E4 · cycle-003.e4-deu

Germany, scripted, 30 years from 1996

30 simulations of 30 rounds from the 1996 position. Germany decides by the scripted method; scripted events: Global funding seizure in year 12, Global funding seizure in year 14, Severe pandemic in year 24, Trade bloc rupture in year 26.

Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seeds 1–30 · elasticity sampled within each bracket

The same configuration in other cycles: cycle 2.

Every simulation · Compare with another experiment · More experiments like this

Not a forecast

Simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values, to compare methods and test the model. Other nations stay at their 2026 ratings throughout.

Outcome across simulations

The median at 2026, with the 10th to the 90th percentile of the 30 simulations under it.

Capability index: 17.51 (+0.53); From 16.98; 17.51 to 17.52
Rank by index: 2; From 2; 2 to 2
Domains at Tier 1: 8; From 6; 8 to 8
Tier rank: 1; From 2; 1 to 1

Capability index by round

Rank by index, by round

Every objective at the position and at the horizon
Objective	1996	10th percentile	Median	90th percentile	Better
Capability indexprimary	16.98	17.51	17.51	17.52	higher
Rank by index	2	2	2	2	lower
Tier rank	2	1	1	1	lower
Domains at Tier 1	6	8	8	8	higher
Score sum	1232.7	1275.2	1275.4	1275.8	higher
Goal-weighted score	1232.7	1275.2	1275.4	1275.8	higher
Resilient score	1232.7	1275.4 (mean score sum over the simulations)			higher

The capability index is the mean of the three dimensions, each the mean of its domains, each the mean of its groups. Tiers are Pareto layers within each domain; the tier rank orders nations by domains held at Tier 1, then Tier 2, and so on. The goal-weighted score is the score sum unless the experiment sets a goal. The primary objective is the one the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it.

Credits

What each round’s credits went on in the median simulation. Across all simulations, build took 92 per cent, buy took 0 per cent, partner took 8 per cent of the 12,443 credits a simulation spent on actions.

Against history

Started from a reconstructed 1996 position and played along the pathway and shocks Germany actually had, then scored against the 2026 ratings. The position is an estimate, so part of any error is the reconstruction's. The calibration summary across all fifty nations is on the cycle's page under Loop.

Index 1996: 16.98; reconstructed
Observed 2026: 16.36; the Index's rating
Simulated 2026: 17.51; 17.48 to 17.54
Skill against persistence: −0.66; group error 1.82 against 1.09 if nothing changed

Domain	1996	Observed	Simulated	Bias	Direction
Critical Technology	18.07	16.72	18.13 18.1–18.1	+1.41	wrong
Strategic Infrastructure	17.34	16.34	18.82 18.8–18.9	+2.48	wrong
National Security	13.28	12.62	13.99 14.0–14.0	+1.37	wrong
Human Capital	17.17	16.76	18.03 18.0–18.1	+1.27	wrong
Information & Influence	17.07	16.80	16.35 16.3–16.4	−0.45	right
Governance & Integrity	17.34	16.40	18.45 18.4–18.4	+2.05	wrong
Financial Strength	17.79	16.91	18.85 18.8–18.9	+1.95	wrong
Production & Innovation	16.71	17.23	17.81 17.8–17.8	+0.58	right
Trade & Investment	18.04	17.50	17.19 17.1–17.2	−0.31	right

The history it was played under: shocks and events

2008 · S02 × 0.8 The global financial crisis triggered German bank rescues, a sharp export collapse and a deep recession in 2009.
2010 · S02 × 0.4 The euro-area sovereign debt crisis exposed German banks to southern European debt and drew Germany into European rescue packages.
2020 · S10 × 0.7 COVID-19 overwhelmed parts of the health system, forced lockdowns and produced the deepest German output contraction since 2009.
2022 · S01 × 0.8 Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the ensuing energy cut-off, sanctions and trade decoupling struck Germany's energy-intensive export economy.

The pathway: what it prioritised, period by period

1997–2001 · partner · 2% each Prepared for the euro and deepened EU single-market integration while consolidating post-reunification public finances. (Monetary & Currency Capability, Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance, Trade Policy & Market Access, Government Effectiveness & Public Administration, Financial System Depth & Access)
2003–2008 · build · 5% each Schroeder's Agenda 2010 and the Hartz reforms overhauled labour-market institutions, welfare conditionality and public employment services. (Labour & Employment, Lifelong Learning & Reskilling, Social Infrastructure, Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship, Government Effectiveness & Public Administration)
2008–2012 · build · 5% each Responded to the global financial crisis and euro-area sovereign debt crisis with bank rescues, stimulus, fiscal rules and European stabilisation mechanisms. (Financial Stability & Crisis Management, Financial Regulation & Integrity, Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance, Monetary & Currency Capability, National Resilience & Crisis Management)
2011–2016 · build · 5% each After Fukushima, Germany accelerated the Energiewende, phasing out nuclear and scaling renewables, grids and efficiency programmes. (Energy Infrastructure, Energy Technologies, Resource Infrastructure, Industrial & Sectoral Base, Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls)
2015–2019 · build · 2% each Managed the 2015-16 refugee intake and began federal digital-skills and broadband initiatives. (Social Infrastructure, Internal Security & Order, Digital & AI Competence, Communications & Digital Infrastructure, Lifelong Learning & Reskilling)
2020–2022 · build · 5% each Suspended the debt brake, funded vaccine development and procurement, and mounted large fiscal support during COVID-19. (Health System Capability, Biotechnology & Health Technologies, National Resilience & Crisis Management, Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance, Government Effectiveness & Public Administration)
2022–2026 · build · 5% each Zeitenwende created a EUR 100 billion Bundeswehr special fund, accelerated energy diversification and subsidised semiconductor and battery investments. (Force Generation & Mobilisation, Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment, Energy Infrastructure, Semiconductors & Advanced Computing, Industrial & Sectoral Base)

Reconstruction notes (deepseek-v4-pro): The largest uncertainties concern fast-moving 1996 technology positions, especially semiconductors, AI and quantum, where Germany's underlying research base was stronger than commercial leadership implied. East-west differences within Germany make single national scores for social and labour capabilities approximate rather than precise. Mapping real events to the event library required judgement, particularly for the 2022 energy and trade shock, which was not a clean trade-bloc rupture but a targeted interdependence weaponisation.

Report

Written from the simulation record by the loop's narrator. Every figure names the query it came from, in square brackets.

Batch cycle-003. Model 0.2.0, graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.1. 30 simulations, seeds 1 to 30; probes on 10. Every figure is a distribution over simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values; it shows what the model implies under these settings, not what will happen. Other nations are frozen at their 2026 ratings. No reconstructed historical data is used in this experiment.

Headline

Germany played 30 rounds from 1996 under the scripted method, with scripted events, 30 times. Its capability index moved from 16.98 to a median of 17.51 (+0.53), with 90 per cent of simulations between 17.51 and 17.52 [experiment_objectives].

Starting position

In 1996 the nation ranks 2 on the index against the frozen field, holds 6 of nine domains at Tier 1 and has a tier rank of 2. Its base income is 1,879 credits a year, calibrated so that its 2026 position is affordable with headroom for investment.

What was decided

A simulation spent a median of 12,437 credits on moves. The five groups that took most were National Resilience & Crisis Management (build, 794 credits, 6.4 per cent); Energy Infrastructure (build, 778 credits, 6.3 per cent); Social Infrastructure (build, 762 credits, 6.1 per cent); Lifelong Learning & Reskilling (build, 761 credits, 6.1 per cent); Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance (build, 712 credits, 5.7 per cent) [experiment_decisions_by_group]. By mode: build 92 per cent, partner 8 per cent [experiment_decisions_by_group]. Concentration of spending (HHI) had a median of 0.050, and the most repeated action appeared in 33 per cent of rounds.

The leading domain by period: rounds 1 to 5, Financial Strength; rounds 6 to 10, Production & Innovation; rounds 11 to 15, Financial Strength; rounds 16 to 20, Strategic Infrastructure; rounds 21 to 25, Human Capital; rounds 26 to 30, National Security [experiment_spend_by_period].

What the world did

A median simulation saw 4 shocks and 0 upside events. The most damaging per firing were S10 (30 firings in 30 simulations, −13.8 points each); S01 (30 firings in 30 simulations, −13.6 points each); S02 (60 firings in 30 simulations, −8.7 points each) [experiment_shocks].

The groups that lost most to shocks, per simulation: Investment Attraction & Projection −1.35; Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance −1.33; Monetary & Currency Capability −1.26; Trade Policy & Market Access −1.22 [experiment_shock_damage_by_group].

The edges that carried most change through the graph, per simulation: Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance to Social Infrastructure (+0.49 points); Energy Infrastructure to Advanced Manufacturing (+0.35 points); Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance to Force Generation & Mobilisation (+0.36 points) [experiment_propagation_by_edge].

Where it ended

At 2026 the median rank is 2 (5th to 95th percentile 2 to 2), the median count of Tier 1 domains 8 (8 to 8) and the median tier rank 1; the resilient score, the mean score sum over simulations, is 1,275 [experiment_objectives].

Tier 1 probability changed most in: critical technology (0 to 100 per cent of simulations); information and influence (100 to 0 per cent of simulations); national security (0 to 100 per cent of simulations); production and innovation (0 to 100 per cent of simulations) [experiment_tiers_by_round].

Why

Without shocks the index ends +0.486 higher on average, so the shocks cost about 0.486 index points [experiment_probe_attribution].

Holding instead of following this method changes the index by −1.411: that is the method's worth against doing nothing [experiment_probe_attribution].

Removing any single one of the five largest actions changes the index by between 0.000 and 0.000, for example 2009 build Financial Stability & Crisis Management (101 credits) [experiment_probe_attribution]. The largest actions by credits come late, when income is highest, and are rarely the most valuable.

Removing the largest shock of a simulation raises the index by +0.208 on average [experiment_probe_attribution].

The replay probe reproduces the simulations exactly (index change 0.000000), so the attributions are clean [experiment_probe_attribution].

Surprises

saturation_high (warn): 100% of simulations end with a group at 20 that did not start there (median 5 groups).

retired_words (warn): e4-deu/report.md: 'simulations' 1 time(s), first near line 39; use 'simulations'.

The simulation furthest from the median (seed 27) ends +0.01 from it, with 4 shocks and 0 upside events [experiment_outlier_simulations].

Comparison

This is the baseline (hold) experiment, or there is none for this nation in the batch.

Against history: from a reconstructed index of 16.98 the model ends at 17.51, where the 2026 ratings put it at 16.36. Group scores miss by 1.82 points on average, against 1.09 for assuming nothing changed (skill −0.66); the change in each domain has the right sign in 33 per cent of domains. Furthest below history: information and influence (−0.45); furthest above: strategic infrastructure (+2.48) [experiment_against_history]. The starting position is reconstructed, so part of the error is the reconstruction's.

What each decision and shock was worth

Counterfactual probes on the first 10 seeds: the same simulations with one thing changed, paired seed by seed. A removed decision or shock is taken out and the other decisions replayed unchanged, so the difference is that item's worth.

Probe	Index	Score sum	Tier 1	For example
Hold instead of the method	−1.411	−102.8	−6.00
No shocks	+0.486	+31.9	+1.00
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0	0.00
Without the 1st largest decision	−0.000	0.0	0.00	2009 build Financial Stability & Crisis Management (101 credits)
Without the 2nd largest decision	−0.000	−0.0	0.00	2009 build Financial Regulation & Integrity (101 credits)
Without the 3rd largest decision	+0.000	+0.0	0.00	2009 build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance (101 credits)
Without the 4th largest decision	+0.000	+0.0	0.00	2009 build Monetary & Currency Capability (101 credits)
Without the 5th largest decision	0.000	0.0	0.00	2009 build National Resilience & Crisis Management (101 credits)
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.116	+6.9	−1.00	2020 S10 (-13.8 points)
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.208	+14.7	0.00	2022 S01 (-13.6 points)
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.103	+6.6	0.00	2008 S02 (-11.9 points)

Simulations

Three simulations told round by round, each on its own page: the one nearest the median index at the horizon, and those nearest the 10th and the 90th percentile. Every one of the 30 is listed with its outcome on the simulations page.

All 30 simulations

Events

How often each shock and upside event began across the simulations. Shocks come from the ten downside scenarios and upside events from the ten upside ones, at their yearly likelihood.

Event	Kind	Simulations	Mean round	Points
Trade bloc rupture S01	Shock	100 per cent	26.0	−13.6
Global funding seizure S02	Shock	100 per cent	13.0	−8.7
Severe pandemic S10	Shock	100 per cent	24.0	−13.8

Groups across simulations

Every capability group: its position, and its median and spread at the horizon across the simulations, with what the method spent on it.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	1996	2026	Change	Levels invested	Credits
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	13.38	19.82 19.81 to 19.83	+6.44	12.99	594
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	14.82	20.00 20.00 to 20.00	+5.18	5.96	369
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	14.48	19.41 19.40 to 19.42	+4.93	12.70	603
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	15.36	19.66 19.65 to 19.68	+4.30	11.95	603
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	16.31	19.99 19.99 to 20.00	+3.68	6.74	158
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.47	20.00 20.00 to 20.00	+3.53	9.37	778
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	14.06	17.58 17.35 to 17.84	+3.52	3.69	254
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	16.53	19.96 19.96 to 19.96	+3.43	4.47	158
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	16.83	19.98 19.97 to 19.98	+3.15	19.91	761
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	16.59	19.67 19.67 to 19.67	+3.08	8.47	594
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.99	19.95 19.95 to 19.95	+2.96	8.56	762
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	17.00	19.96 19.96 to 19.98	+2.96	7.93	903
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	17.08	19.93 19.93 to 19.94	+2.85	3.94	158
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	17.41	20.00 20.00 to 20.00	+2.59	10.02	794
Health System Capability	Human Capital	17.45	20.00 20.00 to 20.00	+2.55	5.92	296
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	17.48	19.83 19.80 to 19.84	+2.35	8.73	555
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	17.91	20.00 20.00 to 20.00	+2.09	8.39	897
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	18.22	19.71 19.69 to 19.73	+1.49	5.97	498
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	17.33	18.79 18.79 to 18.80	+1.46	3.06	192
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	18.62	19.98 19.96 to 20.00	+1.36	7.48	669
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	15.45	16.69 16.67 to 16.73	+1.24	2.06	171
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	18.13	18.77 18.73 to 18.80	+0.64	4.26	192
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	18.99	19.62 19.61 to 19.62	+0.63	5.18	498
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	18.89	19.42 19.42 to 19.43	+0.53	6.47	690
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	19.65	20.00 20.00 to 20.00	+0.35	2.42	296
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	18.39	18.43 18.34 to 18.54	+0.04	0.00	0
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	18.52	18.56 18.45 to 18.67	+0.04	0.00	0
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	1.83	1.78 1.78 to 1.78	−0.05	0.00	0
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	18.17	18.06 17.97 to 18.16	−0.11	0.00	0
Land Power	National Security	16.81	16.69 16.66 to 16.74	−0.12	0.00	0
Maritime Power	National Security	15.25	15.07 15.06 to 15.09	−0.18	0.00	0
Foundational Education	Human Capital	16.63	16.43 16.36 to 16.51	−0.20	0.00	0
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	13.46	13.26 13.23 to 13.30	−0.20	0.00	0
Air Power	National Security	17.27	17.05 17.04 to 17.07	−0.22	0.00	0
Advanced Education	Human Capital	16.62	16.40 16.37 to 16.43	−0.22	0.00	0
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	18.79	18.55 18.51 to 18.58	−0.24	0.00	0
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	20.00	19.75 19.75 to 19.76	−0.25	0.00	0
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	15.91	15.65 15.64 to 15.66	−0.26	0.00	0
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	12.97	12.69 12.68 to 12.70	−0.28	0.00	0
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	17.87	17.59 17.58 to 17.60	−0.28	0.00	0
Space Operations	National Security	10.44	10.15 10.13 to 10.16	−0.29	0.00	0
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	17.71	17.41 17.40 to 17.43	−0.30	0.00	0
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.58	16.22 16.21 to 16.23	−0.36	0.00	0
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	15.82	15.46 15.38 to 15.54	−0.36	0.00	0
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	17.78	17.40 17.38 to 17.43	−0.38	0.00	0
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	17.86	17.47 17.44 to 17.51	−0.39	0.00	0
Population Health	Human Capital	16.32	15.93 15.90 to 15.97	−0.39	0.00	0
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	17.57	17.16 17.15 to 17.16	−0.41	0.00	0
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	16.86	16.44 16.44 to 16.44	−0.42	0.00	0
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	17.20	16.77 16.77 to 16.78	−0.43	0.00	0
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	19.29	18.79 18.74 to 18.86	−0.50	0.00	0
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	16.90	16.37 16.34 to 16.41	−0.53	0.00	0
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	17.57	17.04 16.97 to 17.09	−0.53	0.00	0
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	19.03	18.49 18.43 to 18.57	−0.54	0.00	0
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	16.54	15.97 15.95 to 16.00	−0.57	0.00	0
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	16.29	15.68 15.57 to 15.76	−0.61	0.00	0
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	16.33	15.71 15.71 to 15.72	−0.62	0.00	0
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	20.00	19.38 19.37 to 19.39	−0.62	0.00	0
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	20.00	19.36 19.34 to 19.38	−0.64	0.00	0
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	18.67	18.03 18.02 to 18.04	−0.64	0.00	0
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	14.45	13.79 13.79 to 13.79	−0.66	0.00	0
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	20.00	19.33 19.27 to 19.38	−0.67	0.00	0
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	17.95	17.27 17.25 to 17.29	−0.68	0.00	0
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	16.31	15.62 15.56 to 15.76	−0.69	0.00	0
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	16.95	16.06 16.05 to 16.07	−0.89	0.00	0
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	16.72	15.82 15.70 to 15.86	−0.90	0.00	0
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	16.82	15.90 15.88 to 15.92	−0.92	0.00	0
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	17.12	16.07 15.98 to 16.15	−1.05	0.00	0
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	18.38	17.26 17.23 to 17.30	−1.12	0.00	0
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	16.93	15.80 15.78 to 15.84	−1.13	0.00	0
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	18.24	17.01 16.98 to 17.04	−1.23	0.00	0
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	19.97	18.71 18.69 to 18.74	−1.26	0.00	0
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	18.16	16.83 16.80 to 16.85	−1.33	0.00	0

Checks

The automated checks run on this experiment before anything was written about it. A warning is a candidate finding for the improvement loop.

passcredits_conservedlargest gap between credits in and credits accounted for: 1.8e-12
passscores_in_boundsscores range 1.777 to 20.000
passno_nans0 missing values in the trajectory and objectives
passprobe_replay_reproducesthe recorded moves played back reproduce the simulation to within 0.0e+00 points (10 simulations)
passledger_balancesthe edge ledger sums to the propagated change to within 1.0e-06 points
passmove_without_shocklargest one-year move in a group with no shock landing: 2.92 points; 0% of simulations have one above 3
passtier_jumplargest gain in one domain within five years: 2 tiers (0 simulations above 2); tiers are reported, not an objective
passall_tier1_from_outside_top10starting rank 2; 0 simulations reach Tier 1 in all nine domains
warnsaturation_high100% of simulations end with a group at 20 that did not start there (median 5 groups)
passsaturation_low0% of simulations end with a group at 0 that did not start there (median 0 groups)
passspend_concentrationmedian concentration of spending across groups (HHI) 0.050; most funded group economic.financial_strength.fiscal_capacity_and_public_finance
passsame_actionthe most repeated move (group and mode) appears in a median 33% of rounds
passregression_index_p50index_p50 moved 0.4% since cycle-002 (17.58 to 17.51); versions changed (0.1.0 to 0.1.1, graph 0.2.0 to 0.2.0)
passregression_score_sum_p50score_sum_p50 moved 0.5% since cycle-002 (1281.67 to 1275.41); versions changed (0.1.0 to 0.1.1, graph 0.2.0 to 0.2.0)

Settings and versions

Experiment cycle-003.e4-deu. Every simulation records the model, graph and parameter versions, the scenario, the method and its seed, so it can be reproduced exactly.

Nation: Germany (DEU)
Position: A reconstructed 1996 position, aligned to the Index's scale
Method: Scripted. Actions fixed in advance by the experiment: for a backcast, the nation's historical pathway.
Scenario: Scripted events: Global funding seizure in year 12, Global funding seizure in year 14, Severe pandemic in year 24, Trade bloc rupture in year 26
Objective: Capability index, the primary objective the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it
Horizon: 30 rounds, 1996 to 2026
Simulations: 30 seeds, 1 to 30. Every method in the batch faces the same draws for the same seed.
Graph elasticities: Drawn for each simulation, uniformly within each edge’s bracket
Income: Base credits 1,878.9 a round, moving with the economic groups
Versions: Model 0.2.0, Capability Dependency Graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.1
Batch: Backcast 1996-2026 (cycle-003), cycle 3 of the improvement loop
Runtime: 6.6 seconds in all; 1633 microseconds a round

Not a forecast: Every figure is a distribution over the simulations of a structural model, reported to compare methods and test the model. None is a prediction of what a nation will do or become.
Structural parameters: Costs, decay, vulnerability and credits are structural seed values with low or medium confidence, set by domain with single-group exceptions. Five groups have no defensible value in a single-nation model and are flagged in the parameter tables.
Other nations are frozen: One nation is simulated at a time. Every other nation stays at its 2026 rating, so rank and tiers are measured against a still field; where the simulated nation rises past others their own tiers are not re-sorted.
Starting depth and mode are defaults: The position is the National Capability Index ratings. How institutionalised each capability is, and how much was built, bought or partnered, have no data behind them yet and start from structural defaults.
Credits are calibrated, not measured: Each nation’s income is set so that its position is affordable with headroom that rises with its fiscal capacity. It is not yet fiscal capacity as a share of GDP.