E4 · cycle-002.e4-twn

Taiwan, scripted, 30 years from 1996

30 simulations of 30 rounds from the 1996 position. Taiwan decides by the scripted method; scripted events: Global funding seizure in year 1, Core disaster in year 3, Market access opening in year 6, Severe pandemic in year 7, Global funding seizure in year 12, Market access opening in year 14, Trade bloc rupture in year 22, Severe pandemic in year 24.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seeds 1–30 · elasticity sampled within each bracket

The same configuration in other cycles: cycle 3.

Every simulation · Compare with another experiment · More experiments like this

Not a forecast

Simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values, to compare methods and test the model. Other nations stay at their 2026 ratings throughout.

Outcome across simulations

The median at 2026, with the 10th to the 90th percentile of the 30 simulations under it.

Capability index: 14.99 (+0.13); From 14.85; 14.98 to 14.99
Rank by index: 12; From 13; 12 to 12
Domains at Tier 1: 5; From 2; 5 to 5
Tier rank: 3; From 11; 3 to 3

Capability index by round

Rank by index, by round

Every objective at the position and at the horizon
Objective	1996	10th percentile	Median	90th percentile	Better
Capability indexprimary	14.85	14.98	14.99	14.99	higher
Rank by index	13	12	12	12	lower
Tier rank	11	3	3	3	lower
Domains at Tier 1	2	5	5	5	higher
Score sum	1076.6	1088.5	1088.9	1089.3	higher
Goal-weighted score	1076.6	1088.5	1088.9	1089.3	higher
Resilient score	1076.6	1088.9 (mean score sum over the simulations)			higher

The capability index is the mean of the three dimensions, each the mean of its domains, each the mean of its groups. Tiers are Pareto layers within each domain; the tier rank orders nations by domains held at Tier 1, then Tier 2, and so on. The goal-weighted score is the score sum unless the experiment sets a goal. The primary objective is the one the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it.

Credits

What each round’s credits went on in the median simulation. Across all simulations, build took 86 per cent, buy took 0 per cent, partner took 14 per cent of the 2,280 credits a simulation spent on actions.

Against history

Started from a reconstructed 1996 position and played along the pathway and shocks Taiwan actually had, then scored against the 2026 ratings. The position is an estimate, so part of any error is the reconstruction's. The calibration summary across all fifty nations is on the cycle's page under Loop.

Index 1996: 14.85; reconstructed
Observed 2026: 14.03; the Index's rating
Simulated 2026: 14.99; 14.96 to 15.01
Skill against persistence: −0.38; group error 1.35 against 0.98 if nothing changed

Domain	1996	Observed	Simulated	Bias	Direction
Critical Technology	12.91	12.79	14.33 14.3–14.4	+1.55	wrong
Strategic Infrastructure	15.19	14.46	15.25 15.2–15.3	+0.80	wrong
National Security	12.22	11.92	11.70 11.7–11.7	−0.22	right
Human Capital	16.25	15.41	16.06 16.0–16.1	+0.66	wrong
Information & Influence	11.95	10.97	11.17 11.2–11.2	+0.20	right
Governance & Integrity	15.98	15.19	15.90 15.9–15.9	+0.71	wrong
Financial Strength	16.56	14.86	15.98 15.9–16.0	+1.12	right
Production & Innovation	16.72	15.48	16.84 16.8–16.9	+1.37	wrong
Trade & Investment	15.88	15.21	17.65 17.6–17.7	+2.44	wrong

The history it was played under: shocks and events

1997 · S02 × 0.4 The Asian financial crisis hit regional markets and raised non-performing loans, but Taiwan's large reserves and current-account strength limited the damage.
1999 · S07 × 0.5 The Chi-Chi earthquake of 21 September 1999 damaged central Taiwan's infrastructure and disrupted some manufacturing, including semiconductor fabs.
2002 · S12 × 0.4 Taiwan's WTO accession as Chinese Taipei expanded market access and locked in trade rules, supporting export growth.
2003 · S10 × 0.3 The SARS outbreak affected Taiwan, but its public health system and aggressive containment prevented a severe sustained crisis.
2008 · S02 × 0.5 The global financial crisis caused a sharp export collapse, though Taiwan's banking sector and central bank managed the shock without systemic failure.
2010 · S12 × 0.3 The Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement with China improved cross-Strait tariff access and encouraged trade in services and early-harvest goods.
2018 · S01 × 0.4 The US-China trade war and technology restrictions began to divide supply chains, forcing Taiwan firms to adapt and accelerating relocation of some production.
2020 · S10 × 0.4 The COVID-19 pandemic caused global demand and logistics disruption, but Taiwan's rapid border controls, mask production and digital response limited domestic health impact.

The pathway: what it prioritised, period by period

1997–2001 · build · 5% each Taiwan consolidated its semiconductor and export upgrading while managing the Asian financial crisis and pushing for WTO accession. (Semiconductors & Advanced Computing, Export Capability & Sophistication, Financial Stability & Crisis Management, Innovation & Commercialisation, Trade Policy & Market Access)
2002–2007 · build · 5% each The Chen Shui-bian administration promoted the 'Two Trillion, Twin Stars' semiconductor and display industries and expanded science parks and biotech. (Semiconductors & Advanced Computing, Advanced Manufacturing, Biotechnology & Health Technologies, Innovation & Commercialisation, Structural Transformation & Complexity)
2008–2015 · partner · 2% each The Ma Ying-jeou administration pursued cross-Strait economic opening through ECFA and sought closer integration into regional value chains. (Trade Policy & Market Access, Digital & Services Trade, Investment Attraction & Projection, Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies, Global Value Chain Position)
2016–2019 · build · 2% each Tsai Ing-wen's '5+2' innovative industries programme advanced green energy, biotech, smart machinery, defence aerospace and resilience. (Energy Technologies, Biotechnology & Health Technologies, Advanced Materials & Manufacturing, Robotics & Autonomous Systems, National Resilience & Crisis Management)
2020–2023 · build · 5% each Taiwan used its semiconductor 'silicon shield' and digital infrastructure while mounting a highly effective COVID-19 pandemic response. (Semiconductors & Advanced Computing, Artificial Intelligence, Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies, Population Health, Health System Capability)
2024–2026 · build · 5% each Rising cross-Strait military pressure accelerated defence modernisation, AI capability and energy security alongside advanced semiconductor protection. (Artificial Intelligence, Semiconductors & Advanced Computing, Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations, Air Power, Energy Technologies)

Reconstruction notes (deepseek-v4-pro): The largest uncertainty is Taiwan's unresolved cross-Strait sovereignty and war risk, which is imperfectly captured by the event library's generic shocks. Taiwan's de facto security dependence on the United States and its informal diplomatic networks are hard to score on formal state-capacity scales, making information and influence and national security estimates softer than the economic and human capital estimates. Semiconductor and AI trajectories after 2020 are especially volatile, so late-period policy and event mappings should be treated as provisional.

Report

Written from the simulation record by the loop's narrator. Every figure names the query it came from, in square brackets.

Batch cycle-002. Model 0.1.0, graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.0. 30 simulations, seeds 1 to 30; probes on 10. Every figure is a distribution over simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values; it shows what the model implies under these settings, not what will happen. Other nations are frozen at their 2026 ratings. No reconstructed historical data is used in this experiment.

Headline

Taiwan played 30 rounds from 1996 under the scripted method, with scripted events, 30 times. Its capability index moved from 14.85 to a median of 14.99 (+0.14), with 90 per cent of simulations between 14.98 and 14.99 [experiment_objectives].

Starting position

In 1996 the nation ranks 13 on the index against the frozen field, holds 2 of nine domains at Tier 1 and has a tier rank of 11. Its base income is 708 credits a year, calibrated so that its 2026 position is affordable with headroom for investment.

What was decided

A simulation spent a median of 2,280 credits on moves. The five groups that took most were Semiconductors & Advanced Computing (build, 521 credits, 22.8 per cent); Innovation & Commercialisation (build, 276 credits, 12.1 per cent); Artificial Intelligence (build, 198 credits, 8.7 per cent); Advanced Manufacturing (build, 177 credits, 7.8 per cent); Trade Policy & Market Access (build, 175 credits, 7.7 per cent) [experiment_decisions_by_group]. By mode: build 86 per cent, partner 14 per cent [experiment_decisions_by_group]. Concentration of spending (HHI) had a median of 0.115, and the most repeated action appeared in 57 per cent of rounds.

The leading domain by period: rounds 1 to 5, Trade & Investment; rounds 6 to 10, Critical Technology; rounds 11 to 15, Trade & Investment; rounds 16 to 20, Trade & Investment; rounds 21 to 25, Critical Technology; rounds 26 to 30, Critical Technology [experiment_spend_by_period].

What the world did

A median simulation saw 6 shocks and 2 upside events. The most damaging per firing were S07 (30 firings in 30 simulations, −13.5 points each); S01 (30 firings in 30 simulations, −12.0 points each); S10 (60 firings in 30 simulations, −11.4 points each) [experiment_shocks]. Upside events fired 60 times across all simulations [experiment_shocks].

The groups that lost most to shocks, per simulation: Trade Facilitation & Logistics −1.84; Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance −1.79; Labour & Employment −1.55; Financial System Depth & Access −1.48 [experiment_shock_damage_by_group].

The edges that carried most change through the graph, per simulation: Export Capability & Sophistication to Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power (+0.28 points); Artificial Intelligence to Robotics & Autonomous Systems (+0.32 points); Investment Attraction & Projection to Resource Infrastructure (+0.21 points) [experiment_propagation_by_edge].

Where it ended

At 2026 the median rank is 12 (5th to 95th percentile 12 to 12), the median count of Tier 1 domains 5 (5 to 5) and the median tier rank 3; the resilient score, the mean score sum over simulations, is 1,089 [experiment_objectives].

Tier 1 probability changed most in: critical technology (0 to 100 per cent of simulations); financial strength (0 to 100 per cent of simulations); human capital (100 to 0 per cent of simulations); strategic infrastructure (0 to 100 per cent of simulations); trade and investment (0 to 100 per cent of simulations) [experiment_tiers_by_round].

Why

Without shocks the index ends +0.883 higher on average, so the shocks cost about 0.883 index points [experiment_probe_attribution].

Holding instead of following this method changes the index by −0.755: that is the method's worth against doing nothing [experiment_probe_attribution].

Removing any single one of the five largest actions changes the index by between +0.005 and +0.007, for example 1997 build Semiconductors & Advanced Computing (35 credits) [experiment_probe_attribution]. The largest actions by credits come late, when income is highest, and are rarely the most valuable.

Removing the largest shock of a simulation raises the index by +0.217 on average [experiment_probe_attribution].

The replay probe reproduces the simulations exactly (index change 0.000000), so the attributions are clean [experiment_probe_attribution].

Surprises

saturation_high (warn): 100% of simulations end with a group at 20 that did not start there (median 1 groups).

retired_words (warn): e4-twn/report.md: 'simulations' 1 time(s), first near line 39; use 'simulations'.

The simulation furthest from the median (seed 15) ends −0.01 from it, with 6 shocks and 2 upside events [experiment_outlier_simulations].

Comparison

This is the baseline (hold) experiment, or there is none for this nation in the batch.

Against history: from a reconstructed index of 14.85 the model ends at 14.99, where the 2026 ratings put it at 14.03. Group scores miss by 1.35 points on average, against 0.98 for assuming nothing changed (skill −0.38); the change in each domain has the right sign in 33 per cent of domains. Furthest below history: national security (−0.22); furthest above: trade and investment (+2.44) [experiment_against_history]. The starting position is reconstructed, so part of the error is the reconstruction's.

What each decision and shock was worth

Counterfactual probes on the first 10 seeds: the same simulations with one thing changed, paired seed by seed. A removed decision or shock is taken out and the other decisions replayed unchanged, so the difference is that item's worth.

Probe	Index	Score sum	Tier 1	For example
Hold instead of the method	−0.755	−54.2	−4.00
No shocks	+0.883	+60.0	+2.00
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0	0.00
Without the 1st largest decision	+0.007	+0.6	0.00	1997 build Semiconductors & Advanced Computing (35 credits)
Without the 2nd largest decision	+0.005	+0.5	0.00	1997 build Export Capability & Sophistication (35 credits)
Without the 3rd largest decision	+0.005	+0.5	0.00	1997 build Financial Stability & Crisis Management (35 credits)
Without the 4th largest decision	+0.005	+0.5	0.00	1997 build Innovation & Commercialisation (35 credits)
Without the 5th largest decision	+0.005	+0.5	0.00	1997 build Trade Policy & Market Access (35 credits)
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.217	+15.5	+1.00	1999 S07 (-13.5 points)
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.174	+11.7	+1.00	2020 S10 (-12.7 points)
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.202	+13.0	+1.00	2018 S01 (-12.0 points)

Simulations

Three simulations told round by round, each on its own page: the one nearest the median index at the horizon, and those nearest the 10th and the 90th percentile. Every one of the 30 is listed with its outcome on the simulations page.

All 30 simulations

Events

How often each shock and upside event began across the simulations. Shocks come from the ten downside scenarios and upside events from the ten upside ones, at their yearly likelihood.

Event	Kind	Simulations	Mean round	Points
Trade bloc rupture S01	Shock	100 per cent	22.0	−12.0
Global funding seizure S02	Shock	100 per cent	6.5	−5.8
Core disaster S07	Shock	100 per cent	3.0	−13.5
Severe pandemic S10	Shock	100 per cent	15.5	−11.4
Market access opening S12	Upside	100 per cent	10.0	+13.9

Groups across simulations

Every capability group: its position, and its median and spread at the horizon across the simulations, with what the method spent on it.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	1996	2026	Change	Levels invested	Credits
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	13.06	19.24 19.21 to 19.26	+6.18	6.52	198
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	14.13	19.23 19.21 to 19.25	+5.10	9.13	285
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	12.10	15.71 15.65 to 15.76	+3.61	4.56	114
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	15.92	19.24 19.23 to 19.25	+3.32	5.47	175
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	15.22	18.38 18.27 to 18.44	+3.16	3.72	82
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	16.29	19.41 19.41 to 19.42	+3.12	3.61	90
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	15.39	18.50 18.50 to 18.51	+3.11	3.82	68
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	16.90	19.72 19.70 to 19.73	+2.82	3.90	177
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	17.20	19.67 19.63 to 19.69	+2.47	4.79	276
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	17.57	20.00 20.00 to 20.00	+2.43	4.70	521
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	17.11	19.46 19.44 to 19.47	+2.35	3.98	175
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	16.65	18.95 18.93 to 18.96	+2.30	2.79	68
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	10.58	11.93 11.92 to 11.94	+1.35	2.02	42
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	15.61	15.95 15.95 to 15.96	+0.34	0.00	0
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	15.19	15.47 15.47 to 15.48	+0.28	0.00	0
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	14.63	14.69 14.65 to 14.72	+0.06	0.00	0
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.38	11.41 11.32 to 11.46	+0.03	0.00	0
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	17.14	17.11 17.08 to 17.11	−0.03	0.00	0
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	13.53	13.47 13.33 to 13.54	−0.06	0.00	0
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	15.92	15.85 15.85 to 15.85	−0.07	0.00	0
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	15.50	15.42 15.42 to 15.43	−0.08	0.00	0
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	15.06	14.98 14.98 to 14.98	−0.08	0.00	0
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	17.01	16.93 16.89 to 16.96	−0.08	0.00	0
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	18.25	18.16 18.16 to 18.17	−0.09	0.00	0
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	16.90	16.81 16.80 to 16.82	−0.09	0.00	0
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.15	16.04 15.98 to 16.10	−0.11	0.00	0
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	16.12	16.01 16.00 to 16.02	−0.11	0.00	0
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	14.98	14.84 14.84 to 14.85	−0.14	0.00	0
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	15.04	14.89 14.86 to 14.93	−0.15	0.00	0
Advanced Education	Human Capital	15.71	15.56 15.54 to 15.57	−0.15	0.00	0
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	16.80	16.64 16.63 to 16.65	−0.16	0.00	0
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	15.57	15.41 15.40 to 15.43	−0.16	0.00	0
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	13.28	13.10 13.05 to 13.14	−0.18	0.00	0
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	17.32	17.04 17.00 to 17.11	−0.28	0.53	10
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	14.64	14.35 14.28 to 14.42	−0.29	0.00	0
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	0.36	0.00 0.00 to 0.00	−0.36	0.00	0
Population Health	Human Capital	16.53	16.15 16.12 to 16.16	−0.38	0.00	0
Foundational Education	Human Capital	16.34	15.95 15.92 to 15.96	−0.39	0.00	0
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	15.98	15.55 15.54 to 15.57	−0.43	0.00	0
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	15.98	15.54 15.49 to 15.57	−0.44	0.00	0
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	14.53	14.05 14.02 to 14.08	−0.48	0.00	0
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	17.29	16.78 16.75 to 16.81	−0.51	0.00	0
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	15.50	14.98 14.93 to 15.02	−0.52	0.00	0
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	13.85	13.31 13.29 to 13.32	−0.54	0.00	0
Maritime Power	National Security	13.43	12.89 12.88 to 12.90	−0.54	0.00	0
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	17.10	16.56 16.46 to 16.63	−0.54	0.00	0
Air Power	National Security	15.72	15.17 15.16 to 15.18	−0.55	0.00	0
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	8.18	7.62 7.61 to 7.62	−0.56	0.00	0
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	9.72	9.15 9.14 to 9.16	−0.57	0.00	0
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	12.25	11.68 11.66 to 11.70	−0.57	0.00	0
Land Power	National Security	13.60	13.02 13.00 to 13.04	−0.58	0.00	0
Space Operations	National Security	9.36	8.78 8.76 to 8.80	−0.58	0.00	0
Health System Capability	Human Capital	16.48	15.89 15.82 to 15.93	−0.59	0.00	0
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	11.30	10.69 10.68 to 10.71	−0.61	0.00	0
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	14.12	13.49 13.47 to 13.52	−0.63	0.00	0
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	14.60	13.96 13.96 to 13.96	−0.64	0.00	0
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	15.00	14.35 14.32 to 14.37	−0.65	0.00	0
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	14.42	13.75 13.68 to 13.80	−0.67	0.00	0
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	17.73	17.04 17.00 to 17.08	−0.69	0.00	0
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	16.59	15.87 15.77 to 15.93	−0.72	0.00	0
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	10.60	9.84 9.81 to 9.85	−0.76	0.00	0
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	15.42	14.66 14.62 to 14.70	−0.76	0.00	0
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	11.95	11.16 11.14 to 11.19	−0.79	0.00	0
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.08	15.25 15.22 to 15.34	−0.83	0.00	0
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	10.35	9.45 9.44 to 9.46	−0.90	0.00	0
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	12.91	11.93 11.91 to 11.94	−0.98	0.00	0
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	15.31	14.33 14.30 to 14.35	−0.98	0.00	0
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	16.80	15.79 15.78 to 15.80	−1.01	0.00	0
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	15.41	14.37 14.36 to 14.38	−1.04	0.00	0
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	16.18	14.95 14.94 to 14.97	−1.23	0.00	0
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	17.27	16.02 15.99 to 16.06	−1.25	0.00	0
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	15.57	14.26 14.25 to 14.26	−1.31	0.00	0
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	16.93	15.20 15.18 to 15.24	−1.73	0.00	0

Checks

The automated checks run on this experiment before anything was written about it. A warning is a candidate finding for the improvement loop.

passcredits_conservedlargest gap between credits in and credits accounted for: 5.7e-14
passscores_in_boundsscores range 0.000 to 20.000
passno_nans0 missing values in the trajectory and objectives
passprobe_replay_reproducesthe recorded moves played back reproduce the simulation to within 0.0e+00 points (10 simulations)
passledger_balancesthe edge ledger sums to the propagated change to within 9.2e-07 points
passmove_without_shocklargest one-year move in a group with no shock landing: 1.76 points; 0% of simulations have one above 3
passtier_jumplargest gain in one domain within five years: 2 tiers (0 simulations above 2)
passall_tier1_from_outside_top10starting rank 13; 0 simulations reach Tier 1 in all nine domains
warnsaturation_high100% of simulations end with a group at 20 that did not start there (median 1 groups)
passsaturation_low13% of simulations end with a group at 0 that did not start there (median 0 groups)
passspend_concentrationmedian concentration of spending across groups (HHI) 0.115; most funded group hard.critical_technology.semiconductors_and_advanced_computing
passsame_actionthe most repeated move (group and mode) appears in a median 57% of rounds

Settings and versions

Experiment cycle-002.e4-twn. Every simulation records the model, graph and parameter versions, the scenario, the method and its seed, so it can be reproduced exactly.

Nation: Taiwan (TWN)
Position: A reconstructed 1996 position, aligned to the Index's scale
Method: Scripted. Actions fixed in advance by the experiment: for a backcast, the nation's historical pathway.
Scenario: Scripted events: Global funding seizure in year 1, Core disaster in year 3, Market access opening in year 6, Severe pandemic in year 7, Global funding seizure in year 12, Market access opening in year 14, Trade bloc rupture in year 22, Severe pandemic in year 24
Objective: Capability index, the primary objective the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it
Horizon: 30 rounds, 1996 to 2026
Simulations: 30 seeds, 1 to 30. Every method in the batch faces the same draws for the same seed.
Graph elasticities: Drawn for each simulation, uniformly within each edge’s bracket
Income: Base credits 707.8 a round, moving with the economic groups
Versions: Model 0.1.0, Capability Dependency Graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.0
Batch: Backcast 1996-2026 (cycle-002), cycle 2 of the improvement loop
Runtime: 4.2 seconds in all; 1054 microseconds a round

Not a forecast: Every figure is a distribution over the simulations of a structural model, reported to compare methods and test the model. None is a prediction of what a nation will do or become.
Structural parameters: Costs, decay, vulnerability and credits are structural seed values with low or medium confidence, set by domain with single-group exceptions. Five groups have no defensible value in a single-nation model and are flagged in the parameter tables.
Other nations are frozen: One nation is simulated at a time. Every other nation stays at its 2026 rating, so rank and tiers are measured against a still field; where the simulated nation rises past others their own tiers are not re-sorted.
Starting depth and mode are defaults: The position is the National Capability Index ratings. How institutionalised each capability is, and how much was built, bought or partnered, have no data behind them yet and start from structural defaults.
Credits are calibrated, not measured: Each nation’s income is set so that its position is affordable with headroom that rises with its fiscal capacity. It is not yet fiscal capacity as a share of GDP.