Simulation 17
China, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 17: a good simulation (90th percentile) of the experiment's 30. Capability index 9.13 at the 1996 position, 6.94 in 2026; 126 actions over 30 rounds and 8 shocks.
Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 17
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 23 (median simulation), 25 (a poor simulation (10th percentile))
Outcome
From the 1996 position to 2026.
- Capability index
- 6.94 (−2.18)
- From 9.13
- Rank by index
- 82
- From 55
- Domains at Tier 1
- 0
- From 0
- Events
- 8 shocks
- 1 upside event
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1997 |
| Global funding seizure | 8.99 −0.134 |
| 1998 |
| Core disaster | 8.48 −0.507 |
| 1999 |
| 8.51 +0.026 | |
| 2000 |
| 8.53 +0.020 | |
| 2001 |
| Market access opening | 8.60 +0.068 |
| 2002 |
| 8.67 +0.070 | |
| 2003 |
| Severe pandemic | 8.48 −0.183 |
| 2004 |
| 8.52 +0.036 | |
| 2005 |
| 8.55 +0.029 | |
| 2006 |
| 8.58 +0.034 | |
| 2007 |
| 8.61 +0.027 | |
| 2008 |
| Core disasterGlobal funding seizure | 7.95 −0.659 |
| 2009 |
| 7.97 +0.014 | |
| 2010 |
| 7.97 +0.001 | |
| 2011 |
| 7.98 +0.017 | |
| 2012 |
| 8.00 +0.014 | |
| 2013 |
| 8.01 +0.012 | |
| 2014 |
| 8.03 +0.019 | |
| 2015 |
| Global funding seizure | 7.91 −0.120 |
| 2016 |
| 7.92 +0.011 | |
| 2017 |
| 7.93 +0.012 | |
| 2018 |
| Trade bloc rupture | 7.82 −0.113 |
| 2019 | No actions | 7.70 −0.121 | |
| 2020 | No actions | Severe pandemic | 6.99 −0.708 |
| 2021 |
| 6.98 −0.010 | |
| 2022 |
| 6.96 −0.015 | |
| 2023 |
| 6.95 −0.010 | |
| 2024 |
| 6.95 −0.008 | |
| 2025 |
| 6.94 −0.006 | |
| 2026 |
| 6.94 +0.002 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 1996 | 2001 | 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | 2021 | 2026 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 |
| National Security | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Human Capital | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| Information & Influence | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 |
| Governance & Integrity | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 |
| Financial Strength | 15 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 17 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 21 |
| Production & Innovation | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 |
| Trade & Investment | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −0.727 | −56.4 | 0.00 |
| No shocks | +3.238 | +226.4 | 0.00 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | +0.007 | +0.3 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | +0.006 | +0.2 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | +0.003 | +0.2 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | +0.002 | +0.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | +0.007 | +0.3 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.642 | +45.3 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.617 | +44.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.537 | +38.6 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 1996 | 2026 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 3.62 | 7.11 | +3.49 | +5.01 | −0.02 | −1.51 | 0.00 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 8.61 | 11.47 | +2.86 | +3.85 | −0.03 | −1.73 | +0.77 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 10.94 | 12.68 | +1.74 | +6.21 | −0.02 | −4.05 | −0.40 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 9.81 | 11.40 | +1.59 | +4.95 | −0.01 | −2.97 | −0.37 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.00 | 12.10 | +1.10 | +4.79 | −0.01 | −2.97 | −0.70 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 9.29 | 10.00 | +0.71 | +2.96 | −0.01 | −1.72 | −0.53 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 5.44 | 6.00 | +0.56 | +2.02 | −0.02 | −1.49 | +0.04 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 9.35 | 9.90 | +0.55 | +2.63 | −0.03 | −1.83 | −0.21 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 4.78 | 5.30 | +0.52 | +2.19 | −0.02 | −1.65 | 0.00 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 5.16 | 4.94 | −0.22 | +0.87 | −0.01 | −1.04 | −0.02 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 5.24 | 4.97 | −0.27 | +0.65 | −0.01 | −1.01 | +0.11 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 9.93 | 9.47 | −0.46 | +4.42 | −0.02 | −4.43 | −0.43 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 5.08 | 4.38 | −0.70 | +0.28 | −0.01 | −0.99 | +0.02 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 11.12 | 10.25 | −0.87 | +3.75 | −0.02 | −4.68 | +0.08 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 9.77 | 8.85 | −0.92 | +1.22 | −0.01 | −2.15 | +0.02 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 5.32 | 4.31 | −1.01 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −1.03 | +0.04 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 6.14 | 5.04 | −1.10 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −0.96 | −0.14 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 6.79 | 5.68 | −1.11 | +1.95 | −0.02 | −3.03 | −0.01 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 7.13 | 5.99 | −1.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.11 | −0.03 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 5.93 | 4.76 | −1.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.04 | −0.12 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 6.55 | 5.33 | −1.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.16 | −0.06 |
| Air Power | National Security | 6.32 | 5.07 | −1.25 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −0.98 | −0.27 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 8.17 | 6.86 | −1.31 | 0.00 | −0.02 | −1.26 | −0.03 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 7.02 | 5.71 | −1.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.24 | −0.07 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 8.12 | 6.78 | −1.34 | 0.00 | −0.02 | −1.24 | −0.09 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 8.20 | 6.78 | −1.42 | 0.00 | −0.02 | −1.25 | −0.15 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.01 | 8.46 | −1.55 | +1.02 | −0.01 | −2.18 | −0.38 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 10.47 | 8.85 | −1.62 | 0.00 | −0.02 | −1.53 | −0.06 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 8.25 | 6.61 | −1.64 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −1.50 | −0.14 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 10.61 | 8.94 | −1.67 | 0.00 | −0.02 | −1.53 | −0.12 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 9.27 | 7.60 | −1.67 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −1.54 | −0.13 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 8.40 | 6.64 | −1.76 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.45 | −0.30 |
| Land Power | National Security | 9.86 | 8.04 | −1.82 | 0.00 | −0.02 | −1.45 | −0.35 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 9.86 | 8.02 | −1.84 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.79 | −0.05 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 8.52 | 6.61 | −1.91 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −1.52 | −0.38 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 11.30 | 9.26 | −2.04 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −1.80 | −0.24 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 9.40 | 7.33 | −2.07 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −1.68 | −0.38 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 6.61 | 4.49 | −2.12 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −1.56 | −0.56 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.37 | 8.13 | −2.24 | 0.00 | −0.02 | −2.09 | −0.13 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 8.29 | 5.97 | −2.32 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −2.00 | −0.31 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 8.85 | 6.53 | −2.32 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −2.13 | −0.18 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 10.16 | 7.84 | −2.32 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −1.79 | −0.52 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 8.04 | 5.58 | −2.46 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −2.50 | +0.05 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 10.75 | 8.17 | −2.58 | 0.00 | −0.02 | −2.53 | −0.03 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 12.46 | 9.82 | −2.64 | 0.00 | −0.02 | −1.52 | −1.10 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.73 | 10.04 | −2.69 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −2.15 | −0.52 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.84 | 8.02 | −2.82 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −2.10 | −0.70 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 9.18 | 6.28 | −2.90 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.19 | −0.70 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 8.64 | 5.66 | −2.98 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −2.64 | −0.32 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 8.21 | 5.13 | −3.08 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −2.86 | −0.22 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 8.97 | 5.88 | −3.09 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −3.03 | −0.05 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 9.21 | 6.09 | −3.12 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −3.07 | −0.04 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 10.97 | 7.84 | −3.13 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −2.56 | −0.56 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.28 | 8.11 | −3.17 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −2.47 | −0.70 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 9.94 | 6.72 | −3.22 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −3.10 | −0.12 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 9.52 | 6.20 | −3.32 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −2.88 | −0.43 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 10.72 | 7.38 | −3.34 | +1.80 | −0.02 | −4.75 | −0.38 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 10.28 | 6.88 | −3.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.80 | −0.60 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 11.63 | 8.17 | −3.46 | 0.00 | −0.02 | −3.05 | −0.39 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 9.35 | 5.81 | −3.54 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −2.81 | −0.72 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 11.06 | 7.52 | −3.54 | +1.78 | −0.01 | −4.87 | −0.44 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 9.75 | 6.17 | −3.58 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −3.21 | −0.36 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 8.98 | 5.33 | −3.65 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −3.64 | 0.00 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 11.98 | 8.31 | −3.67 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −3.22 | −0.45 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 9.42 | 5.67 | −3.75 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −3.63 | −0.12 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 9.49 | 5.64 | −3.85 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −3.64 | −0.20 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 10.50 | 6.23 | −4.27 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −3.69 | −0.56 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.03 | 5.73 | −4.30 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −3.34 | −0.95 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 10.76 | 6.13 | −4.63 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −4.38 | −0.24 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 9.45 | 4.80 | −4.65 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −4.49 | −0.16 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 9.92 | 5.11 | −4.81 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −4.25 | −0.55 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 9.59 | 3.98 | −5.61 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −5.11 | −0.50 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 10.77 | 5.06 | −5.71 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −5.75 | +0.05 |
Seed 17 of experiment cycle-003.e4-chn. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.