E4 · cycle-002.e4-qat

Qatar, scripted, 30 years from 1996

30 simulations of 30 rounds from the 1996 position. Qatar decides by the scripted method; scripted events: Global funding seizure in year 12, Global funding seizure in year 18, Trade bloc rupture in year 21, Severe pandemic in year 24, Regional war spillover in year 27.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seeds 1–30 · elasticity sampled within each bracket

The same configuration in other cycles: cycle 3.

Every simulation · Compare with another experiment · More experiments like this

Not a forecast

Simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values, to compare methods and test the model. Other nations stay at their 2026 ratings throughout.

Outcome across simulations

The median at 2026, with the 10th to the 90th percentile of the 30 simulations under it.

Capability index: 9.51 (−0.15); From 9.65; 9.49 to 9.52
Rank by index: 52; From 50; 52 to 52
Domains at Tier 1: 1; From 0; 1 to 1
Tier rank: 19; From 45; 19 to 19

Capability index by round

Rank by index, by round

Every objective at the position and at the horizon
Objective	1996	10th percentile	Median	90th percentile	Better
Capability indexprimary	9.65	9.49	9.51	9.52	higher
Rank by index	50	52	52	52	lower
Tier rank	45	19	19	19	lower
Domains at Tier 1	0	1	1	1	higher
Score sum	680.7	677.0	677.8	678.7	higher
Goal-weighted score	680.7	677.0	677.8	678.7	higher
Resilient score	680.7	677.8 (mean score sum over the simulations)			higher

The capability index is the mean of the three dimensions, each the mean of its domains, each the mean of its groups. Tiers are Pareto layers within each domain; the tier rank orders nations by domains held at Tier 1, then Tier 2, and so on. The goal-weighted score is the score sum unless the experiment sets a goal. The primary objective is the one the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it.

Credits

What each round’s credits went on in the median simulation. Across all simulations, build took 92 per cent, buy took 3 per cent, partner took 6 per cent of the 1,679 credits a simulation spent on actions.

Against history

Started from a reconstructed 1996 position and played along the pathway and shocks Qatar actually had, then scored against the 2026 ratings. The position is an estimate, so part of any error is the reconstruction's. The calibration summary across all fifty nations is on the cycle's page under Loop.

Index 1996: 9.65; reconstructed
Observed 2026: 9.39; the Index's rating
Simulated 2026: 9.51; 9.45 to 9.56
Skill against persistence: −0.39; group error 1.96 against 1.41 if nothing changed

Domain	1996	Observed	Simulated	Bias	Direction
Critical Technology	4.04	2.91	3.26 3.2–3.3	+0.35	right
Strategic Infrastructure	11.16	11.26	13.48 13.4–13.5	+2.22	wrong
National Security	6.19	7.23	5.67 5.6–5.7	−1.56	wrong
Human Capital	10.33	11.08	11.75 11.7–11.8	+0.67	right
Information & Influence	9.75	11.01	10.29 10.2–10.4	−0.72	right
Governance & Integrity	10.42	8.77	10.27 10.2–10.3	+1.50	wrong
Financial Strength	12.75	12.45	11.72 11.7–11.8	−0.72	right
Production & Innovation	10.34	8.87	9.16 9.1–9.2	+0.29	right
Trade & Investment	11.87	10.96	9.95 9.9–10.0	−1.01	right

The history it was played under: shocks and events

2008 · S02 × 0.5 The global financial crisis strained Qatari banks and real estate and cut hydrocarbon revenues, prompting state support for local institutions.
2014 · S02 × 0.4 The oil price collapse reduced government revenue and forced spending restraint, though Qatar's gas contracts and reserves cushioned the shock.
2017 · S01 × 1 Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain and Egypt cut diplomatic and transport ties, closing the sole land border and regional airspace and forcing rapid supply-chain rerouting.
2020 · S10 × 0.6 COVID-19 overwhelmed parts of the health system, especially among migrant workers, and forced World Cup-related construction and service disruptions.
2023 · S03 × 0.3 Red Sea shipping attacks from the Gaza war spillover raised insurance and forced some Qatari LNG shipments around the Cape.

The pathway: what it prioritised, period by period

1997–2005 · build · 5% each The new emir consolidated LNG expansion, built state institutions and launched Al Jazeera as a strategic media voice. (Resource Infrastructure, Energy Infrastructure, Financial Infrastructure, Government Effectiveness & Public Administration, Information Environment & Strategic Communication)
2001–2010 · build · 5% each Education City, Qatar Foundation and foreign campuses grew alongside sovereign wealth accumulation and mediation diplomacy. (Advanced Education, Research Talent & Knowledge Creation, Social Infrastructure, Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power, Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks)
2004–2013 · build · 5% each Infrastructure for the Asian Games and early World Cup bid expanded Doha's transport, health, water and digital backbone. (Transport Infrastructure, Health System Capability, Social Infrastructure, Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure, Communications & Digital Infrastructure)
2008–2015 · buy · 2% each Qatar bought advanced Western air-defence and combat aircraft and deepened basing and training ties with the US-led coalition. (Alliances & Security Cooperation, Air Power, Strategic Strike & Missile Defence, Intelligence & Assessment, Force Generation & Mobilisation)
2010–2022 · build · 5% each World Cup preparation built metro, airport, port, stadiums and utilities on an accelerated timetable. (Transport Infrastructure, Social Infrastructure, Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure, Energy Infrastructure, Financial Infrastructure)
2017–2022 · build · 5% each The blockade compelled rapid domestic food, logistics and import-substitution capacity and new trade corridors. (Agriculture & Food Infrastructure, Industrial & Sectoral Base, Trade Facilitation & Logistics, National Resilience & Crisis Management, Export Capability & Sophistication)
2018–2026 · partner · 2% each Qatar partnered on smart-government, AI and cybersecurity while expanding North Field LNG and adding solar capacity. (Digital & AI Competence, Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies, Innovation & Commercialisation, Energy Technologies, Resource Infrastructure)

Reconstruction notes (deepseek-v4-pro): The main uncertainty is Qatar's small base and rapid wealth-driven modernisation: scores for research, advanced education and health are inferred from spending rather than outcome data. The blockade period is well documented but its long-term institutional effects on food security and trade remain contested. National security scores are approximate because Qatar's force is small, bought rather than generated domestically, and much capability sits with US basing and partnership.

Report

Written from the simulation record by the loop's narrator. Every figure names the query it came from, in square brackets.

Batch cycle-002. Model 0.1.0, graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.0. 30 simulations, seeds 1 to 30; probes on 10. Every figure is a distribution over simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values; it shows what the model implies under these settings, not what will happen. Other nations are frozen at their 2026 ratings. No reconstructed historical data is used in this experiment.

Headline

Qatar played 30 rounds from 1996 under the scripted method, with scripted events, 30 times. Its capability index moved from 9.65 to a median of 9.50 (−0.15), with 90 per cent of simulations between 9.49 and 9.52 [experiment_objectives].

Starting position

In 1996 the nation ranks 50 on the index against the frozen field, holds 0 of nine domains at Tier 1 and has a tier rank of 45. Its base income is 271 credits a year, calibrated so that its 2026 position is affordable with headroom for investment.

What was decided

A simulation spent a median of 1,678 credits on moves. The five groups that took most were Social Infrastructure (build, 216 credits, 12.9 per cent); Transport Infrastructure (build, 155 credits, 9.2 per cent); Energy Infrastructure (build, 152 credits, 9.0 per cent); Advanced Education (build, 130 credits, 7.7 per cent); Financial Infrastructure (build, 122 credits, 7.3 per cent) [experiment_decisions_by_group]. By mode: build 92 per cent, partner 6 per cent, buy 3 per cent [experiment_decisions_by_group]. Concentration of spending (HHI) had a median of 0.074, and the most repeated action appeared in 60 per cent of rounds.

The leading domain by period: rounds 1 to 5, Strategic Infrastructure; rounds 6 to 10, Strategic Infrastructure; rounds 11 to 15, Human Capital; rounds 16 to 20, Strategic Infrastructure; rounds 21 to 25, Strategic Infrastructure; rounds 26 to 30, Strategic Infrastructure [experiment_spend_by_period].

What the world did

A median simulation saw 5 shocks and 0 upside events. The most damaging per firing were S01 (30 firings in 30 simulations, −31.3 points each); S10 (30 firings in 30 simulations, −17.8 points each); S03 (30 firings in 30 simulations, −14.9 points each) [experiment_shocks].

The groups that lost most to shocks, per simulation: Economic Leverage & Dependence −2.27; Export Capability & Sophistication −2.03; Monetary & Currency Capability −2.03; Trade Facilitation & Logistics −2.02 [experiment_shock_damage_by_group].

The edges that carried most change through the graph, per simulation: Advanced Education to Research Talent & Knowledge Creation (+0.92 points); Research Talent & Knowledge Creation to Innovation & Commercialisation (+0.75 points); Research Talent & Knowledge Creation to Biotechnology & Health Technologies (+0.69 points) [experiment_propagation_by_edge].

Where it ended

At 2026 the median rank is 52 (5th to 95th percentile 52 to 52), the median count of Tier 1 domains 1 (1 to 1) and the median tier rank 19; the resilient score, the mean score sum over simulations, is 678 [experiment_objectives].

Tier 1 probability changed most in: strategic infrastructure (0 to 100 per cent of simulations) [experiment_tiers_by_round].

Why

Without shocks the index ends +1.233 higher on average, so the shocks cost about 1.233 index points [experiment_probe_attribution].

Holding instead of following this method changes the index by −1.255: that is the method's worth against doing nothing [experiment_probe_attribution].

Removing any single one of the five largest actions changes the index by between +0.005 and +0.021, for example 2009 build Advanced Education (14 credits) [experiment_probe_attribution]. The largest actions by credits come late, when income is highest, and are rarely the most valuable.

Removing the largest shock of a simulation raises the index by +0.522 on average [experiment_probe_attribution].

The replay probe reproduces the simulations exactly (index change 0.000000), so the attributions are clean [experiment_probe_attribution].

Surprises

tier_jump (warn): largest gain in one domain within five years: 4 tiers (30 simulations above 2).

saturation_low (warn): 100% of simulations end with a group at 0 that did not start there (median 1 groups).

retired_words (warn): e4-qat/report.md: 'simulations' 2 time(s), first near line 39; use 'simulations'.

The simulation furthest from the median (seed 7) ends +0.02 from it, with 5 shocks and 0 upside events [experiment_outlier_simulations].

Comparison

This is the baseline (hold) experiment, or there is none for this nation in the batch.

Against history: from a reconstructed index of 9.65 the model ends at 9.51, where the 2026 ratings put it at 9.39. Group scores miss by 1.96 points on average, against 1.41 for assuming nothing changed (skill −0.39); the change in each domain has the right sign in 67 per cent of domains. Furthest below history: national security (−1.56); furthest above: strategic infrastructure (+2.22) [experiment_against_history]. The starting position is reconstructed, so part of the error is the reconstruction's.

What each decision and shock was worth

Counterfactual probes on the first 10 seeds: the same simulations with one thing changed, paired seed by seed. A removed decision or shock is taken out and the other decisions replayed unchanged, so the difference is that item's worth.

Probe	Index	Score sum	Tier 1	For example
Hold instead of the method	−1.255	−94.8	−1.00
No shocks	+1.233	+85.7	0.00
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0	0.00
Without the 1st largest decision	+0.008	+0.2	0.00	2009 build Advanced Education (14 credits)
Without the 2nd largest decision	+0.005	−0.1	0.00	2009 build Research Talent & Knowledge Creation (14 credits)
Without the 3rd largest decision	+0.021	+1.2	0.00	2009 build Social Infrastructure (14 credits)
Without the 4th largest decision	+0.005	+0.3	0.00	2009 build Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power (14 credits)
Without the 5th largest decision	+0.007	+0.2	0.00	2008 build Advanced Education (14 credits)
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.522	+36.5	0.00	2017 S01 (-31.3 points)
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.279	+19.6	0.00	2020 S10 (-17.7 points)
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.212	+15.3	0.00	2023 S03 (-14.9 points)

Simulations

Three simulations told round by round, each on its own page: the one nearest the median index at the horizon, and those nearest the 10th and the 90th percentile. Every one of the 30 is listed with its outcome on the simulations page.

All 30 simulations

Events

How often each shock and upside event began across the simulations. Shocks come from the ten downside scenarios and upside events from the ten upside ones, at their yearly likelihood.

Event	Kind	Simulations	Mean round	Points
Trade bloc rupture S01	Shock	100 per cent	21.0	−31.3
Global funding seizure S02	Shock	100 per cent	15.0	−7.4
Regional war spillover S03	Shock	100 per cent	27.0	−14.9
Severe pandemic S10	Shock	100 per cent	24.0	−17.8

Groups across simulations

Every capability group: its position, and its median and spread at the horizon across the simulations, with what the method spent on it.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	1996	2026	Change	Levels invested	Credits
Advanced Education	Human Capital	10.10	17.27 17.24 to 17.28	+7.17	7.57	130
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	7.72	13.67 13.41 to 13.88	+5.95	5.48	96
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.68	18.60 18.56 to 18.68	+5.92	6.64	216
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.19	17.14 17.09 to 17.18	+4.95	5.76	155
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	13.63	18.31 18.22 to 18.37	+4.68	5.63	122
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	11.43	15.63 15.60 to 15.65	+4.20	5.33	122
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.81	15.93 15.88 to 15.99	+4.12	5.00	152
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	13.27	17.08 16.97 to 17.19	+3.81	4.43	122
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.97	16.25 16.18 to 16.32	+3.28	3.79	102
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	14.57	17.53 17.48 to 17.60	+2.96	3.95	141
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	11.97	14.66 14.62 to 14.72	+2.69	3.88	88
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	9.93	11.92 11.88 to 11.96	+1.99	3.37	59
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	9.40	10.39 10.27 to 10.46	+0.99	1.09	19
Health System Capability	Human Capital	13.28	14.27 14.18 to 14.37	+0.99	1.67	40
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	5.16	6.04 5.98 to 6.09	+0.88	1.82	19
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	6.89	7.58 7.42 to 7.67	+0.69	1.30	19
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	6.67	7.34 7.09 to 7.44	+0.67	1.25	19
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	0.00	0.00 0.00 to 0.00	0.00	0.00	0
Air Power	National Security	7.43	7.33 7.30 to 7.35	−0.10	0.71	11
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	7.17	7.04 7.02 to 7.07	−0.13	0.61	11
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	8.54	8.40 8.36 to 8.44	−0.14	0.65	11
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	13.41	13.10 13.03 to 13.16	−0.31	0.44	11
Foundational Education	Human Capital	9.89	9.50 9.37 to 9.59	−0.39	0.00	0
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	11.56	11.15 11.11 to 11.19	−0.41	0.00	0
Population Health	Human Capital	13.38	12.97 12.94 to 13.04	−0.41	0.00	0
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	5.70	5.23 5.13 to 5.30	−0.47	0.79	11
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	8.85	8.37 8.12 to 8.56	−0.48	0.00	0
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	7.33	6.80 6.75 to 6.85	−0.53	0.00	0
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	8.57	8.02 8.02 to 8.03	−0.55	0.00	0
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	13.16	12.60 12.56 to 12.64	−0.56	0.20	4
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	12.42	11.86 11.74 to 11.96	−0.56	0.00	0
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	9.09	8.52 8.51 to 8.54	−0.57	0.00	0
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	11.06	10.42 10.40 to 10.46	−0.64	0.00	0
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	6.36	5.66 5.64 to 5.67	−0.70	0.00	0
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	2.90	2.19 2.04 to 2.31	−0.71	0.00	0
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	7.79	7.07 6.98 to 7.16	−0.72	0.00	0
Land Power	National Security	7.73	6.99 6.98 to 7.03	−0.74	0.00	0
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	8.79	8.04 8.02 to 8.05	−0.75	0.00	0
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	12.33	11.58 11.55 to 11.60	−0.75	0.00	0
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	8.50	7.75 7.74 to 7.77	−0.75	0.00	0
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	7.53	6.77 6.74 to 6.80	−0.76	0.00	0
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	7.69	6.82 6.78 to 6.85	−0.87	0.00	0
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	10.63	9.76 9.74 to 9.79	−0.87	0.00	0
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	5.46	4.56 4.54 to 4.60	−0.90	0.00	0
Maritime Power	National Security	5.54	4.57 4.56 to 4.58	−0.97	0.00	0
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	7.28	6.31 6.29 to 6.36	−0.97	0.00	0
Space Operations	National Security	4.58	3.54 3.45 to 3.60	−1.04	0.00	0
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	1.78	0.67 0.65 to 0.68	−1.11	0.00	0
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	6.79	5.64 5.47 to 5.86	−1.15	0.00	0
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	5.43	4.25 4.14 to 4.35	−1.18	0.00	0
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	2.81	1.62 1.56 to 1.68	−1.19	0.00	0
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	7.61	6.42 6.39 to 6.45	−1.19	0.00	0
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	3.95	2.75 2.73 to 2.77	−1.20	0.00	0
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	12.66	11.40 11.23 to 11.58	−1.26	0.00	0
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	11.67	10.37 10.35 to 10.39	−1.30	0.00	0
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	1.39	0.00 0.00 to 0.00	−1.39	0.00	0
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	3.32	1.91 1.82 to 1.97	−1.41	0.00	0
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	9.07	7.65 7.62 to 7.69	−1.42	0.00	0
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	9.20	7.74 7.71 to 7.77	−1.46	0.00	0
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	11.51	10.04 9.94 to 10.12	−1.47	0.00	0
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	11.36	9.87 9.83 to 9.91	−1.49	0.00	0
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	13.90	12.39 12.36 to 12.44	−1.51	0.00	0
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	11.71	10.20 10.16 to 10.25	−1.51	0.00	0
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	10.23	8.70 8.68 to 8.71	−1.53	0.00	0
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	12.84	11.19 11.13 to 11.23	−1.65	0.00	0
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	10.37	8.56 8.54 to 8.61	−1.81	0.00	0
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	12.53	10.68 10.62 to 10.79	−1.85	0.00	0
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	11.92	9.99 9.97 to 10.01	−1.93	0.00	0
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	15.83	13.79 13.71 to 13.87	−2.04	0.00	0
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	12.79	10.62 10.57 to 10.66	−2.17	0.00	0
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	11.96	9.79 9.77 to 9.82	−2.17	0.00	0
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	11.64	9.36 9.32 to 9.40	−2.28	0.00	0
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	12.15	9.73 9.65 to 9.82	−2.42	0.00	0

Checks

The automated checks run on this experiment before anything was written about it. A warning is a candidate finding for the improvement loop.

passcredits_conservedlargest gap between credits in and credits accounted for: 2.8e-14
passscores_in_boundsscores range 0.000 to 19.162
passno_nans0 missing values in the trajectory and objectives
passprobe_replay_reproducesthe recorded moves played back reproduce the simulation to within 0.0e+00 points (10 simulations)
passledger_balancesthe edge ledger sums to the propagated change to within 1.1e-06 points
passmove_without_shocklargest one-year move in a group with no shock landing: 0.83 points; 0% of simulations have one above 3
warntier_jumplargest gain in one domain within five years: 4 tiers (30 simulations above 2)
passall_tier1_from_outside_top10starting rank 50; 0 simulations reach Tier 1 in all nine domains
passsaturation_high0% of simulations end with a group at 20 that did not start there (median 0 groups)
warnsaturation_low100% of simulations end with a group at 0 that did not start there (median 1 groups)
passspend_concentrationmedian concentration of spending across groups (HHI) 0.074; most funded group hard.strategic_infrastructure.social_infrastructure
passsame_actionthe most repeated move (group and mode) appears in a median 60% of rounds

Settings and versions

Experiment cycle-002.e4-qat. Every simulation records the model, graph and parameter versions, the scenario, the method and its seed, so it can be reproduced exactly.

Nation: Qatar (QAT)
Position: A reconstructed 1996 position, aligned to the Index's scale
Method: Scripted. Actions fixed in advance by the experiment: for a backcast, the nation's historical pathway.
Scenario: Scripted events: Global funding seizure in year 12, Global funding seizure in year 18, Trade bloc rupture in year 21, Severe pandemic in year 24, Regional war spillover in year 27
Objective: Capability index, the primary objective the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it
Horizon: 30 rounds, 1996 to 2026
Simulations: 30 seeds, 1 to 30. Every method in the batch faces the same draws for the same seed.
Graph elasticities: Drawn for each simulation, uniformly within each edge’s bracket
Income: Base credits 270.8 a round, moving with the economic groups
Versions: Model 0.1.0, Capability Dependency Graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.0
Batch: Backcast 1996-2026 (cycle-002), cycle 2 of the improvement loop
Runtime: 4.4 seconds in all; 996 microseconds a round

Not a forecast: Every figure is a distribution over the simulations of a structural model, reported to compare methods and test the model. None is a prediction of what a nation will do or become.
Structural parameters: Costs, decay, vulnerability and credits are structural seed values with low or medium confidence, set by domain with single-group exceptions. Five groups have no defensible value in a single-nation model and are flagged in the parameter tables.
Other nations are frozen: One nation is simulated at a time. Every other nation stays at its 2026 rating, so rank and tiers are measured against a still field; where the simulated nation rises past others their own tiers are not re-sorted.
Starting depth and mode are defaults: The position is the National Capability Index ratings. How institutionalised each capability is, and how much was built, bought or partnered, have no data behind them yet and start from structural defaults.
Credits are calibrated, not measured: Each nation’s income is set so that its position is affordable with headroom that rises with its fiscal capacity. It is not yet fiscal capacity as a share of GDP.