E4 · cycle-003.e4-geo

Georgia, scripted, 30 years from 1996

30 simulations of 30 rounds from the 1996 position. Georgia decides by the scripted method; scripted events: Global funding seizure in year 2, Market access opening in year 4, Legitimacy rupture in year 7, Trade bloc rupture in year 10, Regional war spillover in year 12, Global funding seizure in year 12, Market access opening in year 18, Severe pandemic in year 24, Legitimacy rupture in year 25, Breadbasket failure in year 26, Market access opening in year 27.

Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seeds 1–30 · elasticity sampled within each bracket

The same configuration in other cycles: cycle 2.

Every simulation · Compare with another experiment · More experiments like this

Not a forecast

Simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values, to compare methods and test the model. Other nations stay at their 2026 ratings throughout.

Outcome across simulations

The median at 2026, with the 10th to the 90th percentile of the 30 simulations under it.

Capability index: 4.81 (−1.64); From 6.45; 4.80 to 4.82
Rank by index: 122; From 90; 122 to 122
Domains at Tier 1: 0; From 0; 0 to 0
Tier rank: 112; From 97; 112 to 112

Capability index by round

Rank by index, by round

Every objective at the position and at the horizon
Objective	1996	10th percentile	Median	90th percentile	Better
Capability indexprimary	6.45	4.80	4.81	4.82	higher
Rank by index	90	122	122	122	lower
Tier rank	97	112	112	112	lower
Domains at Tier 1	0	0	0	0	higher
Score sum	461.5	347.2	347.7	348.3	higher
Goal-weighted score	461.5	347.2	347.7	348.3	higher
Resilient score	461.5	347.7 (mean score sum over the simulations)			higher

The capability index is the mean of the three dimensions, each the mean of its domains, each the mean of its groups. Tiers are Pareto layers within each domain; the tier rank orders nations by domains held at Tier 1, then Tier 2, and so on. The goal-weighted score is the score sum unless the experiment sets a goal. The primary objective is the one the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it.

Credits

What each round’s credits went on in the median simulation. Across all simulations, build took 60 per cent, buy took 0 per cent, partner took 40 per cent of the 444 credits a simulation spent on actions.

Against history

Started from a reconstructed 1996 position and played along the pathway and shocks Georgia actually had, then scored against the 2026 ratings. The position is an estimate, so part of any error is the reconstruction's. The calibration summary across all fifty nations is on the cycle's page under Loop.

Index 1996: 6.45; reconstructed
Observed 2026: 7.54; the Index's rating
Simulated 2026: 4.81; 4.77 to 4.85
Skill against persistence: −0.86; group error 2.63 against 1.41 if nothing changed

Domain	1996	Observed	Simulated	Bias	Direction
Critical Technology	3.00	2.18	2.21 2.2–2.2	+0.03	right
Strategic Infrastructure	7.46	7.87	5.96 5.9–6.0	−1.91	wrong
National Security	4.58	4.91	3.08 3.0–3.1	−1.83	wrong
Human Capital	8.32	9.39	6.89 6.8–6.9	−2.50	wrong
Information & Influence	6.70	7.25	4.93 4.9–5.0	−2.31	wrong
Governance & Integrity	7.32	10.79	6.43 6.4–6.5	−4.35	wrong
Financial Strength	7.24	9.06	4.46 4.4–4.5	−4.60	wrong
Production & Innovation	6.61	7.93	4.30 4.3–4.3	−3.63	wrong
Trade & Investment	6.81	8.54	5.05 5.0–5.1	−3.48	wrong

The history it was played under: shocks and events

1998 · S02 × 0.5 The Russian default and rouble crisis transmitted through trade, remittances and banking confidence, causing a sharp but brief contraction.
2000 · S12 × 0.3 WTO accession opened goods markets and locked in basic trade rules, but with limited immediate investment redirection.
2003 · S05 × 0.4 Disputed parliamentary elections and the Rose Revolution forced President Shevardnadze's resignation, briefly suspending normal government before reformers took power.
2006 · S01 × 0.5 Russia banned Georgian wine, mineral water and key agricultural imports and severed transport links, a targeted trade rupture against Georgian exports.
2008 · S03 × 1.2 Russia invaded Georgia in August over South Ossetia and Abkhazia, occupying territory and devastating military and civilian infrastructure.
2008 · S02 × 0.6 The global financial crisis hit Georgian banks, credit, FDI and remittances soon after the war, compounding economic damage.
2014 · S12 × 0.7 Signature and provisional application of the EU Association Agreement and DCFTA deepened market access and began substantial regulatory alignment.
2020 · S10 × 0.9 The COVID-19 pandemic overwhelmed health capacity, collapsed tourism and caused a sharp 2020 recession.
2021 · S05 × 0.4 Disputed 2020 parliamentary elections triggered opposition boycotts, street protests and a prolonged political crisis over legitimacy.
2022 · S06 × 0.4 Russia's full invasion of Ukraine disrupted Black Sea grain trade and raised wheat and food prices, with knock-on effects for Georgian food security.
2023 · S12 × 0.5 EU candidate status in December 2023 opened a prospective accession path, modestly redirecting investment and reform expectations.

The pathway: what it prioritised, period by period

1997–2003 · build · 2% each Post-Soviet stabilisation focused on restoring energy supply, rebuilding roads and ports, reviving food production, anchoring the new lari and strengthening basic state administration. (Energy Infrastructure, Transport Infrastructure, Agriculture & Food Infrastructure, Monetary & Currency Capability, Government Effectiveness & Public Administration)
2004–2007 · build · 5% each The Rose Revolution government made police reform, anti-corruption, tax collection and public administration its flagship modernisation drive while investing heavily in roads and energy transit. (Internal Security & Order, Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption, Government Effectiveness & Public Administration, Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance, Transport Infrastructure)
2008–2012 · partner · 2% each After the 2008 war Georgia rebuilt the armed forces with Western training and assistance, deepened NATO and EU security cooperation, and sought foreign investment to restore infrastructure and economic growth. (Force Generation & Mobilisation, Alliances & Security Cooperation, Transport Infrastructure, Energy Infrastructure, Investment Attraction & Projection)
2014–2020 · partner · 2% each Signature and implementation of the EU Association Agreement and DCFTA required aligning trade rules, food safety and financial regulation while expanding services and digital trade. (Trade Policy & Market Access, Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls, Agriculture & Food Infrastructure, Financial Regulation & Integrity, Digital & Services Trade)
2020–2021 · build · 5% each The COVID-19 pandemic forced emergency spending on hospitals, testing and crisis coordination while fiscal policy shifted to protect households and firms. (Health System Capability, National Resilience & Crisis Management, Government Effectiveness & Public Administration, Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance)
2022–2026 · partner · 2% each After EU candidate status and the shock of Russia's full invasion of Ukraine, Georgia prioritised energy diversification, Black Sea connectivity, EU market access, tourism and digital services, and export upgrading. (Energy Infrastructure, Transport Infrastructure, Trade Policy & Market Access, Digital & Services Trade, Export Capability & Sophistication)

Reconstruction notes (deepseek-v4-pro): The principal uncertainties are the exact 1996 scores for Soviet-era infrastructure and human capital, since official statistics are weak and the conflicts of the early 1990s disrupted many systems. National security capabilities are inferred from fragmentary data and may be over- or understated. Post-2012 governance backsliding and the depth of recent EU-related reforms are contested, so later policy priorities and event magnitudes carry higher uncertainty.

Report

Written from the simulation record by the loop's narrator. Every figure names the query it came from, in square brackets.

Batch cycle-003. Model 0.2.0, graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.1. 30 simulations, seeds 1 to 30; probes on 10. Every figure is a distribution over simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values; it shows what the model implies under these settings, not what will happen. Other nations are frozen at their 2026 ratings. No reconstructed historical data is used in this experiment.

Headline

Georgia played 30 rounds from 1996 under the scripted method, with scripted events, 30 times. Its capability index moved from 6.45 to a median of 4.81 (−1.64), with 90 per cent of simulations between 4.80 and 4.82 [experiment_objectives].

Starting position

In 1996 the nation ranks 90 on the index against the frozen field, holds 0 of nine domains at Tier 1 and has a tier rank of 97. Its base income is 138 credits a year, calibrated so that its 2026 position is affordable with headroom for investment.

What was decided

A simulation spent a median of 443 credits on moves. The five groups that took most were Government Effectiveness & Public Administration (build, 55 credits, 12.5 per cent); Transport Infrastructure (build, 45 credits, 10.1 per cent); Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance (build, 36 credits, 8.2 per cent); Internal Security & Order (build, 26 credits, 5.8 per cent); Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption (build, 26 credits, 5.8 per cent) [experiment_decisions_by_group]. By mode: build 60 per cent, partner 40 per cent [experiment_decisions_by_group]. Concentration of spending (HHI) had a median of 0.078, and the most repeated action appeared in 43 per cent of rounds.

The leading domain by period: rounds 1 to 5, Strategic Infrastructure; rounds 6 to 10, Governance & Integrity; rounds 11 to 15, Strategic Infrastructure; rounds 16 to 20, Trade & Investment; rounds 21 to 25, Governance & Integrity; rounds 26 to 30, Trade & Investment [experiment_spend_by_period].

What the world did

A median simulation saw 8 shocks and 3 upside events. The most damaging per firing were S03 (30 firings in 30 simulations, −53.3 points each); S10 (30 firings in 30 simulations, −28.6 points each); S01 (30 firings in 30 simulations, −12.4 points each) [experiment_shocks]. Upside events fired 90 times across all simulations [experiment_shocks].

The groups that lost most to shocks, per simulation: Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance −4.75; Trade Facilitation & Logistics −4.47; Monetary & Currency Capability −3.88; Government Effectiveness & Public Administration −3.47 [experiment_shock_damage_by_group].

The edges that carried most change through the graph, per simulation: Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance to Social Infrastructure (−0.63 points); Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance to Force Generation & Mobilisation (−0.49 points); Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance to Transport Infrastructure (−0.40 points) [experiment_propagation_by_edge].

Where it ended

At 2026 the median rank is 122 (5th to 95th percentile 122 to 122), the median count of Tier 1 domains 0 (0 to 0) and the median tier rank 112; the resilient score, the mean score sum over simulations, is 348 [experiment_objectives].

Why

Without shocks the index ends +2.563 higher on average, so the shocks cost about 2.563 index points [experiment_probe_attribution].

Holding instead of following this method changes the index by −0.503: that is the method's worth against doing nothing [experiment_probe_attribution].

Removing any single one of the five largest actions changes the index by between −0.015 and −0.004, for example 2004 build Internal Security & Order (7 credits) [experiment_probe_attribution]. The largest actions by credits come late, when income is highest, and are rarely the most valuable.

Removing the largest shock of a simulation raises the index by +0.859 on average [experiment_probe_attribution].

The replay probe reproduces the simulations exactly (index change 0.000000), so the attributions are clean [experiment_probe_attribution].

Surprises

The simulation furthest from the median (seed 15) ends −0.01 from it, with 8 shocks and 3 upside events [experiment_outlier_simulations].

Comparison

This is the baseline (hold) experiment, or there is none for this nation in the batch.

Against history: from a reconstructed index of 6.45 the model ends at 4.81, where the 2026 ratings put it at 7.55. Group scores miss by 2.63 points on average, against 1.41 for assuming nothing changed (skill −0.86); the change in each domain has the right sign in 11 per cent of domains. Furthest below history: financial strength (−4.60); furthest above: critical technology (+0.03) [experiment_against_history]. The starting position is reconstructed, so part of the error is the reconstruction's.

What each decision and shock was worth

Counterfactual probes on the first 10 seeds: the same simulations with one thing changed, paired seed by seed. A removed decision or shock is taken out and the other decisions replayed unchanged, so the difference is that item's worth.

Probe	Index	Score sum	For example
Hold instead of the method	−0.503	−35.0
No shocks	+2.563	+178.7
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0
Without the 1st largest decision	−0.005	−0.3	2004 build Internal Security & Order (7 credits)
Without the 2nd largest decision	−0.007	−0.5	2004 build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption (7 credits)
Without the 3rd largest decision	−0.006	−0.5	2004 build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration (7 credits)
Without the 4th largest decision	−0.015	−1.0	2004 build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance (7 credits)
Without the 5th largest decision	−0.004	−0.3	2004 build Transport Infrastructure (7 credits)
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.859	+61.8	2008 S03 (-53.3 points)
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.457	+31.8	2020 S10 (-28.6 points)
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.227	+15.2	2008 S02 (-12.6 points)

Simulations

Three simulations told round by round, each on its own page: the one nearest the median index at the horizon, and those nearest the 10th and the 90th percentile. Every one of the 30 is listed with its outcome on the simulations page.

All 30 simulations

Events

How often each shock and upside event began across the simulations. Shocks come from the ten downside scenarios and upside events from the ten upside ones, at their yearly likelihood.

Event	Kind	Simulations	Mean round	Points
Trade bloc rupture S01	Shock	100 per cent	10.0	−12.4
Global funding seizure S02	Shock	100 per cent	7.0	−11.8
Regional war spillover S03	Shock	100 per cent	12.0	−53.3
Legitimacy rupture S05	Shock	100 per cent	16.0	−10.1
Breadbasket failure S06	Shock	100 per cent	26.0	−5.5
Severe pandemic S10	Shock	100 per cent	24.0	−28.6
Market access opening S12	Upside	100 per cent	16.3	+4.8

Groups across simulations

Every capability group: its position, and its median and spread at the horizon across the simulations, with what the method spent on it.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	1996	2026	Change	Levels invested	Credits
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	7.34	8.12 8.05 to 8.16	+0.78	3.88	25
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	5.39	5.54 5.50 to 5.57	+0.15	2.17	40
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	0.00	0.00 0.00 to 0.00	0.00	0.00	0
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	7.40	7.30 7.25 to 7.35	−0.10	1.47	26
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	8.23	8.08 7.97 to 8.20	−0.15	2.97	65
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	6.82	6.67 6.67 to 6.68	−0.15	0.99	15
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	7.17	6.86 6.82 to 6.90	−0.31	1.46	26
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	1.39	1.06 1.06 to 1.07	−0.33	0.00	0
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	1.55	1.21 1.20 to 1.23	−0.34	0.00	0
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	8.21	7.85 7.81 to 7.89	−0.36	2.72	25
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	9.08	8.67 8.63 to 8.71	−0.41	2.75	55
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	2.18	1.68 1.67 to 1.69	−0.50	0.00	0
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	2.14	1.52 1.51 to 1.53	−0.62	0.00	0
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	2.72	2.07 2.05 to 2.09	−0.65	0.00	0
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	2.92	2.26 2.25 to 2.27	−0.66	0.00	0
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	8.49	7.80 7.73 to 7.86	−0.69	1.66	34
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	7.92	7.07 7.01 to 7.12	−0.85	1.70	11
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	3.39	2.52 2.51 to 2.56	−0.87	0.00	0
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	7.86	6.93 6.91 to 6.96	−0.93	0.00	0
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	6.99	5.98 5.96 to 6.01	−1.01	0.00	0
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	3.85	2.82 2.79 to 2.83	−1.03	0.00	0
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	5.22	4.15 4.11 to 4.21	−1.07	1.18	10
Space Operations	National Security	3.50	2.41 2.39 to 2.44	−1.09	0.00	0
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	7.33	6.12 6.09 to 6.16	−1.21	0.00	0
Air Power	National Security	4.11	2.87 2.85 to 2.89	−1.24	0.00	0
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	4.97	3.71 3.63 to 3.77	−1.26	0.00	0
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	4.12	2.86 2.81 to 2.90	−1.26	0.00	0
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	8.08	6.78 6.74 to 6.83	−1.30	0.00	0
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	5.86	4.56 4.53 to 4.59	−1.30	1.40	11
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	5.18	3.85 3.81 to 3.87	−1.33	0.00	0
Maritime Power	National Security	3.11	1.78 1.76 to 1.78	−1.33	0.00	0
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	6.36	4.96 4.93 to 4.99	−1.40	0.00	0
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	6.67	5.22 5.19 to 5.25	−1.45	0.00	0
Advanced Education	Human Capital	9.40	7.92 7.88 to 7.97	−1.48	0.00	0
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	6.94	5.44 5.43 to 5.47	−1.50	0.00	0
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	4.66	3.08 3.06 to 3.10	−1.58	0.00	0
Health System Capability	Human Capital	8.47	6.89 6.82 to 6.97	−1.58	0.52	11
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	5.75	4.10 4.07 to 4.14	−1.65	0.00	0
Population Health	Human Capital	7.43	5.76 5.70 to 5.79	−1.67	0.00	0
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	6.19	4.50 4.47 to 4.53	−1.69	0.00	0
Land Power	National Security	5.59	3.87 3.81 to 3.91	−1.72	0.00	0
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	9.81	8.09 8.01 to 8.16	−1.72	0.00	0
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	4.15	2.41 2.37 to 2.42	−1.74	0.00	0
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	8.15	6.35 6.31 to 6.38	−1.80	0.64	11
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	5.45	3.62 3.59 to 3.66	−1.83	0.00	0
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	7.79	5.89 5.84 to 5.94	−1.90	0.00	0
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	6.10	4.15 4.11 to 4.20	−1.95	0.00	0
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	8.97	7.02 6.99 to 7.04	−1.95	0.00	0
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	7.90	5.87 5.77 to 5.96	−2.03	0.00	0
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	6.21	4.18 4.14 to 4.22	−2.03	0.00	0
Foundational Education	Human Capital	9.53	7.49 7.40 to 7.55	−2.04	0.00	0
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	7.62	5.57 5.54 to 5.60	−2.05	0.00	0
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	6.33	4.26 4.19 to 4.33	−2.07	0.00	0
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	5.66	3.54 3.50 to 3.57	−2.12	0.00	0
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	8.01	5.86 5.85 to 5.86	−2.15	1.22	15
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	8.43	6.27 6.26 to 6.27	−2.16	0.00	0
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	7.76	5.55 5.41 to 5.65	−2.21	0.66	11
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	6.91	4.69 4.66 to 4.73	−2.22	0.00	0
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	6.96	4.73 4.69 to 4.78	−2.23	0.00	0
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	5.63	3.32 3.28 to 3.35	−2.31	0.00	0
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	6.02	3.68 3.65 to 3.70	−2.34	0.00	0
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	6.33	3.88 3.83 to 3.92	−2.45	0.00	0
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	7.21	4.74 4.71 to 4.80	−2.47	0.00	0
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	8.94	6.41 6.28 to 6.50	−2.53	0.00	0
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	6.34	3.58 3.54 to 3.63	−2.76	0.00	0
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	7.01	4.16 4.12 to 4.23	−2.85	0.00	0
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	8.52	5.66 5.60 to 5.85	−2.86	0.00	0
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	7.16	4.21 4.18 to 4.22	−2.95	0.00	0
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	7.50	4.53 4.45 to 4.60	−2.97	1.07	19
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	7.71	4.54 4.48 to 4.59	−3.17	0.00	0
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	7.39	4.13 4.06 to 4.21	−3.26	1.78	36
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	6.27	2.88 2.81 to 2.94	−3.39	0.00	0
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	7.76	3.67 3.64 to 3.69	−4.09	0.00	0

Checks

The automated checks run on this experiment before anything was written about it. A warning is a candidate finding for the improvement loop.

passcredits_conservedlargest gap between credits in and credits accounted for: 8.5e-14
passscores_in_boundsscores range 0.000 to 10.045
passno_nans0 missing values in the trajectory and objectives
passprobe_replay_reproducesthe recorded moves played back reproduce the simulation to within 0.0e+00 points (10 simulations)
passledger_balancesthe edge ledger sums to the propagated change to within 9.4e-07 points
passmove_without_shocklargest one-year move in a group with no shock landing: 0.37 points; 0% of simulations have one above 3
passtier_jumplargest gain in one domain within five years: 2 tiers (0 simulations above 2); tiers are reported, not an objective
passall_tier1_from_outside_top10starting rank 90; 0 simulations reach Tier 1 in all nine domains
passsaturation_high0% of simulations end with a group at 20 that did not start there (median 0 groups)
passsaturation_low0% of simulations end with a group at 0 that did not start there (median 0 groups)
passspend_concentrationmedian concentration of spending across groups (HHI) 0.078; most funded group hard.strategic_infrastructure.transport_infrastructure
passsame_actionthe most repeated move (group and mode) appears in a median 43% of rounds
passregression_index_p50index_p50 moved 90.5% since cycle-002 (2.53 to 4.81); versions changed (0.1.0 to 0.1.1, graph 0.2.0 to 0.2.0)
passregression_score_sum_p50score_sum_p50 moved 86.7% since cycle-002 (186.29 to 347.71); versions changed (0.1.0 to 0.1.1, graph 0.2.0 to 0.2.0)

Settings and versions

Experiment cycle-003.e4-geo. Every simulation records the model, graph and parameter versions, the scenario, the method and its seed, so it can be reproduced exactly.

Nation: Georgia (GEO)
Position: A reconstructed 1996 position, aligned to the Index's scale
Method: Scripted. Actions fixed in advance by the experiment: for a backcast, the nation's historical pathway.
Scenario: Scripted events: Global funding seizure in year 2, Market access opening in year 4, Legitimacy rupture in year 7, Trade bloc rupture in year 10, Regional war spillover in year 12, Global funding seizure in year 12, Market access opening in year 18, Severe pandemic in year 24, Legitimacy rupture in year 25, Breadbasket failure in year 26, Market access opening in year 27
Objective: Capability index, the primary objective the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it
Horizon: 30 rounds, 1996 to 2026
Simulations: 30 seeds, 1 to 30. Every method in the batch faces the same draws for the same seed.
Graph elasticities: Drawn for each simulation, uniformly within each edge’s bracket
Income: Base credits 137.8 a round, moving with the economic groups
Versions: Model 0.2.0, Capability Dependency Graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.1
Batch: Backcast 1996-2026 (cycle-003), cycle 3 of the improvement loop
Runtime: 6.3 seconds in all; 1592 microseconds a round

Not a forecast: Every figure is a distribution over the simulations of a structural model, reported to compare methods and test the model. None is a prediction of what a nation will do or become.
Structural parameters: Costs, decay, vulnerability and credits are structural seed values with low or medium confidence, set by domain with single-group exceptions. Five groups have no defensible value in a single-nation model and are flagged in the parameter tables.
Other nations are frozen: One nation is simulated at a time. Every other nation stays at its 2026 rating, so rank and tiers are measured against a still field; where the simulated nation rises past others their own tiers are not re-sorted.
Starting depth and mode are defaults: The position is the National Capability Index ratings. How institutionalised each capability is, and how much was built, bought or partnered, have no data behind them yet and start from structural defaults.
Credits are calibrated, not measured: Each nation’s income is set so that its position is affordable with headroom that rises with its fiscal capacity. It is not yet fiscal capacity as a share of GDP.