Simulation 1
Sri Lanka, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 1: median simulation of the experiment's 30. Capability index 8.11 at the 1996 position, 6.54 in 2026; 132 actions over 30 rounds and 5 shocks.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 1
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 12 (a poor simulation (10th percentile)), 27 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 1996 position to 2026.
- Capability index
- 6.54 (−1.58)
- From 8.11
- Rank by index
- 90
- From 67
- Domains at Tier 1
- 0
- From 0
- Events
- 5 shocks
- 0 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1997 |
| 8.12 +0.010 | |
| 1998 |
| 8.14 +0.021 | |
| 1999 |
| 8.17 +0.026 | |
| 2000 |
| 8.20 +0.029 | |
| 2001 |
| 8.23 +0.029 | |
| 2002 |
| 8.26 +0.028 | |
| 2003 |
| 8.28 +0.024 | |
| 2004 |
| Core disaster | 7.96 −0.317 |
| 2005 |
| 7.98 +0.014 | |
| 2006 |
| 7.99 +0.011 | |
| 2007 |
| 8.00 +0.011 | |
| 2008 |
| Global funding seizure | 7.80 −0.200 |
| 2009 |
| 7.80 +0.004 | |
| 2010 |
| 7.81 +0.007 | |
| 2011 |
| 7.82 +0.008 | |
| 2012 |
| 7.83 +0.006 | |
| 2013 |
| 7.83 +0.006 | |
| 2014 |
| 7.84 +0.008 | |
| 2015 |
| 7.85 +0.010 | |
| 2016 |
| 7.86 +0.010 | |
| 2017 |
| 7.87 +0.011 | |
| 2018 |
| 7.88 +0.011 | |
| 2019 |
| 7.90 +0.013 | |
| 2020 |
| Severe pandemic | 7.53 −0.365 |
| 2021 |
| 7.54 +0.005 | |
| 2022 |
| Global funding seizureLegitimacy rupture | 6.61 −0.926 |
| 2023 |
| 6.60 −0.009 | |
| 2024 | No actions | 6.58 −0.025 | |
| 2025 | No actions | 6.56 −0.021 | |
| 2026 |
| 6.54 −0.019 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 1996 | 2001 | 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | 2021 | 2026 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| National Security | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| Human Capital | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| Information & Influence | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 |
| Governance & Integrity | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 |
| Financial Strength | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 20 | 20 | 24 | 24 | 24 | 25 | 25 |
| Production & Innovation | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 |
| Trade & Investment | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds, this one among them: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −0.591 | −43.6 | 0.00 |
| No shocks | +2.268 | +154.8 | 0.00 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | +0.008 | +0.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | +0.008 | +0.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.001 | −0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.002 | −0.3 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | +0.008 | +0.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.737 | +48.8 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.462 | +32.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.492 | +34.5 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 1996 | 2026 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Land Power | National Security | 8.80 | 10.86 | +2.06 | +2.84 | −0.02 | −0.68 | −0.07 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 11.68 | 13.49 | +1.81 | +3.13 | −0.01 | −1.09 | −0.23 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 9.07 | 10.16 | +1.09 | +3.39 | −0.01 | −2.11 | −0.18 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 8.15 | 8.71 | +0.56 | +1.43 | −0.02 | −0.76 | −0.09 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 9.81 | 10.28 | +0.47 | +2.30 | −0.01 | −1.58 | −0.24 |
| Air Power | National Security | 5.77 | 6.14 | +0.37 | +1.26 | −0.01 | −0.79 | −0.10 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 6.14 | 6.36 | +0.22 | +1.06 | −0.01 | −0.79 | −0.04 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 9.72 | 9.90 | +0.18 | +1.80 | −0.02 | −1.05 | −0.55 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 0.03 | 0.00 | −0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.93 | −0.03 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 7.40 | 7.28 | −0.12 | +1.78 | −0.01 | −1.60 | −0.29 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 8.20 | 8.04 | −0.16 | +0.75 | −0.01 | −0.79 | −0.11 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 8.77 | 8.49 | −0.28 | +2.03 | −0.01 | −2.22 | −0.07 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 9.22 | 8.77 | −0.45 | +1.41 | 0.00 | −1.67 | −0.18 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 9.07 | 8.46 | −0.61 | +0.67 | 0.00 | −1.20 | −0.08 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 8.04 | 7.41 | −0.63 | +0.75 | 0.00 | −1.41 | +0.03 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 8.50 | 7.77 | −0.73 | +0.68 | 0.00 | −1.40 | −0.01 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 8.44 | 7.70 | −0.74 | +0.68 | 0.00 | −1.40 | −0.01 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 10.40 | 9.59 | −0.81 | +2.47 | −0.01 | −3.29 | +0.03 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 9.75 | 8.89 | −0.86 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −1.03 | +0.18 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 8.22 | 7.34 | −0.88 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −1.05 | +0.18 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 10.93 | 9.92 | −1.01 | +0.41 | −0.01 | −1.27 | −0.14 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 7.53 | 6.52 | −1.01 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −0.84 | −0.15 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 8.52 | 7.48 | −1.04 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −1.05 | +0.01 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 9.09 | 7.96 | −1.13 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −1.04 | −0.08 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.80 | 9.64 | −1.16 | +0.25 | −0.01 | −1.23 | −0.17 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 8.11 | 6.94 | −1.17 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −1.06 | −0.11 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 11.90 | 10.73 | −1.17 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −0.99 | −0.17 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 7.86 | 6.66 | −1.20 | +0.37 | 0.00 | −1.46 | −0.10 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 3.74 | 2.51 | −1.23 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −0.89 | −0.34 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 5.10 | 3.86 | −1.24 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −0.87 | −0.37 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 4.60 | 3.34 | −1.26 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −1.22 | −0.03 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 8.72 | 7.46 | −1.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.24 | −0.02 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 1.95 | 0.66 | −1.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.27 | −0.02 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 3.32 | 2.02 | −1.30 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −1.25 | −0.04 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 1.78 | 0.48 | −1.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.27 | −0.03 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 3.08 | 1.76 | −1.32 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.25 | −0.07 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.37 | 8.99 | −1.38 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −1.24 | −0.12 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 3.95 | 2.56 | −1.39 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −1.23 | −0.15 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.43 | 9.01 | −1.42 | +0.72 | −0.01 | −1.62 | −0.52 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 2.81 | 1.33 | −1.48 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.25 | −0.22 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 11.35 | 9.84 | −1.51 | +0.72 | −0.01 | −1.90 | −0.33 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 2.67 | 1.16 | −1.51 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.48 | −0.04 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 9.37 | 7.84 | −1.53 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −1.25 | −0.27 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 10.75 | 9.21 | −1.54 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −1.51 | −0.01 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 4.97 | 3.41 | −1.56 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.32 | −0.24 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 6.36 | 4.80 | −1.56 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −1.30 | −0.26 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 8.44 | 6.82 | −1.62 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −1.56 | −0.05 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 8.65 | 7.03 | −1.62 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −1.55 | −0.07 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 6.26 | 4.57 | −1.69 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −1.61 | −0.07 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 8.23 | 6.51 | −1.72 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −1.56 | −0.15 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 5.43 | 3.69 | −1.74 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −1.21 | −0.53 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 6.12 | 4.22 | −1.90 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −1.60 | −0.29 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 8.45 | 6.35 | −2.10 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −2.08 | −0.02 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.61 | 8.39 | −2.22 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −1.75 | −0.46 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 7.77 | 5.51 | −2.26 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −2.10 | −0.15 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 7.12 | 4.79 | −2.33 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −2.11 | −0.21 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 8.61 | 6.22 | −2.39 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −2.08 | −0.31 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 6.85 | 4.44 | −2.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.46 | +0.05 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 7.99 | 5.57 | −2.42 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −2.35 | −0.06 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 11.02 | 8.52 | −2.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.36 | −0.13 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.78 | 8.22 | −2.56 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −1.95 | −0.60 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 10.31 | 7.73 | −2.58 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −2.44 | −0.13 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 10.23 | 7.58 | −2.65 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −2.44 | −0.20 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 10.14 | 7.44 | −2.70 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −2.45 | −0.24 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 9.13 | 6.25 | −2.88 | +1.23 | −0.01 | −3.88 | −0.22 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 7.63 | 4.62 | −3.01 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −2.52 | −0.48 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 9.42 | 6.08 | −3.34 | +0.42 | −0.01 | −3.51 | −0.25 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 8.22 | 4.79 | −3.43 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −3.19 | −0.23 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 9.86 | 6.28 | −3.58 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −3.48 | −0.09 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 9.59 | 5.85 | −3.74 | +1.54 | −0.01 | −4.57 | −0.71 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 9.83 | 5.89 | −3.94 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −3.90 | −0.04 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 9.02 | 5.06 | −3.96 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −3.56 | −0.40 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 8.46 | 4.25 | −4.21 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −4.04 | −0.16 |
Seed 1 of experiment cycle-002.e4-lka. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.