E4 · cycle-003.e4-bgd

Bangladesh, scripted, 30 years from 1996

30 simulations of 30 rounds from the 1996 position. Bangladesh decides by the scripted method; scripted events: Core disaster in year 2, Legitimacy rupture in year 11, Breadbasket failure in year 12, Severe pandemic in year 24, Breadbasket failure in year 26, Legitimacy rupture in year 28.

Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seeds 1–30 · elasticity sampled within each bracket

The same configuration in other cycles: cycle 2.

Every simulation · Compare with another experiment · More experiments like this

Not a forecast

Simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values, to compare methods and test the model. Other nations stay at their 2026 ratings throughout.

Outcome across simulations

The median at 2026, with the 10th to the 90th percentile of the 30 simulations under it.

Capability index: 5.38 (−1.09); From 6.47; 5.37 to 5.38
Rank by index: 112; From 90; 112 to 112
Domains at Tier 1: 0; From 0; 0 to 0
Tier rank: 87; From 101; 87 to 87

Capability index by round

Rank by index, by round

Every objective at the position and at the horizon
Objective	1996	10th percentile	Median	90th percentile	Better
Capability indexprimary	6.47	5.37	5.38	5.38	higher
Rank by index	90	112	112	112	lower
Tier rank	101	87	87	87	lower
Domains at Tier 1	0	0	0	0	higher
Score sum	458.4	386.5	387.0	387.3	higher
Goal-weighted score	458.4	386.5	387.0	387.3	higher
Resilient score	458.3	386.9 (mean score sum over the simulations)			higher

The capability index is the mean of the three dimensions, each the mean of its domains, each the mean of its groups. Tiers are Pareto layers within each domain; the tier rank orders nations by domains held at Tier 1, then Tier 2, and so on. The goal-weighted score is the score sum unless the experiment sets a goal. The primary objective is the one the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it.

Credits

What each round’s credits went on in the median simulation. Across all simulations, build took 92 per cent, buy took 0 per cent, partner took 8 per cent of the 663 credits a simulation spent on actions.

Against history

Started from a reconstructed 1996 position and played along the pathway and shocks Bangladesh actually had, then scored against the 2026 ratings. The position is an estimate, so part of any error is the reconstruction's. The calibration summary across all fifty nations is on the cycle's page under Loop.

Index 1996: 6.47; reconstructed
Observed 2026: 6.73; the Index's rating
Simulated 2026: 5.38; 5.34 to 5.41
Skill against persistence: −0.87; group error 1.61 against 0.86 if nothing changed

Domain	1996	Observed	Simulated	Bias	Direction
Critical Technology	2.67	2.50	2.24 2.2–2.3	−0.26	wrong
Strategic Infrastructure	6.83	8.50	6.73 6.7–6.8	−1.77	wrong
National Security	4.84	5.71	3.67 3.6–3.7	−2.04	wrong
Human Capital	7.25	7.36	6.93 6.9–7.0	−0.43	wrong
Information & Influence	6.65	7.12	4.86 4.8–4.9	−2.27	wrong
Governance & Integrity	7.78	7.38	6.50 6.5–6.5	−0.88	right
Financial Strength	7.84	7.19	5.27 5.2–5.3	−1.92	right
Production & Innovation	6.90	7.36	5.95 5.9–6.0	−1.40	wrong
Trade & Investment	7.45	7.42	6.25 6.2–6.3	−1.16	wrong

The history it was played under: shocks and events

1998 · S07 × 0.8 Catastrophic monsoon floods submerged nearly two-thirds of Bangladesh, destroying crops, homes and transport links and forcing massive relief operations.
2007 · S05 × 0.6 A disputed electoral process led to a military-backed caretaker government, emergency rule and suspension of normal politics.
2008 · S06 × 0.5 The global food price spike doubled rice prices in Bangladesh, worsening food insecurity for millions and testing the public distribution system.
2020 · S10 × 0.8 COVID-19 arrived in March 2020, collapsing ready-made garment orders, disrupting remittances and straining a weak health system.
2022 · S06 × 0.4 Russia's invasion of Ukraine sharply raised imported fuel, fertiliser and food prices, worsening Bangladesh's terms of trade and inflation.
2024 · S05 × 0.8 Mass student-led protests over job quotas escalated into a national uprising that toppled Sheikh Hasina and installed an interim government amid violence.

The pathway: what it prioritised, period by period

1997–2001 · build · 5% each The first Awami League government prioritised food security, garment export growth and basic services after the return to elected rule. (Agriculture & Food Infrastructure, Export Capability & Sophistication, Foundational Education, Population Health, Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure)
2002–2006 · partner · 2% each The BNP-led coalition channelled public and donor finance into roads, power and garment-sector expansion, with private investment taking the lead. (Transport Infrastructure, Energy Infrastructure, Industrial & Sectoral Base, Export Capability & Sophistication)
2007–2010 · build · 5% each The caretaker emergency pushed anti-corruption and administrative reforms, followed by the Awami League's Digital Bangladesh and power-generation drives. (Communications & Digital Infrastructure, Government Effectiveness & Public Administration, Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption, Energy Infrastructure, Foundational Education)
2011–2018 · build · 5% each Mega-infrastructure such as the Padma Bridge, rapid power-plant construction, industrial zones and social safety nets dominated the Awami League's second term. (Transport Infrastructure, Energy Infrastructure, Industrial & Sectoral Base, Export Capability & Sophistication, Social Infrastructure)
2019–2026 · build · 5% each The later Awami League years pursued a digital services push, energy transition, pandemic health response and preparation for LDC graduation. (Communications & Digital Infrastructure, Energy Infrastructure, Health System Capability, Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure, Trade Policy & Market Access)

Reconstruction notes (deepseek-v4-pro): The main uncertainty is the relative scoring of Bangladesh's large but low-productivity agricultural and garment sectors against the global scale; international data for 1996 are patchy. National capability estimates are also blurred by the informal economy and the dominant role of NGOs in health, education and microfinance, which public statistics understate. Mapping Bangladesh's repeated floods and political crises to the event library requires judgement about severity relative to the scenario's severe case.

Report

Written from the simulation record by the loop's narrator. Every figure names the query it came from, in square brackets.

Batch cycle-003. Model 0.2.0, graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.1. 30 simulations, seeds 1 to 30; probes on 10. Every figure is a distribution over simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values; it shows what the model implies under these settings, not what will happen. Other nations are frozen at their 2026 ratings. No reconstructed historical data is used in this experiment.

Headline

Bangladesh played 30 rounds from 1996 under the scripted method, with scripted events, 30 times. Its capability index moved from 6.47 to a median of 5.38 (−1.09), with 90 per cent of simulations between 5.37 and 5.38 [experiment_objectives].

Starting position

In 1996 the nation ranks 90 on the index against the frozen field, holds 0 of nine domains at Tier 1 and has a tier rank of 101. Its base income is 138 credits a year, calibrated so that its 2026 position is affordable with headroom for investment.

What was decided

A simulation spent a median of 664 credits on moves. The five groups that took most were Energy Infrastructure (build, 118 credits, 17.8 per cent); Communications & Digital Infrastructure (build, 70 credits, 10.6 per cent); Export Capability & Sophistication (build, 69 credits, 10.5 per cent); Foundational Education (build, 59 credits, 8.9 per cent); Transport Infrastructure (build, 48 credits, 7.2 per cent) [experiment_decisions_by_group]. By mode: build 92 per cent, partner 8 per cent [experiment_decisions_by_group]. Concentration of spending (HHI) had a median of 0.105, and the most repeated action appeared in 67 per cent of rounds.

The leading domain by period: rounds 1 to 5, Human Capital; rounds 6 to 10, Strategic Infrastructure; rounds 11 to 15, Strategic Infrastructure; rounds 16 to 20, Strategic Infrastructure; rounds 21 to 25, Strategic Infrastructure; rounds 26 to 30, Strategic Infrastructure [experiment_spend_by_period].

What the world did

A median simulation saw 6 shocks and 0 upside events. The most damaging per firing were S07 (30 firings in 30 simulations, −21.4 points each); S05 (60 firings in 30 simulations, −20.0 points each); S10 (30 firings in 30 simulations, −18.6 points each) [experiment_shocks].

The groups that lost most to shocks, per simulation: Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance −3.47; Monetary & Currency Capability −3.16; Trade Facilitation & Logistics −2.67; Force Generation & Mobilisation −2.53 [experiment_shock_damage_by_group].

The edges that carried most change through the graph, per simulation: Energy Infrastructure to Advanced Manufacturing (+0.44 points); Energy Infrastructure to Industrial & Sectoral Base (+0.41 points); Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance to Social Infrastructure (−0.49 points) [experiment_propagation_by_edge].

Where it ended

At 2026 the median rank is 112 (5th to 95th percentile 112 to 112), the median count of Tier 1 domains 0 (0 to 0) and the median tier rank 87; the resilient score, the mean score sum over simulations, is 387 [experiment_objectives].

Why

Without shocks the index ends +1.633 higher on average, so the shocks cost about 1.633 index points [experiment_probe_attribution].

Holding instead of following this method changes the index by −0.519: that is the method's worth against doing nothing [experiment_probe_attribution].

Removing any single one of the five largest actions changes the index by between −0.003 and +0.001, for example 1997 build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure (7 credits) [experiment_probe_attribution]. The largest actions by credits come late, when income is highest, and are rarely the most valuable.

Removing the largest shock of a simulation raises the index by +0.329 on average [experiment_probe_attribution].

The replay probe reproduces the simulations exactly (index change 0.000000), so the attributions are clean [experiment_probe_attribution].

Surprises

same_action (warn): the most repeated move (group and mode) appears in a median 67% of rounds.

The simulation furthest from the median (seed 25) ends −0.01 from it, with 6 shocks and 0 upside events [experiment_outlier_simulations].

Comparison

This is the baseline (hold) experiment, or there is none for this nation in the batch.

Against history: from a reconstructed index of 6.47 the model ends at 5.38, where the 2026 ratings put it at 6.73. Group scores miss by 1.61 points on average, against 0.86 for assuming nothing changed (skill −0.87); the change in each domain has the right sign in 22 per cent of domains. Furthest below history: information and influence (−2.27); furthest above: critical technology (−0.26) [experiment_against_history]. The starting position is reconstructed, so part of the error is the reconstruction's.

What each decision and shock was worth

Counterfactual probes on the first 10 seeds: the same simulations with one thing changed, paired seed by seed. A removed decision or shock is taken out and the other decisions replayed unchanged, so the difference is that item's worth.

Probe	Index	Score sum	For example
Hold instead of the method	−0.519	−39.7
No shocks	+1.633	+113.1
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0
Without the 1st largest decision	+0.001	+0.1	1997 build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure (7 credits)
Without the 2nd largest decision	−0.001	+0.1	1997 build Export Capability & Sophistication (7 credits)
Without the 3rd largest decision	−0.003	−0.2	1997 build Foundational Education (7 credits)
Without the 4th largest decision	−0.002	−0.1	1997 build Population Health (7 credits)
Without the 5th largest decision	+0.001	+0.1	1998 build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure (7 credits)
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.329	+22.6	2024 S05 (-21.8 points)
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.329	+23.2	1998 S07 (-21.4 points)
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.287	+19.8	2020 S10 (-18.7 points)

Simulations

Three simulations told round by round, each on its own page: the one nearest the median index at the horizon, and those nearest the 10th and the 90th percentile. Every one of the 30 is listed with its outcome on the simulations page.

All 30 simulations

Events

How often each shock and upside event began across the simulations. Shocks come from the ten downside scenarios and upside events from the ten upside ones, at their yearly likelihood.

Event	Kind	Simulations	Mean round	Points
Legitimacy rupture S05	Shock	100 per cent	19.5	−20.1
Breadbasket failure S06	Shock	100 per cent	19.0	−10.1
Core disaster S07	Shock	100 per cent	2.0	−21.4
Severe pandemic S10	Shock	100 per cent	24.0	−18.6

Groups across simulations

Every capability group: its position, and its median and spread at the horizon across the simulations, with what the method spent on it.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	1996	2026	Change	Levels invested	Credits
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	4.99	8.95 8.93 to 8.97	+3.96	5.71	131
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	7.19	10.80 10.72 to 10.87	+3.61	5.71	82
Foundational Education	Human Capital	7.74	10.07 10.02 to 10.10	+2.33	3.92	59
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	8.62	10.35 10.33 to 10.38	+1.73	3.30	71
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	7.99	9.72 9.59 to 9.82	+1.73	3.52	61
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	7.04	8.06 7.98 to 8.14	+1.02	2.95	61
Population Health	Human Capital	7.08	7.40 7.36 to 7.42	+0.32	2.02	34
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	7.40	7.61 7.58 to 7.64	+0.21	1.44	25
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	0.00	0.00 0.00 to 0.00	0.00	0.00	0
Health System Capability	Human Capital	7.82	7.80 7.75 to 7.85	−0.02	1.75	45
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	1.06	0.89 0.88 to 0.89	−0.17	0.00	0
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	1.30	1.09 1.08 to 1.09	−0.21	0.00	0
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	1.32	1.10 1.09 to 1.11	−0.22	0.00	0
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	1.62	1.32 1.31 to 1.33	−0.30	0.00	0
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	2.25	1.91 1.90 to 1.92	−0.34	0.00	0
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	2.55	2.12 2.11 to 2.15	−0.43	0.00	0
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	3.05	2.58 2.57 to 2.59	−0.47	0.00	0
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	3.48	3.00 2.99 to 3.00	−0.48	0.00	0
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	8.10	7.56 7.52 to 7.60	−0.54	1.41	34
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	6.45	5.79 5.73 to 5.83	−0.66	0.00	0
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	4.93	4.24 4.22 to 4.26	−0.69	0.00	0
Advanced Education	Human Capital	7.64	6.93 6.83 to 7.04	−0.71	0.00	0
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	7.19	6.42 6.38 to 6.46	−0.77	0.00	0
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	3.80	3.01 2.96 to 3.05	−0.79	0.00	0
Space Operations	National Security	3.50	2.69 2.68 to 2.71	−0.81	0.00	0
Maritime Power	National Security	3.72	2.87 2.85 to 2.88	−0.85	0.00	0
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	4.54	3.67 3.65 to 3.71	−0.87	0.00	0
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	7.39	6.48 6.34 to 6.63	−0.91	0.00	0
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	6.40	5.48 5.47 to 5.49	−0.92	0.00	0
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	4.27	3.34 3.33 to 3.35	−0.93	0.00	0
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	5.20	4.18 4.16 to 4.20	−1.02	0.00	0
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	7.20	6.18 6.17 to 6.18	−1.02	0.00	0
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	6.54	5.51 5.50 to 5.54	−1.03	0.00	0
Air Power	National Security	4.67	3.60 3.59 to 3.62	−1.07	0.00	0
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	5.70	4.49 4.47 to 4.51	−1.21	0.00	0
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	5.75	4.53 4.51 to 4.54	−1.22	0.00	0
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	7.34	6.11 6.08 to 6.15	−1.23	0.00	0
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	9.40	8.15 8.11 to 8.17	−1.25	1.29	25
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	4.62	3.36 3.30 to 3.38	−1.26	0.00	0
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	5.75	4.48 4.46 to 4.51	−1.27	0.00	0
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	6.14	4.85 4.82 to 4.88	−1.29	0.00	0
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	6.82	5.50 5.41 to 5.57	−1.32	0.59	13
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	6.71	5.39 5.34 to 5.43	−1.32	0.00	0
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	6.91	5.57 5.55 to 5.60	−1.34	0.00	0
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	6.78	5.41 5.38 to 5.44	−1.37	0.00	0
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	8.41	7.01 6.99 to 7.04	−1.40	0.00	0
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	6.06	4.63 4.57 to 4.68	−1.43	0.00	0
Land Power	National Security	6.12	4.68 4.63 to 4.72	−1.44	0.00	0
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	7.02	5.53 5.52 to 5.55	−1.49	0.00	0
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	7.76	6.24 6.18 to 6.35	−1.52	1.12	24
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	6.39	4.86 4.84 to 4.87	−1.53	0.00	0
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	7.33	5.79 5.79 to 5.81	−1.54	0.00	0
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	6.34	4.76 4.74 to 4.79	−1.58	0.00	0
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	6.27	4.67 4.63 to 4.71	−1.60	0.00	0
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	7.24	5.63 5.59 to 5.69	−1.61	0.00	0
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	7.40	5.77 5.75 to 5.80	−1.63	0.00	0
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	9.27	7.45 7.34 to 7.52	−1.82	0.00	0
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	7.86	6.02 6.00 to 6.04	−1.84	0.00	0
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	7.56	5.67 5.64 to 5.71	−1.89	0.00	0
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	9.22	7.33 7.28 to 7.36	−1.89	0.00	0
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	8.43	6.52 6.52 to 6.53	−1.91	0.00	0
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	6.72	4.68 4.66 to 4.71	−2.04	0.00	0
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	7.38	5.32 5.29 to 5.34	−2.06	0.00	0
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	8.01	5.93 5.92 to 5.94	−2.08	0.00	0
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	8.54	6.44 6.39 to 6.49	−2.10	0.00	0
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	5.52	3.42 3.40 to 3.43	−2.10	0.00	0
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	8.66	6.49 6.46 to 6.55	−2.17	0.00	0
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	8.57	6.29 6.23 to 6.35	−2.28	0.00	0
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	7.39	4.91 4.86 to 4.95	−2.48	0.00	0
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	8.30	5.81 5.79 to 5.82	−2.49	0.00	0
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	8.54	5.59 5.47 to 5.69	−2.95	0.00	0
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	8.31	4.88 4.80 to 4.96	−3.43	0.00	0
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	7.76	4.08 4.04 to 4.12	−3.68	0.00	0

Checks

The automated checks run on this experiment before anything was written about it. A warning is a candidate finding for the improvement loop.

passcredits_conservedlargest gap between credits in and credits accounted for: 2.8e-14
passscores_in_boundsscores range 0.000 to 12.000
passno_nans0 missing values in the trajectory and objectives
passprobe_replay_reproducesthe recorded moves played back reproduce the simulation to within 0.0e+00 points (10 simulations)
passledger_balancesthe edge ledger sums to the propagated change to within 1.0e-06 points
passmove_without_shocklargest one-year move in a group with no shock landing: 0.48 points; 0% of simulations have one above 3
passtier_jumplargest gain in one domain within five years: 2 tiers (0 simulations above 2); tiers are reported, not an objective
passall_tier1_from_outside_top10starting rank 90; 0 simulations reach Tier 1 in all nine domains
passsaturation_high0% of simulations end with a group at 20 that did not start there (median 0 groups)
passsaturation_low0% of simulations end with a group at 0 that did not start there (median 0 groups)
passspend_concentrationmedian concentration of spending across groups (HHI) 0.105; most funded group hard.strategic_infrastructure.energy_infrastructure
warnsame_actionthe most repeated move (group and mode) appears in a median 67% of rounds
passregression_index_p50index_p50 moved 29.0% since cycle-002 (4.17 to 5.38); versions changed (0.1.0 to 0.1.1, graph 0.2.0 to 0.2.0)
passregression_score_sum_p50score_sum_p50 moved 29.1% since cycle-002 (299.69 to 386.97); versions changed (0.1.0 to 0.1.1, graph 0.2.0 to 0.2.0)

Settings and versions

Experiment cycle-003.e4-bgd. Every simulation records the model, graph and parameter versions, the scenario, the method and its seed, so it can be reproduced exactly.

Nation: Bangladesh (BGD)
Position: A reconstructed 1996 position, aligned to the Index's scale
Method: Scripted. Actions fixed in advance by the experiment: for a backcast, the nation's historical pathway.
Scenario: Scripted events: Core disaster in year 2, Legitimacy rupture in year 11, Breadbasket failure in year 12, Severe pandemic in year 24, Breadbasket failure in year 26, Legitimacy rupture in year 28
Objective: Capability index, the primary objective the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it
Horizon: 30 rounds, 1996 to 2026
Simulations: 30 seeds, 1 to 30. Every method in the batch faces the same draws for the same seed.
Graph elasticities: Drawn for each simulation, uniformly within each edge’s bracket
Income: Base credits 138.3 a round, moving with the economic groups
Versions: Model 0.2.0, Capability Dependency Graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.1
Batch: Backcast 1996-2026 (cycle-003), cycle 3 of the improvement loop
Runtime: 6.8 seconds in all; 1665 microseconds a round

Not a forecast: Every figure is a distribution over the simulations of a structural model, reported to compare methods and test the model. None is a prediction of what a nation will do or become.
Structural parameters: Costs, decay, vulnerability and credits are structural seed values with low or medium confidence, set by domain with single-group exceptions. Five groups have no defensible value in a single-nation model and are flagged in the parameter tables.
Other nations are frozen: One nation is simulated at a time. Every other nation stays at its 2026 rating, so rank and tiers are measured against a still field; where the simulated nation rises past others their own tiers are not re-sorted.
Starting depth and mode are defaults: The position is the National Capability Index ratings. How institutionalised each capability is, and how much was built, bought or partnered, have no data behind them yet and start from structural defaults.
Credits are calibrated, not measured: Each nation’s income is set so that its position is affordable with headroom that rises with its fiscal capacity. It is not yet fiscal capacity as a share of GDP.