A good simulation (90th percentile) · cycle-003.e4-eth

Simulation 5

Ethiopia, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 5: a good simulation (90th percentile) of the experiment's 30. Capability index 5.96 at the 1996 position, 4.32 in 2026; 170 actions over 30 rounds and 7 shocks.

Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 5

The experiment · The other representative simulations: 3 (median simulation), 29 (a poor simulation (10th percentile))

Outcome

From the 1996 position to 2026.

Capability index: 4.32 (−1.64); From 5.96
Rank by index: 135; From 97
Domains at Tier 1: 0; From 0
Events: 7 shocks; 2 upside events

Trajectory by domain

The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.

ShockUpside event

Capability index by round

Pathway, round by round

Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.

Round	Decision	Events	Index
1997	Build Land Power 6 Build Force Generation & Mobilisation 6 Build Air Power 6 Build Intelligence & Assessment 6 Build Internal Security & Order 1		5.96 +0.003
1998	Build Land Power 6 Build Force Generation & Mobilisation 6 Build Air Power 6 Build Intelligence & Assessment 6 Build Internal Security & Order 1	Regional war spillover	5.66 −0.302
1999	Build Land Power 6 Build Force Generation & Mobilisation 6 Build Air Power 6 Build Intelligence & Assessment 6 Build Internal Security & Order 1		5.66 +0.004
2000	Build Land Power 6 Build Force Generation & Mobilisation 6 Build Air Power 6 Build Intelligence & Assessment 6 Build Internal Security & Order 2		5.67 +0.003
2001	Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 2 Build Transport Infrastructure 2 Build Foundational Education 2 Build Population Health 2 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 2		5.67 +0.003
2002	Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 2 Build Transport Infrastructure 2 Build Foundational Education 2 Build Population Health 2 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 2	Breadbasket failure	5.28 −0.389
2003	Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 2 Build Transport Infrastructure 2 Build Foundational Education 2 Build Population Health 2 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 2		5.28 −0.004
2004	Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 2 Build Transport Infrastructure 2 Build Foundational Education 2 Build Population Health 2 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 2		5.27 −0.005
2005	Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 2 Build Transport Infrastructure 2 Build Foundational Education 2 Build Population Health 2 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 2 Build Transport Infrastructure 2 Build Energy Infrastructure 2 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 2 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 2 Build Technical & Vocational Skills 2		5.27 −0.001
2006	Build Transport Infrastructure 2 Build Energy Infrastructure 2 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 2 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 2 Build Technical & Vocational Skills 2		5.27 −0.001
2007	Build Transport Infrastructure 2 Build Energy Infrastructure 2 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 2 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 2 Build Technical & Vocational Skills 2		5.27 0.000
2008	Build Transport Infrastructure 2 Build Energy Infrastructure 2 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 2 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 2 Build Technical & Vocational Skills 2	Breadbasket failure	5.05 −0.225
2009	Build Transport Infrastructure 2 Build Energy Infrastructure 2 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 2 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 2 Build Technical & Vocational Skills 2		5.05 +0.003
2010	Build Transport Infrastructure 2 Build Energy Infrastructure 2 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 2 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 2 Build Technical & Vocational Skills 2 Build Energy Infrastructure 5 Build Transport Infrastructure 5 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 5 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 5 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 5		5.05 +0.005
2011	Build Energy Infrastructure 5 Build Transport Infrastructure 5 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 5 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 5 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 5	Breadbasket failure	4.80 −0.257
2012	Build Energy Infrastructure 5 Build Transport Infrastructure 5 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 5 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 5 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 5		4.81 +0.009
2013	Build Energy Infrastructure 5 Build Transport Infrastructure 5 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 5 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 5 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 5		4.82 +0.009
2014	Build Energy Infrastructure 5 Build Transport Infrastructure 5 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 5 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 5 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 5		4.83 +0.012
2015	Build Energy Infrastructure 5 Build Transport Infrastructure 5 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 5 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 5 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 5 Partner Industrial & Sectoral Base 2 Partner Transport Infrastructure 2 Partner Communications & Digital Infrastructure 2 Partner Trade Facilitation & Logistics 2 Partner Export Capability & Sophistication 2	Breadbasket failure	4.55 −0.280
2016	Partner Industrial & Sectoral Base 2 Partner Transport Infrastructure 2 Partner Communications & Digital Infrastructure 2 Partner Trade Facilitation & Logistics 2 Partner Export Capability & Sophistication 2		4.56 +0.017
2017	Partner Industrial & Sectoral Base 2 Partner Transport Infrastructure 2 Partner Communications & Digital Infrastructure 2 Partner Trade Facilitation & Logistics 2 Partner Export Capability & Sophistication 2		4.58 +0.014
2018	Partner Industrial & Sectoral Base 2 Partner Transport Infrastructure 2 Partner Communications & Digital Infrastructure 2 Partner Trade Facilitation & Logistics 2 Partner Export Capability & Sophistication 2		4.59 +0.011
2019	Partner Industrial & Sectoral Base 2 Partner Transport Infrastructure 2 Partner Communications & Digital Infrastructure 2 Partner Trade Facilitation & Logistics 2 Partner Export Capability & Sophistication 2		4.60 +0.009
2020	Partner Industrial & Sectoral Base 2 Partner Transport Infrastructure 2 Partner Communications & Digital Infrastructure 2 Partner Trade Facilitation & Logistics 2 Partner Export Capability & Sophistication 2 Build National Resilience & Crisis Management 5 Build Health System Capability 5 Build Population Health 5 Build Land Power 5 Build Internal Security & Order 5	Severe pandemicRegional war spillover	4.17 −0.430
2021	Build National Resilience & Crisis Management 5 Build Health System Capability 5 Build Population Health 5 Build Land Power 5 Build Internal Security & Order 5		4.17 +0.006
2022	Build National Resilience & Crisis Management 4 Build Health System Capability 4 Build Population Health 4 Build Land Power 4 Build Internal Security & Order 4	Clean power threshold	4.19 +0.015
2023	Partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 2 Partner Energy Infrastructure 2 Partner Communications & Digital Infrastructure 2 Partner Digital & AI Competence 2 Partner National Resilience & Crisis Management 2	Debt service reset	4.22 +0.027
2024	Partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 2 Partner Energy Infrastructure 2 Partner Communications & Digital Infrastructure 2 Partner Digital & AI Competence 2 Partner National Resilience & Crisis Management 2		4.25 +0.031
2025	Partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 2 Partner Energy Infrastructure 2 Partner Communications & Digital Infrastructure 2 Partner Digital & AI Competence 2 Partner National Resilience & Crisis Management 2		4.28 +0.031
2026	Partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 2 Partner Energy Infrastructure 2 Partner Communications & Digital Infrastructure 2 Partner Digital & AI Competence 2 Partner National Resilience & Crisis Management 2		4.32 +0.036

Credits

What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.

Tiers by round

Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.

Domain	1996					2001					2006					2011					2016					2021					2026
Critical Technology	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12
Strategic Infrastructure	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	9	9	9	11	11	10	10	10	10	10
National Security	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	9	9	9	9	9	9	9
Human Capital	13	13	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	15	15	15	14	15	15	15	15	15	16	16	16	16	16	15	15
Information & Influence	11	11	11	11	11	11	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14
Governance & Integrity	16	16	16	16	16	16	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	18
Financial Strength	22	22	23	23	23	23	24	24	24	24	24	24	25	25	25	25	27	27	27	29	29	29	29	29	31	31	31	30	30	30	30
Production & Innovation	18	18	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	19	20	20	20	20	20	20	20
Trade & Investment	15	15	16	16	16	16	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	18	18	18	19	18	19	18	17	17	17	18	18	18	18	18	18	18

Probes

What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds, this one among them: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.

Probe	Index	Score sum
Hold instead of the method	−0.441	−34.1
No shocks	+2.309	+163.0
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0
Without the 1st largest decision	+0.002	+0.1
Without the 2nd largest decision	+0.002	+0.1
Without the 3rd largest decision	+0.002	+0.1
Without the 4th largest decision	+0.001	+0.0
Without the 5th largest decision	+0.002	+0.1
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.391	+27.5
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.369	+26.6
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.282	+20.4

Every group over the simulation

Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	1996	2026	Change	Invested	Events	Graph
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	5.89	6.37	+0.48	+1.69	−1.18	−0.02
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	6.27	6.72	+0.45	+2.74	−2.08	−0.21
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	−0.04
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	1.06	0.87	−0.19	0.00	−0.13	−0.05
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	6.96	6.77	−0.19	+3.25	−2.95	−0.49
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	1.32	1.07	−0.25	0.00	−0.18	−0.07
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	1.55	1.27	−0.28	0.00	−0.23	−0.04
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	4.83	4.52	−0.31	+2.54	−2.64	−0.20
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	1.30	0.98	−0.32	0.00	−0.26	−0.06
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	2.25	1.81	−0.44	0.00	−0.38	−0.07
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	2.47	2.02	−0.45	0.00	−0.42	−0.03
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	2.55	1.99	−0.56	0.00	−0.43	−0.13
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	8.27	7.66	−0.61	+2.05	−2.47	−0.19
Air Power	National Security	5.22	4.61	−0.61	+1.06	−1.42	−0.25
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	3.05	2.37	−0.68	0.00	−0.53	−0.15
Population Health	Human Capital	6.03	5.34	−0.69	+1.62	−2.06	−0.24
Maritime Power	National Security	1.89	1.11	−0.78	0.00	−0.72	−0.07
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	6.88	6.10	−0.78	+1.17	−1.80	−0.15
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	5.82	4.87	−0.95	+1.46	−2.25	−0.15
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	7.02	6.04	−0.98	+0.50	−1.31	−0.16
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	4.93	3.89	−1.04	0.00	−0.89	−0.15
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	4.34	3.29	−1.05	0.00	−0.89	−0.16
Space Operations	National Security	3.50	2.43	−1.07	0.00	−0.90	−0.18
Foundational Education	Human Capital	7.03	5.96	−1.07	+0.86	−1.42	−0.50
Land Power	National Security	8.26	7.17	−1.09	+1.39	−2.06	−0.42
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	5.93	4.81	−1.12	0.00	−1.04	−0.09
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	6.82	5.69	−1.13	0.00	−1.11	−0.02
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	6.39	5.26	−1.13	0.00	−1.07	−0.07
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	8.01	6.80	−1.21	+1.10	−1.92	−0.39
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	6.46	5.24	−1.22	0.00	−1.13	−0.08
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	6.40	5.13	−1.27	0.00	−1.20	−0.06
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	8.00	6.66	−1.34	+1.04	−2.20	−0.17
Advanced Education	Human Capital	6.59	5.22	−1.37	0.00	−1.24	−0.14
Health System Capability	Human Capital	7.50	6.12	−1.38	+0.68	−1.42	−0.64
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	6.60	5.20	−1.40	+2.05	−3.05	−0.41
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	4.00	2.56	−1.44	0.00	−1.06	−0.37
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	5.99	4.54	−1.45	0.00	−1.11	−0.34
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	4.42	2.96	−1.46	0.00	−1.20	−0.27
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	7.74	6.15	−1.59	0.00	−1.28	−0.30
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	9.02	7.39	−1.63	+1.67	−2.92	−0.38
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	4.95	3.27	−1.68	0.00	−1.60	−0.09
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	4.39	2.67	−1.72	0.00	−1.62	−0.11
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	6.11	4.39	−1.72	0.00	−1.53	−0.19
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	4.93	3.12	−1.81	0.00	−1.50	−0.31
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	4.82	3.00	−1.82	0.00	−1.69	−0.13
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	5.33	3.50	−1.83	0.00	−1.64	−0.19
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	5.82	3.94	−1.88	0.00	−1.74	−0.13
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	6.04	4.11	−1.93	0.00	−1.78	−0.15
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	6.22	4.24	−1.98	0.00	−1.92	−0.05
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	5.65	3.67	−1.98	0.00	−1.73	−0.25
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	5.44	3.46	−1.98	0.00	−1.79	−0.20
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	4.99	3.00	−1.99	0.00	−1.80	−0.20
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	6.80	4.79	−2.01	0.00	−1.88	−0.13
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	6.68	4.65	−2.03	0.00	−1.87	−0.16
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	7.51	5.41	−2.10	0.00	−2.08	−0.02
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	6.70	4.60	−2.10	0.00	−2.04	−0.06
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	9.72	7.53	−2.19	+0.81	−2.31	−0.69
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	6.14	3.69	−2.45	0.00	−2.19	−0.27
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	7.54	5.03	−2.51	0.00	−2.44	−0.07
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	7.57	4.98	−2.59	0.00	−2.44	−0.15
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	6.43	3.79	−2.64	0.00	−2.27	−0.37
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	8.29	5.64	−2.65	0.00	−2.24	−0.41
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	7.36	4.69	−2.67	0.00	−2.23	−0.44
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	7.00	4.31	−2.69	0.00	−1.96	−0.74
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	7.00	4.31	−2.69	0.00	−2.53	−0.16
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	8.27	5.56	−2.71	0.00	−2.29	−0.41
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	6.94	4.15	−2.79	0.00	−2.49	−0.30
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	5.55	2.72	−2.83	0.00	−2.53	−0.30
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	8.10	5.27	−2.83	+1.09	−3.62	−0.30
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	7.01	3.78	−3.23	+1.49	−4.62	−0.10
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	6.69	3.30	−3.39	0.00	−3.14	−0.24
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	7.38	3.94	−3.44	0.00	−3.19	−0.25
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	7.39	3.43	−3.96	+0.48	−3.99	−0.45

Seed 5 of experiment cycle-003.e4-eth. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.