A poor simulation (10th percentile) · cycle-002.e4-ken

Simulation 29

Kenya, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 29: a poor simulation (10th percentile) of the experiment's 30. Capability index 7.31 at the 1996 position, 4.16 in 2026; 150 actions over 30 rounds and 9 shocks.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 29

The experiment · The other representative simulations: 11 (median simulation), 22 (a good simulation (90th percentile))

Outcome

From the 1996 position to 2026.

Capability index: 4.16 (−3.15); From 7.31
Rank by index: 136; From 77
Domains at Tier 1: 0; From 0
Events: 9 shocks; 0 upside events

Trajectory by domain

The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.

ShockUpside event

Capability index by round

Pathway, round by round

Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.

Round	Decision	Events	Index
1997	Partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 3 Partner Financial System Depth & Access 3 Partner Transport Infrastructure 3 Partner Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 3 Partner Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 3	Breadbasket failure	7.06 −0.255
1998	Partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 3 Partner Financial System Depth & Access 3 Partner Transport Infrastructure 3 Partner Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 3 Partner Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 3		7.07 +0.007
1999	Partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 3 Partner Financial System Depth & Access 3 Partner Transport Infrastructure 3 Partner Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 3 Partner Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 3		7.07 +0.005
2000	Partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 3 Partner Financial System Depth & Access 3 Partner Transport Infrastructure 3 Partner Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 3 Partner Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 3		7.08 +0.007
2001	Partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 3 Partner Financial System Depth & Access 3 Partner Transport Infrastructure 3 Partner Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 3 Partner Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 3		7.08 +0.007
2002	Partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 3 Partner Financial System Depth & Access 3 Partner Transport Infrastructure 3 Partner Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 3 Partner Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 3		7.09 +0.008
2003	Build Foundational Education 8 Build Transport Infrastructure 8 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 8 Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 8 Build Energy Infrastructure 8		7.11 +0.013
2004	Build Foundational Education 8 Build Transport Infrastructure 8 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 8 Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 8 Build Energy Infrastructure 8		7.12 +0.015
2005	Build Foundational Education 8 Build Transport Infrastructure 8 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 8 Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 8 Build Energy Infrastructure 8		7.14 +0.020
2006	Build Foundational Education 8 Build Transport Infrastructure 8 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 8 Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 8 Build Energy Infrastructure 8		7.17 +0.026
2007	Build Foundational Education 8 Build Transport Infrastructure 8 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 8 Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 8 Build Energy Infrastructure 8	Legitimacy rupture	6.46 −0.704
2008	Build Energy Infrastructure 8 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 8 Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 8 Build National Resilience & Crisis Management 8 Build Transport Infrastructure 8	Global funding seizure	6.29 −0.170
2009	Build Energy Infrastructure 7 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 7 Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 7 Build National Resilience & Crisis Management 7 Build Transport Infrastructure 7		6.30 +0.006
2010	Build Energy Infrastructure 7 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 7 Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 7 Build National Resilience & Crisis Management 7 Build Transport Infrastructure 7		6.30 +0.003
2011	Build Energy Infrastructure 7 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 7 Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 7 Build National Resilience & Crisis Management 7 Build Transport Infrastructure 7	Breadbasket failure	5.77 −0.533
2012	Build Energy Infrastructure 7 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 7 Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 7 Build National Resilience & Crisis Management 7 Build Transport Infrastructure 7		5.76 −0.004
2013	Build Transport Infrastructure 6 Build Energy Infrastructure 6 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 6 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 6 Build Financial System Depth & Access 6		5.76 0.000
2014	Build Transport Infrastructure 6 Build Energy Infrastructure 6 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 6 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 6 Build Financial System Depth & Access 6		5.77 +0.005
2015	Build Transport Infrastructure 6 Build Energy Infrastructure 6 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 6 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 6 Build Financial System Depth & Access 6		5.78 +0.006
2016	Build Transport Infrastructure 6 Build Energy Infrastructure 6 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 6 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 6 Build Financial System Depth & Access 6		5.78 +0.006
2017	Build Transport Infrastructure 6 Build Energy Infrastructure 6 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 6 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 6 Build Financial System Depth & Access 6	Legitimacy rupture	5.53 −0.257
2018	Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 6 Build Health System Capability 6 Build Social Infrastructure 6 Build Advanced Manufacturing 6 Build Technology Adoption & Diffusion 6		5.54 +0.015
2019	Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 6 Build Health System Capability 6 Build Social Infrastructure 6 Build Advanced Manufacturing 6 Build Technology Adoption & Diffusion 6		5.55 +0.014
2020	Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 6 Build Health System Capability 6 Build Social Infrastructure 6 Build Advanced Manufacturing 6 Build Technology Adoption & Diffusion 6	Severe pandemicBreadbasket failure	4.86 −0.691
2021	Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 6 Build Health System Capability 6 Build Social Infrastructure 6 Build Advanced Manufacturing 6 Build Technology Adoption & Diffusion 6		4.87 +0.003
2022	Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 5 Build Health System Capability 5 Build Social Infrastructure 5 Build Advanced Manufacturing 5 Build Technology Adoption & Diffusion 5	Breadbasket failure	4.38 −0.482
2023	Partner Communications & Digital Infrastructure 5 Partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 5 Partner National Resilience & Crisis Management 5 Partner Energy Technologies 5 Partner Technology Adoption & Diffusion 5		4.38 +0.001
2024	Partner Communications & Digital Infrastructure 4 Partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 4 Partner National Resilience & Crisis Management 4 Partner Energy Technologies 4 Partner Technology Adoption & Diffusion 4	Core disaster	4.16 −0.221
2025	Partner Communications & Digital Infrastructure 4 Partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 4 Partner National Resilience & Crisis Management 4 Partner Energy Technologies 4 Partner Technology Adoption & Diffusion 4		4.16 −0.004
2026	Partner Communications & Digital Infrastructure 4 Partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 4 Partner National Resilience & Crisis Management 4 Partner Energy Technologies 4 Partner Technology Adoption & Diffusion 4		4.16 −0.001

Credits

What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.

Tiers by round

Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.

Domain	1996					2001					2006					2011					2016					2021					2026
Critical Technology	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	13	13	13	15	15	16	16	16	16	16
Strategic Infrastructure	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	6	7	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	7	7	7	7	7
National Security	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	10	10	10	10	10	11	11	11	12	12
Human Capital	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	11	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	14	14	15	15	15
Information & Influence	8	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	13	13	15	15	15	15	15
Governance & Integrity	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	16	16	16	16	16	16	17
Financial Strength	19	19	19	19	19	19	17	17	17	17	17	21	22	22	22	23	23	23	23	23	22	22	21	21	23	23	25	25	25	25	25
Production & Innovation	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	16	17	17	17	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	19	19	19	19	18	18	18
Trade & Investment	12	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	15	15	15	15	15	15	16	16	16	17	17	17	17	19	19	19

Probes

What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.

Probe	Index	Score sum
Hold instead of the method	−0.935	−69.0
No shocks	+4.026	+282.5
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0
Without the 1st largest decision	−0.005	−0.5
Without the 2nd largest decision	−0.007	−0.6
Without the 3rd largest decision	−0.012	−0.8
Without the 4th largest decision	−0.015	−1.1
Without the 5th largest decision	−0.004	−0.3
Without the 1st largest shock	+1.051	+73.9
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.719	+50.3
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.534	+37.0

Every group over the simulation

Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	1996	2026	Change	Invested	Events	Graph
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	9.97	11.25	+1.28	+4.65	−2.70	−0.67
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.02	11.10	+1.08	+4.02	−2.53	−0.40
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	7.34	7.72	+0.38	+3.74	−3.15	−0.20
Foundational Education	Human Capital	8.96	9.17	+0.21	+2.66	−2.09	−0.36
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	6.75	6.82	+0.07	+4.60	−4.11	−0.42
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	−2.98	−0.10
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	9.00	8.89	−0.11	+2.52	−2.26	−0.38
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	1.41	1.29	−0.12	+1.48	−3.37	−0.03
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	7.87	7.74	−0.13	+2.17	−1.91	−0.39
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	6.61	5.99	−0.62	+2.28	−2.70	−0.20
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	1.28	0.00	−1.28	0.00	−2.23	−0.06
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	9.53	7.84	−1.69	+2.41	−4.02	−0.08
Health System Capability	Human Capital	9.23	7.51	−1.72	+1.35	−2.57	−0.51
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	1.78	0.00	−1.78	0.00	−2.22	−0.15
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	8.84	7.02	−1.82	+2.81	−4.46	−0.17
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	1.93	0.00	−1.93	0.00	−2.21	−0.23
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	8.19	6.19	−2.00	+1.27	−2.75	−0.52
Advanced Education	Human Capital	8.35	6.35	−2.00	0.00	−2.13	+0.13
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	7.81	5.70	−2.11	0.00	−2.15	+0.03
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	7.72	5.59	−2.13	0.00	−2.15	+0.02
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	7.43	5.25	−2.18	0.00	−2.16	−0.02
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	3.48	1.29	−2.19	0.00	−2.16	−0.03
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	7.24	5.00	−2.24	0.00	−2.17	−0.07
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	3.00	0.74	−2.26	0.00	−2.18	−0.08
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	2.72	0.45	−2.27	0.00	−2.19	−0.08
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	3.28	0.88	−2.40	0.00	−2.17	−0.23
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	5.18	2.76	−2.42	0.00	−2.11	−0.31
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	7.88	5.39	−2.49	0.00	−2.15	−0.34
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	5.20	2.53	−2.67	0.00	−2.50	−0.17
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	7.47	4.63	−2.84	0.00	−2.67	−0.17
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	7.72	4.87	−2.85	0.00	−2.85	0.00
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	7.16	4.29	−2.87	0.00	−2.88	0.00
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	7.48	4.59	−2.89	0.00	−2.67	−0.22
Maritime Power	National Security	4.32	1.29	−3.03	0.00	−2.80	−0.24
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	6.36	3.18	−3.18	0.00	−2.85	−0.34
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	6.11	2.91	−3.20	0.00	−2.73	−0.47
Air Power	National Security	5.55	2.34	−3.21	0.00	−2.75	−0.46
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	4.27	0.99	−3.28	0.00	−2.80	−0.48
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	4.68	1.39	−3.29	0.00	−2.90	−0.39
Land Power	National Security	8.26	4.96	−3.30	0.00	−2.64	−0.67
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	9.12	5.71	−3.41	+1.32	−3.71	−1.02
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.65	7.24	−3.41	+2.00	−4.30	−1.11
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	8.61	5.08	−3.53	0.00	−3.47	−0.07
Space Operations	National Security	3.62	0.07	−3.55	0.00	−2.83	−0.72
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	6.39	2.78	−3.61	0.00	−3.29	−0.32
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	7.88	4.26	−3.62	0.00	−3.23	−0.38
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	7.86	4.20	−3.66	0.00	−3.24	−0.42
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	7.31	3.57	−3.74	0.00	−3.50	−0.25
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	7.28	3.52	−3.76	0.00	−3.75	−0.01
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.95	7.13	−3.82	0.00	−2.80	−1.02
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	9.67	5.81	−3.86	0.00	−3.80	−0.06
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	7.87	3.97	−3.90	0.00	−3.72	−0.17
Population Health	Human Capital	7.64	3.67	−3.97	0.00	−3.60	−0.36
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	9.32	5.30	−4.02	0.00	−3.27	−0.76
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	10.34	6.24	−4.10	0.00	−3.61	−0.49
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	8.69	4.55	−4.14	0.00	−3.73	−0.40
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	6.79	2.55	−4.24	0.00	−3.89	−0.34
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	6.42	2.15	−4.27	0.00	−3.79	−0.48
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	8.41	3.99	−4.42	0.00	−3.86	−0.57
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	9.12	4.69	−4.43	0.00	−4.27	−0.16
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	9.98	5.49	−4.49	0.00	−3.79	−0.70
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	7.19	2.68	−4.51	0.00	−3.91	−0.59
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	7.18	2.66	−4.52	0.00	−3.92	−0.60
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	6.69	2.01	−4.68	0.00	−4.18	−0.50
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	8.74	4.04	−4.70	0.00	−4.30	−0.40
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	8.71	3.99	−4.72	+3.71	−7.63	−0.81
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	8.93	4.15	−4.78	0.00	−3.96	−0.83
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	8.48	3.42	−5.06	0.00	−4.67	−0.40
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	7.42	2.07	−5.35	0.00	−4.96	−0.39
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	7.79	2.15	−5.64	0.00	−5.40	−0.24
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	9.50	3.76	−5.74	0.00	−5.40	−0.34
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	9.12	2.73	−6.39	0.00	−6.62	+0.23
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	8.72	1.03	−7.69	0.00	−7.43	−0.26

Seed 29 of experiment cycle-002.e4-ken. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.