E4 · cycle-003.e4-arg

Argentina, scripted, 30 years from 1996

30 simulations of 30 rounds from the 1996 position. Argentina decides by the scripted method; scripted events: Global funding seizure in year 2, Legitimacy rupture in year 5, Debt service reset in year 9, Global funding seizure in year 12, Global funding seizure in year 22, Severe pandemic in year 24, Debt service reset in year 24, Breadbasket failure in year 26.

Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seeds 1–30 · elasticity sampled within each bracket

The same configuration in other cycles: cycle 2.

Every simulation · Compare with another experiment · More experiments like this

Not a forecast

Simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values, to compare methods and test the model. Other nations stay at their 2026 ratings throughout.

Outcome across simulations

The median at 2026, with the 10th to the 90th percentile of the 30 simulations under it.

Capability index: 9.72 (−1.04); From 10.76; 9.70 to 9.73
Rank by index: 49; From 39; 49 to 49
Domains at Tier 1: 1; From 0; 1 to 1
Tier rank: 19; From 33; 19 to 19

Capability index by round

Rank by index, by round

Every objective at the position and at the horizon
Objective	1996	10th percentile	Median	90th percentile	Better
Capability indexprimary	10.76	9.70	9.72	9.73	higher
Rank by index	39	49	49	49	lower
Tier rank	33	19	19	19	lower
Domains at Tier 1	0	1	1	1	higher
Score sum	778.4	709.6	710.5	711.3	higher
Goal-weighted score	778.4	709.6	710.5	711.3	higher
Resilient score	778.4	710.5 (mean score sum over the simulations)			higher

The capability index is the mean of the three dimensions, each the mean of its domains, each the mean of its groups. Tiers are Pareto layers within each domain; the tier rank orders nations by domains held at Tier 1, then Tier 2, and so on. The goal-weighted score is the score sum unless the experiment sets a goal. The primary objective is the one the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it.

Credits

What each round’s credits went on in the median simulation. Across all simulations, build took 84 per cent, buy took 0 per cent, partner took 16 per cent of the 1,728 credits a simulation spent on actions.

Against history

Started from a reconstructed 1996 position and played along the pathway and shocks Argentina actually had, then scored against the 2026 ratings. The position is an estimate, so part of any error is the reconstruction's. The calibration summary across all fifty nations is on the cycle's page under Loop.

Index 1996: 10.76; reconstructed
Observed 2026: 9.25; the Index's rating
Simulated 2026: 9.72; 9.65 to 9.78
Skill against persistence: −0.04; group error 1.70 against 1.63 if nothing changed

Domain	1996	Observed	Simulated	Bias	Direction
Critical Technology	8.84	6.22	8.16 8.1–8.3	+1.94	right
Strategic Infrastructure	12.16	11.80	11.91 11.8–12.0	+0.12	right
National Security	7.94	6.62	6.83 6.8–6.9	+0.21	right
Human Capital	12.78	11.40	13.20 13.1–13.3	+1.80	wrong
Information & Influence	11.70	9.33	9.34 9.3–9.4	+0.02	right
Governance & Integrity	10.67	10.87	10.20 10.2–10.2	−0.67	wrong
Financial Strength	10.84	7.44	9.59 9.6–9.7	+2.16	right
Production & Innovation	10.78	10.08	9.50 9.4–9.6	−0.59	right
Trade & Investment	11.14	9.49	8.74 8.7–8.8	−0.75	right

The history it was played under: shocks and events

1998 · S02 × 1 The 1998-2002 depression and December 2001 sovereign default followed a sudden stop in external financing and ended Convertibility.
2001 · S05 × 1 December 2001 riots and the fall of two presidents in days produced a constitutional transfer crisis and temporary breakdown of effective government.
2005 · S11 × 0.7 The 2005 sovereign debt exchange restructured most defaulted bonds, releasing fiscal and external capacity.
2008 · S02 × 0.4 The global financial crisis hit Argentina mainly through commodity price and growth slowdown because it remained cut off from global credit.
2018 · S02 × 0.9 A new sudden stop, peso collapse and IMF Stand-By Arrangement marked balance-of-payments crisis and renewed sovereign stress.
2020 · S10 × 1 COVID-19 and one of the longest lockdowns caused a severe recession and massive health-system stress.
2020 · S11 × 0.6 The 2020 restructuring of private external debt with large creditor participation provided partial debt service relief.
2022 · S06 × 0.6 A historic drought cut soy, wheat and maize harvests, causing large agricultural export losses and food system strain.

The pathway: what it prioritised, period by period

1997–1999 · partner · 2% each Convertibility, utility privatisations and Mercosur-centred trade opening anchored the Menem administration's market model. (Communications & Digital Infrastructure, Energy Infrastructure, Financial Infrastructure, Trade Policy & Market Access, Monetary & Currency Capability)
2000–2002 · build · 5% each Austerity, IMF conditionality and emergency social protection were overwhelmed by depression, sovereign default and bank freezes. (Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance, Financial Stability & Crisis Management, National Resilience & Crisis Management, Political Institutions & Civic Participation, Social Infrastructure)
2003–2007 · build · 2% each Debt restructuring, commodity windfalls and deliberate public investment in infrastructure, education and science institutions drove the recovery. (Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance, Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power, Energy Infrastructure, Advanced Education, Research Talent & Knowledge Creation)
2008–2015 · build · 5% each Nationalisations, the ARSAT and CONAE satellite programmes, and industrial protection were flagship priorities amid rising fiscal strain and inflation. (Energy Infrastructure, Space Technologies, Advanced Education, Research Talent & Knowledge Creation, Industrial & Sectoral Base)
2015–2019 · partner · 2% each The Macri government reopened international credit and trade, pursued public-private infrastructure and attempted to normalise institutions and statistics. (Trade Policy & Market Access, Transport Infrastructure, Energy Infrastructure, Financial System Depth & Access, Transparency, Oversight & Accountability)
2020–2023 · build · 2% each Pandemic health measures, IMF renegotiation and expanded social protection dominated the Fernández administration. (Health System Capability, Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance, National Resilience & Crisis Management, Social Infrastructure, Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power)
2024–2026 · build · 5% each Milei's shock stabilisation, fiscal surplus, deregulation and attempted currency competition became the flagship national programme. (Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance, Monetary & Currency Capability, Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls, Government Effectiveness & Public Administration, Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship)

Reconstruction notes (deepseek-v4-pro): The relative scoring of Argentina's agricultural biotechnology, food infrastructure and human capital is approximate because the country was internationally strong in these areas but far from the 1996 frontier. Military, digital and cyber capabilities in the 1990s are poorly documented, so those scores carry particular uncertainty. Event magnitudes are judgement-based because Argentina's repeated sovereign, currency and political crises were tightly intertwined with global shocks and each other.

Report

Written from the simulation record by the loop's narrator. Every figure names the query it came from, in square brackets.

Batch cycle-003. Model 0.2.0, graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.1. 30 simulations, seeds 1 to 30; probes on 10. Every figure is a distribution over simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values; it shows what the model implies under these settings, not what will happen. Other nations are frozen at their 2026 ratings. No reconstructed historical data is used in this experiment.

Headline

Argentina played 30 rounds from 1996 under the scripted method, with scripted events, 30 times. Its capability index moved from 10.76 to a median of 9.72 (−1.04), with 90 per cent of simulations between 9.70 and 9.73 [experiment_objectives].

Starting position

In 1996 the nation ranks 39 on the index against the frozen field, holds 0 of nine domains at Tier 1 and has a tier rank of 33. Its base income is 353 credits a year, calibrated so that its 2026 position is affordable with headroom for investment.

What was decided

A simulation spent a median of 1,728 credits on moves. The five groups that took most were Advanced Education (build, 169 credits, 9.8 per cent); Research Talent & Knowledge Creation (build, 169 credits, 9.8 per cent); Energy Infrastructure (build, 169 credits, 9.8 per cent); Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance (build, 155 credits, 9.0 per cent); Space Technologies (build, 136 credits, 7.9 per cent) [experiment_decisions_by_group]. By mode: build 84 per cent, partner 16 per cent [experiment_decisions_by_group]. Concentration of spending (HHI) had a median of 0.069, and the most repeated action appeared in 50 per cent of rounds.

The leading domain by period: rounds 1 to 5, Strategic Infrastructure; rounds 6 to 10, Financial Strength; rounds 11 to 15, Human Capital; rounds 16 to 20, Human Capital; rounds 21 to 25, Strategic Infrastructure; rounds 26 to 30, Financial Strength [experiment_spend_by_period].

What the world did

A median simulation saw 6 shocks and 2 upside events. The most damaging per firing were S05 (30 firings in 30 simulations, −36.4 points each); S10 (30 firings in 30 simulations, −33.8 points each); S06 (30 firings in 30 simulations, −20.4 points each) [experiment_shocks]. Upside events fired 60 times across all simulations [experiment_shocks].

The groups that lost most to shocks, per simulation: Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance −5.14; Monetary & Currency Capability −5.06; Investment Attraction & Projection −4.35; Financial System Depth & Access −4.10 [experiment_shock_damage_by_group].

The edges that carried most change through the graph, per simulation: Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance to Social Infrastructure (−0.19 points); Research Talent & Knowledge Creation to Biotechnology & Health Technologies (+0.86 points); Advanced Education to Research Talent & Knowledge Creation (+0.84 points) [experiment_propagation_by_edge].

Where it ended

At 2026 the median rank is 49 (5th to 95th percentile 49 to 49), the median count of Tier 1 domains 1 (1 to 1) and the median tier rank 19; the resilient score, the mean score sum over simulations, is 710 [experiment_objectives].

Tier 1 probability changed most in: human capital (0 to 100 per cent of simulations) [experiment_tiers_by_round].

Why

Without shocks the index ends +2.301 higher on average, so the shocks cost about 2.301 index points [experiment_probe_attribution].

Holding instead of following this method changes the index by −1.405: that is the method's worth against doing nothing [experiment_probe_attribution].

Removing any single one of the five largest actions changes the index by between −0.013 and −0.001, for example 2009 build Energy Infrastructure (18 credits) [experiment_probe_attribution]. The largest actions by credits come late, when income is highest, and are rarely the most valuable.

Removing the largest shock of a simulation raises the index by +0.652 on average [experiment_probe_attribution].

The replay probe reproduces the simulations exactly (index change 0.000000), so the attributions are clean [experiment_probe_attribution].

Surprises

tier_jump (warn): largest gain in one domain within five years: 7 tiers (30 simulations above 2); tiers are reported, not an objective.

retired_words (warn): e4-arg/report.md: 'simulations' 1 time(s), first near line 39; use 'simulations'.

The simulation furthest from the median (seed 9) ends +0.02 from it, with 6 shocks and 2 upside events [experiment_outlier_simulations].

Comparison

This is the baseline (hold) experiment, or there is none for this nation in the batch.

Against history: from a reconstructed index of 10.76 the model ends at 9.72, where the 2026 ratings put it at 9.25. Group scores miss by 1.69 points on average, against 1.63 for assuming nothing changed (skill −0.04); the change in each domain has the right sign in 78 per cent of domains. Furthest below history: trade and investment (−0.75); furthest above: financial strength (+2.16) [experiment_against_history]. The starting position is reconstructed, so part of the error is the reconstruction's.

What each decision and shock was worth

Counterfactual probes on the first 10 seeds: the same simulations with one thing changed, paired seed by seed. A removed decision or shock is taken out and the other decisions replayed unchanged, so the difference is that item's worth.

Probe	Index	Score sum	Tier 1	For example
Hold instead of the method	−1.405	−100.1	−1.00
No shocks	+2.301	+158.8	+1.80
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0	0.00
Without the 1st largest decision	−0.007	−0.6	0.00	2009 build Energy Infrastructure (18 credits)
Without the 2nd largest decision	−0.008	−0.7	0.00	2009 build Space Technologies (18 credits)
Without the 3rd largest decision	−0.001	−0.1	0.00	2009 build Advanced Education (18 credits)
Without the 4th largest decision	−0.009	−0.8	0.00	2009 build Research Talent & Knowledge Creation (18 credits)
Without the 5th largest decision	−0.013	−0.8	0.00	2009 build Industrial & Sectoral Base (18 credits)
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.652	+45.7	0.00	2001 S05 (-36.4 points)
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.545	+38.1	0.00	2020 S10 (-33.9 points)
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.521	+35.1	0.00	1998 S02 (-25.2 points)

Simulations

Three simulations told round by round, each on its own page: the one nearest the median index at the horizon, and those nearest the 10th and the 90th percentile. Every one of the 30 is listed with its outcome on the simulations page.

All 30 simulations

Events

How often each shock and upside event began across the simulations. Shocks come from the ten downside scenarios and upside events from the ten upside ones, at their yearly likelihood.

Event	Kind	Simulations	Mean round	Points
Global funding seizure S02	Shock	100 per cent	12.0	−18.8
Legitimacy rupture S05	Shock	100 per cent	5.0	−36.4
Breadbasket failure S06	Shock	100 per cent	26.0	−20.4
Severe pandemic S10	Shock	100 per cent	24.0	−33.8
Debt service reset S11	Upside	100 per cent	16.5	+5.3

Groups across simulations

Every capability group: its position, and its median and spread at the horizon across the simulations, with what the method spent on it.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	1996	2026	Change	Levels invested	Credits
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	13.21	19.76 19.52 to 19.93	+6.55	6.58	169
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.41	17.30 17.27 to 17.32	+5.89	7.26	223
Advanced Education	Human Capital	14.31	19.58 19.57 to 19.60	+5.27	6.51	169
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	11.90	16.58 16.43 to 16.70	+4.68	6.30	136
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	9.35	12.63 12.58 to 12.68	+3.28	4.65	136
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	13.33	15.44 15.37 to 15.51	+2.11	5.21	55
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	11.00	12.76 12.72 to 12.81	+1.76	3.42	75
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	8.42	9.40 9.37 to 9.44	+0.98	3.36	59
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	11.84	12.54 12.51 to 12.55	+0.70	2.28	49
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	10.32	10.84 10.77 to 10.95	+0.52	5.79	155
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.68	13.14 13.11 to 13.20	+0.46	2.55	75
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.19	12.23 12.18 to 12.27	+0.04	1.48	33
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	10.45	10.48 10.47 to 10.50	+0.03	1.46	33
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	0.00	0.00 0.00 to 0.00	0.00	0.00	0
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	9.86	9.65 9.63 to 9.65	−0.21	1.02	47
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	13.51	13.15 13.08 to 13.21	−0.36	1.09	21
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	6.13	5.61 5.41 to 5.76	−0.52	0.00	0
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	10.43	9.89 9.86 to 9.93	−0.54	1.84	47
Space Operations	National Security	5.78	5.23 5.16 to 5.30	−0.55	0.00	0
Health System Capability	Human Capital	12.95	12.35 12.32 to 12.39	−0.60	1.05	26
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	4.18	3.51 3.47 to 3.54	−0.67	0.00	0
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	11.17	10.37 10.29 to 10.43	−0.80	0.00	0
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	7.49	6.67 6.60 to 6.72	−0.82	0.00	0
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	11.39	10.49 10.43 to 10.54	−0.90	0.00	0
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	10.96	9.98 9.82 to 10.16	−0.98	0.00	0
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	8.63	7.57 7.43 to 7.66	−1.06	0.00	0
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.63	11.56 11.40 to 11.67	−1.07	1.29	21
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	10.05	8.96 8.81 to 9.07	−1.09	0.00	0
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	8.46	7.36 7.30 to 7.43	−1.10	0.00	0
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	9.73	8.62 8.59 to 8.64	−1.11	0.00	0
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	8.71	7.58 7.56 to 7.60	−1.13	0.00	0
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	9.37	8.21 8.16 to 8.26	−1.16	0.00	0
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	10.77	9.61 9.58 to 9.65	−1.16	0.00	0
Maritime Power	National Security	8.57	7.38 7.35 to 7.39	−1.19	0.00	0
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	8.72	7.52 7.49 to 7.55	−1.20	0.00	0
Foundational Education	Human Capital	13.83	12.58 12.56 to 12.61	−1.25	0.00	0
Air Power	National Security	9.09	7.79 7.77 to 7.82	−1.30	0.00	0
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	9.25	7.93 7.83 to 8.02	−1.32	0.00	0
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	10.12	8.78 8.74 to 8.83	−1.34	0.00	0
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	13.70	12.35 12.13 to 12.63	−1.35	0.00	0
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	11.98	10.58 10.53 to 10.62	−1.40	1.03	47
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	11.13	9.72 9.61 to 9.83	−1.41	2.40	49
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	10.19	8.74 8.66 to 8.82	−1.45	0.00	0
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	13.65	12.18 12.12 to 12.23	−1.47	0.00	0
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	9.85	8.36 8.34 to 8.38	−1.49	0.00	0
Land Power	National Security	10.40	8.88 8.78 to 8.92	−1.52	0.00	0
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	8.46	6.93 6.90 to 6.96	−1.53	0.00	0
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	10.79	9.17 8.92 to 9.28	−1.62	0.00	0
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	12.94	11.29 11.08 to 11.42	−1.65	0.00	0
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	10.98	9.33 9.31 to 9.34	−1.65	2.10	33
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.29	10.58 10.48 to 10.75	−1.71	0.00	0
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.16	9.36 9.33 to 9.39	−1.80	0.00	0
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	15.43	13.61 13.54 to 13.69	−1.82	0.00	0
Population Health	Human Capital	13.73	11.89 11.84 to 11.92	−1.84	0.00	0
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	8.61	6.67 6.59 to 6.74	−1.94	0.00	0
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	10.61	8.64 8.59 to 8.68	−1.97	0.00	0
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	9.94	7.94 7.89 to 8.00	−2.00	0.00	0
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	10.50	8.47 8.41 to 8.50	−2.03	0.00	0
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	12.29	10.26 10.24 to 10.31	−2.03	0.00	0
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	13.20	10.97 10.95 to 10.99	−2.23	2.66	68
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	11.95	9.57 9.52 to 9.64	−2.38	0.00	0
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	11.23	8.82 8.79 to 8.86	−2.41	0.00	0
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	9.93	7.46 7.37 to 7.55	−2.47	0.00	0
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	9.89	7.23 7.16 to 7.28	−2.66	0.00	0
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	10.64	7.95 7.94 to 7.97	−2.69	0.00	0
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	12.48	9.77 9.69 to 9.85	−2.71	0.00	0
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	10.72	7.91 7.86 to 7.98	−2.81	0.00	0
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	11.92	8.50 8.48 to 8.51	−3.42	0.00	0
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	11.25	7.80 7.74 to 7.85	−3.45	0.00	0
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	9.92	6.28 6.24 to 6.33	−3.64	0.00	0
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	10.97	7.30 7.28 to 7.33	−3.67	0.00	0
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	11.53	7.77 7.75 to 7.80	−3.76	0.00	0
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	11.92	7.38 7.35 to 7.44	−4.54	0.00	0

Checks

The automated checks run on this experiment before anything was written about it. A warning is a candidate finding for the improvement loop.

passcredits_conservedlargest gap between credits in and credits accounted for: 2.3e-13
passscores_in_boundsscores range 0.000 to 20.000
passno_nans0 missing values in the trajectory and objectives
passprobe_replay_reproducesthe recorded moves played back reproduce the simulation to within 0.0e+00 points (10 simulations)
passledger_balancesthe edge ledger sums to the propagated change to within 1.3e-06 points
passmove_without_shocklargest one-year move in a group with no shock landing: 0.94 points; 0% of simulations have one above 3
warntier_jumplargest gain in one domain within five years: 7 tiers (30 simulations above 2); tiers are reported, not an objective
passall_tier1_from_outside_top10starting rank 39; 0 simulations reach Tier 1 in all nine domains
passsaturation_high0% of simulations end with a group at 20 that did not start there (median 0 groups)
passsaturation_low0% of simulations end with a group at 0 that did not start there (median 0 groups)
passspend_concentrationmedian concentration of spending across groups (HHI) 0.069; most funded group hard.strategic_infrastructure.energy_infrastructure
passsame_actionthe most repeated move (group and mode) appears in a median 50% of rounds
passregression_index_p50index_p50 moved 3.8% since cycle-002 (9.36 to 9.72); versions changed (0.1.0 to 0.1.1, graph 0.2.0 to 0.2.0)
passregression_score_sum_p50score_sum_p50 moved 3.7% since cycle-002 (685.40 to 710.47); versions changed (0.1.0 to 0.1.1, graph 0.2.0 to 0.2.0)

Settings and versions

Experiment cycle-003.e4-arg. Every simulation records the model, graph and parameter versions, the scenario, the method and its seed, so it can be reproduced exactly.

Nation: Argentina (ARG)
Position: A reconstructed 1996 position, aligned to the Index's scale
Method: Scripted. Actions fixed in advance by the experiment: for a backcast, the nation's historical pathway.
Scenario: Scripted events: Global funding seizure in year 2, Legitimacy rupture in year 5, Debt service reset in year 9, Global funding seizure in year 12, Global funding seizure in year 22, Severe pandemic in year 24, Debt service reset in year 24, Breadbasket failure in year 26
Objective: Capability index, the primary objective the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it
Horizon: 30 rounds, 1996 to 2026
Simulations: 30 seeds, 1 to 30. Every method in the batch faces the same draws for the same seed.
Graph elasticities: Drawn for each simulation, uniformly within each edge’s bracket
Income: Base credits 353.5 a round, moving with the economic groups
Versions: Model 0.2.0, Capability Dependency Graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.1
Batch: Backcast 1996-2026 (cycle-003), cycle 3 of the improvement loop
Runtime: 6.8 seconds in all; 1635 microseconds a round

Not a forecast: Every figure is a distribution over the simulations of a structural model, reported to compare methods and test the model. None is a prediction of what a nation will do or become.
Structural parameters: Costs, decay, vulnerability and credits are structural seed values with low or medium confidence, set by domain with single-group exceptions. Five groups have no defensible value in a single-nation model and are flagged in the parameter tables.
Other nations are frozen: One nation is simulated at a time. Every other nation stays at its 2026 rating, so rank and tiers are measured against a still field; where the simulated nation rises past others their own tiers are not re-sorted.
Starting depth and mode are defaults: The position is the National Capability Index ratings. How institutionalised each capability is, and how much was built, bought or partnered, have no data behind them yet and start from structural defaults.
Credits are calibrated, not measured: Each nation’s income is set so that its position is affordable with headroom that rises with its fiscal capacity. It is not yet fiscal capacity as a share of GDP.