Median simulation · cycle-003.e4-eth

Simulation 3

Ethiopia, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 3: median simulation of the experiment's 30. Capability index 5.96 at the 1996 position, 4.31 in 2026; 170 actions over 30 rounds and 7 shocks.

Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 3

The experiment · The other representative simulations: 29 (a poor simulation (10th percentile)), 5 (a good simulation (90th percentile))

Outcome

From the 1996 position to 2026.

Capability index: 4.31 (−1.65); From 5.96
Rank by index: 135; From 97
Domains at Tier 1: 0; From 0
Events: 7 shocks; 2 upside events

Trajectory by domain

The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.

ShockUpside event

Capability index by round

Pathway, round by round

Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.

Round	Decision	Events	Index
1997	Build Land Power 6 Build Force Generation & Mobilisation 6 Build Air Power 6 Build Intelligence & Assessment 6 Build Internal Security & Order 1		5.96 +0.003
1998	Build Land Power 6 Build Force Generation & Mobilisation 6 Build Air Power 6 Build Intelligence & Assessment 6 Build Internal Security & Order 1	Regional war spillover	5.66 −0.302
1999	Build Land Power 6 Build Force Generation & Mobilisation 6 Build Air Power 6 Build Intelligence & Assessment 6 Build Internal Security & Order 1		5.66 +0.003
2000	Build Land Power 6 Build Force Generation & Mobilisation 6 Build Air Power 6 Build Intelligence & Assessment 6 Build Internal Security & Order 2		5.67 +0.003
2001	Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 2 Build Transport Infrastructure 2 Build Foundational Education 2 Build Population Health 2 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 2		5.67 +0.003
2002	Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 2 Build Transport Infrastructure 2 Build Foundational Education 2 Build Population Health 2 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 2	Breadbasket failure	5.28 −0.389
2003	Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 2 Build Transport Infrastructure 2 Build Foundational Education 2 Build Population Health 2 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 2		5.28 −0.005
2004	Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 2 Build Transport Infrastructure 2 Build Foundational Education 2 Build Population Health 2 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 2		5.27 −0.006
2005	Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 2 Build Transport Infrastructure 2 Build Foundational Education 2 Build Population Health 2 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 2 Build Transport Infrastructure 2 Build Energy Infrastructure 2 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 2 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 2 Build Technical & Vocational Skills 2		5.27 −0.001
2006	Build Transport Infrastructure 2 Build Energy Infrastructure 2 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 2 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 2 Build Technical & Vocational Skills 2		5.27 −0.001
2007	Build Transport Infrastructure 2 Build Energy Infrastructure 2 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 2 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 2 Build Technical & Vocational Skills 2		5.27 0.000
2008	Build Transport Infrastructure 2 Build Energy Infrastructure 2 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 2 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 2 Build Technical & Vocational Skills 2	Breadbasket failure	5.04 −0.225
2009	Build Transport Infrastructure 2 Build Energy Infrastructure 2 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 2 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 2 Build Technical & Vocational Skills 2		5.04 +0.003
2010	Build Transport Infrastructure 2 Build Energy Infrastructure 2 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 2 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 2 Build Technical & Vocational Skills 2 Build Energy Infrastructure 5 Build Transport Infrastructure 5 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 5 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 5 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 5		5.05 +0.005
2011	Build Energy Infrastructure 5 Build Transport Infrastructure 5 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 5 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 5 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 5	Breadbasket failure	4.79 −0.257
2012	Build Energy Infrastructure 5 Build Transport Infrastructure 5 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 5 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 5 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 5		4.80 +0.008
2013	Build Energy Infrastructure 5 Build Transport Infrastructure 5 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 5 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 5 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 5		4.81 +0.009
2014	Build Energy Infrastructure 5 Build Transport Infrastructure 5 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 5 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 5 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 5		4.82 +0.011
2015	Build Energy Infrastructure 5 Build Transport Infrastructure 5 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 5 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 5 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 5 Partner Industrial & Sectoral Base 2 Partner Transport Infrastructure 2 Partner Communications & Digital Infrastructure 2 Partner Trade Facilitation & Logistics 2 Partner Export Capability & Sophistication 2	Breadbasket failure	4.54 −0.279
2016	Partner Industrial & Sectoral Base 2 Partner Transport Infrastructure 2 Partner Communications & Digital Infrastructure 2 Partner Trade Facilitation & Logistics 2 Partner Export Capability & Sophistication 2		4.56 +0.016
2017	Partner Industrial & Sectoral Base 2 Partner Transport Infrastructure 2 Partner Communications & Digital Infrastructure 2 Partner Trade Facilitation & Logistics 2 Partner Export Capability & Sophistication 2		4.57 +0.013
2018	Partner Industrial & Sectoral Base 2 Partner Transport Infrastructure 2 Partner Communications & Digital Infrastructure 2 Partner Trade Facilitation & Logistics 2 Partner Export Capability & Sophistication 2		4.58 +0.010
2019	Partner Industrial & Sectoral Base 2 Partner Transport Infrastructure 2 Partner Communications & Digital Infrastructure 2 Partner Trade Facilitation & Logistics 2 Partner Export Capability & Sophistication 2		4.59 +0.009
2020	Partner Industrial & Sectoral Base 2 Partner Transport Infrastructure 2 Partner Communications & Digital Infrastructure 2 Partner Trade Facilitation & Logistics 2 Partner Export Capability & Sophistication 2 Build National Resilience & Crisis Management 5 Build Health System Capability 5 Build Population Health 5 Build Land Power 5 Build Internal Security & Order 5	Severe pandemicRegional war spillover	4.16 −0.429
2021	Build National Resilience & Crisis Management 5 Build Health System Capability 5 Build Population Health 5 Build Land Power 5 Build Internal Security & Order 5		4.17 +0.005
2022	Build National Resilience & Crisis Management 4 Build Health System Capability 4 Build Population Health 4 Build Land Power 4 Build Internal Security & Order 4	Clean power threshold	4.18 +0.014
2023	Partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 2 Partner Energy Infrastructure 2 Partner Communications & Digital Infrastructure 2 Partner Digital & AI Competence 2 Partner National Resilience & Crisis Management 2	Debt service reset	4.21 +0.027
2024	Partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 2 Partner Energy Infrastructure 2 Partner Communications & Digital Infrastructure 2 Partner Digital & AI Competence 2 Partner National Resilience & Crisis Management 2		4.24 +0.031
2025	Partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 2 Partner Energy Infrastructure 2 Partner Communications & Digital Infrastructure 2 Partner Digital & AI Competence 2 Partner National Resilience & Crisis Management 2		4.27 +0.031
2026	Partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 2 Partner Energy Infrastructure 2 Partner Communications & Digital Infrastructure 2 Partner Digital & AI Competence 2 Partner National Resilience & Crisis Management 2		4.31 +0.036

Credits

What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.

Tiers by round

Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.

Domain	1996					2001					2006					2011					2016					2021					2026
Critical Technology	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12
Strategic Infrastructure	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	10	10	10	10	10	9	9	10	10	10	9	9	11	10	10	10	10	10	10
National Security	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	9	9	9	9	9	9	9
Human Capital	13	13	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	15	15	15	14	15	15	15	15	15	16	16	16	16	16	15	15
Information & Influence	11	11	11	11	11	11	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14
Governance & Integrity	16	16	16	16	16	16	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	18	18
Financial Strength	22	22	23	23	23	23	24	24	25	25	25	25	25	25	25	27	27	27	27	29	29	29	29	29	31	31	31	31	31	31	31
Production & Innovation	18	18	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	19	20	20	20	20	20	20	20
Trade & Investment	15	15	16	16	16	16	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	18	18	19	19	19	19	18	18	17	17	18	18	18	18	18	18	18

Probes

What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds, this one among them: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.

Probe	Index	Score sum
Hold instead of the method	−0.441	−34.1
No shocks	+2.309	+163.0
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0
Without the 1st largest decision	+0.002	+0.1
Without the 2nd largest decision	+0.002	+0.1
Without the 3rd largest decision	+0.002	+0.1
Without the 4th largest decision	+0.001	+0.0
Without the 5th largest decision	+0.002	+0.1
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.391	+27.5
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.369	+26.6
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.282	+20.4

Every group over the simulation

Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	1996	2026	Change	Invested	Events	Graph
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	5.89	6.38	+0.49	+1.69	−1.18	−0.02
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	6.27	6.65	+0.38	+2.75	−2.06	−0.31
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	−0.03
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	1.06	0.84	−0.22	0.00	−0.13	−0.09
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	1.32	1.07	−0.25	0.00	−0.19	−0.06
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	1.55	1.26	−0.29	0.00	−0.23	−0.06
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	6.96	6.66	−0.30	+3.26	−2.93	−0.63
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	1.30	0.98	−0.32	0.00	−0.26	−0.07
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	4.83	4.50	−0.33	+2.54	−2.63	−0.23
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	2.47	2.03	−0.44	0.00	−0.42	−0.02
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	2.25	1.78	−0.47	0.00	−0.37	−0.10
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	8.27	7.69	−0.58	+2.05	−2.47	−0.16
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	2.55	1.96	−0.59	0.00	−0.43	−0.16
Air Power	National Security	5.22	4.59	−0.63	+1.06	−1.42	−0.27
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	3.05	2.39	−0.66	0.00	−0.53	−0.14
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	6.88	6.17	−0.71	+1.17	−1.81	−0.07
Population Health	Human Capital	6.03	5.30	−0.73	+1.62	−2.05	−0.30
Maritime Power	National Security	1.89	1.11	−0.78	0.00	−0.72	−0.07
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	5.82	4.84	−0.98	+1.46	−2.25	−0.19
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	7.02	6.02	−1.00	+0.50	−1.30	−0.18
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	4.34	3.33	−1.01	0.00	−0.90	−0.12
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	4.93	3.91	−1.02	0.00	−0.89	−0.13
Land Power	National Security	8.26	7.24	−1.02	+1.39	−2.07	−0.34
Space Operations	National Security	3.50	2.46	−1.04	0.00	−0.90	−0.14
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	5.93	4.83	−1.10	0.00	−1.04	−0.07
Foundational Education	Human Capital	7.03	5.91	−1.12	+0.86	−1.42	−0.56
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	6.82	5.69	−1.13	0.00	−1.11	−0.02
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	6.39	5.26	−1.13	0.00	−1.07	−0.06
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	8.01	6.84	−1.17	+1.10	−1.93	−0.33
Health System Capability	Human Capital	7.50	6.27	−1.23	+0.68	−1.43	−0.48
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	6.46	5.21	−1.25	0.00	−1.13	−0.12
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	4.00	2.70	−1.30	0.00	−1.09	−0.21
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	6.40	5.07	−1.33	0.00	−1.20	−0.14
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	6.60	5.25	−1.35	+2.05	−3.06	−0.34
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	8.00	6.64	−1.36	+1.05	−2.20	−0.21
Advanced Education	Human Capital	6.59	5.15	−1.44	0.00	−1.23	−0.21
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	5.99	4.55	−1.44	0.00	−1.11	−0.34
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	4.42	2.93	−1.49	0.00	−1.19	−0.30
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	7.74	6.20	−1.54	0.00	−1.28	−0.26
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	9.02	7.43	−1.59	+1.67	−2.93	−0.32
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	6.11	4.45	−1.66	0.00	−1.53	−0.12
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	4.95	3.26	−1.69	0.00	−1.59	−0.11
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	4.39	2.65	−1.74	0.00	−1.61	−0.13
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	4.93	3.10	−1.83	0.00	−1.50	−0.33
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	5.33	3.50	−1.83	0.00	−1.64	−0.19
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	5.82	3.95	−1.87	0.00	−1.74	−0.13
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	6.22	4.28	−1.94	0.00	−1.93	−0.01
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	4.82	2.88	−1.94	0.00	−1.66	−0.27
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	5.44	3.49	−1.95	0.00	−1.79	−0.16
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	5.65	3.67	−1.98	0.00	−1.73	−0.25
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	4.99	3.01	−1.98	0.00	−1.80	−0.18
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	6.04	4.03	−2.01	0.00	−1.77	−0.24
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	6.68	4.62	−2.06	0.00	−1.86	−0.20
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	6.80	4.70	−2.10	0.00	−1.87	−0.23
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	7.51	5.41	−2.10	0.00	−2.08	−0.03
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	6.70	4.56	−2.14	0.00	−2.03	−0.10
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	9.72	7.50	−2.22	+0.81	−2.31	−0.72
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	6.14	3.78	−2.36	0.00	−2.21	−0.15
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	7.57	5.00	−2.57	0.00	−2.44	−0.13
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	6.43	3.82	−2.61	0.00	−2.28	−0.33
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	7.36	4.75	−2.61	0.00	−2.24	−0.37
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	7.54	4.89	−2.65	0.00	−2.41	−0.24
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	8.29	5.63	−2.66	0.00	−2.23	−0.43
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	7.00	4.29	−2.71	0.00	−2.52	−0.18
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	8.27	5.52	−2.75	0.00	−2.29	−0.46
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	8.10	5.31	−2.79	+1.09	−3.63	−0.25
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	7.00	4.18	−2.82	0.00	−1.94	−0.89
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	6.94	4.12	−2.82	0.00	−2.48	−0.34
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	5.55	2.69	−2.86	0.00	−2.52	−0.34
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	7.01	3.76	−3.25	+1.49	−4.61	−0.13
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	7.38	3.95	−3.43	0.00	−3.19	−0.24
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	6.69	3.19	−3.50	0.00	−3.10	−0.40
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	7.39	3.45	−3.94	+0.48	−4.00	−0.43

Seed 3 of experiment cycle-003.e4-eth. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.