Median simulation · cycle-003.e4-arg

Simulation 4

Argentina, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 4: median simulation of the experiment's 30. Capability index 10.76 at the 1996 position, 9.72 in 2026; 155 actions over 30 rounds and 6 shocks.

Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 4

The experiment · The other representative simulations: 25 (a poor simulation (10th percentile)), 30 (a good simulation (90th percentile))

Outcome

From the 1996 position to 2026.

Capability index: 9.72 (−1.04); From 10.76
Rank by index: 49; From 39
Domains at Tier 1: 1; From 0
Events: 6 shocks; 2 upside events

Trajectory by domain

The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.

ShockUpside event

Capability index by round

Pathway, round by round

Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.

Round	Decision	Events	Index
1997	Partner Communications & Digital Infrastructure 7 Partner Energy Infrastructure 7 Partner Financial Infrastructure 7 Partner Trade Policy & Market Access 7 Partner Monetary & Currency Capability 7		10.77 +0.013
1998	Partner Communications & Digital Infrastructure 7 Partner Energy Infrastructure 7 Partner Financial Infrastructure 7 Partner Trade Policy & Market Access 7 Partner Monetary & Currency Capability 7	Global funding seizure	10.41 −0.360
1999	Partner Communications & Digital Infrastructure 7 Partner Energy Infrastructure 7 Partner Financial Infrastructure 7 Partner Trade Policy & Market Access 7 Partner Monetary & Currency Capability 7		10.43 +0.021
2000	Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 17 Build Financial Stability & Crisis Management 17 Build National Resilience & Crisis Management 17 Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 17 Build Social Infrastructure 17		10.45 +0.020
2001	Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 16 Build Financial Stability & Crisis Management 16 Build National Resilience & Crisis Management 16 Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 16 Build Social Infrastructure 16	Legitimacy rupture	9.96 −0.497
2002	Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 17 Build Financial Stability & Crisis Management 17 Build National Resilience & Crisis Management 17 Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 17 Build Social Infrastructure 17		9.99 +0.033
2003	Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 6 Build Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 6 Build Energy Infrastructure 6 Build Advanced Education 6 Build Research Talent & Knowledge Creation 6		10.02 +0.026
2004	Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 6 Build Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 6 Build Energy Infrastructure 6 Build Advanced Education 6 Build Research Talent & Knowledge Creation 6		10.04 +0.029
2005	Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 7 Build Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 7 Build Energy Infrastructure 7 Build Advanced Education 7 Build Research Talent & Knowledge Creation 7	Debt service reset	10.08 +0.037
2006	Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 7 Build Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 7 Build Energy Infrastructure 7 Build Advanced Education 7 Build Research Talent & Knowledge Creation 7		10.12 +0.034
2007	Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 7 Build Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 7 Build Energy Infrastructure 7 Build Advanced Education 7 Build Research Talent & Knowledge Creation 7		10.15 +0.040
2008	Build Energy Infrastructure 18 Build Space Technologies 18 Build Advanced Education 18 Build Research Talent & Knowledge Creation 18 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 18	Global funding seizure	10.06 −0.099
2009	Build Energy Infrastructure 18 Build Space Technologies 18 Build Advanced Education 18 Build Research Talent & Knowledge Creation 18 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 18		10.11 +0.053
2010	Build Energy Infrastructure 18 Build Space Technologies 18 Build Advanced Education 18 Build Research Talent & Knowledge Creation 18 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 18		10.15 +0.043
2011	Build Energy Infrastructure 17 Build Space Technologies 17 Build Advanced Education 17 Build Research Talent & Knowledge Creation 17 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 17		10.20 +0.047
2012	Build Energy Infrastructure 17 Build Space Technologies 17 Build Advanced Education 17 Build Research Talent & Knowledge Creation 17 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 17		10.25 +0.051
2013	Build Energy Infrastructure 17 Build Space Technologies 17 Build Advanced Education 17 Build Research Talent & Knowledge Creation 17 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 17		10.30 +0.049
2014	Build Energy Infrastructure 17 Build Space Technologies 17 Build Advanced Education 17 Build Research Talent & Knowledge Creation 17 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 17		10.35 +0.048
2015	Build Energy Infrastructure 17 Build Space Technologies 17 Build Advanced Education 17 Build Research Talent & Knowledge Creation 17 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 17 Partner Trade Policy & Market Access 7 Partner Transport Infrastructure 7 Partner Energy Infrastructure 7 Partner Financial System Depth & Access 7 Partner Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 7		10.40 +0.058
2016	Partner Trade Policy & Market Access 7 Partner Transport Infrastructure 7 Partner Energy Infrastructure 7 Partner Financial System Depth & Access 7 Partner Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 7		10.46 +0.058
2017	Partner Trade Policy & Market Access 7 Partner Transport Infrastructure 7 Partner Energy Infrastructure 7 Partner Financial System Depth & Access 7 Partner Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 7		10.51 +0.052
2018	Partner Trade Policy & Market Access 7 Partner Transport Infrastructure 7 Partner Energy Infrastructure 7 Partner Financial System Depth & Access 7 Partner Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 7	Global funding seizure	10.23 −0.284
2019	Partner Trade Policy & Market Access 7 Partner Transport Infrastructure 7 Partner Energy Infrastructure 7 Partner Financial System Depth & Access 7 Partner Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 7		10.26 +0.034
2020	Build Health System Capability 6 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 6 Build National Resilience & Crisis Management 6 Build Social Infrastructure 6 Build Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 6	Severe pandemicDebt service reset	9.81 −0.451
2021	Build Health System Capability 6 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 6 Build National Resilience & Crisis Management 6 Build Social Infrastructure 6 Build Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 6		9.84 +0.026
2022	Build Health System Capability 7 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 7 Build National Resilience & Crisis Management 7 Build Social Infrastructure 7 Build Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 7	Breadbasket failure	9.57 −0.269
2023	Build Health System Capability 7 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 7 Build National Resilience & Crisis Management 7 Build Social Infrastructure 7 Build Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 7		9.59 +0.022
2024	Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 16 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 16 Build Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 16 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 16 Build Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 16		9.63 +0.036
2025	Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 16 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 16 Build Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 16 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 16 Build Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 16		9.66 +0.037
2026	Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 15 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 15 Build Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 15 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 15 Build Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 15		9.72 +0.054

Credits

What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.

Tiers by round

Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.

Domain	1996					2001					2006					2011					2016					2021					2026
Critical Technology	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6
Strategic Infrastructure	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
National Security	6	6	6	6	6	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	6	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
Human Capital	5	5	5	5	5	5	6	5	5	5	5	5	5	4	3	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Information & Influence	5	5	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
Governance & Integrity	12	12	13	13	13	13	12	11	11	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	11	11	11	11	11	11	10	10	10
Financial Strength	12	12	15	13	13	16	16	16	16	16	16	15	16	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	16	16	17	17	17	17	15	15	15
Production & Innovation	9	9	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	9	6	3	3	3	2	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
Trade & Investment	9	8	8	7	7	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	7	6	6	5	6	6	7	7	7	7	7

Probes

What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds, this one among them: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.

Probe	Index	Score sum	Tier 1
Hold instead of the method	−1.405	−100.1	−1.00
No shocks	+2.301	+158.8	+1.80
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0	0.00
Without the 1st largest decision	−0.007	−0.6	0.00
Without the 2nd largest decision	−0.008	−0.7	0.00
Without the 3rd largest decision	−0.001	−0.1	0.00
Without the 4th largest decision	−0.009	−0.8	0.00
Without the 5th largest decision	−0.013	−0.8	0.00
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.652	+45.7	0.00
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.545	+38.1	0.00
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.521	+35.1	0.00

Every group over the simulation

Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	1996	2026	Change	Invested	Events	Graph
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	13.21	19.82	+6.61	+6.59	−0.83	+0.85
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.41	17.30	+5.89	+7.27	−1.21	−0.18
Advanced Education	Human Capital	14.31	19.60	+5.29	+6.52	−0.82	−0.05
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	11.90	16.71	+4.81	+6.30	−2.01	+0.52
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	9.35	12.57	+3.22	+4.66	−1.42	−0.02
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	13.33	15.36	+2.03	+5.22	−2.79	−0.41
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	11.00	12.75	+1.75	+3.42	−1.42	−0.25
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	8.42	9.38	+0.96	+3.38	−2.19	−0.23
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	11.84	12.55	+0.71	+2.28	−1.51	−0.06
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	10.32	10.96	+0.64	+5.76	−4.74	−0.40
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.68	13.14	+0.46	+2.56	−1.75	−0.34
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.19	12.26	+0.07	+1.48	−1.26	−0.14
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	10.45	10.49	+0.04	+1.46	−1.48	+0.07
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	9.86	9.64	−0.22	+1.03	−1.21	−0.04
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	6.13	5.75	−0.38	0.00	−1.07	+0.68
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	13.51	13.10	−0.41	+1.09	−1.24	−0.26
Space Operations	National Security	5.78	5.29	−0.49	0.00	−0.76	+0.28
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	10.43	9.84	−0.59	+1.85	−2.15	−0.29
Health System Capability	Human Capital	12.95	12.35	−0.60	+1.05	−1.55	−0.11
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	4.18	3.52	−0.66	0.00	−0.73	+0.07
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	7.49	6.72	−0.77	0.00	−0.96	+0.19
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	10.96	10.12	−0.84	0.00	−1.27	+0.44
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	11.39	10.54	−0.85	0.00	−1.04	+0.19
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	11.17	10.29	−0.88	0.00	−1.04	+0.16
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	10.05	9.01	−1.04	0.00	−1.70	+0.66
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.63	11.58	−1.05	+1.29	−1.80	−0.54
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	9.73	8.66	−1.07	0.00	−0.99	−0.07
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	9.37	8.25	−1.12	0.00	−1.15	+0.02
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	8.71	7.57	−1.14	0.00	−1.08	−0.07
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	10.77	9.62	−1.15	0.00	−1.04	−0.11
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	8.46	7.28	−1.18	0.00	−1.40	+0.22
Maritime Power	National Security	8.57	7.38	−1.19	0.00	−1.06	−0.13
Foundational Education	Human Capital	13.83	12.63	−1.20	0.00	−1.15	−0.05
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	8.63	7.43	−1.20	0.00	−1.42	+0.22
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	8.72	7.51	−1.21	0.00	−1.07	−0.13
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	9.25	7.93	−1.32	0.00	−1.50	+0.19
Air Power	National Security	9.09	7.74	−1.35	0.00	−1.11	−0.23
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	10.12	8.76	−1.36	0.00	−1.21	−0.15
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	11.98	10.57	−1.41	+1.04	−2.49	+0.05
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	13.70	12.28	−1.42	0.00	−2.15	+0.74
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	10.19	8.74	−1.45	0.00	−1.63	+0.18
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	13.65	12.16	−1.49	0.00	−1.21	−0.28
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	9.85	8.36	−1.49	0.00	−1.56	+0.06
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.29	10.76	−1.53	0.00	−1.25	−0.28
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	8.46	6.92	−1.54	0.00	−1.37	−0.17
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	11.13	9.59	−1.54	+2.41	−3.58	−0.37
Land Power	National Security	10.40	8.85	−1.55	0.00	−1.21	−0.34
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	10.79	9.19	−1.60	0.00	−2.27	+0.67
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	10.98	9.31	−1.67	+2.10	−3.69	−0.08
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	12.94	11.14	−1.80	0.00	−2.09	+0.29
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.16	9.33	−1.83	0.00	−1.60	−0.23
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	15.43	13.58	−1.85	0.00	−1.50	−0.34
Population Health	Human Capital	13.73	11.86	−1.87	0.00	−1.58	−0.29
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	10.61	8.64	−1.97	0.00	−1.78	−0.19
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	8.61	6.63	−1.98	0.00	−1.70	−0.28
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	10.50	8.52	−1.98	0.00	−1.95	−0.03
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	12.29	10.25	−2.04	0.00	−2.11	+0.07
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	9.94	7.90	−2.04	0.00	−2.12	+0.08
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	13.20	10.97	−2.23	+2.66	−4.85	−0.04
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	11.95	9.62	−2.33	0.00	−2.12	−0.20
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	9.93	7.52	−2.41	0.00	−2.52	+0.11
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	11.23	8.80	−2.43	0.00	−2.26	−0.17
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	10.64	7.95	−2.69	0.00	−2.62	−0.06
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	9.89	7.18	−2.71	0.00	−2.45	−0.26
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	10.72	7.98	−2.74	0.00	−2.63	−0.11
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	12.48	9.69	−2.79	0.00	−2.45	−0.34
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	11.92	8.49	−3.43	0.00	−3.35	−0.09
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	11.25	7.76	−3.49	0.00	−3.25	−0.24
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	9.92	6.34	−3.58	0.00	−3.40	−0.18
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	10.97	7.29	−3.68	0.00	−3.54	−0.14
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	11.53	7.79	−3.74	0.00	−3.69	−0.04
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	11.92	7.35	−4.57	0.00	−4.24	−0.34

Seed 4 of experiment cycle-003.e4-arg. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.