E4 · cycle-003.e4-idn

Indonesia, scripted, 30 years from 1996

30 simulations of 30 rounds from the 1996 position. Indonesia decides by the scripted method; scripted events: Global funding seizure in year 1, Legitimacy rupture in year 2, Core disaster in year 8, Global funding seizure in year 12, Trade bloc rupture in year 22, Severe pandemic in year 24.

Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seeds 1–30 · elasticity sampled within each bracket

The same configuration in other cycles: cycle 2.

Every simulation · Compare with another experiment · More experiments like this

Not a forecast

Simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values, to compare methods and test the model. Other nations stay at their 2026 ratings throughout.

Outcome across simulations

The median at 2026, with the 10th to the 90th percentile of the 30 simulations under it.

Capability index: 7.29 (−0.98); From 8.28; 7.28 to 7.30
Rank by index: 76; From 64; 76 to 76
Domains at Tier 1: 0; From 0; 0 to 0
Tier rank: 35; From 68; 35 to 36

Capability index by round

Rank by index, by round

Every objective at the position and at the horizon
Objective	1996	10th percentile	Median	90th percentile	Better
Capability indexprimary	8.28	7.28	7.29	7.30	higher
Rank by index	64	76	76	76	lower
Tier rank	68	35	35	36	lower
Domains at Tier 1	0	0	0	0	higher
Score sum	594.3	530.6	531.3	531.9	higher
Goal-weighted score	594.3	530.6	531.3	531.9	higher
Resilient score	594.3	531.3 (mean score sum over the simulations)			higher

The capability index is the mean of the three dimensions, each the mean of its domains, each the mean of its groups. Tiers are Pareto layers within each domain; the tier rank orders nations by domains held at Tier 1, then Tier 2, and so on. The goal-weighted score is the score sum unless the experiment sets a goal. The primary objective is the one the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it.

Credits

What each round’s credits went on in the median simulation. Across all simulations, build took 100 per cent, buy took 0 per cent, partner took 0 per cent of the 1,097 credits a simulation spent on actions.

Against history

Started from a reconstructed 1996 position and played along the pathway and shocks Indonesia actually had, then scored against the 2026 ratings. The position is an estimate, so part of any error is the reconstruction's. The calibration summary across all fifty nations is on the cycle's page under Loop.

Index 1996: 8.28; reconstructed
Observed 2026: 9.97; the Index's rating
Simulated 2026: 7.29; 7.24 to 7.34
Skill against persistence: −0.72; group error 2.90 against 1.68 if nothing changed

Domain	1996	Observed	Simulated	Bias	Direction
Critical Technology	4.64	5.79	4.00 4.0–4.0	−1.79	wrong
Strategic Infrastructure	9.54	11.55	9.03 8.9–9.1	−2.52	wrong
National Security	7.38	8.31	6.35 6.3–6.4	−1.96	wrong
Human Capital	8.74	9.43	10.03 9.9–10.1	+0.60	right
Information & Influence	8.48	10.50	6.70 6.6–6.8	−3.80	wrong
Governance & Integrity	8.49	10.55	8.30 8.3–8.3	−2.25	wrong
Financial Strength	9.31	11.60	7.95 7.9–8.0	−3.65	wrong
Production & Innovation	8.54	10.42	6.38 6.3–6.4	−4.03	wrong
Trade & Investment	9.37	11.57	6.90 6.9–6.9	−4.67	wrong

The history it was played under: shocks and events

1997 · S02 × 1.3 The Asian financial crisis collapsed the rupiah, broke the banking system and corporate balance sheets, forced an IMF rescue and produced a deep recession.
1998 · S05 × 0.9 Mass protests and elite defection forced President Soeharto to resign after 32 years, triggering a contested transition, communal violence and democratic reform.
2004 · S07 × 0.7 The Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami devastated Aceh, killing over 160,000 Indonesians and destroying coastal infrastructure, livelihoods and communities.
2008 · S02 × 0.5 The global financial crisis tightened capital flows and slowed growth, though Indonesia was far more resilient than in 1997 after banking and monetary reforms.
2018 · S01 × 0.3 The US-China trade war and rising trade restrictions disrupted Indonesian export markets and supply chains, but did not close regional trading blocs.
2020 · S10 × 0.9 The COVID-19 pandemic overwhelmed health systems, caused a large economic contraction and produced a severe, delayed death toll concentrated in Java.

The pathway: what it prioritised, period by period

1997–2003 · build · 5% each Responding to the Asian financial crisis and IMF conditionality, Indonesia recapitalised banks, created IBRA, granted Bank Indonesia independence and began administrative decentralisation. (Financial Infrastructure, Monetary & Currency Capability, Financial Regulation & Integrity, Financial Stability & Crisis Management, Government Effectiveness & Public Administration)
1999–2006 · build · 5% each The democratic transition amended the constitution, established the Constitutional Court and KPK, introduced direct elections and separated the police from the armed forces. (Political Institutions & Civic Participation, Justice System & Fundamental Rights, Transparency, Oversight & Accountability, Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption, Internal Security & Order)
2003–2014 · build · 5% each A constitutional mandate directed 20 per cent of the budget to education, while school operational funds, teacher certification and expanded community health insurance were rolled out. (Foundational Education, Advanced Education, Technical & Vocational Skills, Early Childhood Development, Health System Capability)
2005–2019 · build · 5% each Successive administrations accelerated toll roads, ports, power plants and rural electrification, while liberalising telecommunications and expanding mobile and internet coverage. (Transport Infrastructure, Energy Infrastructure, Communications & Digital Infrastructure, Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure, Resource Infrastructure)
2014–2024 · build · 5% each The Global Maritime Fulcrum, sea toll road and nickel downstreaming policy used export bans and state-backed smelters to move up the battery value chain and strengthen maritime connectivity. (Maritime Power, Resource Infrastructure, Global Value Chain Position, Energy Technologies)
2019–2026 · build · 2% each Indonesia prioritised digital payments, e-commerce, start-up growth, data centres and digital skills programmes, with substantial foreign investment in the digital economy. (Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies, Technology Adoption & Diffusion, Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship, Digital & AI Competence, Communications & Digital Infrastructure)

Reconstruction notes (deepseek-v4-pro): The main uncertainty is the precise 1996 position of a lower-middle-income, authoritarian Indonesia relative to the whole world, especially for critical technologies and national security, where official data are sparse and often flattering. The New Order's statistics and the disruption of the 1997-98 crisis make some scores approximate rather than exact. The mapping of real events to the stylised event library is also approximate in magnitude, particularly for the indirect effects of the US-China trade war.

Report

Written from the simulation record by the loop's narrator. Every figure names the query it came from, in square brackets.

Batch cycle-003. Model 0.2.0, graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.1. 30 simulations, seeds 1 to 30; probes on 10. Every figure is a distribution over simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values; it shows what the model implies under these settings, not what will happen. Other nations are frozen at their 2026 ratings. No reconstructed historical data is used in this experiment.

Headline

Indonesia played 30 rounds from 1996 under the scripted method, with scripted events, 30 times. Its capability index moved from 8.28 to a median of 7.29 (−0.98), with 90 per cent of simulations between 7.28 and 7.30 [experiment_objectives].

Starting position

In 1996 the nation ranks 64 on the index against the frozen field, holds 0 of nine domains at Tier 1 and has a tier rank of 68. Its base income is 228 credits a year, calibrated so that its 2026 position is affordable with headroom for investment.

What was decided

A simulation spent a median of 1,096 credits on moves. The five groups that took most were Financial Stability & Crisis Management (build, 74 credits, 6.7 per cent); Financial Infrastructure (build, 74 credits, 6.7 per cent); Financial Regulation & Integrity (build, 74 credits, 6.7 per cent); Monetary & Currency Capability (build, 74 credits, 6.7 per cent); Foundational Education (build, 72 credits, 6.6 per cent) [experiment_decisions_by_group]. By mode: build 100 per cent [experiment_decisions_by_group]. Concentration of spending (HHI) had a median of 0.050, and the most repeated action appeared in 27 per cent of rounds.

The leading domain by period: rounds 1 to 5, Financial Strength; rounds 6 to 10, Governance & Integrity; rounds 11 to 15, Human Capital; rounds 16 to 20, Human Capital; rounds 21 to 25, Strategic Infrastructure; rounds 26 to 30, Strategic Infrastructure [experiment_spend_by_period].

What the world did

A median simulation saw 6 shocks and 0 upside events. The most damaging per firing were S07 (30 firings in 30 simulations, −30.4 points each); S10 (30 firings in 30 simulations, −26.2 points each); S05 (30 firings in 30 simulations, −23.7 points each) [experiment_shocks].

The groups that lost most to shocks, per simulation: Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance −4.23; Monetary & Currency Capability −3.65; Financial System Depth & Access −3.38; Trade Facilitation & Logistics −3.28 [experiment_shock_damage_by_group].

The edges that carried most change through the graph, per simulation: Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance to Force Generation & Mobilisation (−0.72 points); Advanced Education to Research Talent & Knowledge Creation (+0.56 points); Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance to Social Infrastructure (−0.67 points) [experiment_propagation_by_edge].

Where it ended

At 2026 the median rank is 76 (5th to 95th percentile 76 to 76), the median count of Tier 1 domains 0 (0 to 0) and the median tier rank 35; the resilient score, the mean score sum over simulations, is 531 [experiment_objectives].

Why

Without shocks the index ends +2.140 higher on average, so the shocks cost about 2.140 index points [experiment_probe_attribution].

Holding instead of following this method changes the index by −1.012: that is the method's worth against doing nothing [experiment_probe_attribution].

Removing any single one of the five largest actions changes the index by between 0.000 and +0.009, for example 1997 build Financial Infrastructure (11 credits) [experiment_probe_attribution]. The largest actions by credits come late, when income is highest, and are rarely the most valuable.

Removing the largest shock of a simulation raises the index by +0.520 on average [experiment_probe_attribution].

The replay probe reproduces the simulations exactly (index change 0.000000), so the attributions are clean [experiment_probe_attribution].

Surprises

tier_jump (warn): largest gain in one domain within five years: 7 tiers (30 simulations above 2); tiers are reported, not an objective.

retired_words (warn): e4-idn/report.md: 'simulations' 1 time(s), first near line 38; use 'simulations'.

The simulation furthest from the median (seed 15) ends −0.02 from it, with 6 shocks and 0 upside events [experiment_outlier_simulations].

Comparison

This is the baseline (hold) experiment, or there is none for this nation in the batch.

Against history: from a reconstructed index of 8.28 the model ends at 7.29, where the 2026 ratings put it at 9.97. Group scores miss by 2.90 points on average, against 1.68 for assuming nothing changed (skill −0.72); the change in each domain has the right sign in 11 per cent of domains. Furthest below history: trade and investment (−4.67); furthest above: human capital (+0.60) [experiment_against_history]. The starting position is reconstructed, so part of the error is the reconstruction's.

What each decision and shock was worth

Counterfactual probes on the first 10 seeds: the same simulations with one thing changed, paired seed by seed. A removed decision or shock is taken out and the other decisions replayed unchanged, so the difference is that item's worth.

Probe	Index	Score sum	For example
Hold instead of the method	−1.012	−74.5
No shocks	+2.140	+148.6
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0
Without the 1st largest decision	+0.009	+0.5	1997 build Financial Infrastructure (11 credits)
Without the 2nd largest decision	+0.004	+0.5	1997 build Monetary & Currency Capability (11 credits)
Without the 3rd largest decision	+0.003	+0.4	1997 build Financial Regulation & Integrity (11 credits)
Without the 4th largest decision	+0.004	+0.5	1997 build Financial Stability & Crisis Management (11 credits)
Without the 5th largest decision	−0.000	−0.0	1997 build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration (11 credits)
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.520	+36.9	2004 S07 (-30.4 points)
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.425	+29.5	2020 S10 (-26.3 points)
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.353	+24.4	1998 S05 (-23.7 points)

Simulations

Three simulations told round by round, each on its own page: the one nearest the median index at the horizon, and those nearest the 10th and the 90th percentile. Every one of the 30 is listed with its outcome on the simulations page.

All 30 simulations

Events

How often each shock and upside event began across the simulations. Shocks come from the ten downside scenarios and upside events from the ten upside ones, at their yearly likelihood.

Event	Kind	Simulations	Mean round	Points
Trade bloc rupture S01	Shock	100 per cent	22.0	−8.7
Global funding seizure S02	Shock	100 per cent	6.5	−13.9
Legitimacy rupture S05	Shock	100 per cent	2.0	−23.7
Core disaster S07	Shock	100 per cent	8.0	−30.4
Severe pandemic S10	Shock	100 per cent	24.0	−26.2

Groups across simulations

Every capability group: its position, and its median and spread at the horizon across the simulations, with what the method spent on it.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	1996	2026	Change	Levels invested	Credits
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	8.57	15.30 15.25 to 15.36	+6.73	7.69	72
Advanced Education	Human Capital	8.70	12.69 12.60 to 12.77	+3.99	4.88	72
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	9.46	12.65 12.60 to 12.70	+3.19	4.58	72
Foundational Education	Human Capital	10.25	13.12 13.05 to 13.20	+2.87	4.44	72
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.28	13.88 13.85 to 13.89	+2.60	4.15	74
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	8.57	9.74 9.72 to 9.77	+1.17	3.93	74
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	8.75	9.75 9.73 to 9.76	+1.00	3.90	74
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	6.36	7.13 7.11 to 7.16	+0.77	1.84	29
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	7.74	8.49 8.45 to 8.52	+0.75	1.70	29
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	7.02	7.61 7.58 to 7.63	+0.59	1.70	29
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	6.94	7.52 7.50 to 7.54	+0.58	1.70	29
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.37	10.75 10.70 to 10.79	+0.38	2.00	42
Maritime Power	National Security	8.57	8.76 8.72 to 8.78	+0.19	1.46	41
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	5.83	5.95 5.90 to 6.03	+0.12	1.18	21
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	7.40	7.46 7.41 to 7.50	+0.06	1.79	38
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	11.34	11.36 11.27 to 11.46	+0.02	2.31	53
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	0.00	0.00 0.00 to 0.00	0.00	0.00	0
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	9.94	9.77 9.69 to 9.86	−0.17	3.63	74
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	4.04	3.76 3.75 to 3.79	−0.28	0.30	7
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	9.81	9.41 9.29 to 9.54	−0.40	1.97	45
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	8.26	7.84 7.74 to 7.93	−0.42	1.51	31
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	8.52	8.08 8.01 to 8.12	−0.44	0.23	7
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	9.48	9.00 8.97 to 9.07	−0.48	2.32	33
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	7.72	7.20 7.02 to 7.34	−0.52	0.00	0
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	3.07	2.53 2.53 to 2.54	−0.54	0.00	0
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	3.44	2.88 2.86 to 2.90	−0.56	0.00	0
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.38	10.80 10.72 to 10.93	−0.58	1.28	36
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	4.06	3.42 3.40 to 3.43	−0.64	0.00	0
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	4.52	3.79 3.78 to 3.81	−0.73	0.00	0
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	4.91	4.09 4.07 to 4.10	−0.82	0.00	0
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	8.58	7.74 7.56 to 7.86	−0.84	0.00	0
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	5.43	4.57 4.54 to 4.59	−0.86	0.00	0
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	5.70	4.83 4.80 to 4.85	−0.87	0.00	0
Space Operations	National Security	5.18	4.31 4.28 to 4.34	−0.87	0.00	0
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	5.86	4.95 4.93 to 4.98	−0.91	0.00	0
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	6.94	5.93 5.90 to 5.95	−1.01	0.00	0
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	10.61	9.55 9.49 to 9.60	−1.06	0.59	12
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	7.83	6.76 6.74 to 6.79	−1.07	0.00	0
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	8.03	6.85 6.71 to 6.94	−1.18	0.00	0
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	5.20	4.02 4.01 to 4.04	−1.18	0.00	0
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	8.34	7.14 7.14 to 7.15	−1.20	0.00	0
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	8.65	7.44 7.40 to 7.48	−1.21	0.00	0
Air Power	National Security	7.98	6.73 6.70 to 6.77	−1.25	0.00	0
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	8.71	7.44 7.39 to 7.48	−1.27	0.00	0
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	7.28	5.97 5.95 to 6.00	−1.31	0.00	0
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	7.91	6.39 6.27 to 6.49	−1.52	0.00	0
Population Health	Human Capital	8.48	6.96 6.90 to 6.99	−1.52	0.00	0
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	6.61	5.06 4.97 to 5.10	−1.55	0.00	0
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	6.67	5.09 5.06 to 5.11	−1.58	0.00	0
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.19	9.60 9.57 to 9.63	−1.59	0.00	0
Land Power	National Security	10.40	8.79 8.69 to 8.85	−1.61	0.00	0
Health System Capability	Human Capital	9.11	7.49 7.37 to 7.68	−1.62	0.81	16
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	8.64	6.98 6.96 to 7.01	−1.66	0.26	7
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	8.61	6.73 6.66 to 6.80	−1.88	0.21	7
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	9.57	7.59 7.54 to 7.64	−1.98	0.00	0
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	9.75	7.76 7.72 to 7.81	−1.99	0.00	0
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	8.45	6.45 6.41 to 6.50	−2.00	0.00	0
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	8.42	6.15 6.11 to 6.21	−2.27	0.00	0
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	7.99	5.72 5.71 to 5.74	−2.27	0.00	0
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	11.20	8.87 8.81 to 8.94	−2.33	0.00	0
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	9.83	7.40 7.38 to 7.41	−2.43	0.00	0
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	7.78	5.34 5.30 to 5.40	−2.44	0.00	0
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	11.68	9.23 9.00 to 9.41	−2.45	0.00	0
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	8.98	6.48 6.44 to 6.52	−2.50	0.00	0
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	8.13	5.56 5.49 to 5.67	−2.57	0.00	0
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	9.36	6.71 6.67 to 6.77	−2.65	0.00	0
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	9.94	7.15 7.12 to 7.18	−2.79	0.00	0
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	9.27	6.44 6.36 to 6.64	−2.83	0.00	0
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	10.94	7.88 7.83 to 7.95	−3.06	0.00	0
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	9.32	6.22 6.19 to 6.25	−3.10	0.00	0
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	9.83	6.55 6.53 to 6.57	−3.28	0.00	0
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	9.27	5.97 5.95 to 5.98	−3.30	0.00	0
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	10.32	5.73 5.65 to 5.80	−4.59	0.00	0

Checks

The automated checks run on this experiment before anything was written about it. A warning is a candidate finding for the improvement loop.

passcredits_conservedlargest gap between credits in and credits accounted for: 7.1e-15
passscores_in_boundsscores range 0.000 to 15.505
passno_nans0 missing values in the trajectory and objectives
passprobe_replay_reproducesthe recorded moves played back reproduce the simulation to within 0.0e+00 points (10 simulations)
passledger_balancesthe edge ledger sums to the propagated change to within 9.9e-07 points
passmove_without_shocklargest one-year move in a group with no shock landing: 1.03 points; 0% of simulations have one above 3
warntier_jumplargest gain in one domain within five years: 7 tiers (30 simulations above 2); tiers are reported, not an objective
passall_tier1_from_outside_top10starting rank 64; 0 simulations reach Tier 1 in all nine domains
passsaturation_high0% of simulations end with a group at 20 that did not start there (median 0 groups)
passsaturation_low0% of simulations end with a group at 0 that did not start there (median 0 groups)
passspend_concentrationmedian concentration of spending across groups (HHI) 0.050; most funded group hard.strategic_infrastructure.financial_infrastructure
passsame_actionthe most repeated move (group and mode) appears in a median 27% of rounds
passregression_index_p50index_p50 moved 16.1% since cycle-002 (6.28 to 7.29); versions changed (0.1.0 to 0.1.1, graph 0.2.0 to 0.2.0)
passregression_score_sum_p50score_sum_p50 moved 16.4% since cycle-002 (456.61 to 531.32); versions changed (0.1.0 to 0.1.1, graph 0.2.0 to 0.2.0)

Settings and versions

Experiment cycle-003.e4-idn. Every simulation records the model, graph and parameter versions, the scenario, the method and its seed, so it can be reproduced exactly.

Nation: Indonesia (IDN)
Position: A reconstructed 1996 position, aligned to the Index's scale
Method: Scripted. Actions fixed in advance by the experiment: for a backcast, the nation's historical pathway.
Scenario: Scripted events: Global funding seizure in year 1, Legitimacy rupture in year 2, Core disaster in year 8, Global funding seizure in year 12, Trade bloc rupture in year 22, Severe pandemic in year 24
Objective: Capability index, the primary objective the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it
Horizon: 30 rounds, 1996 to 2026
Simulations: 30 seeds, 1 to 30. Every method in the batch faces the same draws for the same seed.
Graph elasticities: Drawn for each simulation, uniformly within each edge’s bracket
Income: Base credits 228.5 a round, moving with the economic groups
Versions: Model 0.2.0, Capability Dependency Graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.1
Batch: Backcast 1996-2026 (cycle-003), cycle 3 of the improvement loop
Runtime: 7.3 seconds in all; 1821 microseconds a round

Not a forecast: Every figure is a distribution over the simulations of a structural model, reported to compare methods and test the model. None is a prediction of what a nation will do or become.
Structural parameters: Costs, decay, vulnerability and credits are structural seed values with low or medium confidence, set by domain with single-group exceptions. Five groups have no defensible value in a single-nation model and are flagged in the parameter tables.
Other nations are frozen: One nation is simulated at a time. Every other nation stays at its 2026 rating, so rank and tiers are measured against a still field; where the simulated nation rises past others their own tiers are not re-sorted.
Starting depth and mode are defaults: The position is the National Capability Index ratings. How institutionalised each capability is, and how much was built, bought or partnered, have no data behind them yet and start from structural defaults.
Credits are calibrated, not measured: Each nation’s income is set so that its position is affordable with headroom that rises with its fiscal capacity. It is not yet fiscal capacity as a share of GDP.