A good simulation (90th percentile) · cycle-002.e4-lka

Simulation 27

Sri Lanka, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 27: a good simulation (90th percentile) of the experiment's 30. Capability index 8.11 at the 1996 position, 6.55 in 2026; 133 actions over 30 rounds and 5 shocks.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 27

The experiment · The other representative simulations: 1 (median simulation), 12 (a poor simulation (10th percentile))

Outcome

From the 1996 position to 2026.

Capability index: 6.55 (−1.57); From 8.11
Rank by index: 90; From 67
Domains at Tier 1: 0; From 0
Events: 5 shocks; 0 upside events

Trajectory by domain

The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.

ShockUpside event

Capability index by round

Pathway, round by round

Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.

Round	Decision	Events	Index
1997	Build Land Power 9 Build Force Generation & Mobilisation 9 Build Export Capability & Sophistication 9 Build Foundational Education 9 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 8		8.12 +0.010
1998	Build Land Power 9 Build Force Generation & Mobilisation 9 Build Export Capability & Sophistication 9 Build Foundational Education 9 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 8		8.14 +0.021
1999	Build Land Power 9 Build Force Generation & Mobilisation 9 Build Export Capability & Sophistication 9 Build Foundational Education 9 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 7		8.17 +0.026
2000	Build Land Power 9 Build Force Generation & Mobilisation 9 Build Export Capability & Sophistication 9 Build Foundational Education 9 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 6		8.20 +0.029
2001	Build Land Power 9 Build Force Generation & Mobilisation 9 Build Export Capability & Sophistication 9 Build Foundational Education 9 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 5		8.23 +0.029
2002	Build Land Power 9 Build Force Generation & Mobilisation 9 Build Export Capability & Sophistication 9 Build Foundational Education 9 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 4		8.26 +0.028
2003	Partner Transport Infrastructure 4 Partner Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 4 Partner National Resilience & Crisis Management 4 Partner Health System Capability 4 Partner Trade Facilitation & Logistics 4		8.28 +0.024
2004	Partner Transport Infrastructure 4 Partner Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 4 Partner National Resilience & Crisis Management 4 Partner Health System Capability 4 Partner Trade Facilitation & Logistics 4	Core disaster	7.96 −0.317
2005	Partner Transport Infrastructure 4 Partner Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 4 Partner National Resilience & Crisis Management 4 Partner Health System Capability 4 Partner Trade Facilitation & Logistics 4		7.98 +0.015
2006	Partner Transport Infrastructure 3 Partner Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 3 Partner National Resilience & Crisis Management 3 Partner Health System Capability 3 Partner Trade Facilitation & Logistics 3 Build Intelligence & Assessment 8 Build Land Power 8 Build Air Power 8 Build Maritime Power 8 Build Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 8		7.99 +0.012
2007	Build Intelligence & Assessment 8 Build Land Power 8 Build Air Power 8 Build Maritime Power 8 Build Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 8		8.00 +0.011
2008	Build Intelligence & Assessment 8 Build Land Power 8 Build Air Power 8 Build Maritime Power 8 Build Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 4	Global funding seizure	7.80 −0.200
2009	Build Intelligence & Assessment 8 Build Land Power 8 Build Air Power 6		7.81 +0.005
2010	Build Transport Infrastructure 8 Build Energy Infrastructure 8 Build Trade Facilitation & Logistics 5		7.81 +0.007
2011	Build Transport Infrastructure 8 Build Energy Infrastructure 8 Build Trade Facilitation & Logistics 4		7.82 +0.009
2012	Build Transport Infrastructure 8 Build Energy Infrastructure 8 Build Trade Facilitation & Logistics 4		7.83 +0.006
2013	Build Transport Infrastructure 8 Build Energy Infrastructure 8 Build Trade Facilitation & Logistics 3		7.83 +0.006
2014	Build Transport Infrastructure 8 Build Energy Infrastructure 8 Build Trade Facilitation & Logistics 3		7.84 +0.009
2015	Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 3 Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 3 Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 3 Build Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 3 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 3		7.85 +0.010
2016	Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 3 Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 3 Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 3 Build Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 3 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 3		7.86 +0.010
2017	Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 3 Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 3 Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 3 Build Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 3 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 3		7.87 +0.011
2018	Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 3 Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 3 Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 3 Build Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 3 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 3		7.88 +0.011
2019	Build Internal Security & Order 2 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 2 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 2 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 2 Build National Resilience & Crisis Management 2		7.90 +0.013
2020	Build Internal Security & Order 2 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 2 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 2 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 2 Build National Resilience & Crisis Management 2	Severe pandemic	7.53 −0.365
2021	Build Internal Security & Order 2 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 2 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 2 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 2 Build National Resilience & Crisis Management 2		7.54 +0.006
2022	Build Internal Security & Order 2 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 2 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 2 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 2 Build National Resilience & Crisis Management 2 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 8 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 8 Buy Financial Stability & Crisis Management 8 Build National Resilience & Crisis Management 8 Build Population Health 8	Global funding seizureLegitimacy rupture	6.61 −0.925
2023	Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 8 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 8 Buy Financial Stability & Crisis Management 2		6.61 −0.005
2024	No actions		6.59 −0.023
2025	Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 0		6.57 −0.020
2026	Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 2		6.55 −0.019

Credits

What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.

Tiers by round

Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.

Domain	1996					2001					2006					2011					2016					2021					2026
Critical Technology	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	12	12	13	13	13	13	13
Strategic Infrastructure	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
National Security	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
Human Capital	10	10	10	10	9	9	8	8	7	7	6	6	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	8	8	9	9	9	9	9
Information & Influence	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	11	11	11	11	11
Governance & Integrity	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	15	15	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	15	15	15	15	14	15	15	15	15	15	15	15
Financial Strength	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	18	18	18	18	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	20	20	24	24	24	24	24
Production & Innovation	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	16	16	16	16	16
Trade & Investment	10	10	10	10	9	9	8	8	8	8	8	8	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	8	8	9	9	10	10	10	10	10

Probes

What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.

Probe	Index	Score sum
Hold instead of the method	−0.591	−43.6
No shocks	+2.268	+154.8
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0
Without the 1st largest decision	+0.008	+0.4
Without the 2nd largest decision	+0.008	+0.4
Without the 3rd largest decision	−0.001	−0.0
Without the 4th largest decision	−0.002	−0.3
Without the 5th largest decision	+0.008	+0.4
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.737	+48.8
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.462	+32.4
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.492	+34.5

Every group over the simulation

Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	1996	2026	Change	Invested	Decay	Events	Graph
Land Power	National Security	8.80	10.91	+2.11	+2.83	−0.01	−0.68	−0.02
Foundational Education	Human Capital	11.68	13.40	+1.72	+3.13	0.00	−1.09	−0.32
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	9.07	10.15	+1.08	+3.39	−0.01	−2.11	−0.20
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	8.15	8.67	+0.52	+1.43	−0.01	−0.76	−0.14
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	9.72	10.19	+0.47	+1.80	−0.01	−1.05	−0.26
Air Power	National Security	5.77	6.11	+0.34	+1.27	−0.01	−0.79	−0.14
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	9.81	10.08	+0.27	+2.32	−0.01	−1.58	−0.47
Maritime Power	National Security	6.14	6.37	+0.23	+1.06	−0.01	−0.79	−0.03
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	0.03	0.00	−0.03	0.00	0.00	−0.93	−0.02
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	8.20	8.07	−0.13	+0.76	−0.01	−0.79	−0.09
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	7.40	7.24	−0.16	+1.79	0.00	−1.60	−0.34
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	8.77	8.47	−0.30	+2.03	−0.01	−2.22	−0.10
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	9.22	8.76	−0.46	+1.41	0.00	−1.67	−0.20
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	9.07	8.47	−0.60	+0.67	0.00	−1.19	−0.07
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	8.04	7.39	−0.65	+0.75	0.00	−1.41	+0.01
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	10.40	9.69	−0.71	+2.54	−0.01	−3.28	+0.04
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	8.44	7.71	−0.73	+0.69	0.00	−1.40	−0.01
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	8.50	7.77	−0.73	+0.68	0.00	−1.40	−0.01
Advanced Education	Human Capital	9.75	8.92	−0.83	0.00	0.00	−1.03	+0.21
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	8.22	7.34	−0.88	0.00	0.00	−1.05	+0.18
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	8.52	7.54	−0.98	0.00	0.00	−1.05	+0.07
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	7.53	6.53	−1.00	0.00	−0.01	−0.84	−0.16
Population Health	Human Capital	10.93	9.92	−1.01	+0.41	0.00	−1.27	−0.14
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	9.09	7.97	−1.12	0.00	0.00	−1.04	−0.08
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.80	9.67	−1.13	+0.25	0.00	−1.23	−0.14
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.43	9.27	−1.16	+0.72	0.00	−1.62	−0.26
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	8.11	6.94	−1.17	0.00	0.00	−1.06	−0.12
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	11.90	10.70	−1.20	0.00	0.00	−0.99	−0.21
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	5.10	3.87	−1.23	0.00	0.00	−0.87	−0.37
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	4.60	3.35	−1.25	0.00	0.00	−1.22	−0.02
Space Operations	National Security	3.74	2.49	−1.25	0.00	0.00	−0.89	−0.37
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	7.86	6.61	−1.25	+0.37	0.00	−1.46	−0.16
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	8.72	7.45	−1.27	0.00	0.00	−1.24	−0.03
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	3.32	2.03	−1.29	0.00	0.00	−1.25	−0.04
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	1.95	0.66	−1.29	0.00	0.00	−1.27	−0.03
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	1.78	0.47	−1.31	0.00	0.00	−1.27	−0.04
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	3.08	1.75	−1.33	0.00	0.00	−1.25	−0.08
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	2.81	1.43	−1.38	0.00	0.00	−1.25	−0.12
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	3.95	2.56	−1.39	0.00	0.00	−1.23	−0.16
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.37	8.97	−1.40	0.00	−0.01	−1.24	−0.15
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	4.97	3.48	−1.49	0.00	0.00	−1.32	−0.18
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	9.37	7.86	−1.51	0.00	0.00	−1.25	−0.26
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	2.67	1.15	−1.52	0.00	0.00	−1.48	−0.04
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	10.75	9.22	−1.53	0.00	−0.01	−1.51	−0.01
Health System Capability	Human Capital	11.35	9.81	−1.54	+0.72	0.00	−1.90	−0.36
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	8.44	6.80	−1.64	0.00	0.00	−1.56	−0.08
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	6.36	4.72	−1.64	0.00	0.00	−1.30	−0.34
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	8.65	6.97	−1.68	0.00	0.00	−1.55	−0.12
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	6.26	4.55	−1.71	0.00	−0.01	−1.61	−0.09
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	5.43	3.71	−1.72	0.00	0.00	−1.21	−0.51
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	8.23	6.46	−1.77	0.00	0.00	−1.56	−0.20
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	6.12	4.16	−1.96	0.00	0.00	−1.60	−0.35
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	8.45	6.38	−2.07	0.00	0.00	−2.08	+0.01
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.61	8.30	−2.31	0.00	0.00	−1.75	−0.57
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	7.77	5.46	−2.31	0.00	0.00	−2.10	−0.21
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	8.61	6.29	−2.32	0.00	0.00	−2.08	−0.24
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	7.12	4.77	−2.35	0.00	0.00	−2.11	−0.23
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	11.02	8.59	−2.43	0.00	0.00	−2.36	−0.06
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	7.99	5.56	−2.43	0.00	0.00	−2.35	−0.07
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	6.85	4.40	−2.45	0.00	0.00	−2.46	+0.01
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	10.31	7.70	−2.61	0.00	−0.01	−2.44	−0.16
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	10.23	7.59	−2.64	0.00	−0.01	−2.44	−0.19
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	10.14	7.44	−2.70	0.00	0.00	−2.45	−0.25
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.78	8.06	−2.72	0.00	0.00	−1.95	−0.77
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	9.13	6.26	−2.87	+1.24	0.00	−3.88	−0.22
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	7.63	4.66	−2.97	0.00	0.00	−2.52	−0.44
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	9.42	6.28	−3.14	+0.50	0.00	−3.51	−0.13
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	8.22	4.80	−3.42	0.00	0.00	−3.19	−0.23
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	9.59	6.13	−3.46	+1.57	0.00	−4.57	−0.46
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	9.86	6.28	−3.58	0.00	0.00	−3.48	−0.09
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	9.02	5.19	−3.83	0.00	0.00	−3.56	−0.27
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	9.83	5.88	−3.95	0.00	0.00	−3.90	−0.06
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	8.46	4.22	−4.24	0.00	0.00	−4.04	−0.20

Seed 27 of experiment cycle-002.e4-lka. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.