A poor simulation (10th percentile) · cycle-003.e4-bgd

Simulation 21

Bangladesh, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 21: a poor simulation (10th percentile) of the experiment's 30. Capability index 6.47 at the 1996 position, 5.37 in 2026; 132 actions over 30 rounds and 6 shocks.

Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 21

The experiment · The other representative simulations: 24 (median simulation), 18 (a good simulation (90th percentile))

Outcome

From the 1996 position to 2026.

Capability index: 5.37 (−1.10); From 6.47
Rank by index: 112; From 90
Domains at Tier 1: 0; From 0
Events: 6 shocks; 0 upside events

Trajectory by domain

The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.

ShockUpside event

Capability index by round

Pathway, round by round

Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.

Round	Decision	Events	Index
1997	Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 7 Build Export Capability & Sophistication 7 Build Foundational Education 7 Build Population Health 7 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 2		6.48 +0.007
1998	Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 7 Build Export Capability & Sophistication 7 Build Foundational Education 7 Build Population Health 7 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 2	Core disaster	6.18 −0.295
1999	Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 7 Build Export Capability & Sophistication 7 Build Foundational Education 7 Build Population Health 7 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 0		6.19 +0.012
2000	Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 7 Build Export Capability & Sophistication 7 Build Foundational Education 7 Build Population Health 7 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 1		6.21 +0.012
2001	Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 7 Build Export Capability & Sophistication 7 Build Foundational Education 7 Build Population Health 7 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 1		6.22 +0.015
2002	Partner Transport Infrastructure 3 Partner Energy Infrastructure 3 Partner Industrial & Sectoral Base 3 Partner Export Capability & Sophistication 3		6.23 +0.013
2003	Partner Transport Infrastructure 3 Partner Energy Infrastructure 3 Partner Industrial & Sectoral Base 3 Partner Export Capability & Sophistication 3		6.25 +0.012
2004	Partner Transport Infrastructure 3 Partner Energy Infrastructure 3 Partner Industrial & Sectoral Base 3 Partner Export Capability & Sophistication 3		6.26 +0.014
2005	Partner Transport Infrastructure 3 Partner Energy Infrastructure 3 Partner Industrial & Sectoral Base 3 Partner Export Capability & Sophistication 3		6.27 +0.012
2006	Partner Transport Infrastructure 3 Partner Energy Infrastructure 3 Partner Industrial & Sectoral Base 3 Partner Export Capability & Sophistication 3		6.28 +0.010
2007	Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 7 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 7 Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 7 Build Energy Infrastructure 7 Build Foundational Education 7	Legitimacy rupture	6.03 −0.257
2008	Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 7 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 7 Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 7 Build Energy Infrastructure 7 Build Foundational Education 7	Breadbasket failure	5.87 −0.156
2009	Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 6 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 6 Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 6 Build Energy Infrastructure 6 Build Foundational Education 6		5.88 +0.007
2010	Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 6 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 6 Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 6 Build Energy Infrastructure 6 Build Foundational Education 6		5.89 +0.010
2011	Build Transport Infrastructure 6 Build Energy Infrastructure 6 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 6 Build Export Capability & Sophistication 6 Build Social Infrastructure 6		5.90 +0.016
2012	Build Transport Infrastructure 6 Build Energy Infrastructure 6 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 6 Build Export Capability & Sophistication 6 Build Social Infrastructure 6		5.92 +0.019
2013	Build Transport Infrastructure 6 Build Energy Infrastructure 6 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 6 Build Export Capability & Sophistication 6 Build Social Infrastructure 6		5.95 +0.023
2014	Build Transport Infrastructure 6 Build Energy Infrastructure 6 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 6 Build Export Capability & Sophistication 6 Build Social Infrastructure 6		5.97 +0.023
2015	Build Transport Infrastructure 6 Build Energy Infrastructure 6 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 6 Build Export Capability & Sophistication 4		5.99 +0.019
2016	Build Transport Infrastructure 6 Build Energy Infrastructure 6 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 6 Build Export Capability & Sophistication 3		6.00 +0.018
2017	Build Transport Infrastructure 6 Build Energy Infrastructure 6 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 6 Build Export Capability & Sophistication 2		6.02 +0.016
2018	Build Transport Infrastructure 6 Build Energy Infrastructure 6 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 6 Build Export Capability & Sophistication 2		6.04 +0.016
2019	Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 6 Build Energy Infrastructure 6 Build Health System Capability 6 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 2		6.05 +0.015
2020	Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 6 Build Energy Infrastructure 6 Build Health System Capability 6 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 1	Severe pandemic	5.79 −0.259
2021	Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 6 Build Energy Infrastructure 6 Build Health System Capability 6 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 1		5.80 +0.007
2022	Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 6 Build Energy Infrastructure 6 Build Health System Capability 6 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 1	Breadbasket failure	5.68 −0.121
2023	Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 6 Build Energy Infrastructure 6 Build Health System Capability 6 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 1		5.69 +0.005
2024	Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 6 Build Energy Infrastructure 6 Build Health System Capability 6 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 1	Legitimacy rupture	5.37 −0.312
2025	Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 6 Build Energy Infrastructure 6 Build Health System Capability 5		5.37 0.000
2026	Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 5 Build Energy Infrastructure 5 Build Health System Capability 5 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 1		5.37 −0.001

Credits

What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.

Tiers by round

Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.

Domain	1996					2001					2006					2011					2016					2021					2026
Critical Technology	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12
Strategic Infrastructure	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	8	8	8	7	7	7	7	7	7
National Security	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8
Human Capital	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	14	14	14	14	14	14	14
Information & Influence	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	13	13	13
Governance & Integrity	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	17	17	17	17	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	18	18	18
Financial Strength	20	20	21	21	21	21	21	21	20	20	20	21	22	22	22	22	22	22	22	22	22	22	22	22	23	23	24	24	24	24	24
Production & Innovation	16	16	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	16	16	17	17	17	17	17	17	16	16	16	15	15	14	14	14	14	15	15	15	15	15
Trade & Investment	13	13	13	12	12	11	11	11	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	9	9	9	10	10	10	10	10	10	10

Probes

What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.

Probe	Index	Score sum
Hold instead of the method	−0.519	−39.7
No shocks	+1.633	+113.1
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0
Without the 1st largest decision	+0.001	+0.1
Without the 2nd largest decision	−0.001	+0.1
Without the 3rd largest decision	−0.003	−0.2
Without the 4th largest decision	−0.002	−0.1
Without the 5th largest decision	+0.001	+0.1
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.329	+22.6
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.329	+23.2
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.287	+19.8

Every group over the simulation

Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	1996	2026	Change	Invested	Events	Graph
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	4.99	8.95	+3.96	+5.70	−1.61	−0.12
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	7.19	10.72	+3.53	+5.64	−2.05	−0.05
Foundational Education	Human Capital	7.74	10.05	+2.31	+3.92	−1.43	−0.19
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	8.62	10.38	+1.76	+3.29	−1.47	−0.06
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	7.99	9.70	+1.71	+3.51	−2.14	+0.34
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	7.04	7.97	+0.93	+2.96	−1.62	−0.40
Population Health	Human Capital	7.08	7.41	+0.33	+2.02	−1.53	−0.16
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	7.40	7.59	+0.19	+1.44	−1.08	−0.17
Health System Capability	Human Capital	7.82	7.85	+0.03	+1.75	−1.51	−0.21
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	−0.01
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	1.06	0.89	−0.17	0.00	−0.15	−0.03
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	1.30	1.08	−0.22	0.00	−0.18	−0.03
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	1.32	1.09	−0.23	0.00	−0.18	−0.04
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	1.62	1.34	−0.28	0.00	−0.30	+0.03
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	2.25	1.91	−0.34	0.00	−0.31	−0.03
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	2.55	2.12	−0.43	0.00	−0.35	−0.07
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	3.05	2.58	−0.47	0.00	−0.42	−0.06
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	3.48	2.99	−0.49	0.00	−0.48	−0.01
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	8.10	7.57	−0.53	+1.41	−1.74	−0.20
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	6.45	5.82	−0.63	0.00	−0.90	+0.27
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	4.93	4.23	−0.70	0.00	−0.66	−0.04
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	3.80	3.02	−0.78	0.00	−0.64	−0.14
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	7.19	6.41	−0.78	0.00	−0.99	+0.20
Advanced Education	Human Capital	7.64	6.83	−0.81	0.00	−1.04	+0.23
Space Operations	National Security	3.50	2.69	−0.81	0.00	−0.72	−0.09
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	4.54	3.69	−0.85	0.00	−0.76	−0.09
Maritime Power	National Security	3.72	2.84	−0.88	0.00	−0.76	−0.12
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	4.27	3.34	−0.93	0.00	−0.88	−0.05
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	6.40	5.47	−0.93	0.00	−0.88	−0.06
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	7.39	6.40	−0.99	0.00	−1.22	+0.23
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	5.20	4.20	−1.00	0.00	−0.93	−0.07
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	7.20	6.18	−1.02	0.00	−1.02	0.00
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	6.54	5.50	−1.04	0.00	−0.89	−0.15
Air Power	National Security	4.67	3.60	−1.07	0.00	−0.94	−0.12
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	5.70	4.50	−1.20	0.00	−1.15	−0.05
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	5.75	4.53	−1.22	0.00	−1.16	−0.06
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	7.34	6.12	−1.22	0.00	−1.43	+0.22
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	4.62	3.38	−1.24	0.00	−1.07	−0.17
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	5.75	4.49	−1.26	0.00	−1.10	−0.16
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	6.82	5.55	−1.27	+0.57	−1.69	−0.15
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	9.40	8.11	−1.29	+1.29	−2.47	−0.11
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	6.14	4.84	−1.30	0.00	−1.23	−0.08
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	6.78	5.43	−1.35	0.00	−1.39	+0.04
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	6.71	5.34	−1.37	0.00	−1.28	−0.08
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	8.41	7.03	−1.38	0.00	−1.38	−0.01
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	6.91	5.53	−1.38	0.00	−1.32	−0.05
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	6.06	4.64	−1.42	0.00	−1.63	+0.21
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	7.02	5.56	−1.46	0.00	−1.42	−0.04
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	7.76	6.29	−1.47	+1.11	−2.13	−0.45
Land Power	National Security	6.12	4.64	−1.48	0.00	−1.20	−0.29
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	6.39	4.85	−1.54	0.00	−1.46	−0.08
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	7.33	5.79	−1.54	0.00	−1.47	−0.07
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	6.34	4.76	−1.58	0.00	−1.48	−0.10
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	6.27	4.67	−1.60	0.00	−1.41	−0.20
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	7.24	5.62	−1.62	0.00	−1.36	−0.26
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	7.40	5.77	−1.63	0.00	−1.67	+0.04
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	7.86	6.04	−1.82	0.00	−1.73	−0.09
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	7.56	5.67	−1.89	0.00	−1.70	−0.19
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	9.22	7.33	−1.89	0.00	−1.66	−0.23
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	8.43	6.52	−1.91	0.00	−1.90	−0.01
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	9.27	7.31	−1.96	0.00	−1.45	−0.51
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	7.38	5.35	−2.03	0.00	−1.96	−0.07
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	8.54	6.50	−2.04	0.00	−1.89	−0.15
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	6.72	4.68	−2.04	0.00	−1.91	−0.14
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	8.01	5.94	−2.07	0.00	−2.02	−0.04
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	5.52	3.43	−2.09	0.00	−2.04	−0.05
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	8.66	6.44	−2.22	0.00	−1.89	−0.32
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	8.57	6.34	−2.23	0.00	−2.15	−0.08
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	7.39	4.88	−2.51	0.00	−2.67	+0.16
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	8.30	5.79	−2.51	0.00	−2.43	−0.09
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	8.54	5.53	−3.01	0.00	−2.52	−0.49
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	8.31	4.82	−3.49	0.00	−3.14	−0.36
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	7.76	4.08	−3.68	0.00	−3.47	−0.21

Seed 21 of experiment cycle-003.e4-bgd. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.