Simulation 23
China, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 23: median simulation of the experiment's 30. Capability index 9.13 at the 1996 position, 6.93 in 2026; 126 actions over 30 rounds and 8 shocks.
Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 23
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 25 (a poor simulation (10th percentile)), 17 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 1996 position to 2026.
- Capability index
- 6.93 (−2.20)
- From 9.13
- Rank by index
- 82
- From 55
- Domains at Tier 1
- 0
- From 0
- Events
- 8 shocks
- 1 upside event
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1997 |
| Global funding seizure | 8.99 −0.134 |
| 1998 |
| Core disaster | 8.48 −0.508 |
| 1999 |
| 8.51 +0.025 | |
| 2000 |
| 8.53 +0.020 | |
| 2001 |
| Market access opening | 8.60 +0.068 |
| 2002 |
| 8.67 +0.071 | |
| 2003 |
| Severe pandemic | 8.48 −0.183 |
| 2004 |
| 8.52 +0.036 | |
| 2005 |
| 8.55 +0.029 | |
| 2006 |
| 8.58 +0.033 | |
| 2007 |
| 8.61 +0.027 | |
| 2008 |
| Core disasterGlobal funding seizure | 7.95 −0.659 |
| 2009 |
| 7.96 +0.011 | |
| 2010 |
| 7.96 +0.001 | |
| 2011 |
| 7.98 +0.016 | |
| 2012 |
| 7.99 +0.014 | |
| 2013 |
| 8.01 +0.012 | |
| 2014 |
| 8.02 +0.019 | |
| 2015 |
| Global funding seizure | 7.90 −0.122 |
| 2016 |
| 7.91 +0.009 | |
| 2017 |
| 7.92 +0.011 | |
| 2018 |
| Trade bloc rupture | 7.81 −0.113 |
| 2019 | No actions | 7.69 −0.122 | |
| 2020 | No actions | Severe pandemic | 6.98 −0.711 |
| 2021 |
| 6.96 −0.011 | |
| 2022 |
| 6.95 −0.016 | |
| 2023 |
| 6.94 −0.010 | |
| 2024 |
| 6.93 −0.008 | |
| 2025 |
| 6.93 −0.006 | |
| 2026 |
| 6.93 +0.001 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 1996 | 2001 | 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | 2021 | 2026 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| National Security | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Human Capital | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| Information & Influence | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 |
| Governance & Integrity | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 |
| Financial Strength | 15 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 18 | 18 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 19 | 19 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 21 |
| Production & Innovation | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 |
| Trade & Investment | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −0.727 | −56.4 | 0.00 |
| No shocks | +3.238 | +226.4 | 0.00 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | +0.007 | +0.3 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | +0.006 | +0.2 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | +0.003 | +0.2 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | +0.002 | +0.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | +0.007 | +0.3 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.642 | +45.3 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.617 | +44.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.537 | +38.6 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 1996 | 2026 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 3.62 | 6.99 | +3.37 | +4.90 | −0.02 | −1.50 | −0.01 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 8.61 | 11.31 | +2.70 | +3.85 | −0.03 | −1.73 | +0.61 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 10.94 | 12.71 | +1.77 | +6.20 | −0.03 | −4.05 | −0.35 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 9.81 | 11.47 | +1.66 | +4.94 | −0.02 | −2.98 | −0.29 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.00 | 12.15 | +1.15 | +4.78 | −0.02 | −2.97 | −0.64 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 9.29 | 10.09 | +0.80 | +2.94 | −0.01 | −1.72 | −0.41 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 9.35 | 9.92 | +0.57 | +2.51 | −0.04 | −1.84 | −0.06 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 5.44 | 5.98 | +0.54 | +2.01 | −0.02 | −1.49 | +0.03 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 4.78 | 5.32 | +0.54 | +2.17 | −0.02 | −1.66 | +0.05 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 5.16 | 4.95 | −0.21 | +0.86 | −0.02 | −1.04 | −0.01 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 5.24 | 4.74 | −0.50 | +0.47 | −0.01 | −1.01 | +0.05 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 9.93 | 9.34 | −0.59 | +4.36 | −0.02 | −4.45 | −0.49 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 5.08 | 4.25 | −0.83 | +0.07 | −0.01 | −0.98 | +0.09 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 11.12 | 10.21 | −0.91 | +3.75 | −0.02 | −4.68 | +0.05 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 9.77 | 8.82 | −0.95 | +1.21 | −0.01 | −2.14 | 0.00 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 5.32 | 4.29 | −1.03 | 0.00 | −0.02 | −1.03 | +0.02 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 6.79 | 5.69 | −1.10 | +1.94 | −0.03 | −3.04 | +0.03 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 7.13 | 6.01 | −1.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.11 | −0.01 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 5.93 | 4.80 | −1.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.05 | −0.09 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 6.14 | 4.99 | −1.15 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −0.96 | −0.18 |
| Air Power | National Security | 6.32 | 5.10 | −1.22 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −0.98 | −0.23 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 6.55 | 5.32 | −1.23 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.16 | −0.07 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 8.12 | 6.78 | −1.34 | 0.00 | −0.02 | −1.24 | −0.08 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 7.02 | 5.67 | −1.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.24 | −0.11 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 8.17 | 6.81 | −1.36 | 0.00 | −0.02 | −1.25 | −0.08 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.01 | 8.47 | −1.54 | +1.02 | −0.01 | −2.18 | −0.36 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 8.20 | 6.66 | −1.54 | 0.00 | −0.02 | −1.24 | −0.28 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 10.61 | 9.00 | −1.61 | 0.00 | −0.02 | −1.54 | −0.04 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 8.25 | 6.61 | −1.64 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −1.50 | −0.14 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 10.47 | 8.83 | −1.64 | 0.00 | −0.02 | −1.53 | −0.08 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 9.27 | 7.58 | −1.69 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −1.54 | −0.14 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 8.40 | 6.66 | −1.74 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.46 | −0.28 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 9.86 | 8.03 | −1.83 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −1.79 | −0.04 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 8.52 | 6.58 | −1.94 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −1.53 | −0.41 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 6.61 | 4.66 | −1.95 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −1.59 | −0.35 |
| Land Power | National Security | 9.86 | 7.90 | −1.96 | 0.00 | −0.02 | −1.45 | −0.50 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 9.40 | 7.38 | −2.02 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −1.68 | −0.32 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 11.30 | 9.27 | −2.03 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −1.80 | −0.22 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.37 | 8.15 | −2.22 | 0.00 | −0.02 | −2.10 | −0.10 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 8.29 | 6.01 | −2.28 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −2.01 | −0.26 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 10.16 | 7.76 | −2.40 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −1.78 | −0.60 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 8.04 | 5.61 | −2.43 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −2.51 | +0.09 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 8.85 | 6.41 | −2.44 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −2.12 | −0.30 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 10.75 | 8.15 | −2.60 | 0.00 | −0.02 | −2.54 | −0.05 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.73 | 10.12 | −2.61 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −2.16 | −0.44 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.84 | 8.16 | −2.68 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −2.12 | −0.55 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 12.46 | 9.65 | −2.81 | 0.00 | −0.03 | −1.52 | −1.26 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 9.18 | 6.33 | −2.85 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −2.20 | −0.64 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 8.64 | 5.74 | −2.90 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −2.66 | −0.23 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 8.97 | 5.89 | −3.08 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −3.03 | −0.03 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 8.21 | 5.09 | −3.12 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −2.85 | −0.26 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 9.21 | 6.06 | −3.15 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −3.09 | −0.06 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 10.97 | 7.80 | −3.17 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −2.56 | −0.61 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 9.94 | 6.68 | −3.26 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −3.10 | −0.14 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 11.63 | 8.32 | −3.31 | 0.00 | −0.02 | −3.07 | −0.23 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 10.72 | 7.38 | −3.34 | +1.80 | −0.02 | −4.75 | −0.37 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.28 | 7.93 | −3.35 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −2.46 | −0.89 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 9.35 | 5.99 | −3.36 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −2.84 | −0.52 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 9.52 | 6.13 | −3.39 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −2.87 | −0.52 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 11.06 | 7.63 | −3.43 | +1.78 | −0.02 | −4.89 | −0.30 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 10.28 | 6.74 | −3.54 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.79 | −0.75 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 8.98 | 5.34 | −3.64 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −3.65 | +0.01 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 11.98 | 8.32 | −3.66 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −3.23 | −0.43 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 9.75 | 6.01 | −3.74 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −3.19 | −0.54 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 9.42 | 5.68 | −3.74 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −3.63 | −0.10 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 9.49 | 5.66 | −3.83 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −3.65 | −0.17 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.03 | 5.80 | −4.23 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −3.36 | −0.85 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 10.50 | 6.18 | −4.32 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −3.69 | −0.62 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 9.45 | 4.82 | −4.63 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −4.50 | −0.12 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 9.92 | 5.12 | −4.80 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −4.25 | −0.53 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 10.76 | 5.90 | −4.86 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −4.32 | −0.53 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 10.77 | 5.06 | −5.71 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −5.77 | +0.06 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 9.59 | 3.79 | −5.80 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −5.05 | −0.74 |
Seed 23 of experiment cycle-003.e4-chn. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.