A poor simulation (10th percentile) · cycle-002.e4-ven

Simulation 10

Venezuela, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 10: a poor simulation (10th percentile) of the experiment's 30. Capability index 10.19 at the 1996 position, 7.73 in 2026; 153 actions over 30 rounds and 7 shocks.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 10

The experiment · The other representative simulations: 27 (median simulation), 18 (a good simulation (90th percentile))

Outcome

From the 1996 position to 2026.

Capability index: 7.73 (−2.45); From 10.19
Rank by index: 71; From 45
Domains at Tier 1: 0; From 0
Events: 7 shocks; 0 upside events

Trajectory by domain

The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.

ShockUpside event

Capability index by round

Pathway, round by round

Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.

Round	Decision	Events	Index
1997	Partner Resource Infrastructure 6 Partner Energy Infrastructure 6 Partner Financial Infrastructure 6 Partner Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 6 Partner Trade Policy & Market Access 6		10.20 +0.009
1998	Partner Resource Infrastructure 6 Partner Energy Infrastructure 6 Partner Financial Infrastructure 6 Partner Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 6 Partner Trade Policy & Market Access 6		10.21 +0.019
1999	Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 15 Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 15 Build Social Infrastructure 15 Build Foundational Education 15 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 15	Core disaster	9.90 −0.309
2000	Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 15 Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 15 Build Social Infrastructure 15 Build Foundational Education 15 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 15		9.92 +0.018
2001	Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 14 Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 14 Build Social Infrastructure 14 Build Foundational Education 14 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 14		9.94 +0.017
2002	Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 14 Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 14 Build Social Infrastructure 14 Build Foundational Education 14 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 14	Legitimacy rupture	9.49 −0.447
2003	Build Foundational Education 14 Build Advanced Education 14 Build Population Health 14 Build Health System Capability 14 Build Social Infrastructure 14		9.52 +0.028
2004	Build Foundational Education 13 Build Advanced Education 13 Build Population Health 13 Build Health System Capability 13 Build Social Infrastructure 13		9.54 +0.020
2005	Build Foundational Education 13 Build Advanced Education 13 Build Population Health 13 Build Health System Capability 13 Build Social Infrastructure 13 Partner Resource Infrastructure 13 Partner Energy Infrastructure 13 Partner Alliances & Security Cooperation 13 Partner Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 13 Partner Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 5		9.60 +0.054
2006	Build Foundational Education 13 Build Advanced Education 13 Build Population Health 13 Build Health System Capability 13 Build Social Infrastructure 9		9.65 +0.053
2007	Build Foundational Education 13 Build Advanced Education 13 Build Population Health 13 Build Health System Capability 13 Build Social Infrastructure 7		9.68 +0.029
2008	Partner Resource Infrastructure 13 Partner Energy Infrastructure 13 Partner Alliances & Security Cooperation 13 Partner Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 13 Partner Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 7		9.73 +0.054
2009	Partner Resource Infrastructure 13 Partner Energy Infrastructure 13 Partner Alliances & Security Cooperation 13 Partner Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 13 Partner Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 5		9.80 +0.074
2010	Partner Resource Infrastructure 13 Partner Energy Infrastructure 13 Partner Alliances & Security Cooperation 13 Partner Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 13 Partner Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 1		9.87 +0.068
2011	Partner Resource Infrastructure 13 Partner Energy Infrastructure 13 Partner Alliances & Security Cooperation 13 Partner Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 11		9.93 +0.057
2012	Partner Resource Infrastructure 13 Partner Energy Infrastructure 13 Partner Alliances & Security Cooperation 13 Partner Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 8		9.98 +0.046
2013	Build National Resilience & Crisis Management 5 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 5 Build Internal Security & Order 5 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 5 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 5		10.01 +0.034
2014	Build National Resilience & Crisis Management 5 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 5 Build Internal Security & Order 5 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 5 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 5		10.03 +0.021
2015	Build National Resilience & Crisis Management 5 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 5 Build Internal Security & Order 5 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 5 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 5	Breadbasket failure	9.65 −0.379
2016	Build National Resilience & Crisis Management 5 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 5 Build Internal Security & Order 5 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 5 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 5		9.67 +0.017
2017	Build National Resilience & Crisis Management 5 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 5 Build Internal Security & Order 5 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 5 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 5	Global funding seizure	9.19 −0.476
2018	Build National Resilience & Crisis Management 5 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 5 Build Internal Security & Order 5 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 5 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 5		9.20 +0.003
2019	Buy Resource Infrastructure 4 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 4 Buy Internal Security & Order 4 Build Alliances & Security Cooperation 4 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 4	Hybrid coercionLegitimacy rupture	8.45 −0.747
2020	Buy Resource Infrastructure 4 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 4 Buy Internal Security & Order 4 Build Alliances & Security Cooperation 4 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 4	Severe pandemic	7.83 −0.619
2021	Buy Resource Infrastructure 4 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 4 Buy Internal Security & Order 4 Build Alliances & Security Cooperation 4 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 4		7.81 −0.018
2022	Buy Resource Infrastructure 3 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 3 Buy Internal Security & Order 3 Build Alliances & Security Cooperation 3 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 3		7.78 −0.029
2023	Buy Resource Infrastructure 3 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 3 Buy Internal Security & Order 3 Build Alliances & Security Cooperation 3 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 3		7.76 −0.021
2024	Buy Resource Infrastructure 3 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 3 Buy Internal Security & Order 3 Build Alliances & Security Cooperation 3 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 3		7.74 −0.020
2025	Buy Resource Infrastructure 3 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 3 Buy Internal Security & Order 3 Build Alliances & Security Cooperation 3 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 3		7.73 −0.009
2026	Buy Resource Infrastructure 3 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 3 Buy Internal Security & Order 3 Build Alliances & Security Cooperation 3 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 3		7.73 +0.001

Credits

What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.

Tiers by round

Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.

Domain	1996					2001					2006					2011					2016					2021					2026
Critical Technology	5	5	5	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
Strategic Infrastructure	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
National Security	5	5	5	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	7	7	7	7	7	8	8	8	8	8	8	8
Human Capital	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	5	5	4	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Information & Influence	6	6	6	6	6	6	7	7	7	7	6	6	6	6	5	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	4	5	5	5	5	4	4	4
Governance & Integrity	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13
Financial Strength	11	11	11	11	11	11	14	14	14	14	14	14	13	12	12	12	12	12	12	13	13	15	15	17	19	19	19	19	19	19	19
Production & Innovation	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	12	12	13	13	14	16	16	16	16	16	16	16
Trade & Investment	8	8	8	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	10	10	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11

Probes

What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds, this one among them: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.

Probe	Index	Score sum	Tier 1
Hold instead of the method	−1.287	−91.6	0.00
No shocks	+3.550	+249.0	+2.00
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0	0.00
Without the 1st largest decision	−0.009	−0.8	0.00
Without the 2nd largest decision	−0.012	−1.0	0.00
Without the 3rd largest decision	+0.010	+0.5	0.00
Without the 4th largest decision	+0.006	+0.1	0.00
Without the 5th largest decision	+0.006	+0.2	0.00
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.700	+49.2	0.00
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.711	+50.0	0.00
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.679	+48.2	0.00

Every group over the simulation

Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	1996	2026	Change	Invested	Events	Graph
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	10.85	15.95	+5.10	+8.80	−3.60	−0.10
Foundational Education	Human Capital	12.40	16.81	+4.41	+6.43	−1.68	−0.34
Advanced Education	Human Capital	13.25	16.12	+2.87	+3.67	−1.43	+0.62
Population Health	Human Capital	11.98	12.93	+0.95	+3.20	−2.08	−0.17
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	15.93	16.71	+0.78	+3.80	−2.13	−0.89
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	9.14	9.87	+0.73	+3.07	−2.41	+0.07
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	9.58	10.07	+0.49	+3.55	−3.00	−0.06
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.80	11.23	+0.43	+3.37	−2.39	−0.56
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	10.57	10.99	+0.42	+2.77	−2.39	+0.04
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	13.33	13.52	+0.19	+4.30	−3.64	−0.48
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	−2.91	−0.06
Health System Capability	Human Capital	11.99	11.75	−0.24	+2.73	−2.31	−0.67
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	13.42	13.12	−0.30	+3.45	−3.18	−0.58
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	12.93	12.37	−0.56	+2.90	−3.38	−0.07
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.68	11.92	−0.76	+3.83	−3.17	−1.41
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	10.64	9.39	−1.25	+1.60	−2.54	−0.30
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	11.03	9.73	−1.30	0.00	−1.66	+0.35
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	9.85	8.39	−1.46	0.00	−1.69	+0.24
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	10.63	9.15	−1.48	+0.57	−2.00	−0.04
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	11.25	9.74	−1.51	0.00	−1.65	+0.15
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	12.95	11.17	−1.78	0.00	−1.88	+0.10
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	10.35	8.51	−1.84	0.00	−1.68	−0.16
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	9.07	6.94	−2.13	0.00	−2.04	−0.09
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	7.56	5.35	−2.21	0.00	−2.08	−0.13
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	6.27	3.97	−2.30	0.00	−2.24	−0.06
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	3.07	0.77	−2.30	0.00	−2.23	−0.07
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	3.53	1.22	−2.31	0.00	−2.21	−0.09
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	4.34	2.03	−2.31	0.00	−2.19	−0.12
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	12.31	9.93	−2.38	+1.46	−3.69	−0.14
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	7.33	4.89	−2.44	0.00	−2.09	−0.35
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	10.17	7.65	−2.52	0.00	−2.25	−0.27
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	6.58	4.05	−2.53	0.00	−2.12	−0.41
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	12.69	10.12	−2.57	0.00	−2.31	−0.26
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	11.59	9.00	−2.59	0.00	−2.67	+0.08
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	9.67	6.98	−2.69	0.00	−2.77	+0.08
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.76	9.04	−2.72	0.00	−2.41	−0.32
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	9.45	6.68	−2.77	0.00	−2.69	−0.07
Air Power	National Security	10.19	7.40	−2.79	0.00	−2.50	−0.30
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.62	8.73	−2.89	+0.77	−2.52	−1.13
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	6.71	3.82	−2.89	0.00	−2.11	−0.77
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	10.79	7.87	−2.92	+1.05	−3.65	−0.33
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	11.71	8.75	−2.96	0.00	−3.21	+0.24
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	9.74	6.77	−2.97	0.00	−2.52	−0.46
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	6.44	3.42	−3.02	0.00	−2.35	−0.68
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	9.90	6.81	−3.09	0.00	−2.75	−0.34
Maritime Power	National Security	9.79	6.68	−3.11	0.00	−2.75	−0.35
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	6.30	3.09	−3.21	0.00	−2.66	−0.55
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	9.98	6.74	−3.24	0.00	−3.28	+0.04
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.79	8.54	−3.25	0.00	−2.57	−0.69
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	8.82	5.57	−3.25	0.00	−2.94	−0.32
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	8.96	5.70	−3.26	0.00	−2.93	−0.33
Space Operations	National Security	5.18	1.88	−3.30	0.00	−2.70	−0.60
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	9.52	6.19	−3.33	0.00	−2.91	−0.42
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	10.80	7.46	−3.34	0.00	−2.87	−0.47
Land Power	National Security	12.53	9.16	−3.37	0.00	−2.40	−0.97
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	11.12	7.61	−3.51	0.00	−3.24	−0.26
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.24	8.55	−3.69	0.00	−2.94	−0.75
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	10.64	6.89	−3.75	0.00	−3.44	−0.30
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	9.48	5.60	−3.88	0.00	−3.49	−0.39
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	11.63	7.69	−3.94	0.00	−3.45	−0.49
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	9.60	5.64	−3.96	0.00	−3.29	−0.67
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	10.35	6.22	−4.13	0.00	−3.46	−0.68
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	11.70	7.56	−4.14	0.00	−3.40	−0.74
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	10.23	5.80	−4.43	0.00	−4.29	−0.13
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	9.92	5.45	−4.47	0.00	−4.18	−0.28
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	9.85	5.20	−4.65	0.00	−4.32	−0.33
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	10.22	5.46	−4.76	0.00	−4.71	−0.05
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	12.85	8.03	−4.82	0.00	−3.80	−1.02
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	9.53	4.64	−4.89	+1.75	−6.24	−0.40
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	11.06	5.82	−5.24	0.00	−4.98	−0.26
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	11.53	5.94	−5.59	0.00	−5.14	−0.46
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	10.94	5.17	−5.77	0.00	−5.53	−0.23
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	11.06	5.03	−6.03	+1.40	−6.91	−0.52

Seed 10 of experiment cycle-002.e4-ven. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.