Simulation 3
Qatar, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 3: median simulation of the experiment's 30. Capability index 9.65 at the 1996 position, 9.51 in 2026; 156 actions over 30 rounds and 5 shocks.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 3
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 10 (a poor simulation (10th percentile)), 26 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 1996 position to 2026.
- Capability index
- 9.51 (−0.15)
- From 9.65
- Rank by index
- 52
- From 50
- Domains at Tier 1
- 1
- From 0
- Events
- 5 shocks
- 0 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1997 |
| 9.66 +0.010 | |
| 1998 |
| 9.68 +0.021 | |
| 1999 |
| 9.71 +0.031 | |
| 2000 |
| 9.75 +0.036 | |
| 2001 |
| 9.80 +0.052 | |
| 2002 |
| 9.86 +0.060 | |
| 2003 |
| 9.92 +0.062 | |
| 2004 |
| 9.98 +0.054 | |
| 2005 |
| 10.03 +0.052 | |
| 2006 |
| 10.08 +0.052 | |
| 2007 |
| 10.14 +0.054 | |
| 2008 |
| Global funding seizure | 10.07 −0.069 |
| 2009 |
| 10.12 +0.049 | |
| 2010 |
| 10.16 +0.045 | |
| 2011 |
| 10.20 +0.041 | |
| 2012 |
| 10.24 +0.037 | |
| 2013 |
| 10.27 +0.033 | |
| 2014 |
| Global funding seizure | 10.22 −0.057 |
| 2015 |
| 10.26 +0.043 | |
| 2016 |
| 10.29 +0.032 | |
| 2017 |
| Trade bloc rupture | 10.16 −0.126 |
| 2018 |
| 10.03 −0.133 | |
| 2019 |
| 9.89 −0.139 | |
| 2020 |
| Severe pandemic | 9.65 −0.245 |
| 2021 |
| 9.65 −0.001 | |
| 2022 |
| 9.65 0.000 | |
| 2023 |
| Regional war spillover | 9.46 −0.188 |
| 2024 |
| 9.47 +0.017 | |
| 2025 |
| 9.49 +0.015 | |
| 2026 |
| 9.51 +0.015 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 1996 | 2001 | 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | 2021 | 2026 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 8 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| National Security | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| Human Capital | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Information & Influence | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Governance & Integrity | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Financial Strength | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Production & Innovation | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| Trade & Investment | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds, this one among them: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −1.255 | −94.8 | −1.00 |
| No shocks | +1.233 | +85.7 | 0.00 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | +0.008 | +0.2 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | +0.005 | −0.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | +0.021 | +1.2 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | +0.005 | +0.3 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | +0.007 | +0.2 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.522 | +36.5 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.279 | +19.6 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.212 | +15.3 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 1996 | 2026 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 10.10 | 17.27 | +7.17 | +7.57 | 0.00 | −0.39 | −0.01 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.68 | 18.58 | +5.90 | +6.69 | 0.00 | −0.67 | −0.12 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 7.72 | 13.55 | +5.83 | +5.48 | 0.00 | −0.42 | +0.77 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.19 | 17.09 | +4.90 | +5.79 | 0.00 | −0.78 | −0.11 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.63 | 18.36 | +4.73 | +5.63 | 0.00 | −0.67 | −0.23 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 11.43 | 15.62 | +4.19 | +5.33 | 0.00 | −1.03 | −0.11 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.81 | 15.99 | +4.18 | +5.08 | 0.00 | −0.76 | −0.15 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 13.27 | 16.95 | +3.68 | +4.43 | 0.00 | −0.82 | +0.07 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.97 | 16.31 | +3.34 | +3.78 | 0.00 | −0.63 | +0.19 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.57 | 17.47 | +2.90 | +3.95 | 0.00 | −0.76 | −0.29 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 11.97 | 14.64 | +2.67 | +3.89 | 0.00 | −1.07 | −0.14 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 9.93 | 11.92 | +1.99 | +3.38 | 0.00 | −1.29 | −0.10 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 9.40 | 10.38 | +0.98 | +1.09 | 0.00 | −0.53 | +0.41 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 13.28 | 14.22 | +0.94 | +1.68 | 0.00 | −0.71 | −0.02 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 5.16 | 5.98 | +0.82 | +1.83 | 0.00 | −1.09 | +0.08 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 6.67 | 7.44 | +0.77 | +1.25 | 0.00 | −1.30 | +0.83 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 6.89 | 7.46 | +0.57 | +1.31 | 0.00 | −1.18 | +0.43 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.74 | 0.00 |
| Air Power | National Security | 7.43 | 7.34 | −0.09 | +0.71 | 0.00 | −0.69 | −0.12 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 7.17 | 7.07 | −0.10 | +0.61 | 0.00 | −0.69 | −0.03 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 8.54 | 8.41 | −0.13 | +0.65 | 0.00 | −0.67 | −0.11 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 9.89 | 9.63 | −0.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.70 | +0.44 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 13.38 | 13.04 | −0.34 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.67 | +0.33 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 13.41 | 13.04 | −0.37 | +0.44 | 0.00 | −0.97 | +0.15 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 8.85 | 8.43 | −0.42 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.04 | +0.62 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 11.56 | 11.12 | −0.44 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.51 | +0.07 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 12.42 | 11.96 | −0.46 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.90 | +0.44 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 5.70 | 5.17 | −0.53 | +0.79 | 0.00 | −0.98 | −0.34 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 8.57 | 8.03 | −0.54 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.53 | −0.01 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.16 | 12.61 | −0.55 | +0.21 | 0.00 | −0.67 | −0.09 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 7.33 | 6.77 | −0.56 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.72 | +0.16 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 9.09 | 8.51 | −0.58 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.53 | −0.06 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 2.90 | 2.30 | −0.60 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.12 | +0.52 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 7.79 | 7.18 | −0.61 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.72 | +0.11 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 11.06 | 10.44 | −0.62 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.67 | +0.05 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 6.36 | 5.66 | −0.70 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.73 | +0.04 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 8.50 | 7.77 | −0.73 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.70 | −0.03 |
| Land Power | National Security | 7.73 | 6.98 | −0.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.66 | −0.09 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 7.53 | 6.78 | −0.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.66 | −0.09 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 8.79 | 8.03 | −0.76 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.70 | −0.06 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 12.33 | 11.55 | −0.78 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.65 | −0.13 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 5.46 | 4.63 | −0.83 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.74 | −0.09 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 10.63 | 9.75 | −0.88 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.92 | +0.05 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 7.69 | 6.79 | −0.90 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.91 | +0.01 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 4.58 | 3.62 | −0.96 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.69 | −0.27 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 5.54 | 4.57 | −0.97 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.94 | −0.03 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 7.28 | 6.31 | −0.97 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.06 | +0.09 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 1.78 | 0.67 | −1.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.14 | +0.03 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 2.81 | 1.64 | −1.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.13 | −0.04 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 7.61 | 6.42 | −1.19 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.05 | −0.14 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 5.43 | 4.22 | −1.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.08 | −0.13 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 3.95 | 2.73 | −1.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.11 | −0.12 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 6.79 | 5.48 | −1.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.85 | +0.54 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 11.67 | 10.36 | −1.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.23 | −0.08 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 3.32 | 1.99 | −1.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.65 | +0.32 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 12.66 | 11.33 | −1.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.02 | +0.70 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 9.07 | 7.69 | −1.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.27 | −0.11 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 1.39 | 0.00 | −1.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.69 | +0.08 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 11.51 | 10.11 | −1.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.69 | +0.30 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 9.20 | 7.77 | −1.43 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.26 | −0.17 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 11.36 | 9.90 | −1.46 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.59 | +0.12 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 13.90 | 12.44 | −1.46 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.47 | +0.01 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 11.71 | 10.20 | −1.51 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.58 | +0.07 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 10.23 | 8.69 | −1.54 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.50 | −0.04 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 12.84 | 11.13 | −1.71 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.55 | −0.15 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 10.37 | 8.53 | −1.84 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.80 | −0.03 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 12.53 | 10.61 | −1.92 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.00 | +0.07 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 11.92 | 9.99 | −1.93 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.81 | −0.12 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 15.83 | 13.82 | −2.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.94 | −0.07 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 11.96 | 9.79 | −2.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.02 | −0.15 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 12.79 | 10.56 | −2.23 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.02 | −0.20 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 11.64 | 9.40 | −2.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.02 | −0.22 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 12.15 | 9.68 | −2.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.27 | −0.20 |
Seed 3 of experiment cycle-002.e4-qat. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.