0.06
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	12.32	11.32	−1.00	0.00	−0.93	−0.07
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	14.58	13.54	−1.04	0.00	−1.17	+0.12
Population Health	Human Capital	16.18	15.13	−1.05	0.00	−1.14	+0.09
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.29	11.15	−1.14	0.00	−0.91	−0.23
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	12.98	11.82	−1.16	0.00	−1.20	+0.04
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	14.65	13.49	−1.16	0.00	−1.17	0.00
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	10.62	9.42	−1.20	0.00	−1.25	+0.04
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	12.16	10.90	−1.26	0.00	−1.30	+0.03
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	16.29	15.02	−1.27	0.00	−1.99	+0.71
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	15.37	14.09	−1.28	0.00	−1.27	−0.01
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	17.85	16.55	−1.30	0.00	−1.23	−0.07
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	12.43	11.12	−1.31	0.00	−1.21	−0.09
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	13.49	12.18	−1.31	0.00	−1.19	−0.13
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	12.55	11.18	−1.37	0.00	−1.47	+0.10
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	15.00	13.60	−1.40	0.00	−1.41	+0.01
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	15.03	13.56	−1.47	0.00	−1.54	+0.07
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	16.98	15.25	−1.73	0.00	−2.05	+0.32
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	14.79	12.87	−1.92	0.00	−1.69	−0.22
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	14.88	12.95	−1.93	0.00	−1.84	−0.09
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	12.37	10.37	−2.00	0.00	−1.82	−0.18
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	13.16	11.11	−2.05	0.00	−2.01	−0.04
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	14.92	12.67	−2.25	0.00	−2.87	+0.62
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	17.32	14.92	−2.40	0.00	−2.27	−0.14
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	15.73	13.24	−2.49	0.00	−2.31	−0.18
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	16.78	14.19	−2.59	0.00	−2.28	−0.31
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	14.41	11.75	−2.66	0.00	−2.35	−0.30
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	13.05	10.29	−2.76	0.00	−3.04	+0.28
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	14.09	11.19	−2.90	0.00	−2.94	+0.04

Seed 1 of experiment cycle-002.e4-ita. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.