Median simulation · cycle-002.e4-per

Simulation 16

Peru, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 16: median simulation of the experiment's 30. Capability index 8.94 at the 1996 position, 6.34 in 2026; 175 actions over 30 rounds and 9 shocks.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 16

The experiment · The other representative simulations: 24 (a poor simulation (10th percentile)), 17 (a good simulation (90th percentile))

Outcome

From the 1996 position to 2026.

Capability index: 6.34 (−2.61); From 8.94
Rank by index: 93; From 60
Domains at Tier 1: 0; From 0
Events: 9 shocks; 1 upside event

Trajectory by domain

The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.

ShockUpside event

Capability index by round

Pathway, round by round

Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.

Round	Decision	Events	Index
1997	Buy Resource Infrastructure 12 Buy Investment Attraction & Projection 12 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 12 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 12 Buy Land Power 12	Core disaster	8.57 −0.372
1998	Buy Resource Infrastructure 12 Buy Investment Attraction & Projection 12 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 12 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 12 Buy Land Power 12	Global funding seizure	8.48 −0.089
1999	Buy Resource Infrastructure 11 Buy Investment Attraction & Projection 11 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 11 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 11 Buy Land Power 11		8.51 +0.026
2000	Buy Resource Infrastructure 11 Buy Investment Attraction & Projection 11 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 11 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 11 Buy Land Power 11	Legitimacy rupture	8.17 −0.337
2001	Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 4 Build Social Infrastructure 4 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 4 Build Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 4 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 4	Core disaster	7.89 −0.277
2002	Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 4 Build Social Infrastructure 4 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 4 Build Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 4 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 4		7.88 −0.010
2003	Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 4 Build Social Infrastructure 4 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 4 Build Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 4 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 4		7.87 −0.009
2004	Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 4 Build Social Infrastructure 4 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 4 Build Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 4 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 4		7.87 −0.004
2005	Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 4 Build Social Infrastructure 4 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 4 Build Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 4 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 4		7.87 −0.003
2006	Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 4 Build Social Infrastructure 4 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 4 Build Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 4 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 4 Build Transport Infrastructure 10 Build Resource Infrastructure 10 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 10 Build Social Infrastructure 10 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 10	Market access opening	7.93 +0.065
2007	Build Transport Infrastructure 10 Build Resource Infrastructure 10 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 10 Build Social Infrastructure 10 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 10	Core disaster	7.65 −0.283
2008	Build Transport Infrastructure 10 Build Resource Infrastructure 10 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 10 Build Social Infrastructure 10 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 10	Global funding seizure	7.53 −0.120
2009	Build Transport Infrastructure 10 Build Resource Infrastructure 10 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 10 Build Social Infrastructure 10 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 10		7.55 +0.017
2010	Build Transport Infrastructure 9 Build Resource Infrastructure 9 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 9 Build Social Infrastructure 9 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 9		7.56 +0.017
2011	Build Transport Infrastructure 9 Build Resource Infrastructure 9 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 9 Build Social Infrastructure 9 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 9 Build Early Childhood Development 4 Build Foundational Education 4 Build Social Infrastructure 4 Build Health System Capability 4 Build Resource Infrastructure 4		7.59 +0.022
2012	Build Early Childhood Development 4 Build Foundational Education 4 Build Social Infrastructure 4 Build Health System Capability 4 Build Resource Infrastructure 4		7.60 +0.018
2013	Build Early Childhood Development 4 Build Foundational Education 4 Build Social Infrastructure 4 Build Health System Capability 4 Build Resource Infrastructure 4		7.62 +0.016
2014	Build Early Childhood Development 4 Build Foundational Education 4 Build Social Infrastructure 4 Build Health System Capability 4 Build Resource Infrastructure 4		7.63 +0.015
2015	Build Early Childhood Development 4 Build Foundational Education 4 Build Social Infrastructure 4 Build Health System Capability 4 Build Resource Infrastructure 4		7.65 +0.013
2016	Build Early Childhood Development 4 Build Foundational Education 4 Build Social Infrastructure 4 Build Health System Capability 4 Build Resource Infrastructure 4 Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 4 Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 4 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 4 Build Health System Capability 4 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 4		7.67 +0.017
2017	Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 4 Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 4 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 4 Build Health System Capability 4 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 4		7.68 +0.016
2018	Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 4 Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 4 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 4 Build Health System Capability 4 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 4		7.70 +0.017
2019	Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 4 Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 4 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 4 Build Health System Capability 4 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 4		7.72 +0.018
2020	Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 4 Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 4 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 4 Build Health System Capability 4 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 4 Build Health System Capability 10 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 10 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 10 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 10 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 10	Severe pandemicLegitimacy rupture	6.59 −1.122
2021	Build Health System Capability 10 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 10 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 10 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 10 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 10		6.61 +0.016
2022	Build Health System Capability 8 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 8 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 8 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 8 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 8 Build Internal Security & Order 3 Build Social Infrastructure 3 Build Resource Infrastructure 3 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 3 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 3		6.62 +0.012
2023	Build Internal Security & Order 3 Build Social Infrastructure 3 Build Resource Infrastructure 3 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 3 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 3	Core disaster	6.35 −0.277
2024	Build Internal Security & Order 3 Build Social Infrastructure 3 Build Resource Infrastructure 3 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 3 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 3		6.35 +0.001
2025	Build Internal Security & Order 3 Build Social Infrastructure 3 Build Resource Infrastructure 3 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 3 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 3		6.34 −0.010
2026	Build Internal Security & Order 3 Build Social Infrastructure 3 Build Resource Infrastructure 3 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 3 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 3		6.34 +0.001

Credits

What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.

Tiers by round

Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.

Domain	1996					2001					2006					2011					2016					2021					2026
Critical Technology	9	9	9	9	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11
Strategic Infrastructure	6	6	6	5	5	6	5	5	5	5	5	6	5	5	5	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4
National Security	6	7	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	8	8
Human Capital	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	13	13	13	13	13	13	13
Information & Influence	7	7	7	7	8	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	11	11	11	12	12	12	12
Governance & Integrity	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	14	14	14	14
Financial Strength	14	15	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	17	18	18	18	18	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	21	21	22	22	22	22	20
Production & Innovation	12	13	14	14	14	14	14	14	15	15	14	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	16	16	16	16	18	18	18	18	19	19	19
Trade & Investment	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	8	8	8	7	7	6	6	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	7	7	7	7	7	7	7

Probes

What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.

Probe	Index	Score sum	Tier 1
Hold instead of the method	−1.012	−73.8	0.00
No shocks	+3.775	+265.4	+1.00
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0	0.00
Without the 1st largest decision	−0.005	−0.4	0.00
Without the 2nd largest decision	−0.016	−1.1	0.00
Without the 3rd largest decision	−0.009	−0.6	0.00
Without the 4th largest decision	−0.040	−2.8	0.00
Without the 5th largest decision	−0.005	−0.5	0.00
Without the 1st largest shock	+1.012	+71.3	0.00
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.651	+46.0	0.00
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.543	+38.5	0.00

Every group over the simulation

Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	1996	2026	Change	Invested	Events	Graph
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	11.57	14.79	+3.22	+6.44	−2.94	−0.29
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.74	15.08	+2.34	+4.85	−2.23	−0.29
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	9.88	10.36	+0.48	+5.08	−4.23	−0.36
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.34	11.57	+0.23	+2.50	−2.22	−0.05
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	−2.53	−0.02
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	9.71	9.50	−0.21	+1.34	−1.53	−0.02
Health System Capability	Human Capital	10.00	9.76	−0.24	+3.52	−3.56	−0.21
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	10.16	9.46	−0.70	+1.52	−1.83	−0.39
Land Power	National Security	11.25	10.44	−0.81	+2.16	−2.26	−0.71
Foundational Education	Human Capital	9.96	9.04	−0.92	+1.61	−2.41	−0.12
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	7.96	6.99	−0.97	+1.45	−2.20	−0.22
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	9.97	8.98	−0.99	+2.68	−3.44	−0.23
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	8.67	7.57	−1.10	+1.11	−1.82	−0.39
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	8.01	6.87	−1.14	+1.17	−2.29	−0.02
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	11.60	10.34	−1.26	+2.34	−3.41	−0.18
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.50	9.90	−1.60	+1.33	−2.20	−0.73
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	5.16	3.54	−1.62	0.00	−1.56	−0.05
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	4.70	3.05	−1.65	0.00	−1.58	−0.07
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	2.51	0.81	−1.70	0.00	−1.63	−0.07
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	3.26	1.56	−1.70	0.00	−1.61	−0.09
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	2.83	1.11	−1.72	0.00	−1.62	−0.10
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	4.63	2.83	−1.80	0.00	−1.58	−0.22
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	11.35	9.54	−1.81	+5.61	−6.62	−0.81
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	5.32	3.47	−1.85	0.00	−1.56	−0.29
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	9.84	7.98	−1.86	0.00	−1.73	−0.13
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	10.06	8.12	−1.94	+0.51	−2.23	−0.22
Advanced Education	Human Capital	9.96	7.96	−2.00	0.00	−1.91	−0.09
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	5.82	3.78	−2.04	0.00	−1.55	−0.49
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	9.23	7.17	−2.06	0.00	−1.94	−0.12
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	8.76	6.69	−2.07	0.00	−1.95	−0.11
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	8.35	6.15	−2.20	0.00	−1.97	−0.23
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	9.95	7.59	−2.36	0.00	−2.18	−0.17
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	8.11	5.75	−2.36	0.00	−2.33	−0.03
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	10.61	8.12	−2.49	0.00	−2.16	−0.32
Maritime Power	National Security	9.06	6.52	−2.54	0.00	−2.22	−0.32
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	7.77	5.18	−2.59	0.00	−2.26	−0.33
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	3.94	1.34	−2.60	0.00	−2.46	−0.14
Air Power	National Security	10.19	7.57	−2.62	0.00	−2.18	−0.45
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	6.47	3.80	−2.67	0.00	−2.52	−0.15
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	6.05	3.37	−2.68	0.00	−2.42	−0.26
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	10.71	8.02	−2.69	+2.48	−4.80	−0.37
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	5.82	3.11	−2.71	0.00	−2.33	−0.38
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	9.20	6.47	−2.73	0.00	−2.70	−0.04
Space Operations	National Security	4.34	1.54	−2.80	0.00	−2.38	−0.42
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	9.99	7.15	−2.84	0.00	−2.68	−0.17
Population Health	Human Capital	9.32	6.45	−2.87	0.00	−2.57	−0.29
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	9.53	6.60	−2.93	0.00	−2.31	−0.61
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.95	8.98	−2.97	0.00	−2.43	−0.55
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	9.08	6.06	−3.02	0.00	−2.71	−0.31
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	9.90	6.87	−3.03	0.00	−2.68	−0.34
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	6.22	3.14	−3.08	0.00	−2.80	−0.27
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	11.84	8.62	−3.22	0.00	−2.94	−0.27
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	9.33	6.06	−3.27	0.00	−3.11	−0.16
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	10.28	6.97	−3.31	0.00	−3.13	−0.18
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	9.35	5.88	−3.47	0.00	−3.11	−0.36
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	7.67	4.15	−3.52	0.00	−3.18	−0.35
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	11.57	8.04	−3.53	+1.58	−4.87	−0.25
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	9.52	5.86	−3.66	0.00	−3.10	−0.56
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	9.34	5.64	−3.70	0.00	−3.58	−0.12
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	8.84	4.87	−3.97	0.00	−3.65	−0.33
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	9.74	5.72	−4.02	0.00	−3.50	−0.53
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	9.78	5.73	−4.05	0.00	−3.79	−0.26
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	8.74	4.61	−4.13	0.00	−3.84	−0.28
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	11.56	7.42	−4.14	0.00	−4.08	−0.06
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	9.53	5.35	−4.18	0.00	−3.76	−0.42
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	10.06	5.81	−4.25	0.00	−3.73	−0.51
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	11.81	7.44	−4.37	0.00	−4.06	−0.32
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	8.90	4.27	−4.63	0.00	−3.79	−0.84
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	8.77	3.99	−4.78	0.00	−4.51	−0.28
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	8.31	3.46	−4.85	0.00	−4.50	−0.35
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	10.18	4.94	−5.24	0.00	−4.63	−0.61
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	10.37	4.49	−5.88	0.00	−5.78	−0.09
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	10.32	3.65	−6.67	0.00	−6.49	−0.18

Seed 16 of experiment cycle-002.e4-per. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.