E4 · cycle-003.e4-chn

China, scripted, 30 years from 1996

30 simulations of 30 rounds from the 1996 position. China decides by the scripted method; scripted events: Global funding seizure in year 1, Core disaster in year 2, Market access opening in year 5, Severe pandemic in year 7, Core disaster in year 12, Global funding seizure in year 12, Global funding seizure in year 19, Trade bloc rupture in year 22, Severe pandemic in year 24.

Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seeds 1–30 · elasticity sampled within each bracket

The same configuration in other cycles: cycle 2.

Every simulation · Compare with another experiment · More experiments like this

Not a forecast

Simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values, to compare methods and test the model. Other nations stay at their 2026 ratings throughout.

Outcome across simulations

The median at 2026, with the 10th to the 90th percentile of the 30 simulations under it.

Capability index: 6.93 (−2.20); From 9.13; 6.91 to 6.94
Rank by index: 82; From 55; 82 to 82
Domains at Tier 1: 0; From 0; 0 to 0
Tier rank: 53; From 36; 50 to 53

Capability index by round

Rank by index, by round

Every objective at the position and at the horizon
Objective	1996	10th percentile	Median	90th percentile	Better
Capability indexprimary	9.13	6.91	6.93	6.94	higher
Rank by index	55	82	82	82	lower
Tier rank	36	50	53	53	lower
Domains at Tier 1	0	0	0	0	higher
Score sum	659.5	511.8	512.9	514.0	higher
Goal-weighted score	659.5	511.8	512.9	514.0	higher
Resilient score	659.5	512.9 (mean score sum over the simulations)			higher

The capability index is the mean of the three dimensions, each the mean of its domains, each the mean of its groups. Tiers are Pareto layers within each domain; the tier rank orders nations by domains held at Tier 1, then Tier 2, and so on. The goal-weighted score is the score sum unless the experiment sets a goal. The primary objective is the one the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it.

Credits

What each round’s credits went on in the median simulation. Across all simulations, build took 80 per cent, buy took 10 per cent, partner took 10 per cent of the 1,001 credits a simulation spent on actions.

Against history

Started from a reconstructed 1996 position and played along the pathway and shocks China actually had, then scored against the 2026 ratings. The position is an estimate, so part of any error is the reconstruction's. The calibration summary across all fifty nations is on the cycle's page under Loop.

Index 1996: 9.13; reconstructed
Observed 2026: 15.64; the Index's rating
Simulated 2026: 6.93; 6.86 to 7.00
Skill against persistence: −0.29; group error 8.72 against 6.76 if nothing changed

Domain	1996	Observed	Simulated	Bias	Direction
Critical Technology	5.94	17.76	6.38 6.3–6.4	−11.38	right
Strategic Infrastructure	10.52	17.43	8.64 8.5–8.8	−8.79	wrong
National Security	8.75	17.30	7.24 7.2–7.3	−10.06	wrong
Human Capital	9.42	13.63	7.35 7.3–7.4	−6.28	wrong
Information & Influence	9.18	16.47	6.55 6.5–6.6	−9.92	wrong
Governance & Integrity	8.92	10.75	6.86 6.8–6.9	−3.88	wrong
Financial Strength	9.65	14.96	5.31 5.3–5.4	−9.65	wrong
Production & Innovation	9.67	15.45	6.54 6.5–6.6	−8.92	wrong
Trade & Investment	10.09	17.06	7.48 7.4–7.6	−9.58	wrong

The history it was played under: shocks and events

1997 · S02 × 0.5 The Asian financial crisis hit regional demand and foreign investment, but China's capital controls and currency peg limited direct financial contagion.
1998 · S07 × 0.8 Catastrophic Yangtze and Songhua flooding killed thousands, displaced millions and shut down economic activity across central China.
2001 · S12 × 1 WTO membership opened markets and locked in export-led growth, attracting manufacturing foreign direct investment.
2003 · S10 × 0.5 The SARS outbreak exposed weaknesses in epidemic response and caused regional economic disruption.
2008 · S07 × 0.7 The Wenchuan earthquake devastated Sichuan, destroying infrastructure and industrial capacity.
2008 · S02 × 0.7 The global financial crisis caused a collapse in export demand and prompted a massive domestic stimulus.
2015 · S02 × 0.5 The Shanghai stock market crash forced state intervention and exposed weaknesses in margin finance and market regulation.
2018 · S01 × 0.9 US tariffs and semiconductor export controls fragmented trade and accelerated China's technology self-reliance drive.
2020 · S10 × 1.2 The COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan triggered nationwide lockdowns, disrupted supply chains and required massive public health mobilisation.

The pathway: what it prioritised, period by period

1997–2002 · build · 5% each State-led infrastructure expansion and state-owned enterprise reform supported the export-led growth strategy ahead of WTO accession. (Transport Infrastructure, Energy Infrastructure, Trade Policy & Market Access, Industrial & Sectoral Base, Export Capability & Sophistication)
2001–2006 · partner · 2% each WTO membership and foreign direct investment integrated China into global value chains and upgraded export processing. (Export Capability & Sophistication, Investment Attraction & Projection, Trade Policy & Market Access, Resource Infrastructure, Global Value Chain Position)
2006–2010 · build · 5% each The 11th Five-Year Plan and post-crisis stimulus launched high-speed rail, energy expansion and indigenous innovation programmes. (Transport Infrastructure, Energy Infrastructure, Research Talent & Knowledge Creation, Space Technologies, Advanced Materials & Manufacturing)
2010–2015 · buy · 2% each The strategic emerging industries initiative targeted advanced manufacturing, semiconductors, biotech and clean energy through state funding and technology acquisition. (Advanced Manufacturing, Semiconductors & Advanced Computing, Biotechnology & Health Technologies, Energy Technologies, Space Technologies)
2015–2020 · build · 5% each Made in China 2025 and the national AI strategy directed national resources to technological self-reliance across digital and frontier sectors. (Artificial Intelligence, Semiconductors & Advanced Computing, Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies, Robotics & Autonomous Systems, Space Technologies)
2020–2026 · build · 5% each Dual circulation and tech self-reliance intensified state-led investment in semiconductors, AI, quantum, clean energy and biotech amid US export controls. (Semiconductors & Advanced Computing, Artificial Intelligence, Quantum Technologies, Energy Technologies, Biotechnology & Health Technologies)

Reconstruction notes (deepseek-v4-pro): The main uncertainty is condensing China's vast regional heterogeneity into a single national score, particularly for military and technology capabilities where 1996 data are opaque. The relative scale against the 1996 world frontier is also imprecise for sectors such as AI and quantum where China's later rise was not yet visible. Mapping real-world crises and policy packages to the event library necessarily simplifies complex, overlapping developments.

Report

Written from the simulation record by the loop's narrator. Every figure names the query it came from, in square brackets.

Batch cycle-003. Model 0.2.0, graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.1. 30 simulations, seeds 1 to 30; probes on 10. Every figure is a distribution over simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values; it shows what the model implies under these settings, not what will happen. Other nations are frozen at their 2026 ratings. No reconstructed historical data is used in this experiment.

Headline

China played 30 rounds from 1996 under the scripted method, with scripted events, 30 times. Its capability index moved from 9.13 to a median of 6.93 (−2.20), with 90 per cent of simulations between 6.91 and 6.94 [experiment_objectives].

Starting position

In 1996 the nation ranks 55 on the index against the frozen field, holds 0 of nine domains at Tier 1 and has a tier rank of 36. Its base income is 270 credits a year, calibrated so that its 2026 position is affordable with headroom for investment.

What was decided

A simulation spent a median of 1,002 credits on moves. The five groups that took most were Transport Infrastructure (build, 133 credits, 13.3 per cent); Energy Infrastructure (build, 133 credits, 13.3 per cent); Artificial Intelligence (build, 91 credits, 9.1 per cent); Semiconductors & Advanced Computing (build, 85 credits, 8.5 per cent); Trade Policy & Market Access (build, 76 credits, 7.6 per cent) [experiment_decisions_by_group]. By mode: build 80 per cent, buy 10 per cent, partner 10 per cent [experiment_decisions_by_group]. Concentration of spending (HHI) had a median of 0.085, and the most repeated action appeared in 37 per cent of rounds.

The leading domain by period: rounds 1 to 5, Strategic Infrastructure; rounds 6 to 10, Trade & Investment; rounds 11 to 15, Strategic Infrastructure; rounds 16 to 20, Critical Technology; rounds 21 to 25, Critical Technology; rounds 26 to 30, Critical Technology [experiment_spend_by_period].

What the world did

A median simulation saw 8 shocks and 1 upside events. The most damaging per firing were S07 (60 firings in 30 simulations, −35.4 points each); S10 (60 firings in 30 simulations, −29.5 points each); S01 (30 firings in 30 simulations, −25.0 points each) [experiment_shocks]. Upside events fired 30 times across all simulations [experiment_shocks].

The groups that lost most to shocks, per simulation: Trade Facilitation & Logistics −6.08; Investment Attraction & Projection −5.20; Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance −5.15; Global Value Chain Position −4.92 [experiment_shock_damage_by_group].

The edges that carried most change through the graph, per simulation: Semiconductors & Advanced Computing to Artificial Intelligence (+0.69 points); Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance to Force Generation & Mobilisation (−1.03 points); Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance to Social Infrastructure (−0.97 points) [experiment_propagation_by_edge].

Where it ended

At 2026 the median rank is 82 (5th to 95th percentile 82 to 82), the median count of Tier 1 domains 0 (0 to 0) and the median tier rank 53; the resilient score, the mean score sum over simulations, is 513 [experiment_objectives].

Why

Without shocks the index ends +3.238 higher on average, so the shocks cost about 3.238 index points [experiment_probe_attribution].

Holding instead of following this method changes the index by −0.727: that is the method's worth against doing nothing [experiment_probe_attribution].

Removing any single one of the five largest actions changes the index by between +0.002 and +0.007, for example 1997 build Transport Infrastructure (13 credits) [experiment_probe_attribution]. The largest actions by credits come late, when income is highest, and are rarely the most valuable.

Removing the largest shock of a simulation raises the index by +0.642 on average [experiment_probe_attribution].

The replay probe reproduces the simulations exactly (index change 0.000000), so the attributions are clean [experiment_probe_attribution].

Surprises

tier_jump (warn): largest gain in one domain within five years: 5 tiers (30 simulations above 2); tiers are reported, not an objective.

retired_words (warn): e4-chn/report.md: 'simulations' 1 time(s), first near line 38; use 'simulations'.

The simulation furthest from the median (seed 15) ends −0.02 from it, with 8 shocks and 1 upside events [experiment_outlier_simulations].

Comparison

This is the baseline (hold) experiment, or there is none for this nation in the batch.

Against history: from a reconstructed index of 9.13 the model ends at 6.93, where the 2026 ratings put it at 15.64. Group scores miss by 8.72 points on average, against 6.77 for assuming nothing changed (skill −0.29); the change in each domain has the right sign in 11 per cent of domains. Furthest below history: critical technology (−11.38); furthest above: governance and integrity (−3.88) [experiment_against_history]. The starting position is reconstructed, so part of the error is the reconstruction's.

What each decision and shock was worth

Counterfactual probes on the first 10 seeds: the same simulations with one thing changed, paired seed by seed. A removed decision or shock is taken out and the other decisions replayed unchanged, so the difference is that item's worth.

Probe	Index	Score sum	For example
Hold instead of the method	−0.727	−56.4
No shocks	+3.238	+226.4
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0
Without the 1st largest decision	+0.007	+0.3	1997 build Transport Infrastructure (13 credits)
Without the 2nd largest decision	+0.006	+0.2	1997 build Energy Infrastructure (13 credits)
Without the 3rd largest decision	+0.003	+0.2	1997 build Trade Policy & Market Access (13 credits)
Without the 4th largest decision	+0.002	+0.1	1997 build Industrial & Sectoral Base (13 credits)
Without the 5th largest decision	+0.007	+0.3	1998 build Transport Infrastructure (13 credits)
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.642	+45.3	2020 S10 (-41.0 points)
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.617	+44.1	1998 S07 (-37.8 points)
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.537	+38.6	2008 S07 (-32.9 points)

Simulations

Three simulations told round by round, each on its own page: the one nearest the median index at the horizon, and those nearest the 10th and the 90th percentile. Every one of the 30 is listed with its outcome on the simulations page.

All 30 simulations

Events

How often each shock and upside event began across the simulations. Shocks come from the ten downside scenarios and upside events from the ten upside ones, at their yearly likelihood.

Event	Kind	Simulations	Mean round	Points
Trade bloc rupture S01	Shock	100 per cent	22.0	−25.0
Global funding seizure S02	Shock	100 per cent	10.7	−11.2
Core disaster S07	Shock	100 per cent	7.0	−35.4
Severe pandemic S10	Shock	100 per cent	15.5	−29.5
Market access opening S12	Upside	100 per cent	5.0	+9.8

Groups across simulations

Every capability group: its position, and its median and spread at the horizon across the simulations, with what the method spent on it.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	1996	2026	Change	Levels invested	Credits
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	3.62	7.06 7.00 to 7.10	+3.44	4.97	105
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	8.61	11.39 11.28 to 11.53	+2.78	3.85	91
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	10.94	12.67 12.58 to 12.77	+1.73	6.21	95
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	9.81	11.42 11.34 to 11.52	+1.61	4.95	133
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.00	12.02 11.82 to 12.25	+1.02	4.79	133
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	9.29	10.04 10.00 to 10.10	+0.75	2.95	57
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	5.44	6.00 5.97 to 6.01	+0.56	2.02	35
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	9.35	9.89 9.85 to 9.99	+0.54	2.57	66
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	4.78	5.31 5.29 to 5.34	+0.53	2.18	21
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	5.16	4.95 4.94 to 4.97	−0.21	0.87	10
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	5.24	4.86 4.74 to 4.96	−0.38	0.57	13
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	9.93	9.38 9.30 to 9.49	−0.55	4.38	63
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	5.08	4.34 4.24 to 4.42	−0.74	0.19	3
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	11.12	10.23 10.17 to 10.26	−0.89	3.75	76
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	9.77	8.83 8.78 to 8.86	−0.94	1.21	21
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	5.32	4.30 4.29 to 4.31	−1.02	0.00	0
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	6.79	5.71 5.68 to 5.74	−1.08	1.95	21
Maritime Power	National Security	6.14	5.02 4.99 to 5.04	−1.12	0.00	0
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	7.13	6.00 5.98 to 6.03	−1.13	0.00	0
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	5.93	4.77 4.75 to 4.80	−1.16	0.00	0
Air Power	National Security	6.32	5.10 5.08 to 5.14	−1.22	0.00	0
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	6.55	5.31 5.29 to 5.33	−1.24	0.00	0
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	8.12	6.79 6.78 to 6.81	−1.33	0.00	0
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	7.02	5.68 5.65 to 5.71	−1.34	0.00	0
Space Operations	National Security	8.17	6.81 6.76 to 6.86	−1.36	0.00	0
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	8.20	6.76 6.71 to 6.81	−1.44	0.00	0
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.01	8.51 8.44 to 8.61	−1.50	1.02	19
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	10.61	9.00 8.95 to 9.04	−1.61	0.00	0
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	8.25	6.61 6.58 to 6.65	−1.64	0.00	0
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	10.47	8.82 8.79 to 8.85	−1.65	0.00	0
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	9.27	7.61 7.58 to 7.65	−1.66	0.00	0
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	8.40	6.66 6.61 to 6.72	−1.74	0.00	0
Land Power	National Security	9.86	8.05 7.96 to 8.10	−1.81	0.00	0
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	9.86	8.02 8.00 to 8.04	−1.84	0.00	0
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	8.52	6.65 6.61 to 6.70	−1.87	0.00	0
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	6.61	4.57 4.47 to 4.63	−2.04	0.00	0
Advanced Education	Human Capital	9.40	7.33 7.29 to 7.40	−2.07	0.00	0
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	11.30	9.23 9.17 to 9.29	−2.07	0.00	0
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.37	8.09 8.04 to 8.14	−2.28	0.00	0
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	8.29	5.99 5.95 to 6.05	−2.30	0.00	0
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	8.85	6.48 6.42 to 6.53	−2.37	0.00	0
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	10.16	7.77 7.64 to 7.89	−2.39	0.00	0
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	12.46	10.01 9.66 to 10.26	−2.45	0.00	0
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	8.04	5.57 5.52 to 5.61	−2.47	0.00	0
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	10.75	8.16 8.14 to 8.17	−2.59	0.00	0
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.84	8.10 7.94 to 8.31	−2.74	0.00	0
Population Health	Human Capital	9.18	6.42 6.28 to 6.47	−2.76	0.00	0
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.73	9.93 9.77 to 10.07	−2.80	0.00	0
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	8.64	5.65 5.61 to 5.70	−2.99	0.00	0
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	8.97	5.85 5.84 to 5.89	−3.12	0.00	0
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	8.21	5.09 5.06 to 5.15	−3.12	0.00	0
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.28	8.12 7.91 to 8.25	−3.16	0.00	0
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	9.21	6.04 6.02 to 6.07	−3.17	0.00	0
Foundational Education	Human Capital	10.97	7.79 7.64 to 7.89	−3.18	0.00	0
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	9.94	6.73 6.70 to 6.76	−3.21	0.00	0
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	10.72	7.42 7.36 to 7.52	−3.30	1.80	19
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	10.28	6.88 6.81 to 6.99	−3.40	0.00	0
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	9.52	6.11 6.02 to 6.23	−3.41	0.00	0
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	11.63	8.22 8.13 to 8.31	−3.41	0.00	0
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	9.35	5.89 5.73 to 6.05	−3.46	0.00	0
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	11.06	7.56 7.52 to 7.63	−3.50	1.78	19
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	11.98	8.35 8.29 to 8.43	−3.63	0.00	0
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	8.98	5.23 5.15 to 5.31	−3.75	0.00	0
Health System Capability	Human Capital	9.75	5.94 5.84 to 6.06	−3.81	0.00	0
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	9.49	5.66 5.63 to 5.70	−3.83	0.00	0
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	9.42	5.58 5.48 to 5.67	−3.84	0.00	0
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	10.50	6.29 6.19 to 6.33	−4.21	0.00	0
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.03	5.50 5.37 to 5.76	−4.53	0.00	0
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	9.45	4.83 4.80 to 4.84	−4.62	0.00	0
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	9.92	5.18 5.12 to 5.26	−4.74	0.00	0
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	10.76	5.94 5.80 to 6.07	−4.82	0.00	0
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	9.59	3.84 3.76 to 3.97	−5.75	0.00	0
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	10.77	5.02 4.99 to 5.06	−5.75	0.00	0

Checks

The automated checks run on this experiment before anything was written about it. A warning is a candidate finding for the improvement loop.

passcredits_conservedlargest gap between credits in and credits accounted for: 5.0e-14
passscores_in_boundsscores range 3.432 to 16.046
passno_nans0 missing values in the trajectory and objectives
passprobe_replay_reproducesthe recorded moves played back reproduce the simulation to within 0.0e+00 points (10 simulations)
passledger_balancesthe edge ledger sums to the propagated change to within 1.5e-08 points
passmove_without_shocklargest one-year move in a group with no shock landing: 0.79 points; 0% of simulations have one above 3
warntier_jumplargest gain in one domain within five years: 5 tiers (30 simulations above 2); tiers are reported, not an objective
passall_tier1_from_outside_top10starting rank 55; 0 simulations reach Tier 1 in all nine domains
passsaturation_high0% of simulations end with a group at 20 that did not start there (median 0 groups)
passsaturation_low0% of simulations end with a group at 0 that did not start there (median 0 groups)
passspend_concentrationmedian concentration of spending across groups (HHI) 0.085; most funded group hard.strategic_infrastructure.energy_infrastructure
passsame_actionthe most repeated move (group and mode) appears in a median 37% of rounds
passregression_index_p50index_p50 moved 26.1% since cycle-002 (5.49 to 6.93); versions changed (0.1.0 to 0.1.1, graph 0.2.0 to 0.2.0)
passregression_score_sum_p50score_sum_p50 moved 26.2% since cycle-002 (406.57 to 512.93); versions changed (0.1.0 to 0.1.1, graph 0.2.0 to 0.2.0)

Settings and versions

Experiment cycle-003.e4-chn. Every simulation records the model, graph and parameter versions, the scenario, the method and its seed, so it can be reproduced exactly.

Nation: China (CHN)
Position: A reconstructed 1996 position, aligned to the Index's scale
Method: Scripted. Actions fixed in advance by the experiment: for a backcast, the nation's historical pathway.
Scenario: Scripted events: Global funding seizure in year 1, Core disaster in year 2, Market access opening in year 5, Severe pandemic in year 7, Core disaster in year 12, Global funding seizure in year 12, Global funding seizure in year 19, Trade bloc rupture in year 22, Severe pandemic in year 24
Objective: Capability index, the primary objective the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it
Horizon: 30 rounds, 1996 to 2026
Simulations: 30 seeds, 1 to 30. Every method in the batch faces the same draws for the same seed.
Graph elasticities: Drawn for each simulation, uniformly within each edge’s bracket
Income: Base credits 269.5 a round, moving with the economic groups
Versions: Model 0.2.0, Capability Dependency Graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.1
Batch: Backcast 1996-2026 (cycle-003), cycle 3 of the improvement loop
Runtime: 7.3 seconds in all; 2136 microseconds a round

Not a forecast: Every figure is a distribution over the simulations of a structural model, reported to compare methods and test the model. None is a prediction of what a nation will do or become.
Structural parameters: Costs, decay, vulnerability and credits are structural seed values with low or medium confidence, set by domain with single-group exceptions. Five groups have no defensible value in a single-nation model and are flagged in the parameter tables.
Other nations are frozen: One nation is simulated at a time. Every other nation stays at its 2026 rating, so rank and tiers are measured against a still field; where the simulated nation rises past others their own tiers are not re-sorted.
Starting depth and mode are defaults: The position is the National Capability Index ratings. How institutionalised each capability is, and how much was built, bought or partnered, have no data behind them yet and start from structural defaults.
Credits are calibrated, not measured: Each nation’s income is set so that its position is affordable with headroom that rises with its fiscal capacity. It is not yet fiscal capacity as a share of GDP.