A poor simulation (10th percentile) · cycle-002.e4-pol

Simulation 18

Poland, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 18: a poor simulation (10th percentile) of the experiment's 30. Capability index 9.92 at the 1996 position, 9.54 in 2026; 150 actions over 30 rounds and 5 shocks.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 18

The experiment · The other representative simulations: 14 (median simulation), 9 (a good simulation (90th percentile))

Outcome

From the 1996 position to 2026.

Capability index: 9.54 (−0.38); From 9.92
Rank by index: 50; From 47
Domains at Tier 1: 0; From 0
Events: 5 shocks; 1 upside event

Trajectory by domain

The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.

ShockUpside event

Capability index by round

Pathway, round by round

Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.

Round	Decision	Events	Index
1997	Partner Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 5 Partner Trade Policy & Market Access 5 Partner Force Generation & Mobilisation 5 Partner Financial Regulation & Integrity 5 Partner Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 5	Core disaster	9.75 −0.163
1998	Partner Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 5 Partner Trade Policy & Market Access 5 Partner Force Generation & Mobilisation 5 Partner Financial Regulation & Integrity 5 Partner Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 5		9.77 +0.019
1999	Build Transport Infrastructure 5 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 5 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 5 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 5 Build Structural Transformation & Complexity 5		9.79 +0.014
2000	Build Transport Infrastructure 5 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 5 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 5 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 5 Build Structural Transformation & Complexity 5		9.80 +0.011
2001	Build Transport Infrastructure 5 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 5 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 5 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 5 Build Structural Transformation & Complexity 5		9.81 +0.011
2002	Build Transport Infrastructure 5 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 5 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 5 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 5 Build Structural Transformation & Complexity 5		9.82 +0.013
2003	Build Transport Infrastructure 5 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 5 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 5 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 5 Build Structural Transformation & Complexity 5		9.84 +0.016
2004	Build Transport Infrastructure 5 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 5 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 5 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 5 Build Structural Transformation & Complexity 5	Market access opening	9.95 +0.112
2005	Build Transport Infrastructure 13 Build Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 13 Build Financial System Depth & Access 13 Build Advanced Education 13 Build Social Infrastructure 13		10.07 +0.121
2006	Build Transport Infrastructure 14 Build Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 14 Build Financial System Depth & Access 14 Build Advanced Education 14 Build Social Infrastructure 14		10.20 +0.132
2007	Build Transport Infrastructure 14 Build Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 14 Build Financial System Depth & Access 14 Build Advanced Education 14 Build Social Infrastructure 14		10.25 +0.048
2008	Build Transport Infrastructure 14 Build Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 14 Build Financial System Depth & Access 14 Build Advanced Education 14 Build Social Infrastructure 14	Global funding seizure	10.13 −0.124
2009	Build Financial Stability & Crisis Management 6 Build Energy Infrastructure 6 Build Transport Infrastructure 6 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 6 Build Trade Facilitation & Logistics 6		10.17 +0.044
2010	Build Financial Stability & Crisis Management 5 Build Energy Infrastructure 5 Build Transport Infrastructure 5 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 5 Build Trade Facilitation & Logistics 5		10.21 +0.036
2011	Build Financial Stability & Crisis Management 5 Build Energy Infrastructure 5 Build Transport Infrastructure 5 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 5 Build Trade Facilitation & Logistics 5		10.24 +0.029
2012	Build Financial Stability & Crisis Management 5 Build Energy Infrastructure 5 Build Transport Infrastructure 5 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 5 Build Trade Facilitation & Logistics 5		10.26 +0.025
2013	Build Financial Stability & Crisis Management 5 Build Energy Infrastructure 5 Build Transport Infrastructure 5 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 5 Build Trade Facilitation & Logistics 5		10.28 +0.023
2014	Build Financial Stability & Crisis Management 5 Build Energy Infrastructure 5 Build Transport Infrastructure 5 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 5 Build Trade Facilitation & Logistics 5		10.31 +0.024
2015	Build Land Power 14 Build Air Power 14 Build Energy Infrastructure 14 Build Population Health 14 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 14		10.33 +0.024
2016	Build Land Power 14 Build Air Power 14 Build Energy Infrastructure 14 Build Population Health 14 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 14		10.36 +0.025
2017	Build Land Power 14 Build Air Power 14 Build Energy Infrastructure 14 Build Population Health 14 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 14		10.38 +0.028
2018	Build Land Power 14 Build Air Power 14 Build Energy Infrastructure 14 Build Population Health 14 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 14		10.42 +0.033
2019	Build Land Power 14 Build Air Power 14 Build Energy Infrastructure 14 Build Population Health 14 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 14		10.45 +0.035
2020	Build National Resilience & Crisis Management 6 Build Health System Capability 6 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 6 Build Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 6 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 6	Severe pandemic	9.97 −0.477
2021	Build National Resilience & Crisis Management 6 Build Health System Capability 6 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 6 Build Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 6 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 6	Hybrid coercion	9.83 −0.143
2022	Buy Force Generation & Mobilisation 13 Buy Air Power 13 Buy Energy Infrastructure 13 Buy Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 13 Build National Resilience & Crisis Management 13	Regional war spillover	9.44 −0.398
2023	Buy Force Generation & Mobilisation 13 Buy Air Power 13 Buy Energy Infrastructure 13 Buy Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 13 Build National Resilience & Crisis Management 13		9.47 +0.033
2024	Buy Force Generation & Mobilisation 12 Buy Air Power 12 Buy Energy Infrastructure 12 Buy Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 12 Build National Resilience & Crisis Management 12		9.49 +0.021
2025	Buy Force Generation & Mobilisation 12 Buy Air Power 12 Buy Energy Infrastructure 12 Buy Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 12 Build National Resilience & Crisis Management 12		9.51 +0.022
2026	Buy Force Generation & Mobilisation 12 Buy Air Power 12 Buy Energy Infrastructure 12 Buy Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 12 Build National Resilience & Crisis Management 12		9.54 +0.026

Credits

What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.

Tiers by round

Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.

Domain	1996					2001					2006					2011					2016					2021					2026
Critical Technology	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	8	8	8	7	7	7	6
Strategic Infrastructure	5	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	5	5	5	5	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4
National Security	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	5	5	5
Human Capital	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5
Information & Influence	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
Governance & Integrity	12	12	12	11	11	11	11	11	10	10	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	10	10	11	11	11	10	10
Financial Strength	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	15	15	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	15	15	16	16	16	16	16
Production & Innovation	8	10	10	10	10	10	9	9	8	7	7	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6
Trade & Investment	9	9	9	9	9	9	8	8	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	7	8	9	9	9	9	9

Probes

What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.

Probe	Index	Score sum
Hold instead of the method	−1.028	−78.9
No shocks	+1.694	+120.8
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0
Without the 1st largest decision	−0.007	−0.6
Without the 2nd largest decision	−0.011	−0.7
Without the 3rd largest decision	−0.023	−1.4
Without the 4th largest decision	−0.014	−1.1
Without the 5th largest decision	−0.007	−0.7
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.597	+42.2
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.479	+34.8
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.188	+14.0

Every group over the simulation

Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	1996	2026	Change	Invested	Events	Graph
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	6.27	12.71	+6.44	+7.42	−1.04	+0.06
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	9.81	14.72	+4.91	+6.18	−1.24	−0.02
Air Power	National Security	9.09	13.02	+3.93	+5.07	−1.05	−0.09
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.41	15.13	+3.72	+4.67	−0.95	0.00
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.60	13.90	+3.30	+4.41	−0.98	−0.13
Advanced Education	Human Capital	12.55	15.35	+2.80	+3.13	−0.31	−0.02
Population Health	Human Capital	10.23	12.97	+2.74	+3.50	−0.67	−0.08
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	11.73	13.50	+1.77	+2.94	−1.07	−0.10
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	11.35	13.05	+1.70	+2.63	−1.07	+0.14
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	12.85	14.22	+1.37	+2.82	−1.13	−0.32
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	11.98	13.27	+1.29	+2.21	−0.97	+0.04
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	9.83	10.94	+1.11	+2.77	−1.63	−0.03
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	11.00	12.05	+1.05	+2.38	−1.34	+0.01
Land Power	National Security	11.47	12.39	+0.92	+2.03	−1.04	−0.07
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.16	11.90	+0.74	+2.14	−1.23	−0.17
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	11.06	11.41	+0.35	+1.61	−1.11	−0.14
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	10.63	10.93	+0.30	+0.53	−0.24	+0.02
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	10.77	10.94	+0.17	+2.08	−2.41	+0.50
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.57	11.73	+0.16	+1.14	−0.84	−0.14
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	10.27	10.42	+0.15	+1.67	−1.49	−0.03
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	10.29	10.43	+0.14	0.00	−0.41	+0.55
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	−1.38	−0.03
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	11.03	10.99	−0.04	0.00	−0.06	+0.01
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	11.64	11.53	−0.11	0.00	−0.39	+0.28
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	12.95	12.76	−0.19	0.00	−0.38	+0.18
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	9.93	9.49	−0.44	0.00	−0.41	−0.03
Health System Capability	Human Capital	10.71	10.17	−0.54	+0.51	−0.98	−0.07
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	11.84	11.26	−0.58	0.00	−0.55	−0.03
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	9.73	9.15	−0.58	0.00	−0.59	+0.01
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	10.45	9.87	−0.58	0.00	−0.57	−0.01
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	10.20	9.61	−0.59	0.00	−0.58	−0.01
Foundational Education	Human Capital	13.83	13.21	−0.62	0.00	−0.71	+0.09
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	12.15	11.40	−0.75	0.00	−0.88	+0.13
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	10.61	9.82	−0.79	0.00	−0.70	−0.09
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	10.60	9.73	−0.87	+0.63	−1.60	+0.09
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	8.63	7.73	−0.90	0.00	−0.89	−0.01
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	9.25	8.33	−0.92	0.00	−0.88	−0.04
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	6.13	5.19	−0.94	0.00	−0.93	−0.02
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	4.74	3.79	−0.95	0.00	−0.95	0.00
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	10.90	9.93	−0.97	0.00	−1.10	+0.14
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	10.64	9.67	−0.97	0.00	−1.20	+0.23
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	6.77	5.78	−0.99	0.00	−0.92	−0.07
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	4.11	3.12	−0.99	0.00	−0.96	−0.03
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	10.37	9.36	−1.01	0.00	−1.23	+0.22
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	11.52	10.47	−1.05	0.00	−1.09	+0.04
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	6.58	5.50	−1.08	0.00	−0.92	−0.16
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	11.51	10.42	−1.09	0.00	−1.41	+0.32
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.07	8.92	−1.15	0.00	−1.11	−0.04
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	11.20	10.00	−1.20	0.00	−1.09	−0.11
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	8.96	7.76	−1.20	0.00	−1.26	+0.06
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.62	10.40	−1.22	0.00	−0.99	−0.22
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	6.36	5.12	−1.24	0.00	−1.29	+0.05
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	8.40	7.15	−1.25	0.00	−0.94	−0.31
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	6.61	5.28	−1.33	0.00	−1.16	−0.17
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	8.72	7.38	−1.34	0.00	−1.48	+0.14
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.47	9.04	−1.43	0.00	−1.36	−0.06
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	7.85	6.40	−1.45	0.00	−1.47	+0.01
Space Operations	National Security	5.18	3.73	−1.45	0.00	−1.28	−0.17
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	11.22	9.76	−1.46	0.00	−1.34	−0.11
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	11.55	10.09	−1.46	0.00	−1.52	+0.06
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	9.74	8.21	−1.53	0.00	−1.47	−0.06
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	8.42	6.87	−1.55	0.00	−1.40	−0.16
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	9.63	8.08	−1.55	0.00	−1.46	−0.09
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	11.49	9.94	−1.55	0.00	−1.44	−0.11
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	9.50	7.89	−1.61	0.00	−1.56	−0.04
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	11.57	9.95	−1.62	0.00	−1.55	−0.07
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	8.71	7.00	−1.71	0.00	−1.74	+0.03
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	9.46	7.47	−1.99	0.00	−1.94	−0.06
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	6.30	4.30	−2.00	0.00	−1.81	−0.19
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	9.92	7.83	−2.09	0.00	−2.01	−0.08
Maritime Power	National Security	7.36	5.27	−2.09	0.00	−2.05	−0.04
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	9.44	7.06	−2.38	0.00	−2.15	−0.23
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	11.43	8.86	−2.57	+0.44	−2.81	−0.20

Seed 18 of experiment cycle-002.e4-pol. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.