Simulation 15
Germany, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 15: a poor simulation (10th percentile) of the experiment's 30. Capability index 16.98 at the 1996 position, 17.51 in 2026; 156 actions over 30 rounds and 4 shocks.
Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 15
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 6 (median simulation), 14 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 1996 position to 2026.
- Capability index
- 17.51 (+0.53)
- From 16.98
- Rank by index
- 2
- From 2
- Domains at Tier 1
- 8
- From 6
- Events
- 4 shocks
- 0 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1997 |
| 17.02 +0.037 | |
| 1998 |
| 17.08 +0.067 | |
| 1999 |
| 17.13 +0.044 | |
| 2000 |
| 17.16 +0.029 | |
| 2001 |
| 17.18 +0.021 | |
| 2002 | No actions | 17.19 +0.013 | |
| 2003 |
| 17.27 +0.079 | |
| 2004 |
| 17.40 +0.130 | |
| 2005 |
| 17.43 +0.035 | |
| 2006 |
| 17.44 +0.007 | |
| 2007 |
| 17.45 +0.005 | |
| 2008 |
| Global funding seizure | 17.32 −0.129 |
| 2009 |
| 17.37 +0.055 | |
| 2010 |
| Global funding seizure | 17.34 −0.034 |
| 2011 |
| 17.39 +0.045 | |
| 2012 |
| 17.47 +0.081 | |
| 2013 |
| 17.54 +0.071 | |
| 2014 |
| 17.56 +0.021 | |
| 2015 |
| 17.58 +0.020 | |
| 2016 |
| 17.60 +0.019 | |
| 2017 |
| 17.63 +0.029 | |
| 2018 |
| 17.66 +0.037 | |
| 2019 |
| 17.69 +0.027 | |
| 2020 |
| Severe pandemic | 17.53 −0.159 |
| 2021 |
| 17.56 +0.024 | |
| 2022 |
| Trade bloc rupture | 17.51 −0.046 |
| 2023 |
| 17.46 −0.051 | |
| 2024 |
| 17.41 −0.044 | |
| 2025 |
| 17.46 +0.043 | |
| 2026 |
| 17.51 +0.051 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 1996 | 2001 | 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | 2021 | 2026 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| National Security | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Human Capital | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Governance & Integrity | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Financial Strength | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Production & Innovation | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Trade & Investment | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −1.411 | −102.8 | −6.00 |
| No shocks | +0.486 | +31.9 | +1.00 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | 0.000 | −0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | 0.000 | +0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | 0.000 | +0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.116 | +6.9 | −1.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.208 | +14.7 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.103 | +6.6 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 1996 | 2026 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.38 | 19.81 | +6.43 | +13.00 | 0.00 | −0.35 | −0.07 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 14.82 | 20.00 | +5.18 | +5.94 | 0.00 | −0.24 | +0.37 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 14.48 | 19.42 | +4.94 | +12.71 | 0.00 | −1.12 | −0.04 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 15.36 | 19.67 | +4.31 | +11.89 | 0.00 | −0.65 | +0.29 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 16.31 | 20.00 | +3.69 | +6.74 | 0.00 | −0.30 | +0.30 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.47 | 20.00 | +3.53 | +9.38 | 0.00 | −0.34 | +0.29 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 14.06 | 17.53 | +3.47 | +3.64 | 0.00 | −0.24 | +0.07 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 16.53 | 19.96 | +3.43 | +4.45 | 0.00 | −0.37 | +0.17 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 16.83 | 19.98 | +3.15 | +19.91 | 0.00 | −0.26 | +0.20 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.59 | 19.67 | +3.08 | +8.51 | 0.00 | −0.50 | +0.09 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.99 | 19.95 | +2.96 | +8.44 | 0.00 | −0.41 | +0.66 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 17.00 | 19.96 | +2.96 | +7.85 | 0.00 | −1.33 | −0.05 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 17.08 | 19.93 | +2.85 | +3.96 | 0.00 | −0.35 | +0.01 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 17.41 | 20.00 | +2.59 | +9.96 | 0.00 | −0.42 | +0.35 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 17.45 | 20.00 | +2.55 | +5.64 | 0.00 | −0.59 | +0.48 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 17.48 | 19.83 | +2.35 | +8.68 | 0.00 | −0.42 | +0.04 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 17.91 | 20.00 | +2.09 | +8.35 | 0.00 | −0.57 | +0.10 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 18.22 | 19.73 | +1.51 | +5.98 | 0.00 | −1.05 | +0.28 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 17.33 | 18.80 | +1.47 | +3.06 | 0.00 | −1.19 | −0.01 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 18.62 | 19.97 | +1.35 | +7.47 | 0.00 | −0.88 | +0.31 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 15.45 | 16.70 | +1.25 | +2.05 | 0.00 | −0.84 | +0.04 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 18.99 | 19.62 | +0.63 | +5.19 | 0.00 | −1.04 | +0.10 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 18.13 | 18.72 | +0.59 | +4.26 | 0.00 | −1.22 | −0.05 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 18.89 | 19.42 | +0.53 | +6.47 | 0.00 | −1.26 | +0.13 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 19.65 | 20.00 | +0.35 | +2.42 | 0.00 | −0.97 | +0.04 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.52 | 18.53 | +0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.37 | +0.37 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.39 | 18.35 | −0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.37 | +0.32 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 1.83 | 1.78 | −0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.05 | +0.01 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.17 | 18.08 | −0.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.37 | +0.28 |
| Land Power | National Security | 16.81 | 16.71 | −0.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.23 | +0.13 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 15.25 | 15.07 | −0.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.23 | +0.06 |
| Air Power | National Security | 17.27 | 17.07 | −0.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.23 | +0.03 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 18.79 | 18.57 | −0.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.32 | +0.11 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 13.46 | 13.24 | −0.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.24 | +0.03 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 20.00 | 19.75 | −0.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.36 | +0.44 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 16.62 | 16.37 | −0.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.34 | +0.08 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 15.91 | 15.64 | −0.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.23 | −0.04 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 17.87 | 17.59 | −0.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.33 | +0.05 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 10.44 | 10.15 | −0.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.26 | −0.04 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 12.97 | 12.68 | −0.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.24 | −0.05 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 17.71 | 17.41 | −0.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.33 | +0.03 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 16.63 | 16.33 | −0.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.48 | +0.18 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 15.82 | 15.51 | −0.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.80 | +0.48 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.58 | 16.21 | −0.37 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.38 | +0.01 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 17.86 | 17.49 | −0.37 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.54 | +0.17 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 17.78 | 17.39 | −0.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.39 | 0.00 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 16.32 | 15.91 | −0.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.48 | +0.07 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 16.86 | 16.44 | −0.42 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.40 | −0.01 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 17.57 | 17.15 | −0.42 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.40 | −0.02 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 17.20 | 16.77 | −0.43 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.40 | −0.03 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 19.29 | 18.79 | −0.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.58 | +0.07 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 19.03 | 18.53 | −0.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.77 | +0.26 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.90 | 16.37 | −0.53 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.60 | +0.08 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 17.57 | 17.04 | −0.53 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.63 | +0.09 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.54 | 15.98 | −0.56 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.61 | +0.04 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 20.00 | 19.40 | −0.60 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.57 | −0.03 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 16.31 | 15.70 | −0.61 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.81 | +0.20 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.33 | 15.71 | −0.62 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.61 | 0.00 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 20.00 | 19.38 | −0.62 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.77 | +0.18 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 18.67 | 18.02 | −0.65 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.62 | −0.03 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 20.00 | 19.34 | −0.66 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.57 | −0.09 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 14.45 | 13.79 | −0.66 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.65 | 0.00 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 16.29 | 15.62 | −0.67 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.95 | +0.28 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 17.95 | 17.26 | −0.69 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.62 | −0.07 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 16.95 | 16.06 | −0.89 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.86 | −0.02 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 16.82 | 15.89 | −0.93 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.86 | −0.07 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 17.12 | 16.12 | −1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.21 | +0.21 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 16.72 | 15.67 | −1.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.79 | −0.26 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 16.93 | 15.82 | −1.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.14 | +0.03 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 18.38 | 17.27 | −1.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.19 | +0.08 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 18.24 | 17.00 | −1.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.19 | −0.05 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 19.97 | 18.72 | −1.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.16 | −0.08 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 18.16 | 16.82 | −1.34 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.35 | +0.01 |
Seed 15 of experiment cycle-003.e4-deu. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.