A poor simulation (10th percentile) · cycle-002.e4-ita

Simulation 4

Italy, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 4: a poor simulation (10th percentile) of the experiment's 30. Capability index 14.51 at the 1996 position, 14.53 in 2026; 172 actions over 30 rounds and 5 shocks.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 4

The experiment · The other representative simulations: 5 (median simulation), 1 (a good simulation (90th percentile))

Outcome

From the 1996 position to 2026.

Capability index: 14.53 (+0.02); From 14.51
Rank by index: 15; From 16
Domains at Tier 1: 5; From 0
Events: 5 shocks; 0 upside events

Trajectory by domain

The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.

ShockUpside event

Capability index by round

Pathway, round by round

Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.

Round	Decision	Events	Index
1997	Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 32 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 32 Build Financial System Depth & Access 32 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 32 Buy Air Power 13 Buy Maritime Power 13 Buy Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 13 Buy Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure 13		14.54 +0.034
1998	Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 32 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 32 Build Financial System Depth & Access 32 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 32 Buy Air Power 13 Buy Maritime Power 13 Buy Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 13 Buy Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure 13		14.61 +0.067
1999	Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 33 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 33 Build Financial System Depth & Access 33 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 33 Buy Air Power 13 Buy Maritime Power 13 Buy Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 13 Buy Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure 13		14.70 +0.091
2000	Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 34 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 34 Build Financial System Depth & Access 34 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 34 Buy Air Power 13 Buy Maritime Power 13 Buy Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 13 Buy Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure 13		14.79 +0.092
2001	Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 35 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 35 Build Financial System Depth & Access 35 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 35 Buy Air Power 14 Buy Maritime Power 14 Buy Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 14 Buy Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure 14 Build Transport Infrastructure 35 Build Advanced Manufacturing 35 Build Economic Output & Productivity 35		14.89 +0.100
2002	Buy Air Power 15 Buy Maritime Power 15 Buy Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 15 Buy Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure 15 Build Transport Infrastructure 36 Build Advanced Manufacturing 36 Build Economic Output & Productivity 36		14.98 +0.088
2003	Buy Air Power 15 Buy Maritime Power 15 Buy Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 15 Buy Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure 15 Build Transport Infrastructure 38 Build Advanced Manufacturing 38 Build Economic Output & Productivity 38		15.07 +0.092
2004	Buy Air Power 16 Buy Maritime Power 16 Buy Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 16 Buy Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure 16 Build Transport Infrastructure 39 Build Advanced Manufacturing 39 Build Economic Output & Productivity 39		15.15 +0.086
2005	Build Transport Infrastructure 41 Build Advanced Manufacturing 41 Build Economic Output & Productivity 41		15.22 +0.062
2006	Build Transport Infrastructure 42 Build Advanced Manufacturing 42 Build Economic Output & Productivity 42 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 17 Build Digital & AI Competence 17 Build Technology Adoption & Diffusion 17 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 17		15.25 +0.034
2007	Build Transport Infrastructure 42 Build Advanced Manufacturing 42 Build Economic Output & Productivity 42 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 17 Build Digital & AI Competence 17 Build Technology Adoption & Diffusion 17 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 17		15.29 +0.039
2008	Build Transport Infrastructure 42 Build Advanced Manufacturing 42 Build Economic Output & Productivity 42 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 17 Build Digital & AI Competence 17 Build Technology Adoption & Diffusion 17 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 17 Build Financial Stability & Crisis Management 41	Global funding seizure	15.12 −0.171
2009	Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 17 Build Digital & AI Competence 17 Build Technology Adoption & Diffusion 17 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 17 Build Financial Stability & Crisis Management 42 Build Financial Regulation & Integrity 28	Core disaster	15.07 −0.051
2010	Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 17 Build Digital & AI Competence 17 Build Technology Adoption & Diffusion 17 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 17 Build Financial Stability & Crisis Management 41 Build Financial Regulation & Integrity 35		15.15 +0.084
2011	Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 16 Build Digital & AI Competence 16 Build Technology Adoption & Diffusion 16 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 16 Build Financial Stability & Crisis Management 41 Build Financial Regulation & Integrity 26	Global funding seizure	14.92 −0.235
2012	Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 16 Build Digital & AI Competence 16 Build Technology Adoption & Diffusion 16 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 16 Build Financial Stability & Crisis Management 41 Build Financial Regulation & Integrity 23		14.98 +0.066
2013	Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 16 Build Digital & AI Competence 16 Build Technology Adoption & Diffusion 16 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 16 Build Financial Stability & Crisis Management 39 Build Financial Regulation & Integrity 6		15.01 +0.026
2014	Build Financial Stability & Crisis Management 39 Build Financial Regulation & Integrity 39 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 17		15.03 +0.018
2015	Build Advanced Manufacturing 16 Build Innovation & Commercialisation 16 Build Technology Adoption & Diffusion 16 Build Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 16 Build Digital & AI Competence 16 Partner Maritime Power 11		15.05 +0.020
2016	Build Advanced Manufacturing 16 Build Innovation & Commercialisation 16 Build Technology Adoption & Diffusion 16 Build Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 16 Build Digital & AI Competence 16 Partner Maritime Power 6		15.07 +0.022
2017	Build Advanced Manufacturing 16 Build Innovation & Commercialisation 16 Build Technology Adoption & Diffusion 16 Build Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 16 Build Digital & AI Competence 16 Partner Maritime Power 3		15.09 +0.024
2018	Build Advanced Manufacturing 16 Build Innovation & Commercialisation 16 Build Technology Adoption & Diffusion 16 Build Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 16 Build Digital & AI Competence 14		15.12 +0.022
2019	Build Advanced Manufacturing 16 Build Innovation & Commercialisation 16 Build Technology Adoption & Diffusion 16 Build Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 16 Build Digital & AI Competence 11		15.14 +0.022
2020	Partner Maritime Power 16 Partner Internal Security & Order 16 Partner Alliances & Security Cooperation 16 Partner Intelligence & Assessment 16 Build Energy Infrastructure 9	Severe pandemic	14.68 −0.461
2021	Build Energy Infrastructure 40 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 40 Build Health System Capability 40 Build Transport Infrastructure 1		14.71 +0.032
2022	Build Energy Infrastructure 38 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 38 Build Health System Capability 36	Trade bloc rupture	14.64 −0.065
2023	Build Energy Infrastructure 25		14.57 −0.068
2024	Build Energy Infrastructure 31		14.51 −0.070
2025	Build Energy Infrastructure 34 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 34 Build Health System Capability 34 Build Transport Infrastructure 31		14.52 +0.011
2026	Build Energy Infrastructure 38 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 38 Build Health System Capability 38 Build Transport Infrastructure 15		14.53 +0.014

Credits

What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.

Tiers by round

Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.

Domain	1996					2001					2006					2011					2016					2021					2026
Critical Technology	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5
Strategic Infrastructure	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
National Security	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Human Capital	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Information & Influence	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	4	2	2	2	2	2	2
Governance & Integrity	7	7	7	7	6	3	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Financial Strength	6	5	3	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Production & Innovation	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Trade & Investment	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	4	4	5	5	5	5	5

Probes

What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds, this one among them: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.

Probe	Index	Score sum	Tier 1
Hold instead of the method	−2.115	−147.1	−5.00
No shocks	+1.252	+87.0	0.00
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0	0.00
Without the 1st largest decision	−0.003	−0.3	0.00
Without the 2nd largest decision	+0.008	+0.4	0.00
Without the 3rd largest decision	+0.006	+0.3	0.00
Without the 4th largest decision	+0.002	−0.0	0.00
Without the 5th largest decision	−0.003	−0.4	0.00
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.466	+32.0	0.00
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.280	+18.6	0.00
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.258	+18.0	0.00

Every group over the simulation

Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	1996	2026	Change	Invested	Events	Graph
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	13.39	19.98	+6.59	+10.14	−0.67	+0.34
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	13.92	19.44	+5.52	+7.51	−1.23	+0.01
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	14.70	19.67	+4.97	+7.03	−1.48	+0.67
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	13.82	18.43	+4.61	+5.55	−1.04	+0.10
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	15.35	19.67	+4.32	+6.94	−0.86	+0.51
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	15.04	18.93	+3.89	+7.54	−2.00	+0.41
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.31	20.00	+3.69	+5.20	−0.80	−0.16
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	15.04	18.54	+3.50	+5.58	−2.31	+0.23
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	15.83	19.28	+3.45	+7.10	−2.22	+0.37
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	13.26	16.65	+3.39	+5.62	−2.67	+0.44
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	15.91	18.80	+2.89	+3.07	−0.53	+0.35
Air Power	National Security	15.72	18.60	+2.88	+3.19	−0.53	+0.22
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	17.29	20.00	+2.71	+5.31	−0.76	−0.04
Maritime Power	National Security	17.08	19.50	+2.42	+2.77	−0.51	+0.16
Health System Capability	Human Capital	16.16	18.51	+2.35	+3.41	−1.49	+0.43
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.70	18.85	+2.15	+2.63	−0.92	+0.54
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	14.99	17.04	+2.05	+3.53	−1.62	+0.13
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	15.95	17.71	+1.76	+4.46	−2.22	−0.06
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	15.37	16.98	+1.61	+3.02	−1.62	+0.20
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	16.45	17.60	+1.15	+4.05	−2.32	+0.35
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	15.02	15.20	+0.18	+0.72	−0.50	−0.05
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	16.34	16.39	+0.05	+1.34	−1.27	−0.02
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.08	15.97	−0.11	0.00	−1.27	+1.16
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	12.85	12.70	−0.15	0.00	−0.52	+0.36
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	14.41	14.24	−0.17	0.00	−1.04	+0.86
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	15.62	15.29	−0.33	0.00	−1.23	+0.89
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	12.68	12.29	−0.39	+0.67	−0.93	−0.12
Space Operations	National Security	13.55	13.07	−0.48	0.00	−0.52	+0.04
Land Power	National Security	14.14	13.64	−0.50	0.00	−0.51	+0.02
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	13.46	12.94	−0.52	0.00	−0.52	0.00
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	11.66	11.10	−0.56	0.00	−0.53	−0.03
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	3.75	3.13	−0.62	0.00	−0.60	−0.01
Advanced Education	Human Capital	14.31	13.57	−0.74	0.00	−0.81	+0.07
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	15.18	14.43	−0.75	0.00	−0.80	+0.05
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	13.09	12.31	−0.78	0.00	−1.32	+0.54
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	11.61	10.81	−0.80	0.00	−0.85	+0.05
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.32	15.46	−0.86	0.00	−1.22	+0.37
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	14.56	13.70	−0.86	0.00	−0.81	−0.05
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	16.80	15.91	−0.89	0.00	−0.78	−0.12
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	13.29	12.38	−0.91	0.00	−1.06	+0.15
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	14.66	13.74	−0.92	0.00	−0.89	−0.02
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	11.73	10.79	−0.94	0.00	−0.95	+0.01
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	14.58	13.63	−0.95	0.00	−1.17	+0.22
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	12.68	11.70	−0.98	0.00	−0.93	−0.05
Foundational Education	Human Capital	14.55	13.56	−0.99	0.00	−1.18	+0.18
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	12.32	11.33	−0.99	0.00	−0.94	−0.05
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	12.80	11.81	−0.99	0.00	−0.93	−0.06
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.29	11.23	−1.06	0.00	−0.92	−0.14
Population Health	Human Capital	16.18	15.08	−1.10	0.00	−1.14	+0.04
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	12.98	11.82	−1.16	0.00	−1.21	+0.04
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	14.65	13.46	−1.19	0.00	−1.17	−0.02
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	13.49	12.22	−1.27	0.00	−1.20	−0.08
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	15.03	13.76	−1.27	0.00	−1.55	+0.28
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	10.62	9.34	−1.28	0.00	−1.25	−0.03
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	12.43	11.14	−1.29	0.00	−1.22	−0.07
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	15.37	14.08	−1.29	0.00	−1.28	−0.01
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	12.16	10.86	−1.30	0.00	−1.30	0.00
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	17.85	16.52	−1.33	0.00	−1.24	−0.09
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	15.00	13.60	−1.40	0.00	−1.42	+0.02
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	12.55	11.15	−1.40	0.00	−1.48	+0.08
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	16.29	14.82	−1.47	0.00	−2.01	+0.53
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	16.98	15.32	−1.66	0.00	−2.06	+0.40
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	14.79	12.87	−1.92	0.00	−1.71	−0.21
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	14.88	12.92	−1.96	0.00	−1.85	−0.11
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	12.37	10.33	−2.04	0.00	−1.83	−0.21
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	13.16	11.10	−2.06	0.00	−2.02	−0.04
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	14.92	12.75	−2.17	0.00	−2.88	+0.72
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	17.32	14.94	−2.38	0.00	−2.28	−0.10
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	15.73	13.22	−2.51	0.00	−2.33	−0.18
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	16.78	14.23	−2.55	0.00	−2.29	−0.25
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	14.41	11.73	−2.68	0.00	−2.37	−0.32
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	13.05	10.12	−2.93	0.00	−3.07	+0.14
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	14.09	11.13	−2.96	0.00	−2.98	+0.02

Seed 4 of experiment cycle-002.e4-ita. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.