Simulation 10
Philippines, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 10: median simulation of the experiment's 30. Capability index 9.40 at the 1996 position, 7.76 in 2026; 171 actions over 30 rounds and 7 shocks.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 10
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 25 (a poor simulation (10th percentile)), 9 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 1996 position to 2026.
- Capability index
- 7.76 (−1.64)
- From 9.40
- Rank by index
- 70
- From 53
- Domains at Tier 1
- 0
- From 0
- Events
- 7 shocks
- 0 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1997 |
| Global funding seizure | 9.26 −0.141 |
| 1998 |
| Breadbasket failure | 9.13 −0.126 |
| 1999 |
| 9.14 +0.011 | |
| 2000 |
| 9.15 +0.011 | |
| 2001 |
| Legitimacy rupture | 9.02 −0.134 |
| 2002 |
| 9.03 +0.009 | |
| 2003 |
| 9.04 +0.009 | |
| 2004 |
| 9.05 +0.012 | |
| 2005 |
| 9.06 +0.013 | |
| 2006 |
| 9.08 +0.019 | |
| 2007 |
| 9.11 +0.027 | |
| 2008 |
| Global funding seizure | 9.01 −0.094 |
| 2009 |
| Core disaster | 8.71 −0.308 |
| 2010 |
| 8.73 +0.020 | |
| 2011 |
| 8.73 +0.009 | |
| 2012 |
| 8.74 +0.006 | |
| 2013 |
| Core disaster | 8.13 −0.615 |
| 2014 |
| 8.12 −0.003 | |
| 2015 |
| 8.12 −0.008 | |
| 2016 |
| 8.12 0.000 | |
| 2017 |
| 8.12 +0.001 | |
| 2018 |
| 8.12 +0.003 | |
| 2019 |
| 8.13 +0.012 | |
| 2020 |
| Severe pandemic | 7.63 −0.500 |
| 2021 |
| 7.64 +0.013 | |
| 2022 |
| 7.66 +0.019 | |
| 2023 |
| 7.69 +0.027 | |
| 2024 |
| 7.72 +0.024 | |
| 2025 |
| 7.74 +0.020 | |
| 2026 |
| 7.76 +0.021 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 1996 | 2001 | 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | 2021 | 2026 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 |
| National Security | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| Human Capital | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| Information & Influence | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Governance & Integrity | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
| Financial Strength | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 |
| Production & Innovation | 12 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 |
| Trade & Investment | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds, this one among them: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −0.782 | −57.3 | 0.00 |
| No shocks | +2.436 | +171.3 | 0.00 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.005 | −0.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.006 | −0.5 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.006 | −0.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.005 | −0.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.006 | −0.5 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.780 | +55.2 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.588 | +41.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.452 | +32.0 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 1996 | 2026 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 9.02 | 11.70 | +2.68 | +5.54 | 0.00 | −2.56 | −0.30 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 9.58 | 12.13 | +2.55 | +4.08 | 0.00 | −1.36 | −0.17 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 7.80 | 9.59 | +1.79 | +5.07 | 0.00 | −3.02 | −0.25 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.72 | 12.36 | +1.64 | +3.33 | 0.00 | −1.64 | −0.05 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 10.62 | 12.11 | +1.49 | +4.70 | 0.00 | −3.06 | −0.16 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 11.62 | 12.37 | +0.75 | +2.18 | 0.00 | −1.39 | −0.03 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 11.73 | 12.05 | +0.32 | +3.02 | 0.00 | −2.51 | −0.20 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 9.40 | 9.62 | +0.22 | +1.59 | 0.00 | −1.24 | −0.12 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 10.84 | 10.88 | +0.04 | +1.45 | 0.00 | −1.31 | −0.11 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 10.61 | 10.38 | −0.23 | +1.86 | 0.00 | −1.69 | −0.40 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 0.36 | 0.00 | −0.36 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.34 | −0.04 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 9.53 | 8.98 | −0.55 | +1.62 | 0.00 | −1.82 | −0.34 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 6.83 | 5.88 | −0.95 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.93 | −0.02 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 2.95 | 1.88 | −1.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.99 | −0.08 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 6.97 | 5.89 | −1.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.93 | −0.15 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 5.08 | 4.00 | −1.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.96 | −0.12 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 4.91 | 3.80 | −1.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.96 | −0.15 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 4.34 | 3.22 | −1.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.97 | −0.15 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 7.34 | 6.21 | −1.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.93 | −0.20 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 4.69 | 3.56 | −1.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.96 | −0.17 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 10.12 | 8.86 | −1.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.16 | −0.10 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 8.72 | 7.44 | −1.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.19 | −0.09 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 10.24 | 8.93 | −1.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.26 | −0.05 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 7.69 | 6.37 | −1.32 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.21 | −0.11 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 10.99 | 9.64 | −1.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.33 | −0.02 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 6.75 | 5.36 | −1.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.23 | −0.17 |
| Air Power | National Security | 6.88 | 5.42 | −1.46 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.22 | −0.23 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 9.63 | 8.16 | −1.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.42 | −0.05 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 10.80 | 9.32 | −1.48 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.39 | −0.09 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 9.14 | 7.66 | −1.48 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.39 | −0.09 |
| Land Power | National Security | 9.33 | 7.77 | −1.56 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.18 | −0.38 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 5.70 | 4.14 | −1.56 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.25 | −0.31 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 9.51 | 7.94 | −1.57 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.42 | −0.15 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 13.06 | 11.45 | −1.61 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.58 | −0.03 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 9.65 | 8.00 | −1.65 | +0.81 | 0.00 | −1.85 | −0.61 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 7.32 | 5.66 | −1.66 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.50 | −0.16 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 5.18 | 3.50 | −1.68 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.25 | −0.42 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 10.11 | 8.41 | −1.70 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.36 | −0.34 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 8.11 | 6.41 | −1.70 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.45 | −0.25 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 7.28 | 5.53 | −1.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.76 | +0.02 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 9.93 | 8.18 | −1.75 | +0.77 | 0.00 | −2.17 | −0.34 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 5.31 | 3.55 | −1.76 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.64 | −0.12 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 11.22 | 9.37 | −1.85 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.62 | −0.23 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 12.12 | 10.26 | −1.86 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.60 | −0.26 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.56 | 8.70 | −1.86 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.70 | −0.16 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 10.86 | 8.96 | −1.90 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.49 | −0.41 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 11.71 | 9.73 | −1.98 | +0.84 | 0.00 | −2.63 | −0.19 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 6.61 | 4.56 | −2.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.71 | −0.34 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 5.46 | 3.34 | −2.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.80 | −0.33 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 9.50 | 7.37 | −2.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.25 | +0.12 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 13.33 | 11.20 | −2.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.71 | −0.42 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 10.07 | 7.92 | −2.15 | +0.90 | 0.00 | −2.66 | −0.39 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.63 | 10.39 | −2.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.81 | −0.42 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 12.42 | 10.04 | −2.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.32 | −0.05 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 12.79 | 10.36 | −2.43 | +0.79 | 0.00 | −2.91 | −0.31 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 9.20 | 6.70 | −2.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.26 | −0.24 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 12.25 | 9.75 | −2.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.61 | +0.10 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 9.65 | 7.14 | −2.51 | +2.23 | 0.00 | −4.98 | +0.24 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 11.34 | 8.78 | −2.56 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.46 | −0.10 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 7.58 | 5.02 | −2.56 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.30 | −0.26 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 9.52 | 6.88 | −2.64 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.25 | −0.39 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 10.69 | 7.93 | −2.76 | +2.21 | 0.00 | −4.51 | −0.46 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 10.00 | 7.23 | −2.77 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.45 | −0.33 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 11.98 | 9.11 | −2.87 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.72 | −0.16 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 10.72 | 7.82 | −2.90 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.66 | −0.25 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 9.36 | 6.35 | −3.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.60 | −0.41 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 8.98 | 5.90 | −3.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.72 | −0.37 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.41 | 7.32 | −3.09 | +0.67 | 0.00 | −3.10 | −0.66 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 9.07 | 5.88 | −3.19 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.71 | −0.47 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 8.99 | 5.69 | −3.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.94 | −0.36 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 9.94 | 6.48 | −3.46 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.36 | −0.11 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 8.58 | 5.08 | −3.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.18 | −0.32 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 11.36 | 7.38 | −3.98 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.90 | −0.08 |
Seed 10 of experiment cycle-002.e4-phl. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.