A poor simulation (10th percentile) · cycle-002.e4-rus

Simulation 12

Russia, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 12: a poor simulation (10th percentile) of the experiment's 30. Capability index 11.19 at the 1996 position, 11.10 in 2026; 160 actions over 30 rounds and 9 shocks.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 12

The experiment · The other representative simulations: 24 (median simulation), 11 (a good simulation (90th percentile))

Outcome

From the 1996 position to 2026.

Capability index: 11.10 (−0.09); From 11.19
Rank by index: 35; From 35
Domains at Tier 1: 4; From 1
Events: 9 shocks; 0 upside events

Trajectory by domain

The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.

ShockUpside event

Capability index by round

Pathway, round by round

Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.

Round	Decision	Events	Index
1997	Partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 31 Partner Monetary & Currency Capability 31 Partner Financial System Depth & Access 31 Partner Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 31 Partner Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 21		11.25 +0.062
1998	Partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 31 Partner Monetary & Currency Capability 31 Partner Financial System Depth & Access 31 Partner Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 31 Partner Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 31	Global funding seizure	11.21 −0.042
1999	Build Internal Security & Order 33 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 33 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 33 Build Resource Infrastructure 33 Build Energy Infrastructure 33	Regional war spillover	11.14 −0.067
2000	Build Internal Security & Order 35 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 35 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 35 Build Resource Infrastructure 35 Build Energy Infrastructure 35		11.20 +0.062
2001	Build Internal Security & Order 36 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 36 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 36 Build Resource Infrastructure 36 Build Energy Infrastructure 36		11.27 +0.074
2002	Build Internal Security & Order 38 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 38 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 38 Build Resource Infrastructure 38 Build Energy Infrastructure 38		11.37 +0.092
2003	Build Internal Security & Order 39 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 39 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 39 Build Resource Infrastructure 39 Build Energy Infrastructure 39		11.47 +0.103
2004	Build Resource Infrastructure 41 Build Energy Infrastructure 41 Build Advanced Education 41 Build Health System Capability 41 Build Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 41		11.57 +0.100
2005	Build Resource Infrastructure 43 Build Energy Infrastructure 43 Build Advanced Education 43 Build Health System Capability 43 Build Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 43		11.67 +0.097
2006	Build Resource Infrastructure 44 Build Energy Infrastructure 44 Build Advanced Education 44 Build Health System Capability 44 Build Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 44		11.75 +0.088
2007	Build Resource Infrastructure 44 Build Energy Infrastructure 44 Build Advanced Education 44 Build Health System Capability 44 Build Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 44		11.83 +0.072
2008	Build Resource Infrastructure 44 Build Energy Infrastructure 44 Build Advanced Education 44 Build Health System Capability 44 Build Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 44 Buy Research Talent & Knowledge Creation 44 Buy Advanced Education 44 Buy Innovation & Commercialisation 44 Buy Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 44 Buy Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 44	Global funding seizureRegional war spillover	11.89 +0.065
2009	Buy Research Talent & Knowledge Creation 44 Buy Advanced Education 44 Buy Innovation & Commercialisation 44 Buy Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 44 Buy Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 44		12.05 +0.159
2010	Buy Research Talent & Knowledge Creation 43 Buy Advanced Education 43 Buy Innovation & Commercialisation 43 Buy Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 43 Buy Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 43		12.18 +0.129
2011	Buy Research Talent & Knowledge Creation 43 Buy Advanced Education 43 Buy Innovation & Commercialisation 43 Buy Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 43 Buy Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 43		12.28 +0.102
2012	Buy Research Talent & Knowledge Creation 43 Buy Advanced Education 43 Buy Innovation & Commercialisation 43 Buy Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 43 Buy Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 43 Build Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 43 Build Land Power 43 Build Air Power 43 Build Resource Infrastructure 43 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 43		12.36 +0.082
2013	Build Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 43 Build Land Power 43 Build Air Power 43 Build Resource Infrastructure 43 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 43		12.42 +0.053
2014	Build Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 44 Build Land Power 44 Build Air Power 44 Build Resource Infrastructure 44 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 44	Regional war spilloverTrade bloc rupture	12.17 −0.242
2015	Build Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 44 Build Land Power 44 Build Air Power 44 Build Resource Infrastructure 44 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 44		12.12 −0.059
2016	Build Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 37 Build Land Power 37 Build Air Power 37 Build Resource Infrastructure 37 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 37		12.04 −0.077
2017	Build Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 37 Build Digital & AI Competence 37 Build Transport Infrastructure 37 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 37 Build Population Health 37		12.09 +0.051
2018	Build Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 41 Build Digital & AI Competence 41 Build Transport Infrastructure 41 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 41 Build Population Health 41		12.15 +0.062
2019	Build Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 41 Build Digital & AI Competence 41 Build Transport Infrastructure 41 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 41 Build Population Health 41		12.21 +0.064
2020	Build Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 41 Build Digital & AI Competence 41 Build Transport Infrastructure 41 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 41 Build Population Health 41	Severe pandemic	11.82 −0.395
2021	Build Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 41 Build Digital & AI Competence 41 Build Transport Infrastructure 41 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 41 Build Population Health 41		11.90 +0.076
2022	Build Land Power 39 Build Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 39 Build Air Power 39 Build Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 39 Build Resource Infrastructure 39	Regional war spilloverTrade bloc rupture	11.43 −0.467
2023	Build Land Power 39 Build Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 39 Build Air Power 39 Build Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 39 Build Resource Infrastructure 39		11.26 −0.171
2024	Build Land Power 32 Build Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 32 Build Air Power 32 Build Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 32 Build Resource Infrastructure 32		11.07 −0.184
2025	Build Land Power 31 Build Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 31 Build Air Power 31 Build Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 31 Build Resource Infrastructure 31		11.09 +0.012
2026	Build Land Power 35 Build Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 35 Build Air Power 35 Build Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 35 Build Resource Infrastructure 6		11.10 +0.009

Credits

What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.

Tiers by round

Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.

Domain	1996					2001					2006					2011					2016					2021					2026
Critical Technology	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Strategic Infrastructure	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
National Security	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	2	1
Human Capital	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	4	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Information & Influence	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	6
Governance & Integrity	13	13	13	13	11	9	7	5	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Financial Strength	18	17	15	11	11	11	10	8	7	6	6	6	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	10	10	10	10	10
Production & Innovation	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	6	5	4	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
Trade & Investment	8	8	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	10	10	10	10	11	12	12	14	14	14	14

Probes

What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.

Probe	Index	Score sum	Tier 1
Hold instead of the method	−3.216	−249.1	−4.00
No shocks	+2.466	+169.2	+1.00
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0	0.00
Without the 1st largest decision	+0.003	+0.2	0.00
Without the 2nd largest decision	+0.002	+0.2	0.00
Without the 3rd largest decision	−0.014	−0.8	0.00
Without the 4th largest decision	−0.019	−1.6	0.00
Without the 5th largest decision	+0.004	+0.3	0.00
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.632	+43.5	0.00
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.522	+35.9	0.00
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.424	+28.7	0.00

Every group over the simulation

Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	1996	2026	Change	Invested	Events	Graph
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	6.27	19.59	+13.32	+17.04	−2.59	+0.04
Population Health	Human Capital	8.48	19.80	+11.32	+11.78	−1.29	+0.83
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	4.74	15.82	+11.08	+15.44	−4.38	+0.02
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	10.29	19.98	+9.69	+16.08	−0.95	+0.15
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	10.69	19.98	+9.29	+11.51	−1.76	+0.39
Health System Capability	Human Capital	11.03	18.89	+7.86	+9.26	−1.18	+0.50
Air Power	National Security	12.40	19.21	+6.81	+8.20	−1.35	−0.04
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	9.24	16.03	+6.79	+8.08	−1.06	−0.22
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.03	16.78	+6.75	+8.21	−1.44	−0.03
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.98	19.40	+6.42	+7.03	−2.19	+1.58
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	10.79	17.11	+6.32	+8.81	−3.04	+0.56
Land Power	National Security	13.60	19.34	+5.74	+7.19	−1.35	−0.11
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.62	18.29	+5.67	+8.96	−1.93	+0.28
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	8.86	14.01	+5.15	+9.13	−3.82	−0.16
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	14.57	19.72	+5.15	+9.55	−1.92	−0.63
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	14.78	19.20	+4.42	+5.62	−1.09	+0.94
Advanced Education	Human Capital	15.01	19.37	+4.36	+10.62	−0.83	+0.27
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	8.40	9.43	+1.03	+2.42	−1.55	+0.16
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	15.83	16.51	+0.68	0.00	−1.54	+2.22
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	8.69	9.10	+0.41	+3.81	−3.33	−0.07
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	12.26	12.65	+0.39	0.00	−1.04	+1.44
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	20.00	20.00	0.00	+4.48	−1.96	−0.11
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.30	12.12	−0.18	0.00	−1.84	+1.66
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	9.88	9.58	−0.30	0.00	−2.12	+1.81
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.24	11.89	−0.35	0.00	−1.60	+1.25
Foundational Education	Human Capital	14.19	13.60	−0.59	0.00	−1.33	+0.74
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	17.19	16.57	−0.62	0.00	−1.50	+0.88
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	11.00	10.32	−0.68	0.00	−2.11	+1.43
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	9.13	8.39	−0.74	+3.70	−4.44	+0.01
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	12.85	12.04	−0.81	0.00	−1.62	+0.81
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	12.80	11.74	−1.06	0.00	−1.03	−0.03
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	12.42	11.27	−1.15	0.00	−2.03	+0.89
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	10.77	9.61	−1.16	0.00	−1.06	−0.10
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	20.00	18.56	−1.44	0.00	−1.42	−0.02
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	13.33	11.84	−1.49	0.00	−1.58	+0.09
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	8.89	7.35	−1.54	0.00	−1.47	−0.07
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	20.00	18.43	−1.57	0.00	−1.77	+0.20
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	8.47	6.90	−1.57	0.00	−1.48	−0.08
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	8.44	6.86	−1.58	0.00	−1.48	−0.09
Space Operations	National Security	18.94	17.36	−1.58	0.00	−1.45	−0.13
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	13.21	11.60	−1.61	0.00	−2.39	+0.78
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	14.53	12.88	−1.65	0.00	−1.57	−0.09
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.06	9.20	−1.86	0.00	−1.63	−0.24
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	14.58	12.71	−1.87	0.00	−2.03	+0.15
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.28	8.37	−1.91	0.00	−1.78	−0.12
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	8.34	6.40	−1.94	0.00	−2.06	+0.11
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	13.83	11.86	−1.97	0.00	−2.04	+0.07
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	11.61	9.58	−2.03	0.00	−2.06	+0.03
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	8.61	6.54	−2.07	0.00	−2.18	+0.12
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	11.80	9.68	−2.12	0.00	−2.50	+0.38
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	9.02	6.84	−2.18	0.00	−2.15	−0.04
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	10.48	8.22	−2.26	0.00	−2.13	−0.13
Maritime Power	National Security	13.43	10.98	−2.45	0.00	−2.43	−0.02
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	9.74	7.20	−2.54	0.00	−2.95	+0.42
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	9.50	6.89	−2.61	0.00	−2.66	+0.05
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	11.92	9.27	−2.65	0.00	−2.61	−0.05
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	8.61	5.89	−2.72	0.00	−2.69	−0.03
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	12.56	9.82	−2.74	0.00	−3.01	+0.27
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	10.51	7.77	−2.74	0.00	−3.63	+0.89
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	8.75	5.78	−2.97	0.00	−3.16	+0.19
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	7.64	4.58	−3.06	0.00	−2.89	−0.17
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	11.43	8.26	−3.17	0.00	−2.60	−0.57
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	9.02	5.80	−3.22	0.00	−3.21	−0.01
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	11.90	8.63	−3.27	0.00	−3.57	+0.31
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	13.33	10.01	−3.32	0.00	−3.06	−0.26
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	8.57	5.24	−3.33	0.00	−3.17	−0.16
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	9.02	5.47	−3.55	0.00	−3.50	−0.06
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	7.59	3.94	−3.65	0.00	−3.64	−0.02
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	9.27	5.23	−4.04	0.00	−4.80	+0.76
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	9.34	4.64	−4.70	0.00	−4.42	−0.27
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	11.70	6.99	−4.71	0.00	−5.25	+0.55
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	9.93	5.14	−4.79	0.00	−4.39	−0.40
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	9.07	4.21	−4.86	0.00	−4.44	−0.42

Seed 12 of experiment cycle-002.e4-rus. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.