Round 15 · simulation 29 · cycle-002.e4-ken

Round 2011

Round 15 of 30 in simulation 29 of Kenya, scripted, 30 years from 1996: 5 actions, Breadbasket failure, and the index −0.533 to 5.77.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0

State in and state out

The simulation as it came into 2011 (the end of 2010) and as it left it.

Capability index
5.77 (−0.534)
In: 6.30
Rank by index
104
In: 93
Domains at Tier 1
0
In: 0
Credits carried
124
In: 118
Each domain's mean score and tier coming in and going out
DomainInOutChangeTier
Critical Technology2.081.76−0.32712
Strategic Infrastructure8.207.58−0.6216 → 7
National Security4.404.09−0.3169
Human Capital7.877.41−0.45811 → 13
Information & Influence6.605.92−0.67811
Governance & Integrity7.327.03−0.29315
Financial Strength6.886.11−0.77322 → 23
Production & Innovation6.345.77−0.56817 → 18
Trade & Investment7.036.26−0.76713 → 15

Decision, shocks and propagation

What happened in 2011: the credits, the scripted method's decision and its actions, any shocks and upside events, the tier changes, and the groups that moved most, split into what was invested, lost to decay, struck by events and carried through the dependency graph.

Credits. Income 135, plus 118 carried in. Maintenance 95. Spent 34 on actions (build 34). 124 carried over.

  • BuildEnergy Infrastructure7 credits for 0.28 levelsscripted_history
  • BuildCommunications & Digital Infrastructure7 credits for 0.34 levelsscripted_history
  • BuildPolitical Institutions & Civic Participation7 credits for 0.43 levelsscripted_history
  • BuildNational Resilience & Crisis Management7 credits for 0.36 levelsscripted_history
  • BuildTransport Infrastructure7 credits for 0.23 levelsscripted_history
  • Shock: Breadbasket failure S06. −38.1 points across the groups it bears on, after exposure, absorption and vulnerability, spread over its duration.

Tiers. Strategic Infrastructure Tier 6 to 7; Human Capital Tier 11 to 13; Financial Strength Tier 22 to 23; Production & Innovation Tier 17 to 18; Trade & Investment Tier 13 to 15.

The groups that moved most in 2011, and what moved them
Moved mostChangeInvestedDecayEventsGraph
Trade Facilitation & Logistics−1.290.000.00−1.32+0.02
Monetary & Currency Capability−1.170.000.00−1.17−0.01
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks−1.140.000.00−1.12−0.02
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure−1.090.000.00−1.05−0.03
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance−1.080.000.00−1.08−0.01
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure−1.080.000.00−1.04−0.04