Median simulation · cycle-002.e4-rus

Simulation 24

Russia, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 24: median simulation of the experiment's 30. Capability index 11.19 at the 1996 position, 11.13 in 2026; 156 actions over 30 rounds and 9 shocks.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 24

The experiment · The other representative simulations: 12 (a poor simulation (10th percentile)), 11 (a good simulation (90th percentile))

Outcome

From the 1996 position to 2026.

Capability index: 11.13 (−0.06); From 11.19
Rank by index: 35; From 35
Domains at Tier 1: 4; From 1
Events: 9 shocks; 0 upside events

Trajectory by domain

The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.

ShockUpside event

Capability index by round

Pathway, round by round

Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.

Round	Decision	Events	Index
1997	Partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 31 Partner Monetary & Currency Capability 31 Partner Financial System Depth & Access 31 Partner Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 31 Partner Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 21		11.25 +0.062
1998	Partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 31 Partner Monetary & Currency Capability 31 Partner Financial System Depth & Access 31 Partner Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 31 Partner Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 31	Global funding seizure	11.21 −0.041
1999	Build Internal Security & Order 33 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 33 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 33 Build Resource Infrastructure 33 Build Energy Infrastructure 33	Regional war spillover	11.14 −0.067
2000	Build Internal Security & Order 35 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 35 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 35 Build Resource Infrastructure 35 Build Energy Infrastructure 35		11.20 +0.062
2001	Build Internal Security & Order 36 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 36 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 36 Build Resource Infrastructure 36 Build Energy Infrastructure 36		11.28 +0.075
2002	Build Internal Security & Order 38 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 38 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 38 Build Resource Infrastructure 38 Build Energy Infrastructure 38		11.37 +0.094
2003	Build Internal Security & Order 39 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 39 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 39 Build Resource Infrastructure 39 Build Energy Infrastructure 39		11.47 +0.105
2004	Build Resource Infrastructure 41 Build Energy Infrastructure 41 Build Advanced Education 41 Build Health System Capability 41 Build Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 41		11.58 +0.102
2005	Build Resource Infrastructure 43 Build Energy Infrastructure 43 Build Advanced Education 43 Build Health System Capability 43 Build Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 43		11.68 +0.100
2006	Build Resource Infrastructure 44 Build Energy Infrastructure 44 Build Advanced Education 44 Build Health System Capability 44 Build Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 44		11.77 +0.092
2007	Build Resource Infrastructure 44 Build Energy Infrastructure 44 Build Advanced Education 44 Build Health System Capability 44 Build Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 44		11.85 +0.076
2008	Build Resource Infrastructure 44 Build Energy Infrastructure 44 Build Advanced Education 44 Build Health System Capability 44 Build Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 44 Buy Research Talent & Knowledge Creation 44 Buy Advanced Education 44 Buy Innovation & Commercialisation 44 Buy Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 44 Buy Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 44	Global funding seizureRegional war spillover	11.91 +0.068
2009	Buy Research Talent & Knowledge Creation 44 Buy Advanced Education 44 Buy Innovation & Commercialisation 44 Buy Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 44 Buy Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 44		12.07 +0.160
2010	Buy Research Talent & Knowledge Creation 43 Buy Advanced Education 43 Buy Innovation & Commercialisation 43 Buy Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 43 Buy Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 43		12.21 +0.133
2011	Buy Research Talent & Knowledge Creation 43 Buy Advanced Education 43 Buy Innovation & Commercialisation 43 Buy Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 43 Buy Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 43		12.31 +0.105
2012	Buy Research Talent & Knowledge Creation 43 Buy Advanced Education 43 Buy Innovation & Commercialisation 43 Buy Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 43 Buy Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 43 Build Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 43 Build Land Power 43 Build Air Power 43 Build Resource Infrastructure 43 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 43		12.40 +0.089
2013	Build Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 44 Build Land Power 44 Build Air Power 44 Build Resource Infrastructure 44 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 44		12.46 +0.061
2014	Build Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 44 Build Land Power 44 Build Air Power 44 Build Resource Infrastructure 44 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 44	Regional war spilloverTrade bloc rupture	12.23 −0.234
2015	Build Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 44 Build Land Power 44 Build Air Power 44 Build Resource Infrastructure 44 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 44		12.17 −0.055
2016	Build Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 38 Build Land Power 38 Build Air Power 38 Build Resource Infrastructure 38 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 38		12.10 −0.075
2017	Build Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 37 Build Digital & AI Competence 37 Build Transport Infrastructure 37 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 37 Build Population Health 37		12.15 +0.051
2018	Build Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 42 Build Digital & AI Competence 42 Build Transport Infrastructure 42 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 42 Build Population Health 42		12.21 +0.062
2019	Build Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 42 Build Digital & AI Competence 42 Build Transport Infrastructure 42 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 42 Build Population Health 42		12.27 +0.064
2020	Build Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 42 Build Digital & AI Competence 42 Build Transport Infrastructure 42 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 42 Build Population Health 42	Severe pandemic	11.88 −0.394
2021	Build Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 42 Build Digital & AI Competence 42 Build Transport Infrastructure 42 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 42 Build Population Health 42		11.96 +0.077
2022	Build Land Power 39 Build Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 39 Build Air Power 39 Build Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 39 Build Resource Infrastructure 39	Regional war spilloverTrade bloc rupture	11.49 −0.465
2023	Build Land Power 39 Build Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 39 Build Air Power 19		11.32 −0.175
2024	Build Land Power 32 Build Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 32 Build Air Power 19		11.12 −0.192
2025	Build Land Power 32 Build Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 32 Build Air Power 32 Build Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 32 Build Resource Infrastructure 32		11.13 +0.002
2026	Build Land Power 35 Build Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 35 Build Air Power 35 Build Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 35 Build Resource Infrastructure 1		11.13 +0.002

Credits

What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.

Tiers by round

Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.

Domain	1996					2001					2006					2011					2016					2021					2026
Critical Technology	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Strategic Infrastructure	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
National Security	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	2	1
Human Capital	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	4	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Information & Influence	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	6
Governance & Integrity	13	13	13	13	11	9	7	5	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Financial Strength	18	17	15	11	11	11	10	8	7	6	6	6	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	10	10	10	10	10
Production & Innovation	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	6	5	4	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
Trade & Investment	8	8	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	8	8	9	9	10	10	10	10	11	11	12	13	14	14	14

Probes

What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.

Probe	Index	Score sum	Tier 1
Hold instead of the method	−3.216	−249.1	−4.00
No shocks	+2.466	+169.2	+1.00
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0	0.00
Without the 1st largest decision	+0.003	+0.2	0.00
Without the 2nd largest decision	+0.002	+0.2	0.00
Without the 3rd largest decision	−0.014	−0.8	0.00
Without the 4th largest decision	−0.019	−1.6	0.00
Without the 5th largest decision	+0.004	+0.3	0.00
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.632	+43.5	0.00
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.522	+35.9	0.00
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.424	+28.7	0.00

Every group over the simulation

Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	1996	2026	Change	Invested	Events	Graph
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	6.27	19.59	+13.32	+17.06	−2.58	+0.03
Population Health	Human Capital	8.48	19.79	+11.31	+12.12	−1.29	+0.49
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	10.29	19.98	+9.69	+16.16	−0.95	+0.13
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	4.74	14.43	+9.69	+14.00	−4.37	+0.05
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	10.69	19.98	+9.29	+11.50	−1.76	+0.48
Health System Capability	Human Capital	11.03	18.87	+7.84	+9.24	−1.18	+0.67
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.03	16.85	+6.82	+8.26	−1.43	−0.01
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	9.24	16.06	+6.82	+8.08	−1.06	−0.19
Air Power	National Security	12.40	18.81	+6.41	+7.80	−1.35	−0.04
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	10.79	17.19	+6.40	+8.81	−3.03	+0.63
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.98	19.33	+6.35	+7.45	−2.18	+1.08
Land Power	National Security	13.60	19.46	+5.86	+7.18	−1.35	+0.03
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.62	18.46	+5.84	+9.12	−1.93	+0.17
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	8.86	14.04	+5.18	+9.13	−3.81	−0.14
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	14.57	19.22	+4.65	+9.03	−1.92	−0.56
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	14.78	19.17	+4.39	+5.48	−1.08	+1.02
Advanced Education	Human Capital	15.01	19.37	+4.36	+10.63	−0.83	+0.25
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	15.83	18.36	+2.53	0.00	−1.53	+4.06
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	8.40	9.33	+0.93	+2.42	−1.55	+0.06
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	12.26	12.87	+0.61	0.00	−1.04	+1.65
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	8.69	9.11	+0.42	+3.81	−3.32	−0.07
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	9.88	10.09	+0.21	0.00	−2.11	+2.31
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.30	12.41	+0.11	0.00	−1.83	+1.95
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	20.00	20.00	0.00	+4.51	−1.96	−0.10
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	12.85	12.73	−0.12	0.00	−1.62	+1.49
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.24	12.01	−0.23	0.00	−1.60	+1.37
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	17.19	16.66	−0.53	0.00	−1.50	+0.96
Foundational Education	Human Capital	14.19	13.64	−0.55	0.00	−1.33	+0.78
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	9.13	8.50	−0.63	+3.70	−4.43	+0.10
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	11.00	10.12	−0.88	0.00	−2.11	+1.24
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	13.33	12.27	−1.06	0.00	−1.58	+0.52
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	12.80	11.73	−1.07	0.00	−1.03	−0.04
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	10.77	9.56	−1.21	0.00	−1.06	−0.16
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	20.00	18.57	−1.43	0.00	−1.42	−0.01
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	20.00	18.52	−1.48	0.00	−1.77	+0.28
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	12.42	10.92	−1.50	0.00	−2.02	+0.53
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	8.47	6.94	−1.53	0.00	−1.48	−0.04
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	8.44	6.89	−1.55	0.00	−1.48	−0.07
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	8.89	7.34	−1.55	0.00	−1.47	−0.08
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	13.21	11.64	−1.57	0.00	−2.39	+0.82
Space Operations	National Security	18.94	17.36	−1.58	0.00	−1.45	−0.13
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	14.53	12.93	−1.60	0.00	−1.57	−0.04
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.06	9.31	−1.75	0.00	−1.62	−0.13
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	8.34	6.49	−1.85	0.00	−2.05	+0.20
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	14.58	12.72	−1.86	0.00	−2.02	+0.16
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.28	8.33	−1.95	0.00	−1.78	−0.16
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	13.83	11.87	−1.96	0.00	−2.04	+0.08
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	11.61	9.59	−2.02	0.00	−2.05	+0.04
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	8.61	6.55	−2.06	0.00	−2.18	+0.12
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	9.02	6.90	−2.12	0.00	−2.14	+0.02
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	11.80	9.64	−2.16	0.00	−2.50	+0.34
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	10.48	8.18	−2.30	0.00	−2.13	−0.18
Maritime Power	National Security	13.43	11.05	−2.38	0.00	−2.43	+0.04
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	9.74	7.25	−2.49	0.00	−2.95	+0.46
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	11.92	9.33	−2.59	0.00	−2.60	+0.01
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	9.50	6.88	−2.62	0.00	−2.65	+0.02
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	12.56	9.90	−2.66	0.00	−3.00	+0.35
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	8.61	5.91	−2.70	0.00	−2.68	−0.02
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	10.51	7.71	−2.80	0.00	−3.62	+0.82
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	8.75	5.71	−3.04	0.00	−3.15	+0.11
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	7.64	4.57	−3.07	0.00	−2.88	−0.18
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	11.90	8.73	−3.17	0.00	−3.56	+0.39
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	9.02	5.85	−3.17	0.00	−3.20	+0.03
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	11.43	8.20	−3.23	0.00	−2.59	−0.64
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	13.33	10.09	−3.24	0.00	−3.05	−0.19
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	8.57	5.15	−3.42	0.00	−3.16	−0.26
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	7.59	4.10	−3.49	0.00	−3.63	+0.13
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	9.02	5.47	−3.55	0.00	−3.49	−0.07
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	9.27	5.27	−4.00	0.00	−4.80	+0.79
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	9.34	4.65	−4.69	0.00	−4.41	−0.28
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	9.93	5.24	−4.69	0.00	−4.38	−0.31
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	11.70	6.94	−4.76	0.00	−5.24	+0.48
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	9.07	4.26	−4.81	0.00	−4.42	−0.39

Seed 24 of experiment cycle-002.e4-rus. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.