E4 · cycle-002.e4-per

Peru, scripted, 30 years from 1996

30 simulations of 30 rounds from the 1996 position. Peru decides by the scripted method; scripted events: Core disaster in year 1, Global funding seizure in year 2, Legitimacy rupture in year 4, Core disaster in year 5, Market access opening in year 10, Core disaster in year 11, Global funding seizure in year 12, Severe pandemic in year 24, Legitimacy rupture in year 24, Core disaster in year 27.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seeds 1–30 · elasticity sampled within each bracket

The same configuration in other cycles: cycle 3.

Every simulation · Compare with another experiment · More experiments like this

Not a forecast

Simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values, to compare methods and test the model. Other nations stay at their 2026 ratings throughout.

Outcome across simulations

The median at 2026, with the 10th to the 90th percentile of the 30 simulations under it.

Capability index: 6.34 (−2.61); From 8.94; 6.33 to 6.35
Rank by index: 93; From 60; 92 to 93
Domains at Tier 1: 0; From 0; 0 to 0
Tier rank: 49; From 66; 49 to 49

Capability index by round

Rank by index, by round

Every objective at the position and at the horizon
Objective	1996	10th percentile	Median	90th percentile	Better
Capability indexprimary	8.94	6.33	6.34	6.35	higher
Rank by index	60	92	93	93	lower
Tier rank	66	49	49	49	lower
Domains at Tier 1	0	0	0	0	higher
Score sum	640.1	460.1	460.9	461.6	higher
Goal-weighted score	640.1	460.1	460.9	461.6	higher
Resilient score	640.1	460.9 (mean score sum over the simulations)			higher

The capability index is the mean of the three dimensions, each the mean of its domains, each the mean of its groups. Tiers are Pareto layers within each domain; the tier rank orders nations by domains held at Tier 1, then Tier 2, and so on. The goal-weighted score is the score sum unless the experiment sets a goal. The primary objective is the one the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it.

Credits

What each round’s credits went on in the median simulation. Across all simulations, build took 87 per cent, buy took 13 per cent, partner took 0 per cent of the 1,072 credits a simulation spent on actions.

Against history

Started from a reconstructed 1996 position and played along the pathway and shocks Peru actually had, then scored against the 2026 ratings. The position is an estimate, so part of any error is the reconstruction's. The calibration summary across all fifty nations is on the cycle's page under Loop.

Index 1996: 8.94; reconstructed
Observed 2026: 8.61; the Index's rating
Simulated 2026: 6.34; 6.27 to 6.40
Skill against persistence: −1.59; group error 2.32 against 0.90 if nothing changed

Domain	1996	Observed	Simulated	Bias	Direction
Critical Technology	4.46	3.07	2.51 2.5–2.6	−0.56	right
Strategic Infrastructure	10.16	10.25	8.53 8.4–8.6	−1.72	wrong
National Security	8.08	6.49	5.89 5.8–6.0	−0.60	right
Human Capital	9.51	9.50	7.85 7.8–7.9	−1.65	wrong
Information & Influence	8.86	8.01	5.62 5.6–5.7	−2.39	right
Governance & Integrity	9.30	9.88	7.77 7.7–7.8	−2.12	wrong
Financial Strength	10.90	11.24	6.95 6.9–7.0	−4.30	wrong
Production & Innovation	9.16	8.75	5.13 5.0–5.2	−3.62	right
Trade & Investment	10.06	10.25	6.80 6.7–6.9	−3.45	wrong

The history it was played under: shocks and events

1997 · S07 × 0.6 El Niño 1997-98 caused severe flooding, damaged transport and agriculture, and slowed the economy.
1998 · S02 × 0.4 The Asian and Russian crises transmitted through capital outflows and lower commodity prices, though Peru avoided sovereign stress.
2000 · S05 × 0.7 Fujimori's disputed re-election and the Montesinos corruption videos broke effective government and led to his resignation.
2001 · S07 × 0.4 The Arequipa earthquake killed scores and damaged housing and infrastructure in the south.
2006 · S12 × 0.6 Peru signed the US-Peru Trade Promotion Agreement, widening market access and attracting investment.
2007 · S07 × 0.5 The Pisco earthquake destroyed buildings and infrastructure and killed hundreds.
2008 · S02 × 0.6 The global financial crisis hit exports and capital flows, but Peru's strong buffers cushioned the shock.
2020 · S10 × 1.4 COVID-19 overwhelmed Peru's health system and produced one of the world's highest excess mortality rates.
2020 · S05 × 0.5 A constitutional crisis after Vizcarra's removal produced three presidents in a week in November 2020.
2023 · S07 × 0.4 Cyclone Yaku and coastal El Niño brought floods and landslides that damaged northern infrastructure.

The pathway: what it prioritised, period by period

1997–2000 · buy · 5% each Fujimori's government pursued privatisation, foreign investment in mining and telecoms, fiscal stabilisation and military-led counterinsurgency. (Resource Infrastructure, Investment Attraction & Projection, Trade Policy & Market Access, Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance, Land Power)
2001–2006 · build · 2% each Toledo's democratic transition prioritised institutional rebuilding, social funds, decentralisation, rural programmes and negotiation of the US free trade agreement. (Political Institutions & Civic Participation, Social Infrastructure, Trade Policy & Market Access, Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls, Agriculture & Food Infrastructure)
2006–2011 · build · 5% each García's second term pushed a transport infrastructure boom, mining expansion, free trade implementation, social infrastructure and macro-fiscal discipline. (Transport Infrastructure, Resource Infrastructure, Trade Policy & Market Access, Social Infrastructure, Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance)
2011–2016 · build · 2% each Humala's administration emphasised social inclusion through early childhood and school programmes, health reform and continued mining investment. (Early Childhood Development, Foundational Education, Social Infrastructure, Health System Capability, Resource Infrastructure)
2016–2020 · build · 2% each The Odebrecht scandal and political crisis drove anti-corruption, justice and public administration reforms alongside health and digital delivery improvements. (Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption, Justice System & Fundamental Rights, Government Effectiveness & Public Administration, Health System Capability, Communications & Digital Infrastructure)
2020–2022 · build · 5% each The COVID-19 emergency forced health system expansion, fiscal and monetary support, and rapid digitalisation of public services. (Health System Capability, Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance, Monetary & Currency Capability, Government Effectiveness & Public Administration, Communications & Digital Infrastructure)
2022–2026 · build · 2% each Castillo and Boluarte faced political unrest and prioritised internal security, social and agricultural infrastructure, mining revenue and fiscal adjustment. (Internal Security & Order, Social Infrastructure, Resource Infrastructure, Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance, Agriculture & Food Infrastructure)

Reconstruction notes (deepseek-v4-pro): The main uncertainties lie in the Fujimori-era scores for governance and public integrity, where official data were politicised and the informal economy complicates measurement. Subnational variation is large, with Lima far ahead of rural and Amazonian regions, so many national scores conceal deep internal gaps. Frontier technology scores are inferred from very low R&D intensity and dependence on imported technology.

Report

Written from the simulation record by the loop's narrator. Every figure names the query it came from, in square brackets.

Batch cycle-002. Model 0.1.0, graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.0. 30 simulations, seeds 1 to 30; probes on 10. Every figure is a distribution over simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values; it shows what the model implies under these settings, not what will happen. Other nations are frozen at their 2026 ratings. No reconstructed historical data is used in this experiment.

Headline

Peru played 30 rounds from 1996 under the scripted method, with scripted events, 30 times. Its capability index moved from 8.94 to a median of 6.34 (−2.61), with 90 per cent of simulations between 6.32 and 6.35 [experiment_objectives].

Starting position

In 1996 the nation ranks 60 on the index against the frozen field, holds 0 of nine domains at Tier 1 and has a tier rank of 66. Its base income is 232 credits a year, calibrated so that its 2026 position is affordable with headroom for investment.

What was decided

A simulation spent a median of 1,072 credits on moves. The five groups that took most were Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance (build, 147 credits, 13.7 per cent); Trade Policy & Market Access (build, 128 credits, 12.0 per cent); Social Infrastructure (build, 122 credits, 11.4 per cent); Resource Infrastructure (build, 98 credits, 9.1 per cent); Health System Capability (build, 70 credits, 6.5 per cent) [experiment_decisions_by_group]. By mode: build 87 per cent, buy 13 per cent [experiment_decisions_by_group]. Concentration of spending (HHI) had a median of 0.084, and the most repeated action appeared in 77 per cent of rounds.

The leading domain by period: rounds 1 to 5, Trade & Investment; rounds 6 to 10, Strategic Infrastructure; rounds 11 to 15, Strategic Infrastructure; rounds 16 to 20, Human Capital; rounds 21 to 25, Governance & Integrity; rounds 26 to 30, Strategic Infrastructure [experiment_spend_by_period].

What the world did

A median simulation saw 9 shocks and 1 upside events. The most damaging per firing were S10 (30 firings in 30 simulations, −62.5 points each); S07 (120 firings in 30 simulations, −23.4 points each); S05 (60 firings in 30 simulations, −22.4 points each) [experiment_shocks]. Upside events fired 30 times across all simulations [experiment_shocks].

The groups that lost most to shocks, per simulation: Trade Facilitation & Logistics −6.87; Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance −6.71; Financial System Depth & Access −5.88; Investment Attraction & Projection −5.19 [experiment_shock_damage_by_group].

The edges that carried most change through the graph, per simulation: Transport Infrastructure to Trade Facilitation & Logistics (−0.09 points); Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance to Force Generation & Mobilisation (−0.31 points); Economic Output & Productivity to Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance (−0.66 points) [experiment_propagation_by_edge].

Where it ended

At 2026 the median rank is 93 (5th to 95th percentile 91 to 93), the median count of Tier 1 domains 0 (0 to 0) and the median tier rank 49; the resilient score, the mean score sum over simulations, is 461 [experiment_objectives].

Why

Without shocks the index ends +3.775 higher on average, so the shocks cost about 3.775 index points [experiment_probe_attribution].

Holding instead of following this method changes the index by −1.011: that is the method's worth against doing nothing [experiment_probe_attribution].

Removing any single one of the five largest actions changes the index by between −0.040 and −0.005, for example 1997 buy Resource Infrastructure (12 credits) [experiment_probe_attribution]. The largest actions by credits come late, when income is highest, and are rarely the most valuable.

Removing the largest shock of a simulation raises the index by +1.012 on average [experiment_probe_attribution].

The replay probe reproduces the simulations exactly (index change 0.000000), so the attributions are clean [experiment_probe_attribution].

Surprises

tier_jump (warn): largest gain in one domain within five years: 3 tiers (14 simulations above 2).

same_action (warn): the most repeated move (group and mode) appears in a median 77% of rounds.

retired_words (warn): e4-per/report.md: 'simulations' 1 time(s), first near line 38; use 'simulations'.

The simulation furthest from the median (seed 15) ends −0.03 from it, with 9 shocks and 1 upside events [experiment_outlier_simulations].

Comparison

This is the baseline (hold) experiment, or there is none for this nation in the batch.

Against history: from a reconstructed index of 8.94 the model ends at 6.34, where the 2026 ratings put it at 8.61. Group scores miss by 2.32 points on average, against 0.89 for assuming nothing changed (skill −1.59); the change in each domain has the right sign in 44 per cent of domains. Furthest below history: financial strength (−4.30); furthest above: critical technology (−0.56) [experiment_against_history]. The starting position is reconstructed, so part of the error is the reconstruction's.

What each decision and shock was worth

Counterfactual probes on the first 10 seeds: the same simulations with one thing changed, paired seed by seed. A removed decision or shock is taken out and the other decisions replayed unchanged, so the difference is that item's worth.

Probe	Index	Score sum	Tier 1	For example
Hold instead of the method	−1.012	−73.8	0.00
No shocks	+3.775	+265.4	+1.00
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0	0.00
Without the 1st largest decision	−0.005	−0.4	0.00	1997 buy Resource Infrastructure (12 credits)
Without the 2nd largest decision	−0.016	−1.1	0.00	1997 buy Investment Attraction & Projection (12 credits)
Without the 3rd largest decision	−0.009	−0.6	0.00	1997 build Trade Policy & Market Access (12 credits)
Without the 4th largest decision	−0.040	−2.8	0.00	1997 build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance (12 credits)
Without the 5th largest decision	−0.005	−0.5	0.00	1997 buy Land Power (12 credits)
Without the 1st largest shock	+1.012	+71.3	0.00	2020 S10 (-62.6 points)
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.651	+46.0	0.00	1997 S07 (-28.0 points)
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.543	+38.5	0.00	2000 S05 (-25.9 points)

Simulations

Three simulations told round by round, each on its own page: the one nearest the median index at the horizon, and those nearest the 10th and the 90th percentile. Every one of the 30 is listed with its outcome on the simulations page.

All 30 simulations

Events

How often each shock and upside event began across the simulations. Shocks come from the ten downside scenarios and upside events from the ten upside ones, at their yearly likelihood.

Event	Kind	Simulations	Mean round	Points
Global funding seizure S02	Shock	100 per cent	7.0	−10.4
Legitimacy rupture S05	Shock	100 per cent	14.0	−22.4
Core disaster S07	Shock	100 per cent	11.0	−23.4
Severe pandemic S10	Shock	100 per cent	24.0	−62.5
Market access opening S12	Upside	100 per cent	10.0	+11.6

Groups across simulations

Every capability group: its position, and its median and spread at the horizon across the simulations, with what the method spent on it.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	1996	2026	Change	Levels invested	Credits
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	11.57	14.71 14.58 to 14.79	+3.14	6.45	128
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.74	15.10 15.04 to 15.22	+2.36	4.85	143
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	9.88	10.32 10.27 to 10.38	+0.44	5.09	123
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.34	11.55 11.53 to 11.58	+0.21	2.50	47
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	0.00	0.00 0.00 to 0.00	0.00	0.00	0
Health System Capability	Human Capital	10.00	9.78 9.74 to 9.84	−0.22	3.52	70
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	9.71	9.49 9.48 to 9.50	−0.22	1.34	25
Land Power	National Security	11.25	10.59 10.42 to 10.65	−0.66	2.16	45
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	10.16	9.45 9.37 to 9.54	−0.71	1.53	23
Foundational Education	Human Capital	9.96	9.07 9.04 to 9.09	−0.89	1.61	23
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	7.96	7.05 6.99 to 7.09	−0.91	1.45	25
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	9.97	8.98 8.91 to 9.03	−0.99	2.68	59
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	8.67	7.65 7.59 to 7.72	−1.02	1.11	20
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	8.01	6.87 6.85 to 6.87	−1.14	1.17	20
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	11.60	10.36 10.33 to 10.39	−1.24	2.34	47
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.50	9.99 9.85 to 10.12	−1.51	1.33	41
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	5.16	3.55 3.54 to 3.57	−1.61	0.00	0
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	4.70	3.02 2.98 to 3.05	−1.68	0.00	0
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	2.51	0.82 0.81 to 0.83	−1.69	0.00	0
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	3.26	1.53 1.51 to 1.57	−1.73	0.00	0
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	2.83	1.10 1.07 to 1.13	−1.73	0.00	0
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	11.35	9.58 9.46 to 9.75	−1.77	5.60	147
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	4.63	2.81 2.78 to 2.87	−1.82	0.00	0
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	9.84	7.98 7.94 to 8.02	−1.86	0.00	0
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	5.32	3.41 3.32 to 3.49	−1.91	0.00	0
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	10.06	8.09 8.01 to 8.15	−1.97	0.51	16
Advanced Education	Human Capital	9.96	7.97 7.96 to 7.99	−1.99	0.00	0
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	9.23	7.18 7.16 to 7.20	−2.05	0.00	0
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	5.82	3.75 3.66 to 3.85	−2.07	0.00	0
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	8.76	6.66 6.63 to 6.71	−2.10	0.00	0
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	8.35	6.11 6.06 to 6.15	−2.24	0.00	0
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	8.11	5.76 5.75 to 5.76	−2.35	0.00	0
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	9.95	7.55 7.46 to 7.62	−2.40	0.00	0
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	10.61	8.20 8.12 to 8.30	−2.41	0.00	0
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	7.77	5.24 5.18 to 5.31	−2.53	0.00	0
Maritime Power	National Security	9.06	6.52 6.46 to 6.56	−2.54	0.00	0
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	3.94	1.36 1.33 to 1.38	−2.58	0.00	0
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	10.71	8.05 8.02 to 8.14	−2.66	2.48	45
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	6.47	3.79 3.74 to 3.83	−2.68	0.00	0
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	5.82	3.13 3.01 to 3.21	−2.69	0.00	0
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	9.20	6.48 6.47 to 6.48	−2.72	0.00	0
Air Power	National Security	10.19	7.47 7.41 to 7.59	−2.72	0.00	0
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	6.05	3.32 3.27 to 3.38	−2.73	0.00	0
Space Operations	National Security	4.34	1.49 1.39 to 1.54	−2.85	0.00	0
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	9.99	7.12 7.05 to 7.17	−2.87	0.00	0
Population Health	Human Capital	9.32	6.43 6.39 to 6.47	−2.89	0.00	0
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.95	8.96 8.79 to 9.07	−2.99	0.00	0
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	9.53	6.52 6.38 to 6.63	−3.01	0.00	0
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	9.08	6.07 5.99 to 6.14	−3.01	0.00	0
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	9.90	6.87 6.80 to 6.95	−3.03	0.00	0
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	6.22	3.13 3.04 to 3.20	−3.09	0.00	0
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	11.84	8.68 8.56 to 8.76	−3.16	0.00	0
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	9.33	6.04 6.02 to 6.08	−3.29	0.00	0
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	10.28	6.87 6.83 to 6.93	−3.41	0.00	0
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	11.57	8.07 8.01 to 8.11	−3.50	1.58	28
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	7.67	4.10 4.04 to 4.16	−3.57	0.00	0
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	9.52	5.93 5.77 to 6.10	−3.59	0.00	0
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	9.35	5.67 5.58 to 5.79	−3.68	0.00	0
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	9.34	5.65 5.61 to 5.68	−3.69	0.00	0
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	8.84	4.83 4.71 to 4.93	−4.01	0.00	0
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	9.78	5.74 5.69 to 5.79	−4.04	0.00	0
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	9.74	5.67 5.59 to 5.75	−4.07	0.00	0
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	11.56	7.45 7.42 to 7.47	−4.11	0.00	0
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	10.06	5.94 5.82 to 6.07	−4.12	0.00	0
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	8.74	4.61 4.52 to 4.71	−4.13	0.00	0
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	9.53	5.28 5.11 to 5.39	−4.25	0.00	0
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	11.81	7.50 7.36 to 7.62	−4.31	0.00	0
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	8.90	4.32 4.23 to 4.47	−4.58	0.00	0
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	8.77	4.05 4.00 to 4.11	−4.72	0.00	0
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	8.31	3.50 3.44 to 3.56	−4.81	0.00	0
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	10.18	5.00 4.86 to 5.12	−5.18	0.00	0
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	10.37	4.47 4.44 to 4.50	−5.90	0.00	0
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	10.32	3.65 3.61 to 3.68	−6.67	0.00	0

Checks

The automated checks run on this experiment before anything was written about it. A warning is a candidate finding for the improvement loop.

passcredits_conservedlargest gap between credits in and credits accounted for: 2.8e-13
passscores_in_boundsscores range 0.000 to 16.306
passno_nans0 missing values in the trajectory and objectives
passprobe_replay_reproducesthe recorded moves played back reproduce the simulation to within 0.0e+00 points (10 simulations)
passledger_balancesthe edge ledger sums to the propagated change to within 9.7e-07 points
passmove_without_shocklargest one-year move in a group with no shock landing: 0.63 points; 0% of simulations have one above 3
warntier_jumplargest gain in one domain within five years: 3 tiers (14 simulations above 2)
passall_tier1_from_outside_top10starting rank 60; 0 simulations reach Tier 1 in all nine domains
passsaturation_high0% of simulations end with a group at 20 that did not start there (median 0 groups)
passsaturation_low0% of simulations end with a group at 0 that did not start there (median 0 groups)
passspend_concentrationmedian concentration of spending across groups (HHI) 0.084; most funded group economic.financial_strength.fiscal_capacity_and_public_finance
warnsame_actionthe most repeated move (group and mode) appears in a median 77% of rounds

Settings and versions

Experiment cycle-002.e4-per. Every simulation records the model, graph and parameter versions, the scenario, the method and its seed, so it can be reproduced exactly.

Nation: Peru (PER)
Position: A reconstructed 1996 position, aligned to the Index's scale
Method: Scripted. Actions fixed in advance by the experiment: for a backcast, the nation's historical pathway.
Scenario: Scripted events: Core disaster in year 1, Global funding seizure in year 2, Legitimacy rupture in year 4, Core disaster in year 5, Market access opening in year 10, Core disaster in year 11, Global funding seizure in year 12, Severe pandemic in year 24, Legitimacy rupture in year 24, Core disaster in year 27
Objective: Capability index, the primary objective the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it
Horizon: 30 rounds, 1996 to 2026
Simulations: 30 seeds, 1 to 30. Every method in the batch faces the same draws for the same seed.
Graph elasticities: Drawn for each simulation, uniformly within each edge’s bracket
Income: Base credits 232.4 a round, moving with the economic groups
Versions: Model 0.1.0, Capability Dependency Graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.0
Batch: Backcast 1996-2026 (cycle-002), cycle 2 of the improvement loop
Runtime: 4.3 seconds in all; 1099 microseconds a round

Not a forecast: Every figure is a distribution over the simulations of a structural model, reported to compare methods and test the model. None is a prediction of what a nation will do or become.
Structural parameters: Costs, decay, vulnerability and credits are structural seed values with low or medium confidence, set by domain with single-group exceptions. Five groups have no defensible value in a single-nation model and are flagged in the parameter tables.
Other nations are frozen: One nation is simulated at a time. Every other nation stays at its 2026 rating, so rank and tiers are measured against a still field; where the simulated nation rises past others their own tiers are not re-sorted.
Starting depth and mode are defaults: The position is the National Capability Index ratings. How institutionalised each capability is, and how much was built, bought or partnered, have no data behind them yet and start from structural defaults.
Credits are calibrated, not measured: Each nation’s income is set so that its position is affordable with headroom that rises with its fiscal capacity. It is not yet fiscal capacity as a share of GDP.