E4 · cycle-002.e4-phl

Philippines, scripted, 30 years from 1996

30 simulations of 30 rounds from the 1996 position. Philippines decides by the scripted method; scripted events: Global funding seizure in year 1, Breadbasket failure in year 2, Legitimacy rupture in year 5, Global funding seizure in year 12, Core disaster in year 13, Core disaster in year 17, Severe pandemic in year 24.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seeds 1–30 · elasticity sampled within each bracket

The same configuration in other cycles: cycle 3.

Every simulation · Compare with another experiment · More experiments like this

Not a forecast

Simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values, to compare methods and test the model. Other nations stay at their 2026 ratings throughout.

Outcome across simulations

The median at 2026, with the 10th to the 90th percentile of the 30 simulations under it.

Capability index: 7.76 (−1.64); From 9.40; 7.75 to 7.77
Rank by index: 70; From 53; 69 to 70
Domains at Tier 1: 0; From 0; 0 to 0
Tier rank: 64; From 51; 64 to 64

Capability index by round

Rank by index, by round

Every objective at the position and at the horizon
Objective	1996	10th percentile	Median	90th percentile	Better
Capability indexprimary	9.40	7.75	7.76	7.77	higher
Rank by index	53	69	70	70	lower
Tier rank	51	64	64	64	lower
Domains at Tier 1	0	0	0	0	higher
Score sum	665.3	552.2	553.0	553.6	higher
Goal-weighted score	665.3	552.2	553.0	553.6	higher
Resilient score	665.3	553.0 (mean score sum over the simulations)			higher

The capability index is the mean of the three dimensions, each the mean of its domains, each the mean of its groups. Tiers are Pareto layers within each domain; the tier rank orders nations by domains held at Tier 1, then Tier 2, and so on. The goal-weighted score is the score sum unless the experiment sets a goal. The primary objective is the one the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it.

Credits

What each round’s credits went on in the median simulation. Across all simulations, build took 72 per cent, buy took 3 per cent, partner took 25 per cent of the 811 credits a simulation spent on actions.

Against history

Started from a reconstructed 1996 position and played along the pathway and shocks Philippines actually had, then scored against the 2026 ratings. The position is an estimate, so part of any error is the reconstruction's. The calibration summary across all fifty nations is on the cycle's page under Loop.

Index 1996: 9.40; reconstructed
Observed 2026: 8.83; the Index's rating
Simulated 2026: 7.76; 7.71 to 7.81
Skill against persistence: −0.75; group error 1.78 against 1.02 if nothing changed

Domain	1996	Observed	Simulated	Bias	Direction
Critical Technology	5.57	4.04	4.36 4.3–4.4	+0.32	right
Strategic Infrastructure	9.25	9.64	8.28 8.2–8.3	−1.36	wrong
National Security	7.08	6.90	5.72 5.7–5.8	−1.18	wrong
Human Capital	10.08	9.19	8.93 8.9–9.0	−0.25	right
Information & Influence	11.46	9.97	9.51 9.5–9.6	−0.46	right
Governance & Integrity	10.18	9.57	9.47 9.4–9.5	−0.10	right
Financial Strength	11.42	10.67	8.62 8.6–8.7	−2.06	right
Production & Innovation	9.10	9.17	6.27 6.2–6.3	−2.90	wrong
Trade & Investment	10.43	10.36	8.65 8.6–8.7	−1.71	wrong

The history it was played under: shocks and events

1997 · S02 × 0.6 The Asian financial crisis hit the peso and raised non-performing loans, but the Philippines avoided sovereign default and a full banking collapse.
1998 · S06 × 0.5 A severe El Niño drought reduced rice and agricultural output, forcing large rice imports and food price inflation.
2001 · S05 × 0.4 EDSA II forced President Estrada from office amid an impeachment crisis, producing a disputed transfer to Arroyo and weeks of political instability.
2008 · S02 × 0.5 The global financial crisis slowed exports and remittances, though Philippine banks had limited exposure to toxic assets.
2009 · S07 × 0.5 Tropical Storm Ondoy and Typhoon Pepeng caused severe flooding in Metro Manila and Luzon, damaging the economic core.
2013 · S07 × 0.9 Super Typhoon Haiyan devastated the central Philippines, killing more than 6,000 people and destroying much of Tacloban and surrounding areas.
2020 · S10 × 1 COVID-19 produced one of the world's longest lockdowns, a deep recession, severe strain on the health system and sharp fiscal deterioration.

The pathway: what it prioritised, period by period

1997–2000 · build · 2% each Ramos and then Estrada prioritised macroeconomic stabilisation, banking reforms and build-operate-transfer infrastructure after the Asian financial crisis. (Monetary & Currency Capability, Financial Regulation & Integrity, Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance, Trade Policy & Market Access, Transport Infrastructure)
2001–2005 · build · 2% each Arroyo enacted the Expanded VAT, pursued counter-insurgency and sought to attract investment into ICT-enabled services after EDSA II. (Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance, Internal Security & Order, Transport Infrastructure, Communications & Digital Infrastructure, Investment Attraction & Projection)
2006–2010 · partner · 2% each Arroyo's administration expanded the business process outsourcing ecosystem, telecoms infrastructure and trade logistics, partly through private investment and donor partnerships. (Communications & Digital Infrastructure, Digital & AI Competence, Trade Facilitation & Logistics, Investment Attraction & Projection, Energy Infrastructure)
2010–2016 · build · 2% each Aquino III pursued anti-corruption reforms, public-private partnership infrastructure, the K-12 education reform and conditional cash transfers focused on health and education. (Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption, Transparency, Oversight & Accountability, Transport Infrastructure, Foundational Education, Population Health)
2016–2022 · build · 5% each Duterte made Build Build Build a flagship infrastructure programme while pursuing a violent anti-drug and internal security campaign. (Transport Infrastructure, Energy Infrastructure, Internal Security & Order)
2020–2023 · buy · 2% each The COVID-19 response required emergency vaccine procurement, social protection transfers, remote schooling and crisis management in one of the world's longest lockdowns. (Health System Capability, Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance, Social Infrastructure, Digital & AI Competence, National Resilience & Crisis Management)
2022–2026 · partner · 2% each Marcos Jr. sought foreign partnerships for digitalisation, food security, renewable energy and investment liberalisation while rebuilding fiscal space after the pandemic. (Communications & Digital Infrastructure, Agriculture & Food Infrastructure, Energy Infrastructure, Investment Attraction & Projection, Trade Policy & Market Access)

Reconstruction notes (deepseek-v4-pro): The 1996 scores are reconstructed from limited comparative data for a lower-middle-income state, so several critical technology, defence and research estimates are especially uncertain. Event-to-library mapping compresses complex crises such as EDSA II and repeated typhoons into the nearest available shock type. Policy chunk sizes are qualitative readings of budget and programme emphasis rather than precise national accounts.

Report

Written from the simulation record by the loop's narrator. Every figure names the query it came from, in square brackets.

Batch cycle-002. Model 0.1.0, graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.0. 30 simulations, seeds 1 to 30; probes on 10. Every figure is a distribution over simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values; it shows what the model implies under these settings, not what will happen. Other nations are frozen at their 2026 ratings. No reconstructed historical data is used in this experiment.

Headline

Philippines played 30 rounds from 1996 under the scripted method, with scripted events, 30 times. Its capability index moved from 9.40 to a median of 7.76 (−1.64), with 90 per cent of simulations between 7.74 and 7.77 [experiment_objectives].

Starting position

In 1996 the nation ranks 53 on the index against the frozen field, holds 0 of nine domains at Tier 1 and has a tier rank of 51. Its base income is 235 credits a year, calibrated so that its 2026 position is affordable with headroom for investment.

What was decided

A simulation spent a median of 810 credits on moves. The five groups that took most were Transport Infrastructure (build, 134 credits, 16.5 per cent); Internal Security & Order (build, 86 credits, 10.6 per cent); Energy Infrastructure (build, 64 credits, 7.9 per cent); Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance (build, 55 credits, 6.8 per cent); Communications & Digital Infrastructure (partner, 40 credits, 4.9 per cent) [experiment_decisions_by_group]. By mode: build 72 per cent, partner 25 per cent, buy 3 per cent [experiment_decisions_by_group]. Concentration of spending (HHI) had a median of 0.084, and the most repeated action appeared in 77 per cent of rounds.

The leading domain by period: rounds 1 to 5, Financial Strength; rounds 6 to 10, Strategic Infrastructure; rounds 11 to 15, Strategic Infrastructure; rounds 16 to 20, Governance & Integrity; rounds 21 to 25, Strategic Infrastructure; rounds 26 to 30, Strategic Infrastructure [experiment_spend_by_period].

What the world did

A median simulation saw 7 shocks and 0 upside events. The most damaging per firing were S10 (30 firings in 30 simulations, −36.8 points each); S07 (60 firings in 30 simulations, −33.7 points each); S05 (30 firings in 30 simulations, −10.3 points each) [experiment_shocks].

The groups that lost most to shocks, per simulation: Trade Facilitation & Logistics −4.98; Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance −4.51; Financial System Depth & Access −3.90; Industrial & Sectoral Base −3.36 [experiment_shock_damage_by_group].

The edges that carried most change through the graph, per simulation: Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance to Social Infrastructure (−0.49 points); Transport Infrastructure to Trade Facilitation & Logistics (+0.34 points); Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance to Force Generation & Mobilisation (−0.41 points) [experiment_propagation_by_edge].

Where it ended

At 2026 the median rank is 70 (5th to 95th percentile 69 to 70), the median count of Tier 1 domains 0 (0 to 0) and the median tier rank 64; the resilient score, the mean score sum over simulations, is 553 [experiment_objectives].

Why

Without shocks the index ends +2.436 higher on average, so the shocks cost about 2.436 index points [experiment_probe_attribution].

Holding instead of following this method changes the index by −0.782: that is the method's worth against doing nothing [experiment_probe_attribution].

Removing any single one of the five largest actions changes the index by between −0.006 and −0.005, for example 2016 build Transport Infrastructure (9 credits) [experiment_probe_attribution]. The largest actions by credits come late, when income is highest, and are rarely the most valuable.

Removing the largest shock of a simulation raises the index by +0.780 on average [experiment_probe_attribution].

The replay probe reproduces the simulations exactly (index change 0.000000), so the attributions are clean [experiment_probe_attribution].

Surprises

saturation_low (warn): 100% of simulations end with a group at 0 that did not start there (median 1 groups).

same_action (warn): the most repeated move (group and mode) appears in a median 77% of rounds.

retired_words (warn): e4-phl/report.md: 'simulations' 1 time(s), first near line 38; use 'simulations'.

The simulation furthest from the median (seed 15) ends −0.02 from it, with 7 shocks and 0 upside events [experiment_outlier_simulations].

Comparison

This is the baseline (hold) experiment, or there is none for this nation in the batch.

Against history: from a reconstructed index of 9.40 the model ends at 7.76, where the 2026 ratings put it at 8.83. Group scores miss by 1.78 points on average, against 1.02 for assuming nothing changed (skill −0.75); the change in each domain has the right sign in 56 per cent of domains. Furthest below history: production and innovation (−2.90); furthest above: critical technology (+0.32) [experiment_against_history]. The starting position is reconstructed, so part of the error is the reconstruction's.

What each decision and shock was worth

Counterfactual probes on the first 10 seeds: the same simulations with one thing changed, paired seed by seed. A removed decision or shock is taken out and the other decisions replayed unchanged, so the difference is that item's worth.

Probe	Index	Score sum	For example
Hold instead of the method	−0.782	−57.3
No shocks	+2.436	+171.3
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0
Without the 1st largest decision	−0.005	−0.4	2016 build Transport Infrastructure (9 credits)
Without the 2nd largest decision	−0.006	−0.5	2016 build Energy Infrastructure (9 credits)
Without the 3rd largest decision	−0.006	−0.4	2016 build Internal Security & Order (9 credits)
Without the 4th largest decision	−0.005	−0.4	2017 build Transport Infrastructure (9 credits)
Without the 5th largest decision	−0.006	−0.5	2017 build Energy Infrastructure (9 credits)
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.780	+55.2	2013 S07 (-44.0 points)
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.588	+41.4	2020 S10 (-36.8 points)
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.452	+32.0	2009 S07 (-23.5 points)

Simulations

Three simulations told round by round, each on its own page: the one nearest the median index at the horizon, and those nearest the 10th and the 90th percentile. Every one of the 30 is listed with its outcome on the simulations page.

All 30 simulations

Events

How often each shock and upside event began across the simulations. Shocks come from the ten downside scenarios and upside events from the ten upside ones, at their yearly likelihood.

Event	Kind	Simulations	Mean round	Points
Global funding seizure S02	Shock	100 per cent	6.5	−8.9
Legitimacy rupture S05	Shock	100 per cent	5.0	−10.3
Breadbasket failure S06	Shock	100 per cent	2.0	−9.5
Core disaster S07	Shock	100 per cent	15.0	−33.7
Severe pandemic S10	Shock	100 per cent	24.0	−36.8

Groups across simulations

Every capability group: its position, and its median and spread at the horizon across the simulations, with what the method spent on it.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	1996	2026	Change	Levels invested	Credits
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	9.02	11.67 11.57 to 11.75	+2.65	5.53	134
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	9.58	12.10 12.06 to 12.14	+2.52	4.08	86
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	7.80	9.56 9.52 to 9.60	+1.76	5.06	104
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.72	12.37 12.36 to 12.39	+1.65	3.33	62
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	10.62	12.08 12.04 to 12.12	+1.46	4.70	62
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	11.62	12.40 12.37 to 12.45	+0.78	2.17	37
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	11.73	11.99 11.94 to 12.05	+0.26	3.03	35
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	9.40	9.62 9.58 to 9.65	+0.22	1.59	29
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	10.84	10.89 10.87 to 10.92	+0.05	1.45	29
Foundational Education	Human Capital	10.61	10.38 10.28 to 10.45	−0.23	1.86	29
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	0.36	0.00 0.00 to 0.00	−0.36	0.00	0
Population Health	Human Capital	9.53	8.87 8.77 to 8.91	−0.66	1.62	29
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	6.83	5.88 5.85 to 5.89	−0.95	0.00	0
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	4.91	3.83 3.80 to 3.86	−1.08	0.00	0
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	6.97	5.89 5.87 to 5.92	−1.08	0.00	0
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	7.34	6.25 6.19 to 6.28	−1.09	0.00	0
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	5.08	3.99 3.96 to 4.02	−1.09	0.00	0
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	2.95	1.85 1.82 to 1.88	−1.10	0.00	0
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	4.34	3.21 3.18 to 3.27	−1.13	0.00	0
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	4.69	3.54 3.49 to 3.58	−1.15	0.00	0
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	10.12	8.84 8.80 to 8.88	−1.28	0.00	0
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	8.72	7.43 7.39 to 7.47	−1.29	0.00	0
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	10.24	8.95 8.93 to 8.96	−1.29	0.00	0
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	7.69	6.37 6.31 to 6.43	−1.32	0.00	0
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	10.99	9.62 9.61 to 9.64	−1.37	0.00	0
Maritime Power	National Security	6.75	5.31 5.27 to 5.35	−1.44	0.00	0
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	5.70	4.22 4.14 to 4.26	−1.48	0.00	0
Advanced Education	Human Capital	10.80	9.32 9.29 to 9.35	−1.48	0.00	0
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	9.14	7.66 7.63 to 7.69	−1.48	0.00	0
Land Power	National Security	9.33	7.81 7.72 to 7.86	−1.52	0.00	0
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	9.63	8.10 8.07 to 8.14	−1.53	0.00	0
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	9.65	8.11 8.00 to 8.21	−1.54	0.81	17
Air Power	National Security	6.88	5.33 5.29 to 5.40	−1.55	0.00	0
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	9.51	7.96 7.93 to 8.01	−1.55	0.00	0
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	13.06	11.45 11.43 to 11.46	−1.61	0.00	0
Space Operations	National Security	5.18	3.52 3.45 to 3.58	−1.66	0.00	0
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	10.11	8.41 8.27 to 8.51	−1.70	0.00	0
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	8.11	6.41 6.38 to 6.45	−1.70	0.00	0
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	7.32	5.61 5.55 to 5.66	−1.71	0.00	0
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	5.31	3.56 3.54 to 3.58	−1.75	0.00	0
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	7.28	5.52 5.51 to 5.53	−1.76	0.00	0
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	9.93	8.15 8.10 to 8.23	−1.78	0.77	14
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	12.12	10.32 10.27 to 10.38	−1.80	0.00	0
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	10.86	9.04 8.95 to 9.09	−1.82	0.00	0
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	11.22	9.33 9.31 to 9.38	−1.89	0.00	0
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	10.56	8.65 8.60 to 8.70	−1.91	0.00	0
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	11.71	9.75 9.73 to 9.80	−1.96	0.84	18
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	6.61	4.62 4.55 to 4.67	−1.99	0.00	0
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	13.33	11.29 11.20 to 11.38	−2.04	0.00	0
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	5.46	3.40 3.34 to 3.44	−2.06	0.00	0
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.63	10.49 10.39 to 10.56	−2.14	0.00	0
Health System Capability	Human Capital	10.07	7.92 7.87 to 8.00	−2.15	0.90	14
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	9.50	7.35 7.32 to 7.37	−2.15	0.00	0
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	12.42	10.03 10.01 to 10.05	−2.39	0.00	0
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	12.79	10.39 10.29 to 10.47	−2.40	0.79	18
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	9.65	7.16 7.08 to 7.24	−2.49	2.22	23
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	12.25	9.73 9.70 to 9.76	−2.52	0.00	0
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	11.34	8.75 8.71 to 8.78	−2.59	0.00	0
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	7.58	4.99 4.95 to 5.04	−2.59	0.00	0
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	9.20	6.60 6.55 to 6.68	−2.60	0.00	0
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	9.52	6.88 6.79 to 6.98	−2.64	0.00	0
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	10.00	7.21 7.13 to 7.29	−2.79	0.00	0
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	11.98	9.14 9.08 to 9.20	−2.84	0.00	0
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	10.69	7.84 7.75 to 7.96	−2.85	2.21	55
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	10.72	7.83 7.79 to 7.88	−2.89	0.00	0
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	9.36	6.46 6.38 to 6.51	−2.90	0.00	0
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	8.98	5.94 5.84 to 6.01	−3.04	0.00	0
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.41	7.35 7.28 to 7.48	−3.06	0.67	14
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	9.07	5.82 5.77 to 5.91	−3.25	0.00	0
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	8.99	5.71 5.63 to 5.78	−3.28	0.00	0
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	9.94	6.48 6.44 to 6.54	−3.46	0.00	0
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	8.58	5.11 5.05 to 5.17	−3.47	0.00	0
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	11.36	7.36 7.33 to 7.38	−4.00	0.00	0

Checks

The automated checks run on this experiment before anything was written about it. A warning is a candidate finding for the improvement loop.

passcredits_conservedlargest gap between credits in and credits accounted for: 3.4e-13
passscores_in_boundsscores range 0.000 to 13.332
passno_nans0 missing values in the trajectory and objectives
passprobe_replay_reproducesthe recorded moves played back reproduce the simulation to within 0.0e+00 points (10 simulations)
passledger_balancesthe edge ledger sums to the propagated change to within 9.7e-07 points
passmove_without_shocklargest one-year move in a group with no shock landing: 0.49 points; 0% of simulations have one above 3
passtier_jumplargest gain in one domain within five years: 2 tiers (0 simulations above 2)
passall_tier1_from_outside_top10starting rank 53; 0 simulations reach Tier 1 in all nine domains
passsaturation_high0% of simulations end with a group at 20 that did not start there (median 0 groups)
warnsaturation_low100% of simulations end with a group at 0 that did not start there (median 1 groups)
passspend_concentrationmedian concentration of spending across groups (HHI) 0.084; most funded group hard.strategic_infrastructure.transport_infrastructure
warnsame_actionthe most repeated move (group and mode) appears in a median 77% of rounds

Settings and versions

Experiment cycle-002.e4-phl. Every simulation records the model, graph and parameter versions, the scenario, the method and its seed, so it can be reproduced exactly.

Nation: Philippines (PHL)
Position: A reconstructed 1996 position, aligned to the Index's scale
Method: Scripted. Actions fixed in advance by the experiment: for a backcast, the nation's historical pathway.
Scenario: Scripted events: Global funding seizure in year 1, Breadbasket failure in year 2, Legitimacy rupture in year 5, Global funding seizure in year 12, Core disaster in year 13, Core disaster in year 17, Severe pandemic in year 24
Objective: Capability index, the primary objective the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it
Horizon: 30 rounds, 1996 to 2026
Simulations: 30 seeds, 1 to 30. Every method in the batch faces the same draws for the same seed.
Graph elasticities: Drawn for each simulation, uniformly within each edge’s bracket
Income: Base credits 234.6 a round, moving with the economic groups
Versions: Model 0.1.0, Capability Dependency Graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.0
Batch: Backcast 1996-2026 (cycle-002), cycle 2 of the improvement loop
Runtime: 4.3 seconds in all; 1035 microseconds a round

Not a forecast: Every figure is a distribution over the simulations of a structural model, reported to compare methods and test the model. None is a prediction of what a nation will do or become.
Structural parameters: Costs, decay, vulnerability and credits are structural seed values with low or medium confidence, set by domain with single-group exceptions. Five groups have no defensible value in a single-nation model and are flagged in the parameter tables.
Other nations are frozen: One nation is simulated at a time. Every other nation stays at its 2026 rating, so rank and tiers are measured against a still field; where the simulated nation rises past others their own tiers are not re-sorted.
Starting depth and mode are defaults: The position is the National Capability Index ratings. How institutionalised each capability is, and how much was built, bought or partnered, have no data behind them yet and start from structural defaults.
Credits are calibrated, not measured: Each nation’s income is set so that its position is affordable with headroom that rises with its fiscal capacity. It is not yet fiscal capacity as a share of GDP.