Median simulation · cycle-003.e4-idn

Simulation 23

Indonesia, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 23: median simulation of the experiment's 30. Capability index 8.28 at the 1996 position, 7.29 in 2026; 136 actions over 30 rounds and 6 shocks.

Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 23

The experiment · The other representative simulations: 25 (a poor simulation (10th percentile)), 9 (a good simulation (90th percentile))

Outcome

From the 1996 position to 2026.

Capability index: 7.29 (−0.98); From 8.28
Rank by index: 76; From 64
Domains at Tier 1: 0; From 0
Events: 6 shocks; 0 upside events

Trajectory by domain

The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.

ShockUpside event

Capability index by round

Pathway, round by round

Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.

Round	Decision	Events	Index
1997	Build Financial Infrastructure 11 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 11 Build Financial Regulation & Integrity 11 Build Financial Stability & Crisis Management 11 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 11	Global funding seizure	7.97 −0.309
1998	Build Financial Infrastructure 11 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 11 Build Financial Regulation & Integrity 11 Build Financial Stability & Crisis Management 11 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 6	Legitimacy rupture	7.64 −0.322
1999	Build Financial Infrastructure 11 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 11 Build Financial Regulation & Integrity 11 Build Financial Stability & Crisis Management 11 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 7		7.67 +0.027
2000	Build Financial Infrastructure 10 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 10 Build Financial Regulation & Integrity 10 Build Financial Stability & Crisis Management 10 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 8		7.70 +0.028
2001	Build Financial Infrastructure 10 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 10 Build Financial Regulation & Integrity 10 Build Financial Stability & Crisis Management 10 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 8		7.73 +0.029
2002	Build Financial Infrastructure 10 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 10 Build Financial Regulation & Integrity 10 Build Financial Stability & Crisis Management 10 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 7		7.76 +0.027
2003	Build Financial Infrastructure 10 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 10 Build Financial Regulation & Integrity 10 Build Financial Stability & Crisis Management 10 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 7		7.79 +0.030
2004	Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 10 Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 10 Build Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 10 Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 10 Build Internal Security & Order 6	Core disaster	7.38 −0.404
2005	Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 10 Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 10 Build Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 10 Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 10 Build Internal Security & Order 2		7.40 +0.019
2006	Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 9 Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 9 Build Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 9 Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 9 Build Internal Security & Order 4		7.41 +0.009
2007	Build Foundational Education 9 Build Advanced Education 9 Build Technical & Vocational Skills 9 Build Early Childhood Development 9 Build Health System Capability 4		7.43 +0.017
2008	Build Foundational Education 9 Build Advanced Education 9 Build Technical & Vocational Skills 9 Build Early Childhood Development 9 Build Health System Capability 4	Global funding seizure	7.35 −0.081
2009	Build Foundational Education 9 Build Advanced Education 9 Build Technical & Vocational Skills 9 Build Early Childhood Development 9 Build Health System Capability 1		7.37 +0.025
2010	Build Foundational Education 9 Build Advanced Education 9 Build Technical & Vocational Skills 9 Build Early Childhood Development 9 Build Health System Capability 2		7.40 +0.031
2011	Build Foundational Education 9 Build Advanced Education 9 Build Technical & Vocational Skills 9 Build Early Childhood Development 9 Build Health System Capability 2		7.43 +0.032
2012	Build Foundational Education 9 Build Advanced Education 9 Build Technical & Vocational Skills 9 Build Early Childhood Development 9 Build Health System Capability 1		7.47 +0.033
2013	Build Foundational Education 9 Build Advanced Education 9 Build Technical & Vocational Skills 9 Build Early Childhood Development 9 Build Health System Capability 1		7.50 +0.033
2014	Build Foundational Education 9 Build Advanced Education 9 Build Technical & Vocational Skills 9 Build Early Childhood Development 9 Build Health System Capability 1		7.53 +0.034
2015	Build Transport Infrastructure 9 Build Energy Infrastructure 9 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 9 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 9		7.57 +0.035
2016	Build Transport Infrastructure 9 Build Energy Infrastructure 9 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 9 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 8		7.60 +0.033
2017	Build Transport Infrastructure 9 Build Energy Infrastructure 9 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 9 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 8		7.63 +0.032
2018	Build Transport Infrastructure 9 Build Energy Infrastructure 9 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 9 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 7	Trade bloc rupture	7.62 −0.011
2019	Build Transport Infrastructure 9 Build Energy Infrastructure 3		7.60 −0.020
2020	Build Maritime Power 8 Build Resource Infrastructure 3	Severe pandemic	7.20 −0.405
2021	Build Maritime Power 8 Build Resource Infrastructure 8 Build Global Value Chain Position 8 Build Energy Technologies 8		7.21 +0.016
2022	Build Maritime Power 8 Build Resource Infrastructure 8 Build Global Value Chain Position 8 Build Energy Technologies 5		7.23 +0.016
2023	Build Maritime Power 8 Build Resource Infrastructure 8 Build Global Value Chain Position 8 Build Energy Technologies 4		7.25 +0.018
2024	Build Maritime Power 8 Build Resource Infrastructure 8 Build Global Value Chain Position 8 Build Energy Technologies 4		7.27 +0.017
2025	Build Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 3 Build Technology Adoption & Diffusion 3 Build Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 3 Build Digital & AI Competence 3 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 3		7.28 +0.014
2026	Build Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 3 Build Technology Adoption & Diffusion 3 Build Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 3 Build Digital & AI Competence 3 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 3		7.29 +0.014

Credits

What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.

Tiers by round

Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.

Domain	1996					2001					2006					2011					2016					2021					2026
Critical Technology	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	9	9	9	9	9	9	9
Strategic Infrastructure	6	6	6	6	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5
National Security	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8
Human Capital	11	11	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	11	11	8	6	6	4	4	3	3	3	4	4	4	3	3	3	3
Information & Influence	7	8	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	11	11	11	11	11	11	11
Governance & Integrity	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13
Financial Strength	16	17	19	18	17	16	16	15	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	17	17	17	17
Production & Innovation	14	14	15	15	15	15	15	15	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17
Trade & Investment	11	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	14	14	14	14	13	13	13

Probes

What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.

Probe	Index	Score sum
Hold instead of the method	−1.012	−74.5
No shocks	+2.140	+148.6
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0
Without the 1st largest decision	+0.009	+0.5
Without the 2nd largest decision	+0.004	+0.5
Without the 3rd largest decision	+0.003	+0.4
Without the 4th largest decision	+0.004	+0.5
Without the 5th largest decision	0.000	−0.0
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.520	+36.9
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.425	+29.5
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.353	+24.4

Every group over the simulation

Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	1996	2026	Change	Invested	Events	Graph
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	8.57	15.33	+6.76	+7.69	−1.03	+0.11
Advanced Education	Human Capital	8.70	12.67	+3.97	+4.87	−1.07	+0.17
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	9.46	12.63	+3.17	+4.57	−1.12	−0.27
Foundational Education	Human Capital	10.25	13.14	+2.89	+4.43	−1.48	−0.07
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.28	13.86	+2.58	+4.15	−1.63	+0.05
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	8.57	9.71	+1.14	+3.93	−2.81	+0.03
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	8.75	9.73	+0.98	+3.90	−2.84	−0.08
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	6.36	7.13	+0.77	+1.84	−1.11	+0.04
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	7.74	8.49	+0.75	+1.70	−1.09	+0.14
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	7.02	7.61	+0.59	+1.69	−1.20	+0.10
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	6.94	7.51	+0.57	+1.70	−1.19	+0.07
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.37	10.80	+0.43	+1.99	−1.46	−0.10
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	5.83	5.99	+0.16	+1.18	−0.96	−0.07
Maritime Power	National Security	8.57	8.72	+0.15	+1.46	−1.08	−0.24
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	7.40	7.48	+0.08	+1.79	−1.50	−0.21
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	11.34	11.36	+0.02	+2.30	−2.40	+0.11
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	−0.01
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	9.94	9.71	−0.23	+3.64	−3.65	−0.22
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	4.04	3.76	−0.28	+0.30	−0.57	−0.01
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	9.81	9.50	−0.31	+1.96	−1.91	−0.36
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	8.26	7.93	−0.33	+1.51	−1.65	−0.20
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	7.72	7.32	−0.40	0.00	−0.97	+0.57
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	8.52	8.11	−0.41	+0.23	−1.05	+0.42
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	9.48	8.97	−0.51	+2.32	−2.47	−0.37
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	3.07	2.54	−0.53	0.00	−0.49	−0.04
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	3.44	2.87	−0.57	0.00	−0.48	−0.09
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.38	10.76	−0.62	+1.28	−1.47	−0.43
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	4.06	3.40	−0.66	0.00	−0.57	−0.10
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	4.52	3.78	−0.74	0.00	−0.63	−0.11
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	4.91	4.10	−0.81	0.00	−0.77	−0.04
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	5.43	4.58	−0.85	0.00	−0.74	−0.11
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	5.70	4.83	−0.87	0.00	−0.75	−0.12
Space Operations	National Security	5.18	4.31	−0.87	0.00	−0.69	−0.18
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	5.86	4.98	−0.88	0.00	−0.80	−0.07
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	6.94	5.95	−0.99	0.00	−0.90	−0.09
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	10.61	9.59	−1.02	+0.58	−1.61	0.00
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	8.58	7.54	−1.04	0.00	−1.23	+0.19
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	7.83	6.76	−1.07	0.00	−0.97	−0.09
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	8.03	6.93	−1.10	0.00	−1.50	+0.40
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	5.20	4.04	−1.16	0.00	−1.09	−0.06
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	8.34	7.14	−1.20	0.00	−1.20	0.00
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	8.65	7.42	−1.23	0.00	−1.09	−0.13
Air Power	National Security	7.98	6.72	−1.26	0.00	−1.01	−0.25
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	7.28	5.99	−1.29	0.00	−1.37	+0.08
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	8.71	7.36	−1.35	0.00	−1.09	−0.26
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	6.61	5.13	−1.48	0.00	−1.23	−0.26
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	7.91	6.41	−1.50	0.00	−1.13	−0.37
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	6.67	5.13	−1.54	0.00	−1.43	−0.12
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.19	9.64	−1.55	0.00	−1.48	−0.08
Health System Capability	Human Capital	9.11	7.55	−1.56	+0.78	−1.95	−0.39
Population Health	Human Capital	8.48	6.92	−1.56	0.00	−1.33	−0.22
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	8.64	7.02	−1.62	+0.26	−1.81	−0.07
Land Power	National Security	10.40	8.63	−1.77	0.00	−1.24	−0.52
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	8.61	6.73	−1.88	+0.21	−1.79	−0.30
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	9.75	7.78	−1.97	0.00	−1.77	−0.20
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	9.57	7.54	−2.03	0.00	−1.78	−0.25
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	8.45	6.41	−2.04	0.00	−1.76	−0.28
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	8.42	6.18	−2.24	0.00	−2.05	−0.20
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	11.20	8.94	−2.26	0.00	−2.10	−0.16
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	7.99	5.71	−2.28	0.00	−2.26	−0.01
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	9.83	7.43	−2.40	0.00	−2.40	0.00
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	7.78	5.32	−2.46	0.00	−2.05	−0.41
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	8.98	6.50	−2.48	0.00	−2.38	−0.11
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	9.27	6.70	−2.57	0.00	−2.18	−0.40
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	8.13	5.50	−2.63	0.00	−2.50	−0.13
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	11.68	9.01	−2.67	0.00	−1.80	−0.88
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	9.36	6.63	−2.73	0.00	−2.42	−0.31
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	9.94	7.13	−2.81	0.00	−2.70	−0.11
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	10.94	7.91	−3.03	0.00	−2.77	−0.26
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	9.32	6.24	−3.08	0.00	−3.08	−0.01
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	9.83	6.55	−3.28	0.00	−3.38	+0.10
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	9.27	5.97	−3.30	0.00	−3.28	−0.02
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	10.32	5.73	−4.59	0.00	−4.22	−0.37

Seed 23 of experiment cycle-003.e4-idn. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.