E4 · cycle-003.e4-est

Estonia, scripted, 30 years from 1996

30 simulations of 30 rounds from the 1996 position. Estonia decides by the scripted method; scripted events: Global funding seizure in year 2, Market access opening in year 8, Hybrid coercion in year 11, Global funding seizure in year 12, Trade bloc rupture in year 18, Severe pandemic in year 24, Regional war spillover in year 26.

Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seeds 1–30 · elasticity sampled within each bracket

The same configuration in other cycles: cycle 2.

Every simulation · Compare with another experiment · More experiments like this

Not a forecast

Simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values, to compare methods and test the model. Other nations stay at their 2026 ratings throughout.

Outcome across simulations

The median at 2026, with the 10th to the 90th percentile of the 30 simulations under it.

Capability index: 10.01 (−0.46); From 10.47; 9.98 to 10.02
Rank by index: 46; From 44; 46 to 46
Domains at Tier 1: 1; From 0; 1 to 1
Tier rank: 19; From 50; 19 to 19

Capability index by round

Rank by index, by round

Every objective at the position and at the horizon
Objective	1996	10th percentile	Median	90th percentile	Better
Capability indexprimary	10.47	9.98	10.01	10.02	higher
Rank by index	44	46	46	46	lower
Tier rank	50	19	19	19	lower
Domains at Tier 1	0	1	1	1	higher
Score sum	746.0	718.2	719.6	720.2	higher
Goal-weighted score	746.0	718.2	719.6	720.2	higher
Resilient score	746.0	719.4 (mean score sum over the simulations)			higher

The capability index is the mean of the three dimensions, each the mean of its domains, each the mean of its groups. Tiers are Pareto layers within each domain; the tier rank orders nations by domains held at Tier 1, then Tier 2, and so on. The goal-weighted score is the score sum unless the experiment sets a goal. The primary objective is the one the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it.

Credits

What each round’s credits went on in the median simulation. Across all simulations, build took 32 per cent, buy took 0 per cent, partner took 68 per cent of the 1,677 credits a simulation spent on actions.

Against history

Started from a reconstructed 1996 position and played along the pathway and shocks Estonia actually had, then scored against the 2026 ratings. The position is an estimate, so part of any error is the reconstruction's. The calibration summary across all fifty nations is on the cycle's page under Loop.

Index 1996: 10.47; reconstructed
Observed 2026: 11.49; the Index's rating
Simulated 2026: 10.00; 9.95 to 10.05
Skill against persistence: −0.80; group error 2.29 against 1.27 if nothing changed

Domain	1996	Observed	Simulated	Bias	Direction
Critical Technology	5.13	6.00	5.24 5.2–5.3	−0.75	wrong
Strategic Infrastructure	11.03	10.86	10.38 10.3–10.4	−0.48	wrong
National Security	6.58	7.54	7.49 7.5–7.5	−0.05	right
Human Capital	12.96	14.56	12.69 12.7–12.7	−1.87	wrong
Information & Influence	8.83	10.48	9.29 9.3–9.3	−1.19	right
Governance & Integrity	14.04	15.46	14.68 14.6–14.7	−0.78	right
Financial Strength	12.68	13.08	10.91 10.8–11.0	−2.17	wrong
Production & Innovation	11.57	12.81	9.47 9.4–9.5	−3.34	wrong
Trade & Investment	11.39	12.60	9.87 9.8–9.9	−2.72	wrong

The history it was played under: shocks and events

1998 · S02 × 0.4 The Russian financial crisis cut exports and slowed growth, though the currency board held and the damage was temporary.
2004 · S12 × 0.8 EU accession opened the single market and NATO entry anchored security, redirecting investment, trade and migration.
2007 · S04 × 0.7 The Bronze Night riots and coordinated cyberattacks on banks, ministries and media tested internal security and digital resilience.
2008 · S02 × 0.8 The global financial crisis caused a deep recession and GDP fall of about 14 per cent, with a severe property and credit contraction.
2014 · S01 × 0.5 EU-Russia sanctions and Russian counter-embargo disrupted some food exports and increased economic and security uncertainty.
2020 · S10 × 0.8 The COVID-19 pandemic strained health care and forced rapid digital schooling and remote work, though Estonia avoided some of the worst mortality.
2022 · S03 × 0.9 Russia's invasion of Ukraine, though not on Estonian territory, brought energy supply cuts, defence emergency and a large refugee influx.

The pathway: what it prioritised, period by period

1997–2001 · build · 2% each The national Tiger Leap programme connected schools to the internet and began aligning domestic law and administration with EU requirements. (Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies, Digital & AI Competence, Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls, Trade Policy & Market Access, Government Effectiveness & Public Administration)
1998–2004 · partner · 5% each Closing the EU acquis communautaire and the NATO Membership Action Plan dominated Estonian state reform and external policy. (Justice System & Fundamental Rights, Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls, Trade Policy & Market Access, Alliances & Security Cooperation, Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks)
2000–2006 · build · 5% each X-Road, the national ID card, e-services and online banking made Estonia's digital state and startup-friendly economy a central national project. (Communications & Digital Infrastructure, Government Effectiveness & Public Administration, Digital & AI Competence, Financial Infrastructure, Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship)
2004–2009 · partner · 2% each NATO membership pushed the defence forces towards interoperability, modernised equipment and early cyber awareness. (Force Generation & Mobilisation, Land Power, Maritime Power, Air Power, Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations)
2007–2013 · build · 2% each The 2007 cyberattacks turned cyber defence and digital resilience into a national security and NATO niche. (Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations, Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies, National Resilience & Crisis Management, Information Environment & Strategic Communication, Government Effectiveness & Public Administration)
2010–2014 · build · 5% each Fiscal consolidation and financial repair after the 2008 crisis locked in euro adoption and reinforced budget discipline. (Monetary & Currency Capability, Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance, Financial Regulation & Integrity, Financial Stability & Crisis Management, Economic Output & Productivity)
2014–2022 · partner · 5% each Russia's 2014 aggression triggered higher defence spending, electricity and gas decoupling from Russia, and early national AI and data investment. (Force Generation & Mobilisation, Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations, Energy Infrastructure, Energy Technologies, Artificial Intelligence)
2022–2026 · partner · 5% each The full-scale invasion of Ukraine accelerated rearmament, allied forward presence and completion of energy decoupling from Russia. (Land Power, Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment, Force Generation & Mobilisation, Energy Infrastructure, Digital & AI Competence)

Reconstruction notes (deepseek-v4-pro): The precise 1996 frontier benchmark for a small transition state is uncertain: many scores are inferred from aggregate data and may over- or understate inherited Soviet technical capacity. The mapping of real crises onto the event library is approximate, particularly for the 2007 cyberattacks and the 2022 regional war shock. Governance and digital capacities look strong in retrospect but were still young in 1996, so the established scores carry judgement.

Report

Written from the simulation record by the loop's narrator. Every figure names the query it came from, in square brackets.

Batch cycle-003. Model 0.2.0, graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.1. 30 simulations, seeds 1 to 30; probes on 10. Every figure is a distribution over simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values; it shows what the model implies under these settings, not what will happen. Other nations are frozen at their 2026 ratings. No reconstructed historical data is used in this experiment.

Headline

Estonia played 30 rounds from 1996 under the scripted method, with scripted events, 30 times. Its capability index moved from 10.47 to a median of 10.01 (−0.46), with 90 per cent of simulations between 9.98 and 10.02 [experiment_objectives].

Starting position

In 1996 the nation ranks 44 on the index against the frozen field, holds 0 of nine domains at Tier 1 and has a tier rank of 50. Its base income is 332 credits a year, calibrated so that its 2026 position is affordable with headroom for investment.

What was decided

A simulation spent a median of 1,678 credits on moves. The five groups that took most were Force Generation & Mobilisation (partner, 193 credits, 11.5 per cent); Energy Infrastructure (partner, 143 credits, 8.5 per cent); Justice System & Fundamental Rights (partner, 114 credits, 6.8 per cent); Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls (partner, 114 credits, 6.8 per cent); Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations (partner, 107 credits, 6.4 per cent) [experiment_decisions_by_group]. By mode: partner 68 per cent, build 32 per cent [experiment_decisions_by_group]. Concentration of spending (HHI) had a median of 0.065, and the most repeated action appeared in 50 per cent of rounds.

The leading domain by period: rounds 1 to 5, Governance & Integrity; rounds 6 to 10, Governance & Integrity; rounds 11 to 15, National Security; rounds 16 to 20, Financial Strength; rounds 21 to 25, National Security; rounds 26 to 30, National Security [experiment_spend_by_period].

What the world did

A median simulation saw 6 shocks and 1 upside events. The most damaging per firing were S10 (30 firings in 30 simulations, −31.3 points each); S03 (30 firings in 30 simulations, −28.7 points each); S04 (30 firings in 30 simulations, −23.6 points each) [experiment_shocks]. Upside events fired 30 times across all simulations [experiment_shocks].

The groups that lost most to shocks, per simulation: Trade Facilitation & Logistics −3.82; Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance −3.49; Investment Attraction & Projection −3.37; Labour & Employment −3.32 [experiment_shock_damage_by_group].

The edges that carried most change through the graph, per simulation: Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks to Trade Policy & Market Access (+0.25 points); Economic Output & Productivity to Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance (−0.51 points); Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks to Alliances & Security Cooperation (+0.22 points) [experiment_propagation_by_edge].

Where it ended

At 2026 the median rank is 46 (5th to 95th percentile 46 to 46), the median count of Tier 1 domains 1 (1 to 1) and the median tier rank 19; the resilient score, the mean score sum over simulations, is 719 [experiment_objectives].

Tier 1 probability changed most in: governance and integrity (0 to 100 per cent of simulations) [experiment_tiers_by_round].

Why

Without shocks the index ends +1.536 higher on average, so the shocks cost about 1.536 index points [experiment_probe_attribution].

Holding instead of following this method changes the index by −1.418: that is the method's worth against doing nothing [experiment_probe_attribution].

Removing any single one of the five largest actions changes the index by between −0.052 and +0.009, for example 2006 build Communications & Digital Infrastructure (17 credits) [experiment_probe_attribution]. The largest actions by credits come late, when income is highest, and are rarely the most valuable.

Removing the largest shock of a simulation raises the index by +0.482 on average [experiment_probe_attribution].

The replay probe reproduces the simulations exactly (index change 0.000000), so the attributions are clean [experiment_probe_attribution].

Surprises

tier_jump (warn): largest gain in one domain within five years: 6 tiers (30 simulations above 2); tiers are reported, not an objective.

retired_words (warn): e4-est/report.md: 'simulations' 1 time(s), first near line 39; use 'simulations'.

The simulation furthest from the median (seed 24) ends −0.02 from it, with 6 shocks and 1 upside events [experiment_outlier_simulations].

Comparison

This is the baseline (hold) experiment, or there is none for this nation in the batch.

Against history: from a reconstructed index of 10.47 the model ends at 10.00, where the 2026 ratings put it at 11.49. Group scores miss by 2.29 points on average, against 1.27 for assuming nothing changed (skill −0.80); the change in each domain has the right sign in 33 per cent of domains. Furthest below history: production and innovation (−3.34); furthest above: national security (−0.05) [experiment_against_history]. The starting position is reconstructed, so part of the error is the reconstruction's.

What each decision and shock was worth

Counterfactual probes on the first 10 seeds: the same simulations with one thing changed, paired seed by seed. A removed decision or shock is taken out and the other decisions replayed unchanged, so the difference is that item's worth.

Probe	Index	Score sum	Tier 1	For example
Hold instead of the method	−1.418	−103.2	−1.00
No shocks	+1.536	+100.7	+1.00
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0	0.00
Without the 1st largest decision	+0.009	+0.5	0.00	2006 build Communications & Digital Infrastructure (17 credits)
Without the 2nd largest decision	−0.025	−2.0	0.00	1998 partner Justice System & Fundamental Rights (17 credits)
Without the 3rd largest decision	−0.000	−0.2	0.00	1998 partner Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls (17 credits)
Without the 4th largest decision	−0.052	−4.0	0.00	1998 partner Trade Policy & Market Access (17 credits)
Without the 5th largest decision	−0.003	−0.3	0.00	1998 partner Alliances & Security Cooperation (17 credits)
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.482	+32.7	0.00	2020 S10 (-31.2 points)
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.422	+30.0	0.00	2022 S03 (-28.6 points)
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.007	+0.3	0.00	2007 S04 (-23.6 points)

Simulations

Three simulations told round by round, each on its own page: the one nearest the median index at the horizon, and those nearest the 10th and the 90th percentile. Every one of the 30 is listed with its outcome on the simulations page.

All 30 simulations

Events

How often each shock and upside event began across the simulations. Shocks come from the ten downside scenarios and upside events from the ten upside ones, at their yearly likelihood.

Event	Kind	Simulations	Mean round	Points
Trade bloc rupture S01	Shock	100 per cent	18.0	−14.7
Global funding seizure S02	Shock	100 per cent	7.0	−14.7
Regional war spillover S03	Shock	100 per cent	26.0	−28.7
Hybrid coercion S04	Shock	100 per cent	11.0	−23.6
Severe pandemic S10	Shock	100 per cent	24.0	−31.3
Market access opening S12	Upside	100 per cent	8.0	+22.7

Groups across simulations

Every capability group: its position, and its median and spread at the horizon across the simulations, with what the method spent on it.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	1996	2026	Change	Levels invested	Credits
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	7.53	13.69 13.66 to 13.74	+6.16	7.71	145
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	11.22	16.62 16.55 to 16.68	+5.40	7.66	82
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	10.50	15.52 15.44 to 15.61	+5.02	6.92	193
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	12.53	17.22 17.12 to 17.27	+4.69	8.03	136
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.61	14.78 14.69 to 14.90	+4.17	5.86	143
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	14.43	18.58 18.56 to 18.60	+4.15	4.67	147
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	4.78	8.72 8.60 to 8.85	+3.94	5.12	65
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	13.39	16.38 16.28 to 16.42	+2.99	3.24	42
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	9.63	12.59 12.59 to 12.60	+2.96	4.38	71
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	13.38	15.86 15.85 to 15.88	+2.48	3.48	114
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	14.88	17.08 17.03 to 17.11	+2.20	3.54	101
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	9.93	12.06 12.00 to 12.11	+2.13	4.45	60
Land Power	National Security	9.33	11.18 11.08 to 11.32	+1.85	3.00	76
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	7.69	8.55 8.52 to 8.56	+0.86	2.53	57
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	13.16	14.02 13.96 to 14.08	+0.86	2.38	49
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	15.23	15.45 15.36 to 15.54	+0.22	2.89	76
Air Power	National Security	4.67	4.74 4.71 to 4.76	+0.07	0.89	13
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	0.36	0.28 0.27 to 0.30	−0.08	0.00	0
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	13.85	13.77 13.64 to 13.86	−0.08	1.44	34
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	12.09	11.96 11.94 to 11.97	−0.13	0.00	0
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	2.51	2.15 2.14 to 2.16	−0.36	0.00	0
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	2.95	2.56 2.55 to 2.57	−0.39	0.00	0
Advanced Education	Human Capital	13.95	13.48 13.47 to 13.50	−0.47	0.00	0
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	3.43	2.95 2.93 to 2.96	−0.48	0.00	0
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	11.61	11.07 11.05 to 11.10	−0.54	0.00	0
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	12.43	11.87 11.86 to 11.90	−0.56	0.00	0
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	4.34	3.73 3.72 to 3.74	−0.61	0.00	0
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	14.70	14.08 14.04 to 14.11	−0.62	0.00	0
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	3.85	3.21 3.21 to 3.22	−0.64	0.00	0
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	14.39	13.71 13.64 to 13.78	−0.68	0.00	0
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	8.97	8.29 8.22 to 8.34	−0.68	1.74	25
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	5.95	5.13 5.09 to 5.16	−0.82	0.00	0
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	7.34	6.51 6.46 to 6.57	−0.83	0.33	4
Foundational Education	Human Capital	14.55	13.72 13.67 to 13.78	−0.83	0.00	0
Space Operations	National Security	4.58	3.74 3.72 to 3.75	−0.84	0.00	0
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	5.64	4.75 4.74 to 4.78	−0.89	0.00	0
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	14.37	13.46 13.44 to 13.47	−0.91	0.00	0
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	14.36	13.45 13.44 to 13.46	−0.91	0.00	0
Population Health	Human Capital	10.93	9.92 9.89 to 9.94	−1.01	0.00	0
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	5.62	4.51 4.47 to 4.55	−1.11	0.00	0
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	12.68	11.56 11.49 to 11.60	−1.12	0.00	0
Maritime Power	National Security	7.36	6.24 6.20 to 6.28	−1.12	0.80	13
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	5.10	3.95 3.93 to 3.96	−1.15	0.00	0
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	10.56	9.35 9.27 to 9.41	−1.21	0.00	0
Health System Capability	Human Capital	12.95	11.69 11.65 to 11.75	−1.26	0.00	0
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	13.93	12.65 12.55 to 12.75	−1.28	0.69	13
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.52	10.18 10.10 to 10.27	−1.34	0.00	0
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	8.03	6.64 6.63 to 6.65	−1.39	0.00	0
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.42	8.97 8.93 to 9.00	−1.45	0.00	0
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	7.24	5.78 5.74 to 5.82	−1.46	0.00	0
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	6.79	5.27 5.26 to 5.27	−1.52	0.00	0
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.79	10.24 10.15 to 10.31	−1.55	0.00	0
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	9.20	7.65 7.65 to 7.65	−1.55	0.00	0
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	13.30	11.72 11.70 to 11.73	−1.58	0.00	0
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	12.10	10.48 10.43 to 10.52	−1.62	0.00	0
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	8.65	6.98 6.92 to 7.02	−1.67	0.00	0
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	14.08	12.40 12.31 to 12.53	−1.68	0.00	0
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	12.25	10.52 10.46 to 10.56	−1.73	0.00	0
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	9.55	7.81 7.75 to 7.88	−1.74	0.00	0
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	13.43	11.66 11.55 to 11.80	−1.77	0.00	0
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	10.79	9.00 8.96 to 9.03	−1.79	0.00	0
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	11.12	9.12 9.05 to 9.16	−2.00	0.00	0
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	11.43	9.34 9.29 to 9.39	−2.09	0.00	0
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	9.74	7.40 7.36 to 7.42	−2.34	0.00	0
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	11.75	9.31 9.29 to 9.34	−2.44	0.00	0
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	9.07	6.61 6.58 to 6.66	−2.46	0.00	0
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	12.84	10.33 10.29 to 10.37	−2.51	0.00	0
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	11.92	9.31 9.26 to 9.40	−2.61	0.00	0
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	12.37	9.76 9.65 to 9.80	−2.61	0.00	0
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	8.53	5.86 5.79 to 5.91	−2.67	0.00	0
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	15.09	11.95 11.79 to 12.09	−3.14	0.61	19
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	11.71	8.53 8.49 to 8.58	−3.18	0.00	0
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	13.03	9.82 9.78 to 9.87	−3.21	0.00	0

Checks

The automated checks run on this experiment before anything was written about it. A warning is a candidate finding for the improvement loop.

passcredits_conservedlargest gap between credits in and credits accounted for: 8.5e-14
passscores_in_boundsscores range 0.266 to 20.000
passno_nans0 missing values in the trajectory and objectives
passprobe_replay_reproducesthe recorded moves played back reproduce the simulation to within 0.0e+00 points (10 simulations)
passledger_balancesthe edge ledger sums to the propagated change to within 8.9e-08 points
passmove_without_shocklargest one-year move in a group with no shock landing: 2.03 points; 0% of simulations have one above 3
warntier_jumplargest gain in one domain within five years: 6 tiers (30 simulations above 2); tiers are reported, not an objective
passall_tier1_from_outside_top10starting rank 44; 0 simulations reach Tier 1 in all nine domains
passsaturation_high0% of simulations end with a group at 20 that did not start there (median 0 groups)
passsaturation_low0% of simulations end with a group at 0 that did not start there (median 0 groups)
passspend_concentrationmedian concentration of spending across groups (HHI) 0.065; most funded group hard.national_security.force_generation_and_mobilisation
passsame_actionthe most repeated move (group and mode) appears in a median 50% of rounds
passregression_index_p50index_p50 moved 2.7% since cycle-002 (9.74 to 10.01); versions changed (0.1.0 to 0.1.1, graph 0.2.0 to 0.2.0)
passregression_score_sum_p50score_sum_p50 moved 3.1% since cycle-002 (697.87 to 719.57); versions changed (0.1.0 to 0.1.1, graph 0.2.0 to 0.2.0)

Settings and versions

Experiment cycle-003.e4-est. Every simulation records the model, graph and parameter versions, the scenario, the method and its seed, so it can be reproduced exactly.

Nation: Estonia (EST)
Position: A reconstructed 1996 position, aligned to the Index's scale
Method: Scripted. Actions fixed in advance by the experiment: for a backcast, the nation's historical pathway.
Scenario: Scripted events: Global funding seizure in year 2, Market access opening in year 8, Hybrid coercion in year 11, Global funding seizure in year 12, Trade bloc rupture in year 18, Severe pandemic in year 24, Regional war spillover in year 26
Objective: Capability index, the primary objective the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it
Horizon: 30 rounds, 1996 to 2026
Simulations: 30 seeds, 1 to 30. Every method in the batch faces the same draws for the same seed.
Graph elasticities: Drawn for each simulation, uniformly within each edge’s bracket
Income: Base credits 331.6 a round, moving with the economic groups
Versions: Model 0.2.0, Capability Dependency Graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.1
Batch: Backcast 1996-2026 (cycle-003), cycle 3 of the improvement loop
Runtime: 7.7 seconds in all; 1810 microseconds a round

Not a forecast: Every figure is a distribution over the simulations of a structural model, reported to compare methods and test the model. None is a prediction of what a nation will do or become.
Structural parameters: Costs, decay, vulnerability and credits are structural seed values with low or medium confidence, set by domain with single-group exceptions. Five groups have no defensible value in a single-nation model and are flagged in the parameter tables.
Other nations are frozen: One nation is simulated at a time. Every other nation stays at its 2026 rating, so rank and tiers are measured against a still field; where the simulated nation rises past others their own tiers are not re-sorted.
Starting depth and mode are defaults: The position is the National Capability Index ratings. How institutionalised each capability is, and how much was built, bought or partnered, have no data behind them yet and start from structural defaults.
Credits are calibrated, not measured: Each nation’s income is set so that its position is affordable with headroom that rises with its fiscal capacity. It is not yet fiscal capacity as a share of GDP.