A good simulation (90th percentile) · cycle-002.e4-qat

Simulation 26

Qatar, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 26: a good simulation (90th percentile) of the experiment's 30. Capability index 9.65 at the 1996 position, 9.52 in 2026; 154 actions over 30 rounds and 5 shocks.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 26

The experiment · The other representative simulations: 3 (median simulation), 10 (a poor simulation (10th percentile))

Outcome

From the 1996 position to 2026.

Capability index: 9.52 (−0.13); From 9.65
Rank by index: 52; From 50
Domains at Tier 1: 1; From 0
Events: 5 shocks; 0 upside events

Trajectory by domain

The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.

ShockUpside event

Capability index by round

Pathway, round by round

Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.

Round	Decision	Events	Index
1997	Build Resource Infrastructure 14 Build Energy Infrastructure 14 Build Financial Infrastructure 14 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 14 Build Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14		9.66 +0.010
1998	Build Resource Infrastructure 14 Build Energy Infrastructure 14 Build Financial Infrastructure 14 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 14 Build Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14		9.68 +0.021
1999	Build Resource Infrastructure 14 Build Energy Infrastructure 14 Build Financial Infrastructure 14 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 14 Build Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14		9.71 +0.031
2000	Build Resource Infrastructure 14 Build Energy Infrastructure 14 Build Financial Infrastructure 14 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 14 Build Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14		9.75 +0.036
2001	Build Resource Infrastructure 14 Build Energy Infrastructure 14 Build Financial Infrastructure 14 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 14 Build Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14 Build Advanced Education 14 Build Research Talent & Knowledge Creation 14 Build Social Infrastructure 14 Build Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 14 Build Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 14		9.80 +0.052
2002	Build Resource Infrastructure 14 Build Energy Infrastructure 14 Build Financial Infrastructure 14 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 14 Build Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14 Build Advanced Education 14 Build Research Talent & Knowledge Creation 14 Build Social Infrastructure 14 Build Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 7		9.86 +0.060
2003	Build Resource Infrastructure 14 Build Energy Infrastructure 14 Build Financial Infrastructure 14 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 14 Build Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14 Build Advanced Education 14 Build Research Talent & Knowledge Creation 2		9.92 +0.062
2004	Build Resource Infrastructure 14 Build Energy Infrastructure 14 Build Financial Infrastructure 14 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 14 Build Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14 Build Advanced Education 13		9.98 +0.054
2005	Build Resource Infrastructure 14 Build Energy Infrastructure 14 Build Financial Infrastructure 14 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 14 Build Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14 Build Advanced Education 9		10.03 +0.051
2006	Build Advanced Education 14 Build Research Talent & Knowledge Creation 14 Build Social Infrastructure 14 Build Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 14 Build Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 14 Build Transport Infrastructure 4		10.08 +0.052
2007	Build Advanced Education 14 Build Research Talent & Knowledge Creation 14 Build Social Infrastructure 14 Build Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 14 Build Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 13		10.13 +0.054
2008	Build Advanced Education 14 Build Research Talent & Knowledge Creation 14 Build Social Infrastructure 14 Build Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 14 Build Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 9	Global funding seizure	10.06 −0.070
2009	Build Advanced Education 14 Build Research Talent & Knowledge Creation 14 Build Social Infrastructure 14 Build Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 14 Build Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 5		10.11 +0.049
2010	Build Advanced Education 13 Build Research Talent & Knowledge Creation 13 Build Social Infrastructure 13 Build Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 13 Build Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 4		10.16 +0.045
2011	Build Transport Infrastructure 13 Build Health System Capability 13 Build Social Infrastructure 13 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 13 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 3		10.20 +0.042
2012	Build Transport Infrastructure 13 Build Health System Capability 13 Build Social Infrastructure 13 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 13 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 1		10.24 +0.038
2013	Build Transport Infrastructure 13 Build Health System Capability 13 Build Social Infrastructure 13 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 13		10.27 +0.034
2014	Build Alliances & Security Cooperation 5 Buy Air Power 5 Buy Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 5 Buy Intelligence & Assessment 5 Buy Force Generation & Mobilisation 5 Build Transport Infrastructure 13 Build Social Infrastructure 11	Global funding seizure	10.22 −0.056
2015	Build Alliances & Security Cooperation 5 Buy Air Power 5 Buy Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 5 Buy Intelligence & Assessment 5 Buy Force Generation & Mobilisation 5 Build Transport Infrastructure 13 Build Social Infrastructure 8		10.26 +0.043
2016	Build Transport Infrastructure 13 Build Social Infrastructure 13 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 13 Build Energy Infrastructure 5		10.29 +0.033
2017	Build Transport Infrastructure 13 Build Social Infrastructure 13 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 13 Build Energy Infrastructure 2	Trade bloc rupture	10.17 −0.126
2018	Build Transport Infrastructure 10		10.04 −0.132
2019	Build Transport Infrastructure 11		9.90 −0.138
2020	Build Transport Infrastructure 11 Build Social Infrastructure 11 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 11 Build Energy Infrastructure 9	Severe pandemic	9.65 −0.243
2021	Build Transport Infrastructure 13 Build Social Infrastructure 13 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 13 Build Energy Infrastructure 7		9.65 0.000
2022	Build Transport Infrastructure 12 Build Social Infrastructure 12 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 12 Build Energy Infrastructure 7		9.65 +0.001
2023	Partner Digital & AI Competence 5 Partner Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 5 Partner Innovation & Commercialisation 5 Partner Energy Technologies 5 Partner Resource Infrastructure 5	Regional war spillover	9.47 −0.187
2024	Partner Digital & AI Competence 5 Partner Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 5 Partner Innovation & Commercialisation 5 Partner Energy Technologies 5 Partner Resource Infrastructure 5		9.48 +0.017
2025	Partner Digital & AI Competence 5 Partner Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 5 Partner Innovation & Commercialisation 5 Partner Energy Technologies 5 Partner Resource Infrastructure 5		9.50 +0.016
2026	Partner Digital & AI Competence 5 Partner Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 5 Partner Innovation & Commercialisation 5 Partner Energy Technologies 5 Partner Resource Infrastructure 5		9.52 +0.016

Credits

What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.

Tiers by round

Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.

Domain	1996					2001					2006					2011					2016					2021					2026
Critical Technology	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	8	8
Strategic Infrastructure	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
National Security	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
Human Capital	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	6	6	5	5	5	4	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Information & Influence	6	6	6	6	5	5	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4
Governance & Integrity	10	10	10	9	9	8	7	7	6	5	5	5	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5
Financial Strength	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	7	6	6	6	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	6	6	6
Production & Innovation	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	8	8	8	9	9	9	9	9	9	9
Trade & Investment	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	8	8	9	9	9	9	9	9	9

Probes

What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.

Probe	Index	Score sum	Tier 1
Hold instead of the method	−1.255	−94.8	−1.00
No shocks	+1.233	+85.7	0.00
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0	0.00
Without the 1st largest decision	+0.008	+0.2	0.00
Without the 2nd largest decision	+0.005	−0.1	0.00
Without the 3rd largest decision	+0.021	+1.2	0.00
Without the 4th largest decision	+0.005	+0.3	0.00
Without the 5th largest decision	+0.007	+0.2	0.00
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.522	+36.5	0.00
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.279	+19.6	0.00
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.212	+15.3	0.00

Every group over the simulation

Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	1996	2026	Change	Invested	Events	Graph
Advanced Education	Human Capital	10.10	17.28	+7.18	+7.56	−0.39	0.00
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	7.72	13.88	+6.16	+5.47	−0.42	+1.11
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.68	18.57	+5.89	+6.65	−0.67	−0.07
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.19	17.22	+5.03	+5.75	−0.78	+0.06
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	13.63	18.32	+4.69	+5.63	−0.67	−0.27
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	11.43	15.61	+4.18	+5.33	−1.03	−0.11
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.81	15.91	+4.10	+4.99	−0.76	−0.14
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	13.27	17.08	+3.81	+4.43	−0.82	+0.20
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.97	16.33	+3.36	+3.77	−0.63	+0.22
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	14.57	17.58	+3.01	+3.94	−0.76	−0.16
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	11.97	14.67	+2.70	+3.88	−1.08	−0.11
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	9.93	11.95	+2.02	+3.36	−1.29	−0.05
Health System Capability	Human Capital	13.28	14.24	+0.96	+1.68	−0.71	0.00
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	5.16	6.09	+0.93	+1.82	−1.09	+0.20
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	9.40	10.31	+0.91	+1.10	−0.53	+0.33
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	6.89	7.68	+0.79	+1.29	−1.18	+0.68
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	6.67	7.35	+0.68	+1.25	−1.30	+0.73
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	−0.74	0.00
Air Power	National Security	7.43	7.35	−0.08	+0.71	−0.69	−0.10
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	8.54	8.42	−0.12	+0.65	−0.67	−0.11
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	7.17	7.04	−0.13	+0.61	−0.69	−0.05
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	13.41	13.16	−0.25	+0.44	−0.97	+0.27
Population Health	Human Capital	13.38	13.08	−0.30	0.00	−0.67	+0.36
Foundational Education	Human Capital	9.89	9.58	−0.31	0.00	−0.70	+0.39
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	5.70	5.28	−0.42	+0.79	−0.98	−0.23
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	11.56	11.10	−0.46	0.00	−0.51	+0.05
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	12.42	11.88	−0.54	0.00	−0.90	+0.36
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	8.57	8.03	−0.54	0.00	−0.53	−0.01
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	9.09	8.54	−0.55	0.00	−0.53	−0.03
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	7.33	6.75	−0.58	0.00	−0.72	+0.14
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	13.16	12.57	−0.59	+0.19	−0.67	−0.11
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	11.06	10.45	−0.61	0.00	−0.67	+0.05
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	2.90	2.20	−0.70	0.00	−1.13	+0.42
Land Power	National Security	7.73	7.03	−0.70	0.00	−0.66	−0.04
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	6.36	5.66	−0.70	0.00	−0.73	+0.04
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	7.79	7.07	−0.72	0.00	−0.72	0.00
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	8.79	8.05	−0.74	0.00	−0.70	−0.04
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	8.85	8.11	−0.74	0.00	−1.04	+0.30
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	12.33	11.59	−0.74	0.00	−0.65	−0.09
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	8.50	7.76	−0.74	0.00	−0.70	−0.04
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	7.53	6.74	−0.79	0.00	−0.66	−0.13
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	10.63	9.80	−0.83	0.00	−0.93	+0.10
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	7.69	6.83	−0.86	0.00	−0.91	+0.05
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	5.46	4.55	−0.91	0.00	−0.74	−0.18
Maritime Power	National Security	5.54	4.57	−0.97	0.00	−0.94	−0.03
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	7.28	6.29	−0.99	0.00	−1.06	+0.07
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	6.79	5.74	−1.05	0.00	−1.85	+0.80
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	12.66	11.56	−1.10	0.00	−2.02	+0.93
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	5.43	4.32	−1.11	0.00	−1.08	−0.03
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	2.81	1.69	−1.12	0.00	−1.13	+0.01
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	1.78	0.66	−1.12	0.00	−1.14	+0.01
Space Operations	National Security	4.58	3.44	−1.14	0.00	−0.69	−0.45
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	7.61	6.46	−1.15	0.00	−1.05	−0.10
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	3.95	2.74	−1.21	0.00	−1.11	−0.10
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	11.67	10.37	−1.30	0.00	−1.23	−0.07
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	3.32	1.93	−1.39	0.00	−1.65	+0.27
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	1.39	0.00	−1.39	0.00	−1.69	+0.06
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	9.07	7.63	−1.44	0.00	−1.27	−0.17
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	9.20	7.73	−1.47	0.00	−1.26	−0.20
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	11.51	10.03	−1.48	0.00	−1.69	+0.22
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	13.90	12.38	−1.52	0.00	−1.47	−0.05
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	11.71	10.19	−1.52	0.00	−1.58	+0.06
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	11.36	9.82	−1.54	0.00	−1.59	+0.04
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	10.23	8.68	−1.55	0.00	−1.50	−0.05
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	12.84	11.16	−1.68	0.00	−1.55	−0.12
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	12.53	10.73	−1.80	0.00	−2.00	+0.20
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	10.37	8.56	−1.81	0.00	−1.80	−0.01
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	11.92	10.01	−1.91	0.00	−1.81	−0.10
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	15.83	13.87	−1.96	0.00	−1.94	−0.02
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	12.79	10.62	−2.17	0.00	−2.03	−0.14
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	11.96	9.78	−2.18	0.00	−2.02	−0.16
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	11.64	9.35	−2.29	0.00	−2.03	−0.27
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	12.15	9.78	−2.37	0.00	−2.27	−0.10

Seed 26 of experiment cycle-002.e4-qat. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.