Round 2025
Round 29 of 30 in simulation 3 of Ethiopia, scripted, 30 years from 1996: 5 actions, and the index +0.031 to 4.27.
Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1
State in and state out
The simulation as it came into 2025 (the end of 2024) and as it left it.
- Capability index
- 4.27 (+0.032)
- In: 4.24
- Rank by index
- 135
- In: 136
- Domains at Tier 1
- 0
- In: 0
- Credits carried
- 45
- In: 28
| Domain | In | Out | Change | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 1.92 | 1.94 | +0.016 | 12 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 4.83 | 4.87 | +0.042 | 10 |
| National Security | 4.00 | 3.99 | −0.008 | 9 |
| Human Capital | 5.39 | 5.44 | +0.054 | 16 → 15 |
| Information & Influence | 4.41 | 4.42 | +0.008 | 14 |
| Governance & Integrity | 5.88 | 5.95 | +0.071 | 19 → 18 |
| Financial Strength | 3.93 | 3.99 | +0.062 | 31 |
| Production & Innovation | 4.05 | 4.07 | +0.021 | 20 |
| Trade & Investment | 3.75 | 3.77 | +0.017 | 18 |
Decision, shocks and propagation
What happened in 2025: the credits, the scripted method's decision and its actions, any shocks and upside events, the tier changes, and the groups that moved most, split into what was invested, lost to decay, struck by events and carried through the dependency graph.
Credits. Income 94, plus 28 carried in. Maintenance 68. Spent 9 on actions (partner 9). 45 carried over.
- PartnerFiscal Capacity & Public Finance2 credits for 0.14 levelsscripted_history
- PartnerEnergy Infrastructure2 credits for 0.13 levelsscripted_history
- PartnerCommunications & Digital Infrastructure2 credits for 0.14 levelsscripted_history
- PartnerDigital & AI Competence2 credits for 0.17 levelsscripted_history
- PartnerNational Resilience & Crisis Management2 credits for 0.10 levelsscripted_history
Earlier events still landing: +1.8 points this round.
Tiers. Human Capital Tier 16 to 15; Governance & Integrity Tier 19 to 18.
| Moved most | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | +0.23 | +0.20 | 0.00 | +0.03 | −0.01 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | +0.18 | +0.14 | 0.00 | +0.04 | 0.00 |
| Digital & AI Competence | +0.17 | +0.17 | 0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 |
| Energy Infrastructure | +0.17 | +0.12 | 0.00 | +0.06 | −0.01 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | +0.16 | +0.14 | 0.00 | +0.03 | −0.01 |
| Internal Security & Order | +0.13 | +0.10 | 0.00 | +0.03 | 0.00 |