E4 · cycle-002.e4-est

Estonia, scripted, 30 years from 1996

30 simulations of 30 rounds from the 1996 position. Estonia decides by the scripted method; scripted events: Global funding seizure in year 2, Market access opening in year 8, Hybrid coercion in year 11, Global funding seizure in year 12, Trade bloc rupture in year 18, Severe pandemic in year 24, Regional war spillover in year 26.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seeds 1–30 · elasticity sampled within each bracket

The same configuration in other cycles: cycle 3.

Every simulation · Compare with another experiment · More experiments like this

Not a forecast

Simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values, to compare methods and test the model. Other nations stay at their 2026 ratings throughout.

Outcome across simulations

The median at 2026, with the 10th to the 90th percentile of the 30 simulations under it.

Capability index: 9.74 (−0.72); From 10.47; 9.71 to 9.76
Rank by index: 48; From 44; 48 to 48
Domains at Tier 1: 1; From 0; 1 to 1
Tier rank: 19; From 50; 19 to 19

Capability index by round

Rank by index, by round

Every objective at the position and at the horizon
Objective	1996	10th percentile	Median	90th percentile	Better
Capability indexprimary	10.47	9.71	9.74	9.76	higher
Rank by index	44	48	48	48	lower
Tier rank	50	19	19	19	lower
Domains at Tier 1	0	1	1	1	higher
Score sum	746.0	695.7	697.9	698.9	higher
Goal-weighted score	746.0	695.7	697.9	698.9	higher
Resilient score	746.0	697.5 (mean score sum over the simulations)			higher

The capability index is the mean of the three dimensions, each the mean of its domains, each the mean of its groups. Tiers are Pareto layers within each domain; the tier rank orders nations by domains held at Tier 1, then Tier 2, and so on. The goal-weighted score is the score sum unless the experiment sets a goal. The primary objective is the one the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it.

Credits

What each round’s credits went on in the median simulation. Across all simulations, build took 33 per cent, buy took 0 per cent, partner took 67 per cent of the 1,632 credits a simulation spent on actions.

Against history

Started from a reconstructed 1996 position and played along the pathway and shocks Estonia actually had, then scored against the 2026 ratings. The position is an estimate, so part of any error is the reconstruction's. The calibration summary across all fifty nations is on the cycle's page under Loop.

Index 1996: 10.47; reconstructed
Observed 2026: 11.49; the Index's rating
Simulated 2026: 9.74; 9.68 to 9.79
Skill against persistence: −0.97; group error 2.51 against 1.27 if nothing changed

Domain	1996	Observed	Simulated	Bias	Direction
Critical Technology	5.13	6.00	4.27 4.2–4.3	−1.73	wrong
Strategic Infrastructure	11.03	10.86	10.22 10.2–10.3	−0.64	wrong
National Security	6.58	7.54	6.80 6.7–6.8	−0.74	wrong
Human Capital	12.96	14.56	12.81 12.8–12.8	−1.75	wrong
Information & Influence	8.83	10.48	9.11 9.1–9.2	−1.37	right
Governance & Integrity	14.04	15.46	14.55 14.5–14.6	−0.91	right
Financial Strength	12.68	13.08	10.86 10.8–10.9	−2.21	wrong
Production & Innovation	11.57	12.81	9.40 9.3–9.4	−3.41	wrong
Trade & Investment	11.39	12.60	9.63 9.6–9.7	−2.97	wrong

The history it was played under: shocks and events

1998 · S02 × 0.4 The Russian financial crisis cut exports and slowed growth, though the currency board held and the damage was temporary.
2004 · S12 × 0.8 EU accession opened the single market and NATO entry anchored security, redirecting investment, trade and migration.
2007 · S04 × 0.7 The Bronze Night riots and coordinated cyberattacks on banks, ministries and media tested internal security and digital resilience.
2008 · S02 × 0.8 The global financial crisis caused a deep recession and GDP fall of about 14 per cent, with a severe property and credit contraction.
2014 · S01 × 0.5 EU-Russia sanctions and Russian counter-embargo disrupted some food exports and increased economic and security uncertainty.
2020 · S10 × 0.8 The COVID-19 pandemic strained health care and forced rapid digital schooling and remote work, though Estonia avoided some of the worst mortality.
2022 · S03 × 0.9 Russia's invasion of Ukraine, though not on Estonian territory, brought energy supply cuts, defence emergency and a large refugee influx.

The pathway: what it prioritised, period by period

1997–2001 · build · 2% each The national Tiger Leap programme connected schools to the internet and began aligning domestic law and administration with EU requirements. (Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies, Digital & AI Competence, Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls, Trade Policy & Market Access, Government Effectiveness & Public Administration)
1998–2004 · partner · 5% each Closing the EU acquis communautaire and the NATO Membership Action Plan dominated Estonian state reform and external policy. (Justice System & Fundamental Rights, Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls, Trade Policy & Market Access, Alliances & Security Cooperation, Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks)
2000–2006 · build · 5% each X-Road, the national ID card, e-services and online banking made Estonia's digital state and startup-friendly economy a central national project. (Communications & Digital Infrastructure, Government Effectiveness & Public Administration, Digital & AI Competence, Financial Infrastructure, Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship)
2004–2009 · partner · 2% each NATO membership pushed the defence forces towards interoperability, modernised equipment and early cyber awareness. (Force Generation & Mobilisation, Land Power, Maritime Power, Air Power, Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations)
2007–2013 · build · 2% each The 2007 cyberattacks turned cyber defence and digital resilience into a national security and NATO niche. (Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations, Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies, National Resilience & Crisis Management, Information Environment & Strategic Communication, Government Effectiveness & Public Administration)
2010–2014 · build · 5% each Fiscal consolidation and financial repair after the 2008 crisis locked in euro adoption and reinforced budget discipline. (Monetary & Currency Capability, Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance, Financial Regulation & Integrity, Financial Stability & Crisis Management, Economic Output & Productivity)
2014–2022 · partner · 5% each Russia's 2014 aggression triggered higher defence spending, electricity and gas decoupling from Russia, and early national AI and data investment. (Force Generation & Mobilisation, Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations, Energy Infrastructure, Energy Technologies, Artificial Intelligence)
2022–2026 · partner · 5% each The full-scale invasion of Ukraine accelerated rearmament, allied forward presence and completion of energy decoupling from Russia. (Land Power, Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment, Force Generation & Mobilisation, Energy Infrastructure, Digital & AI Competence)

Reconstruction notes (deepseek-v4-pro): The precise 1996 frontier benchmark for a small transition state is uncertain: many scores are inferred from aggregate data and may over- or understate inherited Soviet technical capacity. The mapping of real crises onto the event library is approximate, particularly for the 2007 cyberattacks and the 2022 regional war shock. Governance and digital capacities look strong in retrospect but were still young in 1996, so the established scores carry judgement.

Report

Written from the simulation record by the loop's narrator. Every figure names the query it came from, in square brackets.

Batch cycle-002. Model 0.1.0, graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.0. 30 simulations, seeds 1 to 30; probes on 10. Every figure is a distribution over simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values; it shows what the model implies under these settings, not what will happen. Other nations are frozen at their 2026 ratings. No reconstructed historical data is used in this experiment.

Headline

Estonia played 30 rounds from 1996 under the scripted method, with scripted events, 30 times. Its capability index moved from 10.47 to a median of 9.74 (−0.72), with 90 per cent of simulations between 9.71 and 9.76 [experiment_objectives].

Starting position

In 1996 the nation ranks 44 on the index against the frozen field, holds 0 of nine domains at Tier 1 and has a tier rank of 50. Its base income is 295 credits a year, calibrated so that its 2026 position is affordable with headroom for investment.

What was decided

A simulation spent a median of 1,634 credits on moves. The five groups that took most were Force Generation & Mobilisation (partner, 170 credits, 10.4 per cent); Energy Infrastructure (partner, 122 credits, 7.5 per cent); Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations (partner, 110 credits, 6.7 per cent); Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls (partner, 100 credits, 6.2 per cent); Trade Policy & Market Access (partner, 100 credits, 6.2 per cent) [experiment_decisions_by_group]. By mode: partner 67 per cent, build 33 per cent [experiment_decisions_by_group]. Concentration of spending (HHI) had a median of 0.060, and the most repeated action appeared in 50 per cent of rounds.

The leading domain by period: rounds 1 to 5, Governance & Integrity; rounds 6 to 10, Governance & Integrity; rounds 11 to 15, National Security; rounds 16 to 20, Financial Strength; rounds 21 to 25, National Security; rounds 26 to 30, National Security [experiment_spend_by_period].

What the world did

A median simulation saw 6 shocks and 1 upside events. The most damaging per firing were S10 (30 firings in 30 simulations, −37.0 points each); S03 (30 firings in 30 simulations, −34.6 points each); S04 (30 firings in 30 simulations, −28.2 points each) [experiment_shocks]. Upside events fired 30 times across all simulations [experiment_shocks].

The groups that lost most to shocks, per simulation: Trade Facilitation & Logistics −3.82; Economic Leverage & Dependence −3.69; Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance −3.44; Investment Attraction & Projection −3.37 [experiment_shock_damage_by_group].

The edges that carried most change through the graph, per simulation: Semiconductors & Advanced Computing to Artificial Intelligence (−0.64 points); Economic Output & Productivity to Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance (−0.57 points); Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks to Trade Policy & Market Access (+0.27 points) [experiment_propagation_by_edge].

Where it ended

At 2026 the median rank is 48 (5th to 95th percentile 48 to 48), the median count of Tier 1 domains 1 (1 to 1) and the median tier rank 19; the resilient score, the mean score sum over simulations, is 698 [experiment_objectives].

Tier 1 probability changed most in: governance and integrity (0 to 100 per cent of simulations) [experiment_tiers_by_round].

Why

Without shocks the index ends +1.981 higher on average, so the shocks cost about 1.981 index points [experiment_probe_attribution].

Holding instead of following this method changes the index by −1.530: that is the method's worth against doing nothing [experiment_probe_attribution].

Removing any single one of the five largest actions changes the index by between −0.035 and +0.024, for example 1998 partner Justice System & Fundamental Rights (15 credits) [experiment_probe_attribution]. The largest actions by credits come late, when income is highest, and are rarely the most valuable.

Removing the largest shock of a simulation raises the index by +0.587 on average [experiment_probe_attribution].

The replay probe reproduces the simulations exactly (index change 0.000000), so the attributions are clean [experiment_probe_attribution].

Surprises

tier_jump (warn): largest gain in one domain within five years: 6 tiers (30 simulations above 2).

saturation_low (warn): 97% of simulations end with a group at 0 that did not start there (median 1 groups).

retired_words (warn): e4-est/report.md: 'simulations' 2 time(s), first near line 39; use 'simulations'.

The simulation furthest from the median (seed 19) ends −0.04 from it, with 6 shocks and 1 upside events [experiment_outlier_simulations].

Comparison

This is the baseline (hold) experiment, or there is none for this nation in the batch.

Against history: from a reconstructed index of 10.47 the model ends at 9.74, where the 2026 ratings put it at 11.49. Group scores miss by 2.51 points on average, against 1.27 for assuming nothing changed (skill −0.97); the change in each domain has the right sign in 22 per cent of domains. Furthest below history: production and innovation (−3.41); furthest above: strategic infrastructure (−0.64) [experiment_against_history]. The starting position is reconstructed, so part of the error is the reconstruction's.

What each decision and shock was worth

Counterfactual probes on the first 10 seeds: the same simulations with one thing changed, paired seed by seed. A removed decision or shock is taken out and the other decisions replayed unchanged, so the difference is that item's worth.

Probe	Index	Score sum	Tier 1	For example
Hold instead of the method	−1.530	−111.2	−1.00
No shocks	+1.981	+137.0	+2.00
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0	0.00
Without the 1st largest decision	−0.007	−0.5	0.00	1998 partner Justice System & Fundamental Rights (15 credits)
Without the 2nd largest decision	+0.008	+0.6	−0.80	1998 partner Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls (15 credits)
Without the 3rd largest decision	−0.035	−2.9	0.00	1998 partner Trade Policy & Market Access (15 credits)
Without the 4th largest decision	+0.024	+1.9	−0.20	1998 partner Alliances & Security Cooperation (15 credits)
Without the 5th largest decision	−0.023	−1.5	0.00	1998 partner Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks (15 credits)
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.587	+41.1	0.00	2020 S10 (-36.9 points)
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.500	+36.3	0.00	2022 S03 (-34.6 points)
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.071	+5.2	0.00	2007 S04 (-28.2 points)

Simulations

Three simulations told round by round, each on its own page: the one nearest the median index at the horizon, and those nearest the 10th and the 90th percentile. Every one of the 30 is listed with its outcome on the simulations page.

All 30 simulations

Events

How often each shock and upside event began across the simulations. Shocks come from the ten downside scenarios and upside events from the ten upside ones, at their yearly likelihood.

Event	Kind	Simulations	Mean round	Points
Trade bloc rupture S01	Shock	100 per cent	18.0	−18.0
Global funding seizure S02	Shock	100 per cent	7.0	−16.1
Regional war spillover S03	Shock	100 per cent	26.0	−34.6
Hybrid coercion S04	Shock	100 per cent	11.0	−28.2
Severe pandemic S10	Shock	100 per cent	24.0	−37.0
Market access opening S12	Upside	100 per cent	8.0	+22.7

Groups across simulations

Every capability group: its position, and its median and spread at the horizon across the simulations, with what the method spent on it.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	1996	2026	Change	Levels invested	Credits
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	7.53	13.48 13.27 to 13.59	+5.95	7.78	143
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	11.22	17.00 16.94 to 17.06	+5.78	8.09	90
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	12.53	17.20 17.11 to 17.26	+4.67	8.13	130
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	10.50	14.91 14.83 to 14.98	+4.41	6.25	170
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	13.39	17.44 17.36 to 17.51	+4.05	4.31	57
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	4.78	8.66 8.41 to 8.82	+3.88	5.86	74
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	14.43	18.20 18.19 to 18.22	+3.77	4.31	130
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.61	14.06 13.97 to 14.24	+3.45	5.14	122
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	9.63	12.09 12.08 to 12.09	+2.46	3.90	62
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	9.93	12.23 12.18 to 12.29	+2.30	4.69	64
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	13.38	15.49 15.48 to 15.51	+2.11	3.10	101
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	14.88	16.85 16.82 to 16.88	+1.97	3.33	92
Land Power	National Security	9.33	10.67 10.55 to 10.77	+1.34	2.66	65
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	13.16	13.86 13.80 to 13.92	+0.70	2.24	46
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	15.23	15.16 15.08 to 15.20	−0.07	2.58	67
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	7.69	7.60 7.57 to 7.64	−0.09	2.23	48
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	13.85	13.72 13.67 to 13.79	−0.13	1.41	33
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	12.09	11.95 11.94 to 11.97	−0.14	0.00	0
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	0.36	0.00 0.00 to 0.00	−0.36	0.00	0
Advanced Education	Human Capital	13.95	13.49 13.48 to 13.51	−0.46	0.00	0
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	11.61	11.07 11.05 to 11.09	−0.54	0.00	0
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	12.43	11.88 11.87 to 11.90	−0.55	0.00	0
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	8.97	8.41 8.31 to 8.48	−0.56	2.13	31
Air Power	National Security	4.67	4.10 4.06 to 4.13	−0.57	1.19	18
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	14.70	14.08 14.04 to 14.11	−0.62	0.00	0
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	14.39	13.69 13.62 to 13.74	−0.70	0.00	0
Foundational Education	Human Capital	14.55	13.73 13.68 to 13.79	−0.82	0.00	0
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	14.37	13.47 13.44 to 13.47	−0.90	0.00	0
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	14.36	13.45 13.44 to 13.46	−0.91	0.00	0
Population Health	Human Capital	10.93	9.92 9.89 to 9.94	−1.01	0.00	0
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	12.68	11.53 11.47 to 11.58	−1.15	0.00	0
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	13.30	12.10 12.06 to 12.14	−1.20	0.39	6
Health System Capability	Human Capital	12.95	11.71 11.66 to 11.76	−1.24	0.00	0
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	7.34	6.05 5.89 to 6.26	−1.29	0.92	11
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	13.93	12.63 12.57 to 12.70	−1.30	0.70	14
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.52	10.21 10.13 to 10.27	−1.31	0.00	0
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	10.56	9.11 9.02 to 9.22	−1.45	0.00	0
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.42	8.91 8.87 to 8.95	−1.51	0.00	0
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.79	10.27 10.20 to 10.33	−1.52	0.00	0
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	12.10	10.54 10.47 to 10.59	−1.56	0.00	0
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	5.95	4.33 4.29 to 4.37	−1.62	0.00	0
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	4.34	2.66 2.65 to 2.67	−1.68	0.00	0
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	14.08	12.36 12.27 to 12.49	−1.72	0.00	0
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	13.43	11.70 11.61 to 11.84	−1.73	0.00	0
Maritime Power	National Security	7.36	5.63 5.59 to 5.66	−1.73	1.04	18
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	12.25	10.52 10.46 to 10.57	−1.73	0.00	0
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	5.64	3.89 3.87 to 3.92	−1.75	0.00	0
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	2.95	1.19 1.17 to 1.21	−1.76	0.00	0
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	10.79	8.98 8.94 to 9.02	−1.81	0.00	0
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	9.20	7.38 7.38 to 7.38	−1.82	0.00	0
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	3.43	1.57 1.51 to 1.62	−1.86	0.00	0
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	8.03	6.15 6.14 to 6.15	−1.88	0.00	0
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	9.55	7.62 7.55 to 7.69	−1.93	0.00	0
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	3.85	1.85 1.84 to 1.85	−2.00	0.00	0
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	2.51	0.49 0.48 to 0.50	−2.02	0.00	0
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	8.65	6.60 6.52 to 6.65	−2.05	0.00	0
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	11.12	9.04 8.97 to 9.07	−2.08	0.00	0
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	11.43	9.32 9.26 to 9.37	−2.11	0.00	0
Space Operations	National Security	4.58	2.47 2.38 to 2.52	−2.11	0.00	0
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	5.62	3.51 3.47 to 3.56	−2.11	0.00	0
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	12.84	10.64 10.55 to 10.70	−2.20	0.29	6
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	7.24	5.03 4.99 to 5.09	−2.21	0.00	0
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	11.75	9.30 9.28 to 9.33	−2.45	0.00	0
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	6.79	4.29 4.29 to 4.30	−2.50	0.00	0
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	5.10	2.53 2.43 to 2.60	−2.57	0.00	0
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	12.37	9.75 9.65 to 9.80	−2.62	0.00	0
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	11.92	9.28 9.22 to 9.36	−2.64	0.00	0
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	9.74	7.09 7.05 to 7.11	−2.65	0.00	0
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	15.09	12.42 12.19 to 12.62	−2.67	1.09	35
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	9.07	6.07 6.03 to 6.13	−3.00	0.00	0
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	13.03	9.82 9.77 to 9.86	−3.21	0.00	0
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	11.71	8.47 8.41 to 8.52	−3.24	0.00	0
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	8.53	4.76 4.69 to 4.91	−3.77	0.00	0

Checks

The automated checks run on this experiment before anything was written about it. A warning is a candidate finding for the improvement loop.

passcredits_conservedlargest gap between credits in and credits accounted for: 2.8e-14
passscores_in_boundsscores range 0.000 to 20.000
passno_nans0 missing values in the trajectory and objectives
passprobe_replay_reproducesthe recorded moves played back reproduce the simulation to within 0.0e+00 points (10 simulations)
passledger_balancesthe edge ledger sums to the propagated change to within 9.8e-07 points
passmove_without_shocklargest one-year move in a group with no shock landing: 1.82 points; 0% of simulations have one above 3
warntier_jumplargest gain in one domain within five years: 6 tiers (30 simulations above 2)
passall_tier1_from_outside_top10starting rank 44; 0 simulations reach Tier 1 in all nine domains
passsaturation_high0% of simulations end with a group at 20 that did not start there (median 0 groups)
warnsaturation_low97% of simulations end with a group at 0 that did not start there (median 1 groups)
passspend_concentrationmedian concentration of spending across groups (HHI) 0.060; most funded group hard.national_security.force_generation_and_mobilisation
passsame_actionthe most repeated move (group and mode) appears in a median 50% of rounds

Settings and versions

Experiment cycle-002.e4-est. Every simulation records the model, graph and parameter versions, the scenario, the method and its seed, so it can be reproduced exactly.

Nation: Estonia (EST)
Position: A reconstructed 1996 position, aligned to the Index's scale
Method: Scripted. Actions fixed in advance by the experiment: for a backcast, the nation's historical pathway.
Scenario: Scripted events: Global funding seizure in year 2, Market access opening in year 8, Hybrid coercion in year 11, Global funding seizure in year 12, Trade bloc rupture in year 18, Severe pandemic in year 24, Regional war spillover in year 26
Objective: Capability index, the primary objective the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it
Horizon: 30 rounds, 1996 to 2026
Simulations: 30 seeds, 1 to 30. Every method in the batch faces the same draws for the same seed.
Graph elasticities: Drawn for each simulation, uniformly within each edge’s bracket
Income: Base credits 294.8 a round, moving with the economic groups
Versions: Model 0.1.0, Capability Dependency Graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.0
Batch: Backcast 1996-2026 (cycle-002), cycle 2 of the improvement loop
Runtime: 4.4 seconds in all; 1063 microseconds a round

Not a forecast: Every figure is a distribution over the simulations of a structural model, reported to compare methods and test the model. None is a prediction of what a nation will do or become.
Structural parameters: Costs, decay, vulnerability and credits are structural seed values with low or medium confidence, set by domain with single-group exceptions. Five groups have no defensible value in a single-nation model and are flagged in the parameter tables.
Other nations are frozen: One nation is simulated at a time. Every other nation stays at its 2026 rating, so rank and tiers are measured against a still field; where the simulated nation rises past others their own tiers are not re-sorted.
Starting depth and mode are defaults: The position is the National Capability Index ratings. How institutionalised each capability is, and how much was built, bought or partnered, have no data behind them yet and start from structural defaults.
Credits are calibrated, not measured: Each nation’s income is set so that its position is affordable with headroom that rises with its fiscal capacity. It is not yet fiscal capacity as a share of GDP.