Round 2026
Round 30 of 30 in simulation 5 of Ethiopia, scripted, 30 years from 1996: 5 actions, and the index +0.036 to 4.32.
Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1
State in and state out
The simulation as it came into 2026 (the end of 2025) and as it left it.
- Capability index
- 4.32 (+0.036)
- In: 4.28
- Rank by index
- 135
- In: 135
- Domains at Tier 1
- 0
- In: 0
- Credits carried
- 60
- In: 42
| Domain | In | Out | Change | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 1.94 | 1.96 | +0.019 | 12 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 4.88 | 4.95 | +0.065 | 10 |
| National Security | 3.97 | 3.97 | 0.000 | 9 |
| Human Capital | 5.45 | 5.49 | +0.047 | 15 |
| Information & Influence | 4.44 | 4.45 | +0.013 | 14 |
| Governance & Integrity | 5.94 | 6.00 | +0.061 | 19 → 18 |
| Financial Strength | 4.04 | 4.10 | +0.063 | 30 |
| Production & Innovation | 4.09 | 4.12 | +0.029 | 20 |
| Trade & Investment | 3.78 | 3.80 | +0.026 | 18 |
Decision, shocks and propagation
What happened in 2026: the credits, the scripted method's decision and its actions, any shocks and upside events, the tier changes, and the groups that moved most, split into what was invested, lost to decay, struck by events and carried through the dependency graph.
Credits. Income 95, plus 42 carried in. Maintenance 68. Spent 9 on actions (partner 9). 60 carried over.
- PartnerFiscal Capacity & Public Finance2 credits for 0.15 levelsscripted_history
- PartnerEnergy Infrastructure2 credits for 0.13 levelsscripted_history
- PartnerCommunications & Digital Infrastructure2 credits for 0.15 levelsscripted_history
- PartnerDigital & AI Competence2 credits for 0.18 levelsscripted_history
- PartnerNational Resilience & Crisis Management2 credits for 0.10 levelsscripted_history
Earlier events still landing: +1.8 points this round.
Tiers. Governance & Integrity Tier 19 to 18.
| Moved most | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy Infrastructure | +0.19 | +0.13 | 0.00 | +0.06 | 0.00 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | +0.19 | +0.14 | 0.00 | +0.04 | 0.00 |
| Digital & AI Competence | +0.19 | +0.17 | 0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | +0.19 | +0.15 | 0.00 | +0.03 | 0.00 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | +0.17 | +0.14 | 0.00 | +0.03 | 0.00 |
| Internal Security & Order | +0.08 | +0.05 | 0.00 | +0.03 | 0.00 |