Simulation 2
Taiwan, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 2: median simulation of the experiment's 30. Capability index 14.85 at the 1996 position, 14.99 in 2026; 95 actions over 30 rounds and 6 shocks.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 2
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 8 (a poor simulation (10th percentile)), 3 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 1996 position to 2026.
- Capability index
- 14.99 (+0.13)
- From 14.85
- Rank by index
- 12
- From 13
- Domains at Tier 1
- 5
- From 2
- Events
- 6 shocks
- 2 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1997 |
| Global funding seizure | 14.81 −0.037 |
| 1998 |
| 14.90 +0.083 | |
| 1999 |
| Core disaster | 14.79 −0.107 |
| 2000 |
| 14.85 +0.060 | |
| 2001 |
| 14.88 +0.028 | |
| 2002 |
| Market access opening | 14.96 +0.084 |
| 2003 |
| Severe pandemic | 14.93 −0.038 |
| 2004 |
| 15.03 +0.102 | |
| 2005 |
| 15.05 +0.027 | |
| 2006 |
| 15.07 +0.014 | |
| 2007 |
| 15.07 +0.005 | |
| 2008 |
| Global funding seizure | 15.00 −0.076 |
| 2009 |
| 15.03 +0.030 | |
| 2010 |
| Market access opening | 15.11 +0.081 |
| 2011 |
| 15.19 +0.085 | |
| 2012 |
| 15.28 +0.082 | |
| 2013 |
| 15.29 +0.016 | |
| 2014 |
| 15.30 +0.007 | |
| 2015 |
| 15.30 +0.005 | |
| 2016 |
| 15.31 +0.006 | |
| 2017 |
| 15.32 +0.008 | |
| 2018 |
| Trade bloc rupture | 15.27 −0.048 |
| 2019 | No actions | 15.18 −0.095 | |
| 2020 | No actions | Severe pandemic | 14.91 −0.263 |
| 2021 |
| 14.92 +0.005 | |
| 2022 |
| 14.93 +0.011 | |
| 2023 |
| 14.95 +0.019 | |
| 2024 |
| 14.96 +0.015 | |
| 2025 |
| 14.97 +0.013 | |
| 2026 |
| 14.99 +0.012 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 1996 | 2001 | 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | 2021 | 2026 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| National Security | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Human Capital | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Information & Influence | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Governance & Integrity | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Financial Strength | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Production & Innovation | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Trade & Investment | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds, this one among them: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −0.755 | −54.2 | −4.00 |
| No shocks | +0.883 | +60.0 | +2.00 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | +0.007 | +0.6 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | +0.005 | +0.5 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | +0.005 | +0.5 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | +0.005 | +0.5 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | +0.005 | +0.5 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.217 | +15.5 | +1.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.174 | +11.7 | +1.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.202 | +13.0 | +1.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 1996 | 2026 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 13.06 | 19.23 | +6.17 | +6.52 | −0.11 | −0.44 | +0.20 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 14.13 | 19.24 | +5.11 | +9.13 | −0.10 | −0.34 | −0.09 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 12.10 | 15.73 | +3.63 | +4.59 | −0.13 | −0.82 | −0.01 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 15.92 | 19.23 | +3.31 | +5.47 | −0.10 | −0.78 | +0.08 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 15.22 | 18.38 | +3.16 | +3.73 | −0.15 | −0.42 | 0.00 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 16.29 | 19.42 | +3.13 | +3.61 | −0.11 | −0.27 | −0.01 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 15.39 | 18.50 | +3.11 | +3.82 | −0.10 | −0.57 | −0.04 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.90 | 19.72 | +2.82 | +3.90 | −0.08 | −0.09 | +0.01 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 17.20 | 19.67 | +2.47 | +4.79 | −0.10 | −0.42 | +0.08 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 17.57 | 20.00 | +2.43 | +4.69 | −0.17 | −0.46 | +0.14 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 17.11 | 19.46 | +2.35 | +3.98 | −0.06 | −0.87 | −0.06 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 16.65 | 18.96 | +2.31 | +2.80 | −0.10 | −0.47 | +0.07 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 10.58 | 11.92 | +1.34 | +2.02 | −0.10 | −0.56 | −0.03 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 15.61 | 15.96 | +0.35 | 0.00 | −0.04 | +0.39 | −0.01 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 15.19 | 15.47 | +0.28 | 0.00 | −0.02 | +0.30 | 0.00 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.38 | 11.44 | +0.06 | 0.00 | −0.04 | −0.15 | +0.27 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.63 | 14.67 | +0.04 | 0.00 | −0.06 | +0.11 | −0.01 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 13.53 | 13.49 | −0.04 | 0.00 | −0.12 | −0.43 | +0.52 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 17.14 | 17.08 | −0.06 | 0.00 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.06 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 15.92 | 15.85 | −0.07 | 0.00 | −0.02 | −0.05 | 0.00 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 16.90 | 16.82 | −0.08 | 0.00 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.02 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 15.50 | 15.42 | −0.08 | 0.00 | −0.02 | −0.06 | 0.00 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 15.06 | 14.98 | −0.08 | 0.00 | −0.02 | −0.06 | +0.01 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 17.01 | 16.93 | −0.08 | 0.00 | −0.10 | −0.11 | +0.14 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 18.25 | 18.16 | −0.09 | 0.00 | −0.05 | −0.04 | 0.00 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 16.12 | 16.01 | −0.11 | 0.00 | −0.02 | −0.05 | −0.03 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 14.98 | 14.86 | −0.12 | 0.00 | −0.04 | −0.07 | −0.02 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.04 | 14.90 | −0.14 | 0.00 | −0.06 | −0.13 | +0.04 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 16.80 | 16.64 | −0.16 | 0.00 | −0.04 | −0.05 | −0.06 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 15.71 | 15.55 | −0.16 | 0.00 | −0.04 | −0.06 | −0.06 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.15 | 15.98 | −0.17 | 0.00 | −0.06 | +0.12 | −0.23 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 15.57 | 15.40 | −0.17 | 0.00 | −0.04 | −0.06 | −0.06 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.28 | 13.08 | −0.20 | 0.00 | −0.05 | −0.14 | −0.01 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 17.32 | 17.03 | −0.29 | +0.53 | −0.09 | −0.92 | +0.19 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 0.36 | 0.00 | −0.36 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.50 | 0.00 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 14.64 | 14.27 | −0.37 | 0.00 | −0.10 | −0.40 | +0.13 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 16.34 | 15.95 | −0.39 | 0.00 | −0.04 | −0.28 | −0.07 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 16.53 | 16.14 | −0.39 | 0.00 | −0.03 | −0.28 | −0.08 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.98 | 15.57 | −0.41 | 0.00 | −0.06 | −0.23 | −0.12 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 15.98 | 15.54 | −0.44 | 0.00 | −0.02 | −0.34 | −0.08 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 14.53 | 14.04 | −0.49 | 0.00 | −0.10 | −0.40 | +0.01 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 17.29 | 16.76 | −0.53 | 0.00 | −0.09 | −0.51 | +0.07 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 13.85 | 13.32 | −0.53 | 0.00 | −0.10 | −0.41 | −0.03 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 13.43 | 12.90 | −0.53 | 0.00 | −0.09 | −0.41 | −0.03 |
| Air Power | National Security | 15.72 | 15.17 | −0.55 | 0.00 | −0.11 | −0.40 | −0.04 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 8.18 | 7.62 | −0.56 | 0.00 | −0.07 | −0.49 | −0.01 |
| Land Power | National Security | 13.60 | 13.04 | −0.56 | 0.00 | −0.09 | −0.41 | −0.06 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 9.36 | 8.79 | −0.57 | 0.00 | −0.06 | −0.44 | −0.07 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 9.72 | 9.14 | −0.58 | 0.00 | −0.08 | −0.48 | −0.03 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.50 | 14.92 | −0.58 | 0.00 | −0.06 | −0.34 | −0.18 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 12.25 | 11.67 | −0.58 | 0.00 | −0.08 | −0.42 | −0.08 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 17.10 | 16.51 | −0.59 | 0.00 | −0.06 | −0.76 | +0.23 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 16.48 | 15.88 | −0.60 | 0.00 | −0.04 | −0.51 | −0.05 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 11.30 | 10.68 | −0.62 | 0.00 | −0.06 | −0.60 | +0.03 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 15.00 | 14.37 | −0.63 | 0.00 | −0.13 | −0.60 | +0.10 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 14.60 | 13.96 | −0.64 | 0.00 | −0.08 | −0.56 | 0.00 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 14.12 | 13.47 | −0.65 | 0.00 | −0.12 | −0.43 | −0.10 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 14.42 | 13.77 | −0.65 | 0.00 | −0.10 | −0.41 | −0.15 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 16.59 | 15.93 | −0.66 | 0.00 | −0.08 | −0.92 | +0.35 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 17.73 | 17.07 | −0.66 | 0.00 | −0.09 | −0.50 | −0.07 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.08 | 15.34 | −0.74 | 0.00 | −0.06 | −0.50 | −0.18 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 15.42 | 14.67 | −0.75 | 0.00 | −0.08 | −0.76 | +0.09 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 10.60 | 9.83 | −0.77 | 0.00 | −0.06 | −0.60 | −0.11 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 11.95 | 11.15 | −0.80 | 0.00 | −0.06 | −0.59 | −0.15 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 10.35 | 9.46 | −0.89 | 0.00 | −0.05 | −0.81 | −0.03 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 12.91 | 11.94 | −0.97 | 0.00 | −0.07 | −0.95 | +0.04 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 15.31 | 14.32 | −0.99 | 0.00 | −0.08 | −0.95 | +0.04 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 16.80 | 15.78 | −1.02 | 0.00 | −0.09 | −0.93 | −0.01 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 15.41 | 14.36 | −1.05 | 0.00 | −0.05 | −1.03 | +0.03 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 16.18 | 14.96 | −1.22 | 0.00 | −0.08 | −1.09 | −0.05 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 17.27 | 16.02 | −1.25 | 0.00 | −0.06 | −1.17 | −0.02 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 15.57 | 14.26 | −1.31 | 0.00 | −0.05 | −1.26 | −0.01 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 16.93 | 15.20 | −1.73 | 0.00 | −0.05 | −1.57 | −0.11 |
Seed 2 of experiment cycle-002.e4-twn. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.