E4 · cycle-003.e4-irl

Ireland, scripted, 30 years from 1996

30 simulations of 30 rounds from the 1996 position. Ireland decides by the scripted method; scripted events: Global funding seizure in year 12, Debt service reset in year 17, Trade bloc rupture in year 24, Severe pandemic in year 24.

Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seeds 1–30 · elasticity sampled within each bracket

The same configuration in other cycles: cycle 2.

Every simulation · Compare with another experiment · More experiments like this

Not a forecast

Simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values, to compare methods and test the model. Other nations stay at their 2026 ratings throughout.

Outcome across simulations

The median at 2026, with the 10th to the 90th percentile of the 30 simulations under it.

Capability index: 11.84 (−0.09); From 11.93; 11.82 to 11.84
Rank by index: 29; From 29; 29 to 29
Domains at Tier 1: 4; From 1; 4 to 4
Tier rank: 5; From 19; 5 to 5

Capability index by round

Rank by index, by round

Every objective at the position and at the horizon
Objective	1996	10th percentile	Median	90th percentile	Better
Capability indexprimary	11.93	11.82	11.84	11.84	higher
Rank by index	29	29	29	29	lower
Tier rank	19	5	5	5	lower
Domains at Tier 1	1	4	4	4	higher
Score sum	846.3	840.8	841.7	842.4	higher
Goal-weighted score	846.3	840.8	841.7	842.4	higher
Resilient score	846.3	841.7 (mean score sum over the simulations)			higher

The capability index is the mean of the three dimensions, each the mean of its domains, each the mean of its groups. Tiers are Pareto layers within each domain; the tier rank orders nations by domains held at Tier 1, then Tier 2, and so on. The goal-weighted score is the score sum unless the experiment sets a goal. The primary objective is the one the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it.

Credits

What each round’s credits went on in the median simulation. Across all simulations, build took 77 per cent, buy took 0 per cent, partner took 23 per cent of the 2,350 credits a simulation spent on actions.

Against history

Started from a reconstructed 1996 position and played along the pathway and shocks Ireland actually had, then scored against the 2026 ratings. The position is an estimate, so part of any error is the reconstruction's. The calibration summary across all fifty nations is on the cycle's page under Loop.

Index 1996: 11.93; reconstructed
Observed 2026: 12.08; the Index's rating
Simulated 2026: 11.83; 11.78 to 11.89
Skill against persistence: −0.57; group error 2.07 against 1.32 if nothing changed

Domain	1996	Observed	Simulated	Bias	Direction
Critical Technology	8.33	7.14	7.51 7.5–7.5	+0.37	right
Strategic Infrastructure	12.01	11.61	13.22 13.2–13.3	+1.61	wrong
National Security	6.42	4.31	6.12 6.1–6.2	+1.81	right
Human Capital	13.14	14.97	13.79 13.7–13.8	−1.18	right
Information & Influence	13.02	12.44	11.46 11.4–11.5	−0.98	right
Governance & Integrity	14.26	15.07	13.94 13.9–14.0	−1.14	wrong
Financial Strength	13.00	14.38	14.53 14.5–14.6	+0.15	right
Production & Innovation	13.17	14.25	13.25 13.2–13.3	−1.00	wrong
Trade & Investment	14.02	14.51	12.69 12.6–12.8	−1.82	wrong

The history it was played under: shocks and events

2008 · S02 × 1.3 The global financial crisis burst Ireland's property bubble, froze bank funding and led to the bank guarantee and EU/IMF bailout.
2013 · S11 × 0.5 Ireland exited the EU/IMF programme and regained market access, releasing fiscal capacity.
2020 · S01 × 0.8 The UK left the EU single market and customs union, disrupting Irish-UK trade, supply chains and Northern Ireland border arrangements.
2020 · S10 × 0.9 COVID-19 caused repeated lockdowns, hospital strain and school closures, but Ireland's response avoided the most severe mortality scenario.

The pathway: what it prioritised, period by period

1997–2001 · partner · 5% each The Celtic Tiger strategy used IDA Ireland to attract US multinationals while EU structural funds and the National Development Plan upgraded infrastructure and skills. (Investment Attraction & Projection, Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance, Advanced Education, Transport Infrastructure, Communications & Digital Infrastructure)
2002–2007 · build · 5% each Euro adoption and the second National Development Plan expanded roads, housing and Science Foundation Ireland research while the IFSC deepened financial services. (Monetary & Currency Capability, Financial System Depth & Access, Transport Infrastructure, Social Infrastructure, Innovation & Commercialisation)
2008–2013 · build · 5% each The banking and sovereign debt crisis forced bank recapitalisation, the EU/IMF programme, fiscal consolidation and public-sector reform. (Financial Stability & Crisis Management, Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance, Labour & Employment, Government Effectiveness & Public Administration, Financial Regulation & Integrity)
2014–2019 · build · 5% each Recovery policy pursued FDI, R&D, digital skills and renewable energy while housing shortages re-emerged. (Investment Attraction & Projection, Innovation & Commercialisation, Digital & AI Competence, Energy Technologies, Social Infrastructure)
2020–2023 · build · 5% each COVID-19 demanded health surge capacity, remote public services and stronger cyber defences while Brexit required trade adjustment. (National Resilience & Crisis Management, Health System Capability, Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies, Digital & Services Trade, Government Effectiveness & Public Administration)
2024–2026 · build · 2% each Post-pandemic Ireland prioritised housing, renewable energy, modest defence modernisation and continued digital and connectivity investment. (Social Infrastructure, Energy Technologies, Force Generation & Mobilisation, Digital & AI Competence, Communications & Digital Infrastructure)

Reconstruction notes (deepseek-v4-pro): The main uncertainties concern the attribution of multinational activity in Ireland to national capability, especially in semiconductors, biopharmaceuticals and financial services, where foreign-owned plants and IFSC firms account for much of the measured activity. Military and security scores are inferred from a small, neutral state with very limited expeditionary capacity, so exact calibration is approximate. The boundaries between Irish and EU policy, particularly in trade, monetary and regulatory governance, blur the national score in several domains.

Report

Written from the simulation record by the loop's narrator. Every figure names the query it came from, in square brackets.

Batch cycle-003. Model 0.2.0, graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.1. 30 simulations, seeds 1 to 30; probes on 10. Every figure is a distribution over simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values; it shows what the model implies under these settings, not what will happen. Other nations are frozen at their 2026 ratings. No reconstructed historical data is used in this experiment.

Headline

Ireland played 30 rounds from 1996 under the scripted method, with scripted events, 30 times. Its capability index moved from 11.93 to a median of 11.83 (−0.09), with 90 per cent of simulations between 11.82 and 11.85 [experiment_objectives].

Starting position

In 1996 the nation ranks 29 on the index against the frozen field, holds 1 of nine domains at Tier 1 and has a tier rank of 19. Its base income is 426 credits a year, calibrated so that its 2026 position is affordable with headroom for investment.

What was decided

A simulation spent a median of 2,344 credits on moves. The five groups that took most were Innovation & Commercialisation (build, 236 credits, 10.0 per cent); Social Infrastructure (build, 181 credits, 7.7 per cent); Financial Stability & Crisis Management (build, 142 credits, 6.0 per cent); Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance (build, 142 credits, 6.0 per cent); Monetary & Currency Capability (build, 140 credits, 6.0 per cent) [experiment_decisions_by_group]. By mode: build 77 per cent, partner 23 per cent [experiment_decisions_by_group]. Concentration of spending (HHI) had a median of 0.073, and the most repeated action appeared in 33 per cent of rounds.

The leading domain by period: rounds 1 to 5, Strategic Infrastructure; rounds 6 to 10, Financial Strength; rounds 11 to 15, Financial Strength; rounds 16 to 20, Production & Innovation; rounds 21 to 25, Trade & Investment; rounds 26 to 30, Strategic Infrastructure [experiment_spend_by_period].

What the world did

A median simulation saw 3 shocks and 1 upside events. The most damaging per firing were S02 (30 firings in 30 simulations, −33.3 points each); S01 (30 firings in 30 simulations, −32.9 points each); S10 (30 firings in 30 simulations, −28.9 points each) [experiment_shocks]. Upside events fired 30 times across all simulations [experiment_shocks].

The groups that lost most to shocks, per simulation: Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance −2.78; Investment Attraction & Projection −2.75; Export Capability & Sophistication −2.66; Economic Leverage & Dependence −2.64 [experiment_shock_damage_by_group].

The edges that carried most change through the graph, per simulation: Transport Infrastructure to Trade Facilitation & Logistics (+1.32 points); Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance to Social Infrastructure (+0.52 points); Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance to Force Generation & Mobilisation (+0.31 points) [experiment_propagation_by_edge].

Where it ended

At 2026 the median rank is 29 (5th to 95th percentile 29 to 29), the median count of Tier 1 domains 4 (4 to 4) and the median tier rank 5; the resilient score, the mean score sum over simulations, is 842 [experiment_objectives].

Tier 1 probability changed most in: human capital (0 to 100 per cent of simulations); information and influence (100 to 0 per cent of simulations); production and innovation (0 to 100 per cent of simulations); strategic infrastructure (0 to 100 per cent of simulations); trade and investment (0 to 100 per cent of simulations) [experiment_tiers_by_round].

Why

Without shocks the index ends +1.023 higher on average, so the shocks cost about 1.023 index points [experiment_probe_attribution].

Holding instead of following this method changes the index by −1.683: that is the method's worth against doing nothing [experiment_probe_attribution].

Removing any single one of the five largest actions changes the index by between +0.002 and +0.018, for example 2017 build Investment Attraction & Projection (26 credits) [experiment_probe_attribution]. The largest actions by credits come late, when income is highest, and are rarely the most valuable.

Removing the largest shock of a simulation raises the index by +0.525 on average [experiment_probe_attribution].

The replay probe reproduces the simulations exactly (index change 0.000000), so the attributions are clean [experiment_probe_attribution].

Surprises

tier_jump (warn): largest gain in one domain within five years: 7 tiers (30 simulations above 2); tiers are reported, not an objective.

saturation_high (warn): 100% of simulations end with a group at 20 that did not start there (median 1 groups).

retired_words (warn): e4-irl/report.md: 'simulations' 2 time(s), first near line 39; use 'simulations'.

The simulation furthest from the median (seed 30) ends +0.02 from it, with 3 shocks and 1 upside events [experiment_outlier_simulations].

Comparison

This is the baseline (hold) experiment, or there is none for this nation in the batch.

Against history: from a reconstructed index of 11.93 the model ends at 11.83, where the 2026 ratings put it at 12.08. Group scores miss by 2.07 points on average, against 1.32 for assuming nothing changed (skill −0.57); the change in each domain has the right sign in 56 per cent of domains. Furthest below history: trade and investment (−1.82); furthest above: national security (+1.81) [experiment_against_history]. The starting position is reconstructed, so part of the error is the reconstruction's.

What each decision and shock was worth

Counterfactual probes on the first 10 seeds: the same simulations with one thing changed, paired seed by seed. A removed decision or shock is taken out and the other decisions replayed unchanged, so the difference is that item's worth.

Probe	Index	Score sum	Tier 1	For example
Hold instead of the method	−1.683	−115.9	−4.00
No shocks	+1.023	+67.9	+1.00
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0	0.00
Without the 1st largest decision	+0.002	+0.1	0.00	2017 build Investment Attraction & Projection (26 credits)
Without the 2nd largest decision	+0.008	+0.6	−1.00	2017 build Innovation & Commercialisation (26 credits)
Without the 3rd largest decision	+0.011	+1.0	0.00	2016 build Investment Attraction & Projection (26 credits)
Without the 4th largest decision	+0.018	+1.6	−1.00	2016 build Innovation & Commercialisation (26 credits)
Without the 5th largest decision	+0.012	+1.0	0.00	2016 build Digital & AI Competence (26 credits)
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.182	+10.9	0.00	2008 S02 (-33.3 points)
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.524	+36.1	+1.00	2020 S01 (-32.9 points)
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.368	+25.5	+1.00	2020 S10 (-28.9 points)

Simulations

Three simulations told round by round, each on its own page: the one nearest the median index at the horizon, and those nearest the 10th and the 90th percentile. Every one of the 30 is listed with its outcome on the simulations page.

All 30 simulations

Events

How often each shock and upside event began across the simulations. Shocks come from the ten downside scenarios and upside events from the ten upside ones, at their yearly likelihood.

Event	Kind	Simulations	Mean round	Points
Trade bloc rupture S01	Shock	100 per cent	24.0	−32.9
Global funding seizure S02	Shock	100 per cent	12.0	−33.3
Severe pandemic S10	Shock	100 per cent	24.0	−28.9
Debt service reset S11	Upside	100 per cent	17.0	+0.2

Groups across simulations

Every capability group: its position, and its median and spread at the horizon across the simulations, with what the method spent on it.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	1996	2026	Change	Levels invested	Credits
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.40	19.17 19.14 to 19.20	+7.77	8.19	249
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	13.39	20.00 20.00 to 20.00	+6.61	7.56	117
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	13.08	18.69 18.64 to 18.75	+5.61	6.91	236
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	13.43	18.51 18.47 to 18.56	+5.08	5.35	181
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	14.21	18.46 18.43 to 18.49	+4.25	5.00	136
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	12.16	15.82 15.73 to 15.94	+3.66	6.31	130
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	12.79	16.35 16.30 to 16.40	+3.56	5.72	140
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	12.84	16.33 16.27 to 16.39	+3.49	5.86	142
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	15.39	18.77 18.76 to 18.79	+3.38	6.31	227
Advanced Education	Human Capital	14.66	17.98 17.92 to 18.02	+3.32	3.90	109
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	14.36	17.66 17.59 to 17.72	+3.30	6.37	250
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	13.66	16.86 16.85 to 16.87	+3.20	5.21	140
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	6.36	9.42 9.33 to 9.57	+3.06	4.12	81
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	14.88	16.77 16.57 to 17.15	+1.89	3.11	77
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	13.49	14.50 14.38 to 14.63	+1.01	1.90	46
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	9.48	9.86 9.78 to 9.93	+0.38	0.64	28
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	10.52	10.69 10.66 to 10.73	+0.17	1.50	21
Health System Capability	Human Capital	12.95	12.96 12.83 to 13.04	+0.01	0.82	21
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	0.00	0.01 0.00 to 0.01	+0.01	0.00	0
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	15.08	15.02 14.84 to 15.14	−0.06	1.33	21
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	12.04	11.89 11.78 to 11.97	−0.15	0.00	0
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	7.48	7.23 7.17 to 7.29	−0.25	0.00	0
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	4.51	4.16 4.13 to 4.18	−0.35	0.00	0
Space Operations	National Security	4.58	4.19 4.16 to 4.20	−0.39	0.00	0
Air Power	National Security	6.32	5.88 5.87 to 5.90	−0.44	0.00	0
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	8.12	7.67 7.62 to 7.74	−0.45	0.00	0
Maritime Power	National Security	7.36	6.90 6.89 to 6.90	−0.46	0.00	0
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.88	11.41 11.34 to 11.50	−0.47	0.00	0
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	6.44	5.97 5.93 to 6.00	−0.47	0.00	0
Land Power	National Security	7.73	7.22 7.21 to 7.23	−0.51	0.00	0
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	3.53	2.98 2.97 to 2.98	−0.55	0.00	0
Foundational Education	Human Capital	14.91	14.36 14.24 to 14.51	−0.55	0.00	0
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	8.82	8.26 8.19 to 8.30	−0.56	0.00	0
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.61	10.04 9.98 to 10.13	−0.57	0.00	0
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	8.65	8.06 8.03 to 8.09	−0.59	0.00	0
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	11.19	10.57 10.52 to 10.61	−0.62	0.00	0
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	11.74	10.97 10.96 to 10.99	−0.77	0.00	0
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	14.05	13.28 13.23 to 13.32	−0.77	0.00	0
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	5.78	4.95 4.94 to 4.97	−0.83	0.00	0
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	14.70	13.86 13.83 to 13.89	−0.84	0.00	0
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	14.64	13.75 13.64 to 13.87	−0.89	0.00	0
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	14.39	13.50 13.47 to 13.52	−0.89	0.00	0
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	14.36	13.46 13.45 to 13.47	−0.90	0.00	0
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	14.79	13.88 13.85 to 13.89	−0.91	0.00	0
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	14.66	13.75 13.74 to 13.79	−0.91	0.00	0
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	14.09	13.17 13.16 to 13.19	−0.92	0.00	0
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	13.66	12.72 12.57 to 12.85	−0.94	0.00	0
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	14.99	13.95 13.82 to 14.08	−1.04	0.00	0
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	6.58	5.53 5.51 to 5.56	−1.05	0.00	0
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	13.97	12.89 12.85 to 12.94	−1.08	0.00	0
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	14.05	12.95 12.93 to 12.96	−1.10	0.00	0
Population Health	Human Capital	12.68	11.55 11.52 to 11.57	−1.13	0.00	0
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	13.79	12.59 12.26 to 12.93	−1.20	0.00	0
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	16.91	15.66 15.65 to 15.71	−1.25	0.00	0
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	8.23	6.92 6.90 to 6.96	−1.31	0.00	0
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	14.53	13.13 13.02 to 13.23	−1.40	0.00	0
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	11.60	10.18 10.12 to 10.24	−1.42	0.00	0
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	9.88	8.44 8.39 to 8.49	−1.44	0.00	0
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	10.48	8.89 8.85 to 8.94	−1.59	0.00	0
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	9.69	7.79 7.78 to 7.81	−1.90	0.00	0
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	12.91	10.96 10.94 to 10.98	−1.95	0.00	0
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	13.30	11.33 11.28 to 11.39	−1.97	0.00	0
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	10.40	8.42 8.38 to 8.47	−1.98	0.00	0
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	10.65	8.65 8.63 to 8.66	−2.00	0.00	0
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	12.39	10.33 10.24 to 10.44	−2.06	0.00	0
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	11.20	9.10 9.06 to 9.14	−2.10	0.00	0
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	13.07	10.73 10.70 to 10.76	−2.34	0.00	0
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	12.10	9.71 9.70 to 9.73	−2.39	0.00	0
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	13.93	11.53 11.52 to 11.57	−2.40	0.00	0
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	15.26	12.48 12.45 to 12.51	−2.78	0.00	0
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	12.93	10.06 9.99 to 10.14	−2.87	0.00	0
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	10.34	7.46 7.40 to 7.51	−2.88	0.00	0
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	15.33	12.43 12.36 to 12.52	−2.90	0.00	0

Checks

The automated checks run on this experiment before anything was written about it. A warning is a candidate finding for the improvement loop.

passcredits_conservedlargest gap between credits in and credits accounted for: 5.7e-14
passscores_in_boundsscores range 0.000 to 20.000
passno_nans0 missing values in the trajectory and objectives
passprobe_replay_reproducesthe recorded moves played back reproduce the simulation to within 0.0e+00 points (10 simulations)
passledger_balancesthe edge ledger sums to the propagated change to within 1.0e-06 points
passmove_without_shocklargest one-year move in a group with no shock landing: 1.52 points; 0% of simulations have one above 3
warntier_jumplargest gain in one domain within five years: 7 tiers (30 simulations above 2); tiers are reported, not an objective
passall_tier1_from_outside_top10starting rank 29; 0 simulations reach Tier 1 in all nine domains
warnsaturation_high100% of simulations end with a group at 20 that did not start there (median 1 groups)
passsaturation_low0% of simulations end with a group at 0 that did not start there (median 0 groups)
passspend_concentrationmedian concentration of spending across groups (HHI) 0.073; most funded group economic.financial_strength.fiscal_capacity_and_public_finance
passsame_actionthe most repeated move (group and mode) appears in a median 33% of rounds
passregression_index_p50index_p50 moved 2.2% since cycle-002 (12.10 to 11.83); versions changed (0.1.0 to 0.1.1, graph 0.2.0 to 0.2.0)
passregression_score_sum_p50score_sum_p50 moved 2.1% since cycle-002 (859.63 to 841.71); versions changed (0.1.0 to 0.1.1, graph 0.2.0 to 0.2.0)

Settings and versions

Experiment cycle-003.e4-irl. Every simulation records the model, graph and parameter versions, the scenario, the method and its seed, so it can be reproduced exactly.

Nation: Ireland (IRL)
Position: A reconstructed 1996 position, aligned to the Index's scale
Method: Scripted. Actions fixed in advance by the experiment: for a backcast, the nation's historical pathway.
Scenario: Scripted events: Global funding seizure in year 12, Debt service reset in year 17, Trade bloc rupture in year 24, Severe pandemic in year 24
Objective: Capability index, the primary objective the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it
Horizon: 30 rounds, 1996 to 2026
Simulations: 30 seeds, 1 to 30. Every method in the batch faces the same draws for the same seed.
Graph elasticities: Drawn for each simulation, uniformly within each edge’s bracket
Income: Base credits 425.9 a round, moving with the economic groups
Versions: Model 0.2.0, Capability Dependency Graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.1
Batch: Backcast 1996-2026 (cycle-003), cycle 3 of the improvement loop
Runtime: 7.0 seconds in all; 1679 microseconds a round

Not a forecast: Every figure is a distribution over the simulations of a structural model, reported to compare methods and test the model. None is a prediction of what a nation will do or become.
Structural parameters: Costs, decay, vulnerability and credits are structural seed values with low or medium confidence, set by domain with single-group exceptions. Five groups have no defensible value in a single-nation model and are flagged in the parameter tables.
Other nations are frozen: One nation is simulated at a time. Every other nation stays at its 2026 rating, so rank and tiers are measured against a still field; where the simulated nation rises past others their own tiers are not re-sorted.
Starting depth and mode are defaults: The position is the National Capability Index ratings. How institutionalised each capability is, and how much was built, bought or partnered, have no data behind them yet and start from structural defaults.
Credits are calibrated, not measured: Each nation’s income is set so that its position is affordable with headroom that rises with its fiscal capacity. It is not yet fiscal capacity as a share of GDP.