E4 · cycle-002.e4-ken

Kenya, scripted, 30 years from 1996

30 simulations of 30 rounds from the 1996 position. Kenya decides by the scripted method; scripted events: Breadbasket failure in year 1, Legitimacy rupture in year 11, Global funding seizure in year 12, Breadbasket failure in year 15, Legitimacy rupture in year 21, Severe pandemic in year 24, Breadbasket failure in year 24, Breadbasket failure in year 26, Core disaster in year 28.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seeds 1–30 · elasticity sampled within each bracket

The same configuration in other cycles: cycle 3.

Every simulation · Compare with another experiment · More experiments like this

Not a forecast

Simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values, to compare methods and test the model. Other nations stay at their 2026 ratings throughout.

Outcome across simulations

The median at 2026, with the 10th to the 90th percentile of the 30 simulations under it.

Capability index: 4.18 (−3.14); From 7.31; 4.16 to 4.19
Rank by index: 136; From 77; 136 to 136
Domains at Tier 1: 0; From 0; 0 to 0
Tier rank: 95; From 85; 95 to 95

Capability index by round

Rank by index, by round

Every objective at the position and at the horizon
Objective	1996	10th percentile	Median	90th percentile	Better
Capability indexprimary	7.31	4.16	4.18	4.19	higher
Rank by index	77	136	136	136	lower
Tier rank	85	95	95	95	lower
Domains at Tier 1	0	0	0	0	higher
Score sum	519.7	302.6	303.9	305.1	higher
Goal-weighted score	519.7	302.6	303.9	305.1	higher
Resilient score	519.7	303.9 (mean score sum over the simulations)			higher

The capability index is the mean of the three dimensions, each the mean of its domains, each the mean of its groups. Tiers are Pareto layers within each domain; the tier rank orders nations by domains held at Tier 1, then Tier 2, and so on. The goal-weighted score is the score sum unless the experiment sets a goal. The primary objective is the one the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it.

Credits

What each round’s credits went on in the median simulation. Across all simulations, build took 79 per cent, buy took 0 per cent, partner took 21 per cent of the 842 credits a simulation spent on actions.

Against history

Started from a reconstructed 1996 position and played along the pathway and shocks Kenya actually had, then scored against the 2026 ratings. The position is an estimate, so part of any error is the reconstruction's. The calibration summary across all fifty nations is on the cycle's page under Loop.

Index 1996: 7.31; reconstructed
Observed 2026: 7.18; the Index's rating
Simulated 2026: 4.18; 4.10 to 4.25
Skill against persistence: −2.75; group error 2.89 against 0.77 if nothing changed

Domain	1996	Observed	Simulated	Bias	Direction
Critical Technology	2.93	2.90	0.99 1.0–1.0	−1.91	wrong
Strategic Infrastructure	8.52	7.88	6.40 6.3–6.5	−1.48	right
National Security	5.60	4.60	2.63 2.5–2.7	−1.97	right
Human Capital	8.24	7.68	5.98 5.9–6.0	−1.70	right
Information & Influence	8.20	8.21	3.60 3.5–3.7	−4.61	wrong
Governance & Integrity	8.00	8.89	6.20 6.2–6.2	−2.69	wrong
Financial Strength	8.47	8.57	3.85 3.8–3.9	−4.71	wrong
Production & Innovation	7.46	7.57	4.32 4.3–4.4	−3.25	wrong
Trade & Investment	8.42	8.30	3.64 3.5–3.8	−4.66	wrong

The history it was played under: shocks and events

1997 · S06 × 0.3 El Nino floods followed by drought cut food production and damaged infrastructure.
2007 · S05 × 1.1 The disputed presidential election triggered nationwide violence that killed over 1,000 people and displaced hundreds of thousands.
2008 · S02 × 0.4 The global financial crisis depressed export demand, remittances and foreign investment.
2011 · S06 × 0.6 The Horn of Africa drought and famine caused acute food insecurity and large refugee inflows into Kenya.
2017 · S05 × 0.4 The Supreme Court annulled the presidential election and the disputed re-run caused localised violence and political paralysis.
2020 · S10 × 0.8 The COVID-19 pandemic stretched the health system and caused a sharp economic contraction.
2020 · S06 × 0.4 A desert locust upsurge and drought damaged crops and pasture across the country.
2022 · S06 × 0.5 The worst drought in four decades left millions severely food insecure.
2024 · S07 × 0.4 Widespread flooding displaced hundreds of thousands and damaged transport and water infrastructure.

The pathway: what it prioritised, period by period

1997–2002 · partner · 2% each Donor-backed structural adjustment, privatisation and infrastructure maintenance dominated the late Moi years. (Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance, Financial System Depth & Access, Transport Infrastructure, Government Effectiveness & Public Administration, Agriculture & Food Infrastructure)
2003–2007 · build · 5% each Kibaki's recovery strategy launched free primary education, fiscal reform, roads and an early anti-corruption drive. (Foundational Education, Transport Infrastructure, Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance, Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption, Energy Infrastructure)
2008–2012 · build · 5% each Post-2008 recovery expanded roads and power, landed the first undersea fibre cables, and implemented the 2010 constitution. (Energy Infrastructure, Communications & Digital Infrastructure, Political Institutions & Civic Participation, National Resilience & Crisis Management, Transport Infrastructure)
2013–2017 · build · 5% each Vision 2030 drove the standard-gauge railway, geothermal power, digital infrastructure and mobile-money financial inclusion. (Transport Infrastructure, Energy Infrastructure, Communications & Digital Infrastructure, Government Effectiveness & Public Administration, Financial System Depth & Access)
2018–2022 · build · 5% each The Big Four agenda prioritised food security, universal health coverage, affordable housing and manufacturing while the digital economy expanded. (Agriculture & Food Infrastructure, Health System Capability, Social Infrastructure, Advanced Manufacturing, Technology Adoption & Diffusion)
2023–2026 · partner · 5% each The bottom-up economic transformation agenda emphasised digital superhighway rollout, climate resilience, fiscal consolidation and clean energy. (Communications & Digital Infrastructure, Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance, National Resilience & Crisis Management, Energy Technologies, Technology Adoption & Diffusion)

Reconstruction notes (deepseek-v4-pro): The main uncertainties concern the exact 1996 scores for Kenya's informal economy, public services and security holdings, where official data are patchy. Health, education and infrastructure estimates are inferred from enrolment, mortality and investment data rather than detailed capability audits. Security and critical-technology scores are especially uncertain because Kenya's inventories and technical base were small and poorly documented.

Report

Written from the simulation record by the loop's narrator. Every figure names the query it came from, in square brackets.

Batch cycle-002. Model 0.1.0, graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.0. 30 simulations, seeds 1 to 30; probes on 10. Every figure is a distribution over simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values; it shows what the model implies under these settings, not what will happen. Other nations are frozen at their 2026 ratings. No reconstructed historical data is used in this experiment.

Headline

Kenya played 30 rounds from 1996 under the scripted method, with scripted events, 30 times. Its capability index moved from 7.31 to a median of 4.18 (−3.14), with 90 per cent of simulations between 4.16 and 4.20 [experiment_objectives].

Starting position

In 1996 the nation ranks 77 on the index against the frozen field, holds 0 of nine domains at Tier 1 and has a tier rank of 85. Its base income is 153 credits a year, calibrated so that its 2026 position is affordable with headroom for investment.

What was decided

A simulation spent a median of 842 credits on moves. The five groups that took most were Energy Infrastructure (build, 105 credits, 12.5 per cent); Transport Infrastructure (build, 105 credits, 12.5 per cent); Communications & Digital Infrastructure (build, 66 credits, 7.8 per cent); Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance (build, 39 credits, 4.7 per cent); Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption (build, 39 credits, 4.7 per cent) [experiment_decisions_by_group]. By mode: build 79 per cent, partner 21 per cent [experiment_decisions_by_group]. Concentration of spending (HHI) had a median of 0.081, and the most repeated action appeared in 50 per cent of rounds.

The leading domain by period: rounds 1 to 5, Financial Strength; rounds 6 to 10, Strategic Infrastructure; rounds 11 to 15, Strategic Infrastructure; rounds 16 to 20, Strategic Infrastructure; rounds 21 to 25, Strategic Infrastructure; rounds 26 to 30, Strategic Infrastructure [experiment_spend_by_period].

What the world did

A median simulation saw 9 shocks and 0 upside events. The most damaging per firing were S05 (60 firings in 30 simulations, −35.9 points each); S06 (120 firings in 30 simulations, −29.5 points each); S10 (30 firings in 30 simulations, −24.6 points each) [experiment_shocks].

The groups that lost most to shocks, per simulation: Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance −7.62; Monetary & Currency Capability −7.43; Trade Facilitation & Logistics −6.61; Information Environment & Strategic Communication −5.40 [experiment_shock_damage_by_group].

The edges that carried most change through the graph, per simulation: Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance to Social Infrastructure (−0.81 points); Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance to Force Generation & Mobilisation (−0.68 points); Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance to Transport Infrastructure (−0.58 points) [experiment_propagation_by_edge].

Where it ended

At 2026 the median rank is 136 (5th to 95th percentile 136 to 136), the median count of Tier 1 domains 0 (0 to 0) and the median tier rank 95; the resilient score, the mean score sum over simulations, is 304 [experiment_objectives].

Why

Without shocks the index ends +4.026 higher on average, so the shocks cost about 4.026 index points [experiment_probe_attribution].

Holding instead of following this method changes the index by −0.935: that is the method's worth against doing nothing [experiment_probe_attribution].

Removing any single one of the five largest actions changes the index by between −0.015 and −0.004, for example 2008 build Energy Infrastructure (8 credits) [experiment_probe_attribution]. The largest actions by credits come late, when income is highest, and are rarely the most valuable.

Removing the largest shock of a simulation raises the index by +1.051 on average [experiment_probe_attribution].

The replay probe reproduces the simulations exactly (index change 0.000000), so the attributions are clean [experiment_probe_attribution].

Surprises

tier_jump (warn): largest gain in one domain within five years: 4 tiers (9 simulations above 2).

saturation_low (warn): 100% of simulations end with a group at 0 that did not start there (median 3 groups).

retired_words (warn): e4-ken/report.md: 'simulations' 2 time(s), first near line 38; use 'simulations'.

The simulation furthest from the median (seed 15) ends −0.03 from it, with 9 shocks and 0 upside events [experiment_outlier_simulations].

Comparison

This is the baseline (hold) experiment, or there is none for this nation in the batch.

Against history: from a reconstructed index of 7.31 the model ends at 4.18, where the 2026 ratings put it at 7.18. Group scores miss by 2.89 points on average, against 0.77 for assuming nothing changed (skill −2.74); the change in each domain has the right sign in 33 per cent of domains. Furthest below history: financial strength (−4.71); furthest above: strategic infrastructure (−1.48) [experiment_against_history]. The starting position is reconstructed, so part of the error is the reconstruction's.

What each decision and shock was worth

Counterfactual probes on the first 10 seeds: the same simulations with one thing changed, paired seed by seed. A removed decision or shock is taken out and the other decisions replayed unchanged, so the difference is that item's worth.

Probe	Index	Score sum	For example
Hold instead of the method	−0.935	−69.0
No shocks	+4.026	+282.5
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0
Without the 1st largest decision	−0.005	−0.5	2008 build Energy Infrastructure (8 credits)
Without the 2nd largest decision	−0.007	−0.6	2008 build Communications & Digital Infrastructure (8 credits)
Without the 3rd largest decision	−0.012	−0.8	2008 build Political Institutions & Civic Participation (8 credits)
Without the 4th largest decision	−0.015	−1.1	2008 build National Resilience & Crisis Management (8 credits)
Without the 5th largest decision	−0.004	−0.3	2008 build Transport Infrastructure (8 credits)
Without the 1st largest shock	+1.051	+73.9	2007 S05 (-52.4 points)
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.719	+50.3	2011 S06 (-38.1 points)
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.534	+37.0	2022 S06 (-35.0 points)

Simulations

Three simulations told round by round, each on its own page: the one nearest the median index at the horizon, and those nearest the 10th and the 90th percentile. Every one of the 30 is listed with its outcome on the simulations page.

All 30 simulations

Events

How often each shock and upside event began across the simulations. Shocks come from the ten downside scenarios and upside events from the ten upside ones, at their yearly likelihood.

Event	Kind	Simulations	Mean round	Points
Global funding seizure S02	Shock	100 per cent	12.0	−12.6
Legitimacy rupture S05	Shock	100 per cent	16.0	−35.9
Breadbasket failure S06	Shock	100 per cent	16.5	−29.5
Core disaster S07	Shock	100 per cent	28.0	−15.7
Severe pandemic S10	Shock	100 per cent	24.0	−24.6

Groups across simulations

Every capability group: its position, and its median and spread at the horizon across the simulations, with what the method spent on it.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	1996	2026	Change	Levels invested	Credits
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	9.97	11.33 11.14 to 11.52	+1.36	4.66	123
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.02	11.22 11.14 to 11.29	+1.20	4.03	83
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	7.34	7.79 7.74 to 7.85	+0.45	3.76	45
Foundational Education	Human Capital	8.96	9.15 9.06 to 9.22	+0.19	2.66	39
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	6.75	6.90 6.82 to 6.95	+0.15	4.60	105
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	0.00	0.00 0.00 to 0.00	0.00	0.00	0
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	9.00	8.92 8.86 to 8.98	−0.08	2.53	53
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	1.41	1.30 1.29 to 1.32	−0.11	1.49	17
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	7.87	7.74 7.65 to 7.83	−0.13	2.17	39
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	6.61	6.07 5.99 to 6.11	−0.54	2.28	36
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	1.28	0.00 0.00 to 0.00	−1.28	0.00	0
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	9.53	7.84 7.77 to 7.88	−1.69	2.41	48
Health System Capability	Human Capital	9.23	7.52 7.43 to 7.63	−1.71	1.36	28
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	1.78	0.00 0.00 to 0.00	−1.78	0.00	0
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	8.84	7.05 7.01 to 7.08	−1.79	2.82	48
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	1.93	0.00 0.00 to 0.00	−1.93	0.00	0
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	8.19	6.25 6.16 to 6.36	−1.94	1.27	28
Advanced Education	Human Capital	8.35	6.31 6.26 to 6.36	−2.04	0.00	0
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	7.81	5.73 5.69 to 5.76	−2.08	0.00	0
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	7.72	5.61 5.58 to 5.65	−2.11	0.00	0
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	7.43	5.26 5.25 to 5.26	−2.17	0.00	0
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	3.48	1.30 1.28 to 1.31	−2.18	0.00	0
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	3.00	0.73 0.71 to 0.75	−2.27	0.00	0
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	7.24	4.96 4.93 to 5.00	−2.28	0.00	0
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	2.72	0.41 0.39 to 0.45	−2.31	0.00	0
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	3.28	0.92 0.88 to 0.97	−2.36	0.00	0
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	7.88	5.38 5.33 to 5.42	−2.50	0.00	0
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	5.18	2.67 2.58 to 2.75	−2.51	0.00	0
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	5.20	2.54 2.50 to 2.58	−2.66	0.00	0
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	7.72	4.88 4.87 to 4.88	−2.84	0.00	0
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	7.16	4.29 4.29 to 4.30	−2.87	0.00	0
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	7.48	4.59 4.48 to 4.68	−2.89	0.00	0
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	7.47	4.57 4.50 to 4.66	−2.90	0.00	0
Maritime Power	National Security	4.32	1.27 1.23 to 1.30	−3.05	0.00	0
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.65	7.55 7.38 to 7.72	−3.10	2.00	46
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	6.11	3.01 2.92 to 3.13	−3.10	0.00	0
Air Power	National Security	5.55	2.32 2.24 to 2.40	−3.23	0.00	0
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	4.27	1.02 0.87 to 1.12	−3.25	0.00	0
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	6.36	3.10 3.01 to 3.25	−3.26	0.00	0
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	9.12	5.83 5.73 to 6.09	−3.29	1.32	28
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	4.68	1.39 1.28 to 1.45	−3.29	0.00	0
Land Power	National Security	8.26	4.89 4.68 to 4.97	−3.37	0.00	0
Space Operations	National Security	3.62	0.20 0.09 to 0.28	−3.42	0.00	0
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	7.88	4.36 4.32 to 4.41	−3.52	0.00	0
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	8.61	5.05 5.01 to 5.11	−3.56	0.00	0
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	7.86	4.24 4.17 to 4.31	−3.62	0.00	0
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	6.39	2.71 2.63 to 2.77	−3.68	0.00	0
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	7.31	3.56 3.49 to 3.62	−3.75	0.00	0
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	7.28	3.51 3.50 to 3.52	−3.77	0.00	0
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.95	7.10 6.74 to 7.31	−3.85	0.00	0
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	9.32	5.46 5.33 to 5.60	−3.86	0.00	0
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	9.67	5.81 5.77 to 5.86	−3.86	0.00	0
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	7.87	3.99 3.94 to 4.03	−3.88	0.00	0
Population Health	Human Capital	7.64	3.67 3.61 to 3.72	−3.97	0.00	0
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	8.69	4.63 4.55 to 4.70	−4.06	0.00	0
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	6.79	2.55 2.48 to 2.61	−4.24	0.00	0
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	10.34	6.09 5.97 to 6.25	−4.25	0.00	0
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	6.42	2.13 2.01 to 2.22	−4.29	0.00	0
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	8.41	4.02 3.96 to 4.15	−4.39	0.00	0
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	9.98	5.56 5.41 to 5.72	−4.42	0.00	0
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	9.12	4.69 4.66 to 4.73	−4.43	0.00	0
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	7.18	2.67 2.51 to 2.81	−4.51	0.00	0
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	8.93	4.41 4.16 to 4.57	−4.52	0.00	0
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	7.19	2.66 2.57 to 2.76	−4.53	0.00	0
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	8.74	4.19 4.05 to 4.31	−4.55	0.00	0
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	8.71	4.15 4.00 to 4.31	−4.56	3.72	74
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	6.69	2.10 2.01 to 2.19	−4.59	0.00	0
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	8.48	3.39 3.24 to 3.52	−5.09	0.00	0
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	7.42	2.07 2.01 to 2.15	−5.35	0.00	0
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	7.79	2.12 2.05 to 2.19	−5.67	0.00	0
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	9.50	3.74 3.63 to 3.82	−5.76	0.00	0
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	9.12	2.71 2.64 to 2.78	−6.41	0.00	0
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	8.72	0.93 0.80 to 1.05	−7.79	0.00	0

Checks

The automated checks run on this experiment before anything was written about it. A warning is a candidate finding for the improvement loop.

passcredits_conservedlargest gap between credits in and credits accounted for: 5.7e-14
passscores_in_boundsscores range 0.000 to 13.029
passno_nans0 missing values in the trajectory and objectives
passprobe_replay_reproducesthe recorded moves played back reproduce the simulation to within 0.0e+00 points (10 simulations)
passledger_balancesthe edge ledger sums to the propagated change to within 9.9e-07 points
passmove_without_shocklargest one-year move in a group with no shock landing: 0.53 points; 0% of simulations have one above 3
warntier_jumplargest gain in one domain within five years: 4 tiers (9 simulations above 2)
passall_tier1_from_outside_top10starting rank 77; 0 simulations reach Tier 1 in all nine domains
passsaturation_high0% of simulations end with a group at 20 that did not start there (median 0 groups)
warnsaturation_low100% of simulations end with a group at 0 that did not start there (median 3 groups)
passspend_concentrationmedian concentration of spending across groups (HHI) 0.081; most funded group hard.strategic_infrastructure.transport_infrastructure
passsame_actionthe most repeated move (group and mode) appears in a median 50% of rounds

Settings and versions

Experiment cycle-002.e4-ken. Every simulation records the model, graph and parameter versions, the scenario, the method and its seed, so it can be reproduced exactly.

Nation: Kenya (KEN)
Position: A reconstructed 1996 position, aligned to the Index's scale
Method: Scripted. Actions fixed in advance by the experiment: for a backcast, the nation's historical pathway.
Scenario: Scripted events: Breadbasket failure in year 1, Legitimacy rupture in year 11, Global funding seizure in year 12, Breadbasket failure in year 15, Legitimacy rupture in year 21, Severe pandemic in year 24, Breadbasket failure in year 24, Breadbasket failure in year 26, Core disaster in year 28
Objective: Capability index, the primary objective the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it
Horizon: 30 rounds, 1996 to 2026
Simulations: 30 seeds, 1 to 30. Every method in the batch faces the same draws for the same seed.
Graph elasticities: Drawn for each simulation, uniformly within each edge’s bracket
Income: Base credits 152.5 a round, moving with the economic groups
Versions: Model 0.1.0, Capability Dependency Graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.0
Batch: Backcast 1996-2026 (cycle-002), cycle 2 of the improvement loop
Runtime: 4.3 seconds in all; 1076 microseconds a round

Not a forecast: Every figure is a distribution over the simulations of a structural model, reported to compare methods and test the model. None is a prediction of what a nation will do or become.
Structural parameters: Costs, decay, vulnerability and credits are structural seed values with low or medium confidence, set by domain with single-group exceptions. Five groups have no defensible value in a single-nation model and are flagged in the parameter tables.
Other nations are frozen: One nation is simulated at a time. Every other nation stays at its 2026 rating, so rank and tiers are measured against a still field; where the simulated nation rises past others their own tiers are not re-sorted.
Starting depth and mode are defaults: The position is the National Capability Index ratings. How institutionalised each capability is, and how much was built, bought or partnered, have no data behind them yet and start from structural defaults.
Credits are calibrated, not measured: Each nation’s income is set so that its position is affordable with headroom that rises with its fiscal capacity. It is not yet fiscal capacity as a share of GDP.