Simulation 9
Ireland, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 9: median simulation of the experiment's 30. Capability index 11.93 at the 1996 position, 11.84 in 2026; 117 actions over 30 rounds and 3 shocks.
Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 9
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 27 (a poor simulation (10th percentile)), 10 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 1996 position to 2026.
- Capability index
- 11.84 (−0.09)
- From 11.93
- Rank by index
- 29
- From 29
- Domains at Tier 1
- 4
- From 1
- Events
- 3 shocks
- 1 upside event
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1997 |
| 11.96 +0.028 | |
| 1998 |
| 12.01 +0.056 | |
| 1999 |
| 12.08 +0.065 | |
| 2000 |
| 12.14 +0.061 | |
| 2001 |
| 12.20 +0.058 | |
| 2002 |
| 12.26 +0.063 | |
| 2003 |
| 12.33 +0.068 | |
| 2004 |
| 12.41 +0.081 | |
| 2005 |
| 12.49 +0.083 | |
| 2006 |
| 12.57 +0.078 | |
| 2007 |
| 12.64 +0.071 | |
| 2008 |
| Global funding seizure | 12.19 −0.446 |
| 2009 |
| 12.24 +0.051 | |
| 2010 |
| 12.29 +0.048 | |
| 2011 |
| 12.35 +0.052 | |
| 2012 |
| 12.39 +0.049 | |
| 2013 |
| Debt service reset | 12.44 +0.047 |
| 2014 |
| 12.49 +0.053 | |
| 2015 |
| 12.55 +0.055 | |
| 2016 |
| 12.60 +0.049 | |
| 2017 |
| 12.64 +0.042 | |
| 2018 |
| 12.67 +0.030 | |
| 2019 | No actions | 12.69 +0.018 | |
| 2020 | No actions | Trade bloc ruptureSevere pandemic | 12.12 −0.574 |
| 2021 |
| 11.95 −0.162 | |
| 2022 |
| 11.79 −0.169 | |
| 2023 |
| 11.80 +0.012 | |
| 2024 |
| 11.81 +0.015 | |
| 2025 |
| 11.82 +0.010 | |
| 2026 |
| 11.84 +0.012 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 1996 | 2001 | 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | 2021 | 2026 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| National Security | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| Human Capital | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Governance & Integrity | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Financial Strength | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Production & Innovation | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Trade & Investment | 5 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds, this one among them: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −1.683 | −115.9 | −4.00 |
| No shocks | +1.023 | +67.9 | +1.00 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | +0.002 | +0.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | +0.008 | +0.6 | −1.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | +0.011 | +1.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | +0.018 | +1.6 | −1.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | +0.012 | +1.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.182 | +10.9 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.524 | +36.1 | +1.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.368 | +25.5 | +1.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 1996 | 2026 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.40 | 19.16 | +7.76 | +8.22 | −0.01 | −0.74 | +0.28 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 13.39 | 20.00 | +6.61 | +7.54 | −0.01 | −0.62 | +0.42 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 13.08 | 18.71 | +5.63 | +6.93 | −0.01 | −1.37 | +0.09 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.43 | 18.56 | +5.13 | +5.28 | −0.01 | −0.86 | +0.72 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.21 | 18.45 | +4.24 | +5.01 | −0.01 | −0.81 | +0.06 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 12.16 | 15.94 | +3.78 | +6.31 | −0.01 | −2.56 | +0.04 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 12.79 | 16.29 | +3.50 | +5.75 | −0.01 | −2.39 | +0.15 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 12.84 | 16.28 | +3.44 | +5.87 | −0.01 | −2.22 | −0.20 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 15.39 | 18.77 | +3.38 | +6.30 | −0.01 | −2.75 | −0.04 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 14.66 | 18.03 | +3.37 | +3.90 | −0.01 | −0.73 | +0.21 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 14.36 | 17.69 | +3.33 | +6.36 | −0.01 | −2.77 | −0.25 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 13.66 | 16.86 | +3.20 | +5.20 | −0.01 | −1.96 | −0.04 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 6.36 | 9.34 | +2.98 | +4.01 | −0.01 | −1.06 | +0.04 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 14.88 | 16.76 | +1.88 | +2.97 | 0.00 | −1.32 | +0.23 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 13.49 | 14.51 | +1.02 | +1.85 | 0.00 | −1.12 | +0.30 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 9.48 | 9.85 | +0.37 | +0.64 | −0.01 | −0.56 | +0.30 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 10.52 | 10.66 | +0.14 | +1.50 | −0.01 | −1.40 | +0.05 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 12.04 | 11.96 | −0.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.73 | +0.66 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 12.95 | 12.83 | −0.12 | +0.81 | 0.00 | −1.26 | +0.33 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 15.08 | 14.96 | −0.12 | +1.33 | −0.01 | −1.96 | +0.51 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 7.48 | 7.29 | −0.19 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −0.46 | +0.27 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 4.51 | 4.13 | −0.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.27 | −0.10 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 4.58 | 4.20 | −0.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.28 | −0.09 |
| Air Power | National Security | 6.32 | 5.89 | −0.43 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −0.38 | −0.05 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 8.12 | 7.68 | −0.44 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −0.47 | +0.03 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.88 | 11.44 | −0.44 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −0.81 | +0.37 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 6.44 | 5.98 | −0.46 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.56 | +0.10 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 7.36 | 6.89 | −0.47 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −0.43 | −0.03 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 14.91 | 14.44 | −0.47 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −1.00 | +0.54 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.61 | 10.13 | −0.48 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −0.82 | +0.34 |
| Land Power | National Security | 7.73 | 7.22 | −0.51 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −0.45 | −0.05 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 3.53 | 2.98 | −0.55 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.54 | −0.01 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 11.19 | 10.62 | −0.57 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.74 | +0.17 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 8.65 | 8.06 | −0.59 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −0.49 | −0.08 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 8.82 | 8.19 | −0.63 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.74 | +0.11 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 11.74 | 10.98 | −0.76 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.74 | −0.02 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 14.05 | 13.25 | −0.80 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.86 | +0.06 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 5.78 | 4.95 | −0.83 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −0.85 | +0.03 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 14.70 | 13.87 | −0.83 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −0.70 | −0.12 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.66 | 13.80 | −0.86 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −0.78 | −0.07 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 14.36 | 13.47 | −0.89 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.85 | −0.03 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 14.09 | 13.16 | −0.93 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.86 | −0.06 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 14.79 | 13.85 | −0.94 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.85 | −0.08 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 13.66 | 12.71 | −0.95 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −1.66 | +0.72 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 14.39 | 13.43 | −0.96 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.85 | −0.10 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.64 | 13.62 | −1.02 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −1.09 | +0.09 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 13.79 | 12.74 | −1.05 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −2.55 | +1.51 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 14.99 | 13.93 | −1.06 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −1.35 | +0.29 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 6.58 | 5.51 | −1.07 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −0.95 | −0.11 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.97 | 12.86 | −1.11 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −0.79 | −0.31 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 14.05 | 12.93 | −1.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.14 | +0.02 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 12.68 | 11.53 | −1.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.04 | −0.10 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 16.91 | 15.64 | −1.27 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −1.31 | +0.05 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 8.23 | 6.92 | −1.31 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −1.16 | −0.14 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 11.60 | 10.26 | −1.34 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −1.41 | +0.07 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 14.53 | 13.14 | −1.39 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −1.65 | +0.26 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 9.88 | 8.41 | −1.47 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −1.38 | −0.08 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 10.48 | 8.84 | −1.64 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −1.43 | −0.21 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 9.69 | 7.79 | −1.90 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −1.87 | −0.01 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 10.40 | 8.47 | −1.93 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.78 | −0.14 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 12.91 | 10.94 | −1.97 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −1.87 | −0.10 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 10.65 | 8.65 | −2.00 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −1.96 | −0.03 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 13.30 | 11.29 | −2.01 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −1.67 | −0.32 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 12.39 | 10.34 | −2.05 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −2.37 | +0.33 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 11.20 | 9.10 | −2.10 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −1.98 | −0.12 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 12.10 | 9.74 | −2.36 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −2.39 | +0.04 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 13.07 | 10.71 | −2.36 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −2.21 | −0.14 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 13.93 | 11.52 | −2.41 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −2.40 | −0.01 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 15.26 | 12.48 | −2.78 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −2.58 | −0.19 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 10.34 | 7.52 | −2.82 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −2.64 | −0.17 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 15.33 | 12.50 | −2.83 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −2.58 | −0.25 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 12.93 | 10.06 | −2.87 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −2.66 | −0.20 |
Seed 9 of experiment cycle-003.e4-irl. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.