E4 · cycle-002.e4-ita

Italy, scripted, 30 years from 1996

30 simulations of 30 rounds from the 1996 position. Italy decides by the scripted method; scripted events: Global funding seizure in year 12, Core disaster in year 13, Global funding seizure in year 15, Severe pandemic in year 24, Trade bloc rupture in year 26.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seeds 1–30 · elasticity sampled within each bracket

The same configuration in other cycles: cycle 3.

Every simulation · Compare with another experiment · More experiments like this

Not a forecast

Simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values, to compare methods and test the model. Other nations stay at their 2026 ratings throughout.

Outcome across simulations

The median at 2026, with the 10th to the 90th percentile of the 30 simulations under it.

Capability index: 14.55 (+0.04); From 14.51; 14.53 to 14.56
Rank by index: 15; From 16; 15 to 15
Domains at Tier 1: 5; From 0; 5 to 5
Tier rank: 3; From 19; 3 to 3

Capability index by round

Rank by index, by round

Every objective at the position and at the horizon
Objective	1996	10th percentile	Median	90th percentile	Better
Capability indexprimary	14.51	14.53	14.55	14.56	higher
Rank by index	16	15	15	15	lower
Tier rank	19	3	3	3	lower
Domains at Tier 1	0	5	5	5	higher
Score sum	1051.7	1055.0	1056.0	1056.8	higher
Goal-weighted score	1051.7	1055.0	1056.0	1056.8	higher
Resilient score	1051.7	1055.9 (mean score sum over the simulations)			higher

The capability index is the mean of the three dimensions, each the mean of its domains, each the mean of its groups. Tiers are Pareto layers within each domain; the tier rank orders nations by domains held at Tier 1, then Tier 2, and so on. The goal-weighted score is the score sum unless the experiment sets a goal. The primary objective is the one the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it.

Credits

What each round’s credits went on in the median simulation. Across all simulations, build took 87 per cent, buy took 11 per cent, partner took 2 per cent of the 4,107 credits a simulation spent on actions.

Against history

Started from a reconstructed 1996 position and played along the pathway and shocks Italy actually had, then scored against the 2026 ratings. The position is an estimate, so part of any error is the reconstruction's. The calibration summary across all fifty nations is on the cycle's page under Loop.

Index 1996: 14.51; reconstructed
Observed 2026: 13.72; the Index's rating
Simulated 2026: 14.54; 14.48 to 14.61
Skill against persistence: −0.90; group error 2.08 against 1.10 if nothing changed

Domain	1996	Observed	Simulated	Bias	Direction
Critical Technology	13.16	12.99	11.85 11.8–11.9	−1.14	wrong
Strategic Infrastructure	15.32	14.46	16.73 16.7–16.8	+2.26	wrong
National Security	13.31	12.20	13.89 13.8–13.9	+1.69	wrong
Human Capital	14.75	13.66	15.09 15.1–15.1	+1.43	wrong
Information & Influence	15.43	14.61	14.32 14.3–14.4	−0.29	right
Governance & Integrity	13.13	13.50	13.10 13.1–13.2	−0.40	wrong
Financial Strength	14.82	13.87	16.79 16.7–16.9	+2.93	wrong
Production & Innovation	14.99	13.45	15.85 15.8–15.9	+2.39	wrong
Trade & Investment	15.65	14.75	13.27 13.2–13.3	−1.48	right

The history it was played under: shocks and events

2008 · S02 × 0.8 The Lehman collapse and global credit freeze hit Italian banks, exports and small firms, triggering a deep recession.
2009 · S07 × 0.5 The L'Aquila earthquake devastated central Italy, killing more than 300 people and displacing tens of thousands.
2011 · S02 × 1.1 The euro-area sovereign debt crisis drove Italian government bond yields above 7 per cent, forcing emergency austerity and a technocratic government.
2020 · S10 × 1.3 COVID-19 made Italy the first Western epicentre, overwhelming hospitals in Lombardy and prompting a prolonged national lockdown and deep economic contraction.
2022 · S01 × 0.8 Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the resulting EU-Russia trade and energy rupture caused severe gas and electricity price shocks for Italian industry and households.

The pathway: what it prioritised, period by period

1997–2001 · build · 5% each Italy pursued Maastricht convergence through deficit reduction, pension and public finance reforms and large privatisations to qualify for euro entry in 1999. (Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance, Monetary & Currency Capability, Financial System Depth & Access, Government Effectiveness & Public Administration)
1997–2004 · buy · 2% each Italy procured Eurofighter Typhoon and renewed naval and amphibious capabilities through European defence industrial programmes. (Air Power, Maritime Power, Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment, Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure)
2001–2008 · build · 5% each Italy built the Alta Velocita high-speed rail network linking Turin, Milan, Florence, Rome and Naples and upgraded strategic road and port corridors. (Transport Infrastructure, Advanced Manufacturing, Economic Output & Productivity)
2006–2013 · build · 2% each Successive digital agendas promoted broadband rollout, e-government services and digital literacy to close Italy's digital gap. (Communications & Digital Infrastructure, Digital & AI Competence, Technology Adoption & Diffusion, Government Effectiveness & Public Administration)
2008–2014 · build · 5% each The global financial crisis and euro-area sovereign debt crisis forced bank recapitalisation, fiscal austerity and structural reforms under emergency governments. (Financial Stability & Crisis Management, Financial Regulation & Integrity, Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance, Economic Output & Productivity)
2014–2019 · build · 2% each The Piano Industria 4.0 used hyper-depreciation and tax credits to boost investment in machinery, robotics and digital manufacturing technologies. (Advanced Manufacturing, Innovation & Commercialisation, Technology Adoption & Diffusion, Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship, Digital & AI Competence)
2015–2020 · partner · 2% each Italy responded to the Libya and Mediterranean migration crises through naval operations, coast guard reinforcement and EU-NATO security cooperation. (Maritime Power, Internal Security & Order, Alliances & Security Cooperation, Intelligence & Assessment)
2020–2026 · build · 5% each The EU-funded National Recovery and Resilience Plan channelled about 235 billion euro into green transition, digitalisation, health resilience and infrastructure modernisation. (Energy Infrastructure, Communications & Digital Infrastructure, Health System Capability, Transport Infrastructure, Government Effectiveness & Public Administration)

Reconstruction notes (deepseek-v4-pro): The main uncertainties concern Italy's high-technology and defence-industrial scores, where nominal participation in programmes can overstate operational capability relative to 1996 frontier leaders. Governance and public-administration scores are especially sensitive to North-South regional variation, the informal economy and the long shadow of Tangentopoli. The mapping of the 2011 sovereign debt crisis and the 2022 energy shock to the event library is approximate but captures their severe national impact.

Report

Written from the simulation record by the loop's narrator. Every figure names the query it came from, in square brackets.

Batch cycle-002. Model 0.1.0, graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.0. 30 simulations, seeds 1 to 30; probes on 10. Every figure is a distribution over simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values; it shows what the model implies under these settings, not what will happen. Other nations are frozen at their 2026 ratings. No reconstructed historical data is used in this experiment.

Headline

Italy played 30 rounds from 1996 under the scripted method, with scripted events, 30 times. Its capability index moved from 14.51 to a median of 14.55 (+0.04), with 90 per cent of simulations between 14.53 and 14.56 [experiment_objectives].

Starting position

In 1996 the nation ranks 16 on the index against the frozen field, holds 0 of nine domains at Tier 1 and has a tier rank of 19. Its base income is 642 credits a year, calibrated so that its 2026 position is affordable with headroom for investment.

What was decided

A simulation spent a median of 4,109 credits on moves. The five groups that took most were Advanced Manufacturing (build, 396 credits, 9.6 per cent); Transport Infrastructure (build, 365 credits, 8.9 per cent); Economic Output & Productivity (build, 316 credits, 7.7 per cent); Government Effectiveness & Public Administration (build, 299 credits, 7.3 per cent); Financial Stability & Crisis Management (build, 288 credits, 7.0 per cent) [experiment_decisions_by_group]. By mode: build 87 per cent, buy 11 per cent, partner 2 per cent [experiment_decisions_by_group]. Concentration of spending (HHI) had a median of 0.059, and the most repeated action appeared in 43 per cent of rounds.

The leading domain by period: rounds 1 to 5, Financial Strength; rounds 6 to 10, Strategic Infrastructure; rounds 11 to 15, Financial Strength; rounds 16 to 20, Financial Strength; rounds 21 to 25, Production & Innovation; rounds 26 to 30, Strategic Infrastructure [experiment_spend_by_period].

What the world did

A median simulation saw 5 shocks and 0 upside events. The most damaging per firing were S10 (30 firings in 30 simulations, −35.4 points each); S02 (60 firings in 30 simulations, −18.4 points each); S01 (30 firings in 30 simulations, −16.6 points each) [experiment_shocks].

The groups that lost most to shocks, per simulation: Labour & Employment −3.06; Investment Attraction & Projection −2.96; Trade Facilitation & Logistics −2.88; Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance −2.67 [experiment_shock_damage_by_group].

The edges that carried most change through the graph, per simulation: Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance to Social Infrastructure (+0.73 points); Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance to Force Generation & Mobilisation (+0.49 points); Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance to Transport Infrastructure (+0.45 points) [experiment_propagation_by_edge].

Where it ended

At 2026 the median rank is 15 (5th to 95th percentile 15 to 15), the median count of Tier 1 domains 5 (5 to 5) and the median tier rank 3; the resilient score, the mean score sum over simulations, is 1,056 [experiment_objectives].

Tier 1 probability changed most in: financial strength (0 to 100 per cent of simulations); governance and integrity (0 to 100 per cent of simulations); human capital (0 to 100 per cent of simulations); production and innovation (0 to 100 per cent of simulations); strategic infrastructure (0 to 100 per cent of simulations) [experiment_tiers_by_round].

Why

Without shocks the index ends +1.252 higher on average, so the shocks cost about 1.252 index points [experiment_probe_attribution].

Holding instead of following this method changes the index by −2.115: that is the method's worth against doing nothing [experiment_probe_attribution].

Removing any single one of the five largest actions changes the index by between −0.003 and +0.008, for example 2009 build Financial Stability & Crisis Management (43 credits) [experiment_probe_attribution]. The largest actions by credits come late, when income is highest, and are rarely the most valuable.

Removing the largest shock of a simulation raises the index by +0.466 on average [experiment_probe_attribution].

The replay probe reproduces the simulations exactly (index change 0.000000), so the attributions are clean [experiment_probe_attribution].

Surprises

tier_jump (warn): largest gain in one domain within five years: 6 tiers (30 simulations above 2).

saturation_high (warn): 100% of simulations end with a group at 20 that did not start there (median 1 groups).

retired_words (warn): e4-ita/report.md: 'simulations' 2 time(s), first near line 39; use 'simulations'.

The simulation furthest from the median (seed 21) ends −0.02 from it, with 5 shocks and 0 upside events [experiment_outlier_simulations].

Comparison

This is the baseline (hold) experiment, or there is none for this nation in the batch.

Against history: from a reconstructed index of 14.51 the model ends at 14.54, where the 2026 ratings put it at 13.72. Group scores miss by 2.08 points on average, against 1.10 for assuming nothing changed (skill −0.90); the change in each domain has the right sign in 22 per cent of domains. Furthest below history: trade and investment (−1.48); furthest above: financial strength (+2.93) [experiment_against_history]. The starting position is reconstructed, so part of the error is the reconstruction's.

What each decision and shock was worth

Counterfactual probes on the first 10 seeds: the same simulations with one thing changed, paired seed by seed. A removed decision or shock is taken out and the other decisions replayed unchanged, so the difference is that item's worth.

Probe	Index	Score sum	Tier 1	For example
Hold instead of the method	−2.115	−147.1	−5.00
No shocks	+1.252	+87.0	0.00
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0	0.00
Without the 1st largest decision	−0.003	−0.3	0.00	2009 build Financial Stability & Crisis Management (43 credits)
Without the 2nd largest decision	+0.008	+0.4	0.00	2008 build Transport Infrastructure (43 credits)
Without the 3rd largest decision	+0.006	+0.3	0.00	2008 build Advanced Manufacturing (43 credits)
Without the 4th largest decision	+0.002	−0.0	0.00	2008 build Economic Output & Productivity (43 credits)
Without the 5th largest decision	−0.003	−0.4	0.00	2008 build Financial Stability & Crisis Management (43 credits)
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.466	+32.0	0.00	2020 S10 (-35.3 points)
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.280	+18.6	0.00	2011 S02 (-20.6 points)
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.258	+18.0	0.00	2022 S01 (-16.6 points)

Simulations

Three simulations told round by round, each on its own page: the one nearest the median index at the horizon, and those nearest the 10th and the 90th percentile. Every one of the 30 is listed with its outcome on the simulations page.

All 30 simulations

Events

How often each shock and upside event began across the simulations. Shocks come from the ten downside scenarios and upside events from the ten upside ones, at their yearly likelihood.

Event	Kind	Simulations	Mean round	Points
Trade bloc rupture S01	Shock	100 per cent	26.0	−16.6
Global funding seizure S02	Shock	100 per cent	13.5	−18.4
Core disaster S07	Shock	100 per cent	13.0	−9.1
Severe pandemic S10	Shock	100 per cent	24.0	−35.4

Groups across simulations

Every capability group: its position, and its median and spread at the horizon across the simulations, with what the method spent on it.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	1996	2026	Change	Levels invested	Credits
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	13.39	19.97 19.97 to 19.98	+6.58	10.16	204
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	13.92	19.43 19.42 to 19.44	+5.51	7.52	299
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	14.70	19.66 19.64 to 19.68	+4.96	7.04	213
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	13.82	18.48 18.43 to 18.53	+4.66	5.59	217
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	15.35	19.65 19.58 to 19.71	+4.30	6.93	365
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	15.04	18.94 18.53 to 19.31	+3.90	6.07	181
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	15.04	18.90 18.85 to 18.99	+3.86	7.55	316
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.31	20.00 20.00 to 20.00	+3.69	5.20	283
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	13.26	16.78 16.68 to 16.88	+3.52	5.57	182
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	15.83	19.31 19.29 to 19.33	+3.48	7.17	288
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	15.91	18.80 18.74 to 18.89	+2.89	3.08	112
Air Power	National Security	15.72	18.59 18.53 to 18.63	+2.87	3.19	112
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	17.29	19.96 19.91 to 20.00	+2.67	5.31	396
Health System Capability	Human Capital	16.16	18.54 18.46 to 18.63	+2.38	3.44	148
Maritime Power	National Security	17.08	19.45 19.38 to 19.51	+2.37	2.71	141
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.70	18.89 18.83 to 18.94	+2.19	2.64	112
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	14.99	17.03 17.00 to 17.07	+2.04	3.56	80
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	15.95	17.74 17.71 to 17.75	+1.79	4.46	166
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	15.37	16.94 16.89 to 17.03	+1.57	3.04	80
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	16.45	17.62 17.57 to 17.70	+1.17	4.06	166
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	15.02	15.21 15.19 to 15.23	+0.19	0.72	16
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	16.34	16.39 16.36 to 16.46	+0.05	1.34	16
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	12.85	12.84 12.71 to 12.97	−0.01	0.00	0
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.08	15.89 15.70 to 16.06	−0.19	0.00	0
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	14.41	14.09 13.97 to 14.23	−0.32	0.00	0
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	12.68	12.30 12.27 to 12.33	−0.38	0.68	16
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	13.46	13.05 12.96 to 13.16	−0.41	0.00	0
Land Power	National Security	14.14	13.69 13.65 to 13.73	−0.45	0.00	0
Space Operations	National Security	13.55	13.09 13.04 to 13.16	−0.46	0.00	0
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	15.62	15.11 14.95 to 15.29	−0.51	0.00	0
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	11.66	11.09 11.08 to 11.13	−0.57	0.00	0
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	3.75	3.13 3.13 to 3.14	−0.62	0.00	0
Advanced Education	Human Capital	14.31	13.64 13.58 to 13.69	−0.67	0.00	0
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	15.18	14.46 14.39 to 14.51	−0.72	0.00	0
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	13.09	12.28 12.18 to 12.40	−0.81	0.00	0
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	11.61	10.79 10.75 to 10.82	−0.82	0.00	0
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.32	15.49 15.40 to 15.59	−0.83	0.00	0
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	14.56	13.72 13.70 to 13.73	−0.84	0.00	0
Foundational Education	Human Capital	14.55	13.68 13.61 to 13.75	−0.87	0.00	0
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	16.80	15.91 15.89 to 15.95	−0.89	0.00	0
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	11.73	10.82 10.77 to 10.87	−0.91	0.00	0
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	13.29	12.33 12.30 to 12.39	−0.96	0.00	0
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	14.66	13.70 13.69 to 13.74	−0.96	0.00	0
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	12.68	11.70 11.67 to 11.71	−0.98	0.00	0
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	12.80	11.82 11.80 to 11.84	−0.98	0.00	0
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	12.32	11.32 11.31 to 11.34	−1.00	0.00	0
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	14.58	13.57 13.51 to 13.63	−1.01	0.00	0
Population Health	Human Capital	16.18	15.10 15.07 to 15.13	−1.08	0.00	0
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	12.98	11.85 11.82 to 11.88	−1.13	0.00	0
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.29	11.14 11.09 to 11.23	−1.15	0.00	0
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	14.65	13.49 13.44 to 13.57	−1.16	0.00	0
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	12.43	11.20 11.14 to 11.24	−1.23	0.00	0
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	10.62	9.37 9.34 to 9.40	−1.25	0.00	0
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	12.16	10.90 10.87 to 10.93	−1.26	0.00	0
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	15.37	14.08 14.08 to 14.09	−1.29	0.00	0
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	13.49	12.20 12.18 to 12.23	−1.29	0.00	0
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	17.85	16.53 16.51 to 16.55	−1.32	0.00	0
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	15.03	13.67 13.56 to 13.76	−1.36	0.00	0
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	12.55	11.18 11.14 to 11.24	−1.37	0.00	0
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	15.00	13.60 13.58 to 13.63	−1.40	0.00	0
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	16.29	14.84 14.67 to 14.97	−1.45	0.00	0
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	16.98	15.28 15.18 to 15.34	−1.70	0.00	0
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	14.79	12.88 12.86 to 12.93	−1.91	0.00	0
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	14.88	12.96 12.93 to 12.98	−1.92	0.00	0
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	12.37	10.36 10.33 to 10.40	−2.01	0.00	0
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	13.16	11.10 11.08 to 11.11	−2.06	0.00	0
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	14.92	12.78 12.62 to 12.97	−2.14	0.00	0
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	17.32	14.88 14.79 to 14.91	−2.44	0.00	0
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	15.73	13.25 13.22 to 13.28	−2.48	0.00	0
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	16.78	14.21 14.16 to 14.27	−2.57	0.00	0
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	14.41	11.79 11.71 to 11.85	−2.62	0.00	0
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	13.05	10.23 10.16 to 10.28	−2.82	0.00	0
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	14.09	11.19 11.15 to 11.23	−2.90	0.00	0

Checks

The automated checks run on this experiment before anything was written about it. A warning is a candidate finding for the improvement loop.

passcredits_conservedlargest gap between credits in and credits accounted for: 1.4e-13
passscores_in_boundsscores range 3.127 to 20.000
passno_nans0 missing values in the trajectory and objectives
passprobe_replay_reproducesthe recorded moves played back reproduce the simulation to within 0.0e+00 points (10 simulations)
passledger_balancesthe edge ledger sums to the propagated change to within 1.6e-06 points
passmove_without_shocklargest one-year move in a group with no shock landing: 1.56 points; 0% of simulations have one above 3
warntier_jumplargest gain in one domain within five years: 6 tiers (30 simulations above 2)
passall_tier1_from_outside_top10starting rank 16; 0 simulations reach Tier 1 in all nine domains
warnsaturation_high100% of simulations end with a group at 20 that did not start there (median 1 groups)
passsaturation_low0% of simulations end with a group at 0 that did not start there (median 0 groups)
passspend_concentrationmedian concentration of spending across groups (HHI) 0.059; most funded group hard.strategic_infrastructure.advanced_manufacturing
passsame_actionthe most repeated move (group and mode) appears in a median 43% of rounds

Settings and versions

Experiment cycle-002.e4-ita. Every simulation records the model, graph and parameter versions, the scenario, the method and its seed, so it can be reproduced exactly.

Nation: Italy (ITA)
Position: A reconstructed 1996 position, aligned to the Index's scale
Method: Scripted. Actions fixed in advance by the experiment: for a backcast, the nation's historical pathway.
Scenario: Scripted events: Global funding seizure in year 12, Core disaster in year 13, Global funding seizure in year 15, Severe pandemic in year 24, Trade bloc rupture in year 26
Objective: Capability index, the primary objective the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it
Horizon: 30 rounds, 1996 to 2026
Simulations: 30 seeds, 1 to 30. Every method in the batch faces the same draws for the same seed.
Graph elasticities: Drawn for each simulation, uniformly within each edge’s bracket
Income: Base credits 642.3 a round, moving with the economic groups
Versions: Model 0.1.0, Capability Dependency Graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.0
Batch: Backcast 1996-2026 (cycle-002), cycle 2 of the improvement loop
Runtime: 4.3 seconds in all; 1018 microseconds a round

Not a forecast: Every figure is a distribution over the simulations of a structural model, reported to compare methods and test the model. None is a prediction of what a nation will do or become.
Structural parameters: Costs, decay, vulnerability and credits are structural seed values with low or medium confidence, set by domain with single-group exceptions. Five groups have no defensible value in a single-nation model and are flagged in the parameter tables.
Other nations are frozen: One nation is simulated at a time. Every other nation stays at its 2026 rating, so rank and tiers are measured against a still field; where the simulated nation rises past others their own tiers are not re-sorted.
Starting depth and mode are defaults: The position is the National Capability Index ratings. How institutionalised each capability is, and how much was built, bought or partnered, have no data behind them yet and start from structural defaults.
Credits are calibrated, not measured: Each nation’s income is set so that its position is affordable with headroom that rises with its fiscal capacity. It is not yet fiscal capacity as a share of GDP.