Batch cycle-003. Model 0.2.0, graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.1. 30 simulations, seeds 1 to 30; probes on 10. Every figure is a distribution over simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values; it shows what the model implies under these settings, not what will happen. Other nations are frozen at their 2026 ratings. No reconstructed historical data is used in this experiment.
Headline
United Arab Emirates played 30 rounds from 1996 under the scripted method, with scripted events, 30 times. Its capability index moved from 9.78 to a median of 9.76 (−0.02), with 90 per cent of simulations between 9.73 and 9.79 [experiment_objectives].
Starting position
In 1996 the nation ranks 48 on the index against the frozen field, holds 0 of nine domains at Tier 1 and has a tier rank of 29. Its base income is 308 credits a year, calibrated so that its 2026 position is affordable with headroom for investment.
What was decided
A simulation spent a median of 1,170 credits on moves. The five groups that took most were Space Technologies (partner, 130 credits, 11.1 per cent); Financial Infrastructure (build, 108 credits, 9.2 per cent); Resource Infrastructure (build, 108 credits, 9.2 per cent); Transport Infrastructure (build, 108 credits, 9.2 per cent); Trade Facilitation & Logistics (build, 108 credits, 9.2 per cent) [experiment_decisions_by_group]. By mode: build 64 per cent, partner 33 per cent, buy 3 per cent [experiment_decisions_by_group]. Concentration of spending (HHI) had a median of 0.073, and the most repeated action appeared in 33 per cent of rounds.
The leading domain by period: rounds 1 to 5, Strategic Infrastructure; rounds 6 to 10, Strategic Infrastructure; rounds 11 to 15, Critical Technology; rounds 16 to 20, Critical Technology; rounds 21 to 25, Critical Technology; rounds 26 to 30, Critical Technology [experiment_spend_by_period].
What the world did
A median simulation saw 4 shocks and 1 upside events. The most damaging per firing were S10 (30 firings in 30 simulations, −21.3 points each); S03 (30 firings in 30 simulations, −16.2 points each); S02 (60 firings in 30 simulations, −11.8 points each) [experiment_shocks]. Upside events fired 30 times across all simulations [experiment_shocks].
The groups that lost most to shocks, per simulation: Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance −2.37; Trade Facilitation & Logistics −1.84; Financial Regulation & Integrity −1.77; Financial System Depth & Access −1.76 [experiment_shock_damage_by_group].
The edges that carried most change through the graph, per simulation: Space Technologies to Space Operations (+1.78 points); Space Technologies to Strategic Strike & Missile Defence (+1.50 points); Space Technologies to Sensing, Timing & Navigation (+0.63 points) [experiment_propagation_by_edge].
Where it ended
At 2026 the median rank is 48 (5th to 95th percentile 48 to 48), the median count of Tier 1 domains 0 (0 to 0) and the median tier rank 20; the resilient score, the mean score sum over simulations, is 702 [experiment_objectives].
Why
Without shocks the index ends +0.683 higher on average, so the shocks cost about 0.683 index points [experiment_probe_attribution].
Holding instead of following this method changes the index by −0.876: that is the method's worth against doing nothing [experiment_probe_attribution].
Removing any single one of the five largest actions changes the index by between +0.009 and +0.037, for example 2010 partner Energy Technologies (16 credits) [experiment_probe_attribution]. The largest actions by credits come late, when income is highest, and are rarely the most valuable.
Removing the largest shock of a simulation raises the index by +0.289 on average [experiment_probe_attribution].
The replay probe reproduces the simulations exactly (index change 0.000000), so the attributions are clean [experiment_probe_attribution].
Surprises
The simulation furthest from the median (seed 6) ends −0.04 from it, with 4 shocks and 1 upside events [experiment_outlier_simulations].
Comparison
This is the baseline (hold) experiment, or there is none for this nation in the batch.
Against history: from a reconstructed index of 9.78 the model ends at 9.76, where the 2026 ratings put it at 11.94. Group scores miss by 2.86 points on average, against 2.47 for assuming nothing changed (skill −0.15); the change in each domain has the right sign in 33 per cent of domains. Furthest below history: national security (−3.78); furthest above: critical technology (−0.62) [experiment_against_history]. The starting position is reconstructed, so part of the error is the reconstruction's.