A poor simulation (10th percentile) · cycle-002.e4-phl

Simulation 25

Philippines, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 25: a poor simulation (10th percentile) of the experiment's 30. Capability index 9.40 at the 1996 position, 7.75 in 2026; 171 actions over 30 rounds and 7 shocks.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 25

The experiment · The other representative simulations: 10 (median simulation), 9 (a good simulation (90th percentile))

Outcome

From the 1996 position to 2026.

Capability index: 7.75 (−1.65); From 9.40
Rank by index: 70; From 53
Domains at Tier 1: 0; From 0
Events: 7 shocks; 0 upside events

Trajectory by domain

The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.

ShockUpside event

Capability index by round

Pathway, round by round

Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.

Round	Decision	Events	Index
1997	Build Monetary & Currency Capability 5 Build Financial Regulation & Integrity 5 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 5 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 5 Build Transport Infrastructure 5	Global funding seizure	9.26 −0.141
1998	Build Monetary & Currency Capability 5 Build Financial Regulation & Integrity 5 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 5 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 5 Build Transport Infrastructure 5	Breadbasket failure	9.13 −0.126
1999	Build Monetary & Currency Capability 5 Build Financial Regulation & Integrity 5 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 5 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 5 Build Transport Infrastructure 5		9.14 +0.011
2000	Build Monetary & Currency Capability 4 Build Financial Regulation & Integrity 4 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 4 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 4 Build Transport Infrastructure 4		9.15 +0.011
2001	Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 5 Build Internal Security & Order 5 Build Transport Infrastructure 5 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 5 Build Investment Attraction & Projection 5	Legitimacy rupture	9.02 −0.134
2002	Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 5 Build Internal Security & Order 5 Build Transport Infrastructure 5 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 5 Build Investment Attraction & Projection 5		9.03 +0.009
2003	Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 4 Build Internal Security & Order 4 Build Transport Infrastructure 4 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 4 Build Investment Attraction & Projection 4		9.04 +0.008
2004	Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 5 Build Internal Security & Order 5 Build Transport Infrastructure 5 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 5 Build Investment Attraction & Projection 5		9.05 +0.012
2005	Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 5 Build Internal Security & Order 5 Build Transport Infrastructure 5 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 5 Build Investment Attraction & Projection 5		9.06 +0.014
2006	Partner Communications & Digital Infrastructure 5 Partner Digital & AI Competence 5 Partner Trade Facilitation & Logistics 5 Partner Investment Attraction & Projection 5 Partner Energy Infrastructure 5		9.08 +0.019
2007	Partner Communications & Digital Infrastructure 5 Partner Digital & AI Competence 5 Partner Trade Facilitation & Logistics 5 Partner Investment Attraction & Projection 5 Partner Energy Infrastructure 5		9.11 +0.027
2008	Partner Communications & Digital Infrastructure 5 Partner Digital & AI Competence 5 Partner Trade Facilitation & Logistics 5 Partner Investment Attraction & Projection 5 Partner Energy Infrastructure 5	Global funding seizure	9.01 −0.094
2009	Partner Communications & Digital Infrastructure 5 Partner Digital & AI Competence 5 Partner Trade Facilitation & Logistics 5 Partner Investment Attraction & Projection 5 Partner Energy Infrastructure 5	Core disaster	8.71 −0.308
2010	Partner Communications & Digital Infrastructure 5 Partner Digital & AI Competence 5 Partner Trade Facilitation & Logistics 5 Partner Investment Attraction & Projection 5 Partner Energy Infrastructure 5 Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 5 Build Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 5 Build Transport Infrastructure 5 Build Foundational Education 5 Build Population Health 5		8.72 +0.019
2011	Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 4 Build Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 4 Build Transport Infrastructure 4 Build Foundational Education 4 Build Population Health 4		8.73 +0.009
2012	Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 4 Build Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 4 Build Transport Infrastructure 4 Build Foundational Education 4 Build Population Health 4		8.74 +0.005
2013	Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 4 Build Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 4 Build Transport Infrastructure 4 Build Foundational Education 4 Build Population Health 4	Core disaster	8.12 −0.616
2014	Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 4 Build Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 4 Build Transport Infrastructure 4 Build Foundational Education 4 Build Population Health 4		8.12 −0.003
2015	Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 4 Build Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 4 Build Transport Infrastructure 4 Build Foundational Education 4 Build Population Health 4		8.11 −0.008
2016	Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 4 Build Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 4 Build Transport Infrastructure 4 Build Foundational Education 4 Build Population Health 4 Build Transport Infrastructure 9 Build Energy Infrastructure 9 Build Internal Security & Order 9		8.11 −0.001
2017	Build Transport Infrastructure 9 Build Energy Infrastructure 9 Build Internal Security & Order 9		8.11 +0.001
2018	Build Transport Infrastructure 9 Build Energy Infrastructure 9 Build Internal Security & Order 9		8.12 +0.002
2019	Build Transport Infrastructure 9 Build Energy Infrastructure 9 Build Internal Security & Order 9		8.13 +0.012
2020	Build Transport Infrastructure 9 Build Energy Infrastructure 9 Build Internal Security & Order 9 Buy Health System Capability 4 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 4 Build Social Infrastructure 4 Buy Digital & AI Competence 4 Build National Resilience & Crisis Management 4	Severe pandemic	7.63 −0.501
2021	Build Transport Infrastructure 9 Build Energy Infrastructure 9 Build Internal Security & Order 9 Buy Health System Capability 4 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 4 Build Social Infrastructure 4 Buy Digital & AI Competence 4 Build National Resilience & Crisis Management 4		7.64 +0.013
2022	Build Transport Infrastructure 8 Build Energy Infrastructure 8 Build Internal Security & Order 8 Buy Health System Capability 3 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 3 Build Social Infrastructure 3 Buy Digital & AI Competence 3 Build National Resilience & Crisis Management 3 Partner Communications & Digital Infrastructure 3 Partner Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 3 Partner Energy Infrastructure 3 Partner Investment Attraction & Projection 3 Partner Trade Policy & Market Access 3		7.66 +0.019
2023	Buy Health System Capability 3 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 3 Build Social Infrastructure 3 Buy Digital & AI Competence 3 Build National Resilience & Crisis Management 3 Partner Communications & Digital Infrastructure 3 Partner Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 3 Partner Energy Infrastructure 3 Partner Investment Attraction & Projection 3 Partner Trade Policy & Market Access 3		7.68 +0.027
2024	Partner Communications & Digital Infrastructure 3 Partner Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 3 Partner Energy Infrastructure 3 Partner Investment Attraction & Projection 3 Partner Trade Policy & Market Access 3		7.71 +0.023
2025	Partner Communications & Digital Infrastructure 3 Partner Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 3 Partner Energy Infrastructure 3 Partner Investment Attraction & Projection 3 Partner Trade Policy & Market Access 3		7.73 +0.019
2026	Partner Communications & Digital Infrastructure 3 Partner Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 3 Partner Energy Infrastructure 3 Partner Investment Attraction & Projection 3 Partner Trade Policy & Market Access 3		7.75 +0.020

Credits

What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.

Tiers by round

Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.

Domain	1996					2001					2006					2011					2016					2021					2026
Critical Technology	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
Strategic Infrastructure	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	7	6	6	6	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	6	6
National Security	5	5	5	5	5	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
Human Capital	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8
Information & Influence	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6
Governance & Integrity	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	12	12	12	12	12	12
Financial Strength	14	14	14	14	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	14	15	15	15	15	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16
Production & Innovation	12	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	15	15	15	15	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	17	17	17	17	17	17	17
Trade & Investment	9	9	9	9	9	10	10	10	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9

Probes

What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.

Probe	Index	Score sum
Hold instead of the method	−0.782	−57.3
No shocks	+2.436	+171.3
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0
Without the 1st largest decision	−0.005	−0.4
Without the 2nd largest decision	−0.006	−0.5
Without the 3rd largest decision	−0.006	−0.4
Without the 4th largest decision	−0.005	−0.4
Without the 5th largest decision	−0.006	−0.5
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.780	+55.2
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.588	+41.4
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.452	+32.0

Every group over the simulation

Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	1996	2026	Change	Invested	Events	Graph
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	9.02	11.62	+2.60	+5.54	−2.56	−0.36
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	9.58	12.14	+2.56	+4.07	−1.36	−0.15
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	7.80	9.54	+1.74	+5.06	−3.02	−0.30
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.72	12.37	+1.65	+3.33	−1.64	−0.03
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	10.62	12.05	+1.43	+4.71	−3.06	−0.22
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	11.62	12.40	+0.78	+2.17	−1.40	+0.01
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	9.40	9.63	+0.23	+1.59	−1.24	−0.11
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	11.73	11.96	+0.23	+3.03	−2.51	−0.29
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	10.84	10.88	+0.04	+1.45	−1.31	−0.10
Foundational Education	Human Capital	10.61	10.32	−0.29	+1.86	−1.69	−0.46
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	0.36	0.00	−0.36	0.00	−1.35	−0.04
Population Health	Human Capital	9.53	8.89	−0.64	+1.62	−1.82	−0.43
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	6.83	5.85	−0.98	0.00	−0.93	−0.05
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	2.95	1.88	−1.07	0.00	−0.99	−0.07
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	7.34	6.26	−1.08	0.00	−0.93	−0.16
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	5.08	4.00	−1.08	0.00	−0.96	−0.12
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	6.97	5.87	−1.10	0.00	−0.93	−0.17
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	4.91	3.81	−1.10	0.00	−0.96	−0.14
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	4.69	3.58	−1.11	0.00	−0.96	−0.14
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	4.34	3.18	−1.16	0.00	−0.97	−0.19
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	10.12	8.87	−1.25	0.00	−1.16	−0.08
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	10.24	8.96	−1.28	0.00	−1.26	−0.03
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	8.72	7.42	−1.30	0.00	−1.19	−0.10
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	7.69	6.36	−1.33	0.00	−1.21	−0.11
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	10.99	9.62	−1.37	0.00	−1.34	−0.04
Maritime Power	National Security	6.75	5.32	−1.43	0.00	−1.23	−0.21
Advanced Education	Human Capital	10.80	9.35	−1.45	0.00	−1.39	−0.06
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	5.70	4.23	−1.47	0.00	−1.25	−0.22
Air Power	National Security	6.88	5.40	−1.48	0.00	−1.22	−0.26
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	9.65	8.15	−1.50	+0.80	−1.85	−0.45
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	9.63	8.13	−1.50	0.00	−1.42	−0.07
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	9.14	7.63	−1.51	0.00	−1.39	−0.12
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	9.51	7.99	−1.52	0.00	−1.42	−0.10
Land Power	National Security	9.33	7.78	−1.55	0.00	−1.18	−0.37
Space Operations	National Security	5.18	3.58	−1.60	0.00	−1.26	−0.34
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	13.06	11.46	−1.60	0.00	−1.58	−0.02
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	8.11	6.42	−1.69	0.00	−1.46	−0.24
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	7.32	5.63	−1.69	0.00	−1.50	−0.19
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	12.12	10.38	−1.74	0.00	−1.60	−0.14
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	5.31	3.57	−1.74	0.00	−1.64	−0.10
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	7.28	5.51	−1.77	0.00	−1.77	+0.01
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	9.93	8.14	−1.79	+0.77	−2.17	−0.39
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	10.86	9.06	−1.80	0.00	−1.49	−0.32
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	10.11	8.26	−1.85	0.00	−1.36	−0.49
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	11.22	9.35	−1.87	0.00	−1.62	−0.25
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	10.56	8.62	−1.94	0.00	−1.70	−0.25
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	11.71	9.70	−2.01	+0.84	−2.63	−0.22
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	6.61	4.59	−2.02	0.00	−1.71	−0.31
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	5.46	3.34	−2.12	0.00	−1.80	−0.32
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	9.50	7.38	−2.12	0.00	−2.25	+0.13
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	13.33	11.13	−2.20	0.00	−1.71	−0.49
Health System Capability	Human Capital	10.07	7.80	−2.27	+0.91	−2.67	−0.50
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.63	10.33	−2.30	0.00	−1.81	−0.48
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	12.42	10.04	−2.38	0.00	−2.32	−0.06
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	12.25	9.78	−2.47	0.00	−2.61	+0.14
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	12.79	10.29	−2.50	+0.79	−2.91	−0.38
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	9.65	7.09	−2.56	+2.23	−4.98	+0.19
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	9.20	6.63	−2.57	0.00	−2.26	−0.30
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	11.34	8.75	−2.59	0.00	−2.46	−0.13
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	7.58	4.94	−2.64	0.00	−2.30	−0.34
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	9.52	6.86	−2.66	0.00	−2.25	−0.41
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	10.00	7.21	−2.79	0.00	−2.45	−0.34
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	11.98	9.17	−2.81	0.00	−2.72	−0.09
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	10.69	7.86	−2.83	+2.21	−4.51	−0.53
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	10.72	7.87	−2.85	0.00	−2.66	−0.19
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	9.36	6.41	−2.95	0.00	−2.60	−0.35
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	8.98	5.96	−3.02	0.00	−2.72	−0.31
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.41	7.30	−3.11	+0.67	−3.11	−0.67
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	9.07	5.78	−3.29	0.00	−2.71	−0.57
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	8.99	5.67	−3.32	0.00	−2.94	−0.37
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	9.94	6.53	−3.41	0.00	−3.36	−0.06
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	8.58	5.05	−3.53	0.00	−3.18	−0.34
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	11.36	7.36	−4.00	0.00	−3.90	−0.11

Seed 25 of experiment cycle-002.e4-phl. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.