Simulation 21
Georgia, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 21: median simulation of the experiment's 30. Capability index 6.45 at the 1996 position, 4.81 in 2026; 148 actions over 30 rounds and 8 shocks.
Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 21
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 28 (a poor simulation (10th percentile)), 26 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 1996 position to 2026.
- Capability index
- 4.81 (−1.64)
- From 6.45
- Rank by index
- 122
- From 90
- Domains at Tier 1
- 0
- From 0
- Events
- 8 shocks
- 3 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1997 |
| 6.45 +0.002 | |
| 1998 |
| Global funding seizure | 6.29 −0.165 |
| 1999 |
| 6.29 +0.003 | |
| 2000 |
| Market access opening | 6.31 +0.019 |
| 2001 |
| 6.33 +0.021 | |
| 2002 |
| 6.35 +0.022 | |
| 2003 |
| Legitimacy rupture | 6.20 −0.157 |
| 2004 |
| 6.21 +0.010 | |
| 2005 |
| 6.22 +0.012 | |
| 2006 |
| Trade bloc rupture | 6.17 −0.045 |
| 2007 |
| 6.13 −0.043 | |
| 2008 |
| Regional war spilloverGlobal funding seizure | 5.15 −0.978 |
| 2009 |
| 5.16 +0.007 | |
| 2010 |
| 5.15 −0.005 | |
| 2011 |
| 5.15 −0.004 | |
| 2012 |
| 5.14 −0.006 | |
| 2013 | No actions | 5.13 −0.012 | |
| 2014 |
| Market access opening | 5.17 +0.034 |
| 2015 |
| 5.21 +0.041 | |
| 2016 |
| 5.25 +0.043 | |
| 2017 |
| 5.26 +0.014 | |
| 2018 |
| 5.28 +0.014 | |
| 2019 |
| 5.29 +0.018 | |
| 2020 |
| Severe pandemic | 4.90 −0.393 |
| 2021 |
| Legitimacy rupture | 4.78 −0.119 |
| 2022 |
| Breadbasket failure | 4.71 −0.071 |
| 2023 |
| Market access opening | 4.74 +0.031 |
| 2024 |
| 4.77 +0.030 | |
| 2025 |
| 4.80 +0.029 | |
| 2026 |
| 4.81 +0.010 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 1996 | 2001 | 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | 2021 | 2026 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| National Security | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Human Capital | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 |
| Information & Influence | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 |
| Governance & Integrity | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 16 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 16 | 16 | 17 | 17 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 17 | 17 | 17 |
| Financial Strength | 21 | 21 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 23 | 23 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 |
| Production & Innovation | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 18 | 18 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 |
| Trade & Investment | 13 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 15 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −0.503 | −35.0 | 0.00 |
| No shocks | +2.563 | +178.7 | 0.00 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.005 | −0.3 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.007 | −0.5 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.006 | −0.5 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.015 | −1.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.004 | −0.3 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.859 | +61.8 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.457 | +31.8 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.227 | +15.2 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 1996 | 2026 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 7.34 | 8.16 | +0.82 | +3.86 | 0.00 | −2.84 | −0.19 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 5.39 | 5.56 | +0.17 | +2.16 | 0.00 | −1.81 | −0.18 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.04 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 7.40 | 7.26 | −0.14 | +1.47 | 0.00 | −1.34 | −0.26 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 6.82 | 6.67 | −0.15 | +0.99 | 0.00 | −1.13 | −0.01 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 7.17 | 6.90 | −0.27 | +1.46 | 0.00 | −1.60 | −0.13 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 8.23 | 7.96 | −0.27 | +2.98 | 0.00 | −2.69 | −0.54 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 1.39 | 1.06 | −0.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.29 | −0.04 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 1.55 | 1.21 | −0.34 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.29 | −0.06 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 8.21 | 7.85 | −0.36 | +2.71 | 0.00 | −2.84 | −0.23 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 9.08 | 8.61 | −0.47 | +2.75 | 0.00 | −2.99 | −0.23 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 2.18 | 1.68 | −0.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.44 | −0.06 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 2.14 | 1.53 | −0.61 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.58 | −0.03 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 2.72 | 2.07 | −0.65 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.57 | −0.09 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 2.92 | 2.26 | −0.66 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.63 | −0.03 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 8.49 | 7.81 | −0.68 | +1.66 | 0.00 | −2.03 | −0.31 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 3.39 | 2.53 | −0.86 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.73 | −0.12 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 7.92 | 7.06 | −0.86 | +1.70 | 0.00 | −2.24 | −0.32 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 7.86 | 6.90 | −0.96 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.80 | −0.16 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 3.85 | 2.82 | −1.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.95 | −0.08 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 6.99 | 5.96 | −1.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.90 | −0.14 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 5.22 | 4.16 | −1.06 | +1.17 | 0.00 | −1.89 | −0.34 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 3.50 | 2.41 | −1.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.94 | −0.16 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 4.12 | 2.91 | −1.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.02 | −0.19 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 7.33 | 6.11 | −1.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.94 | −0.28 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 4.97 | 3.74 | −1.23 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.98 | −0.26 |
| Air Power | National Security | 4.11 | 2.87 | −1.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.09 | −0.15 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 8.08 | 6.78 | −1.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.04 | −0.25 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 5.18 | 3.86 | −1.32 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.14 | −0.18 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 5.86 | 4.54 | −1.32 | +1.40 | 0.00 | −2.54 | −0.18 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 3.11 | 1.75 | −1.36 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.24 | −0.13 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 6.36 | 4.96 | −1.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.28 | −0.12 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 6.67 | 5.26 | −1.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.35 | −0.06 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 9.40 | 7.90 | −1.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.22 | −0.27 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 8.47 | 6.97 | −1.50 | +0.52 | 0.00 | −1.67 | −0.34 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 6.94 | 5.43 | −1.51 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.40 | −0.11 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 4.66 | 3.10 | −1.56 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.49 | −0.08 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 5.75 | 4.11 | −1.64 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.50 | −0.13 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 7.43 | 5.77 | −1.66 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.39 | −0.27 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 6.19 | 4.49 | −1.70 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.61 | −0.09 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 4.15 | 2.41 | −1.74 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.64 | −0.10 |
| Land Power | National Security | 5.59 | 3.83 | −1.76 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.45 | −0.32 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 8.15 | 6.37 | −1.78 | +0.64 | 0.00 | −2.19 | −0.23 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 9.81 | 8.02 | −1.79 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.36 | −0.42 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 5.45 | 3.64 | −1.81 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.72 | −0.10 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 7.79 | 5.92 | −1.87 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.62 | −0.25 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 6.10 | 4.21 | −1.89 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.78 | −0.11 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 8.97 | 7.05 | −1.92 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.87 | −0.05 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 7.90 | 5.96 | −1.94 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.73 | −0.21 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 6.21 | 4.19 | −2.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.78 | −0.24 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 9.53 | 7.46 | −2.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.69 | −0.38 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 7.62 | 5.55 | −2.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.93 | −0.14 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 6.33 | 4.23 | −2.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.80 | −0.30 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 8.01 | 5.86 | −2.15 | +1.21 | 0.00 | −3.34 | −0.02 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 5.66 | 3.51 | −2.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.95 | −0.20 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 8.43 | 6.27 | −2.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.15 | −0.01 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 6.96 | 4.78 | −2.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.00 | −0.18 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 6.91 | 4.73 | −2.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.99 | −0.19 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 7.76 | 5.48 | −2.28 | +0.66 | 0.00 | −2.42 | −0.52 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 6.02 | 3.70 | −2.32 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.22 | −0.10 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 5.63 | 3.30 | −2.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.18 | −0.15 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 7.21 | 4.78 | −2.43 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.27 | −0.15 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 6.33 | 3.86 | −2.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.15 | −0.32 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 8.94 | 6.24 | −2.70 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.07 | −0.62 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 8.52 | 5.76 | −2.76 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.17 | −0.58 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 6.34 | 3.56 | −2.78 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.50 | −0.27 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 7.01 | 4.13 | −2.88 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.58 | −0.30 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 7.16 | 4.18 | −2.98 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.85 | −0.12 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 7.50 | 4.47 | −3.03 | +1.07 | 0.00 | −3.75 | −0.34 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 7.71 | 4.58 | −3.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.06 | −0.08 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 7.39 | 4.11 | −3.28 | +1.78 | 0.00 | −4.63 | −0.43 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 6.27 | 2.88 | −3.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.06 | −0.33 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 7.76 | 3.66 | −4.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.99 | −0.10 |
Seed 21 of experiment cycle-003.e4-geo. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.