A good simulation (90th percentile) · cycle-003.e4-irl

Simulation 10

Ireland, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 10: a good simulation (90th percentile) of the experiment's 30. Capability index 11.93 at the 1996 position, 11.84 in 2026; 118 actions over 30 rounds and 3 shocks.

Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 10

The experiment · The other representative simulations: 9 (median simulation), 27 (a poor simulation (10th percentile))

Outcome

From the 1996 position to 2026.

Capability index: 11.84 (−0.09); From 11.93
Rank by index: 29; From 29
Domains at Tier 1: 4; From 1
Events: 3 shocks; 1 upside event

Trajectory by domain

The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.

ShockUpside event

Capability index by round

Pathway, round by round

Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.

Round	Decision	Events	Index
1997	Partner Investment Attraction & Projection 21 Partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 21 Partner Advanced Education 21 Partner Transport Infrastructure 21 Partner Communications & Digital Infrastructure 21		11.96 +0.028
1998	Partner Investment Attraction & Projection 21 Partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 21 Partner Advanced Education 21 Partner Transport Infrastructure 21 Partner Communications & Digital Infrastructure 21		12.01 +0.056
1999	Partner Investment Attraction & Projection 22 Partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 22 Partner Advanced Education 22 Partner Transport Infrastructure 22 Partner Communications & Digital Infrastructure 22		12.08 +0.065
2000	Partner Investment Attraction & Projection 22 Partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 22 Partner Advanced Education 22 Partner Transport Infrastructure 22 Partner Communications & Digital Infrastructure 22		12.14 +0.061
2001	Partner Investment Attraction & Projection 22 Partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 22 Partner Advanced Education 22 Partner Transport Infrastructure 22 Partner Communications & Digital Infrastructure 22		12.20 +0.058
2002	Build Monetary & Currency Capability 23 Build Financial System Depth & Access 23 Build Transport Infrastructure 23 Build Social Infrastructure 23 Build Innovation & Commercialisation 23		12.26 +0.063
2003	Build Monetary & Currency Capability 23 Build Financial System Depth & Access 23 Build Transport Infrastructure 23 Build Social Infrastructure 23 Build Innovation & Commercialisation 23		12.33 +0.068
2004	Build Monetary & Currency Capability 23 Build Financial System Depth & Access 23 Build Transport Infrastructure 23 Build Social Infrastructure 23 Build Innovation & Commercialisation 23		12.41 +0.081
2005	Build Monetary & Currency Capability 24 Build Financial System Depth & Access 24 Build Transport Infrastructure 24 Build Social Infrastructure 24 Build Innovation & Commercialisation 24		12.49 +0.083
2006	Build Monetary & Currency Capability 24 Build Financial System Depth & Access 24 Build Transport Infrastructure 24 Build Social Infrastructure 24 Build Innovation & Commercialisation 24		12.57 +0.079
2007	Build Monetary & Currency Capability 24 Build Financial System Depth & Access 24 Build Transport Infrastructure 24 Build Social Infrastructure 24 Build Innovation & Commercialisation 14		12.64 +0.071
2008	Build Financial Stability & Crisis Management 24 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 24 Build Labour & Employment 11	Global funding seizure	12.20 −0.448
2009	Build Financial Stability & Crisis Management 24 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 24 Build Labour & Employment 24 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 18		12.24 +0.049
2010	Build Financial Stability & Crisis Management 23 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 23 Build Labour & Employment 23 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 13		12.29 +0.046
2011	Build Financial Stability & Crisis Management 23 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 23 Build Labour & Employment 23 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 12		12.34 +0.052
2012	Build Financial Stability & Crisis Management 24 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 24 Build Labour & Employment 24 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 13		12.39 +0.050
2013	Build Financial Stability & Crisis Management 24 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 24 Build Labour & Employment 24 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 11	Debt service reset	12.44 +0.047
2014	Build Investment Attraction & Projection 24 Build Innovation & Commercialisation 24 Build Digital & AI Competence 24 Build Energy Technologies 24 Build Social Infrastructure 12		12.49 +0.054
2015	Build Investment Attraction & Projection 26 Build Innovation & Commercialisation 26 Build Digital & AI Competence 26 Build Energy Technologies 22		12.55 +0.056
2016	Build Investment Attraction & Projection 26 Build Innovation & Commercialisation 26 Build Digital & AI Competence 26 Build Energy Technologies 7		12.60 +0.051
2017	Build Investment Attraction & Projection 26 Build Innovation & Commercialisation 26 Build Digital & AI Competence 14		12.65 +0.044
2018	Build Investment Attraction & Projection 17		12.68 +0.031
2019	Build Investment Attraction & Projection 0		12.70 +0.019
2020	No actions	Trade bloc ruptureSevere pandemic	12.12 −0.573
2021	Build National Resilience & Crisis Management 5		11.96 −0.163
2022	Build National Resilience & Crisis Management 21		11.79 −0.169
2023	Build National Resilience & Crisis Management 21 Build Health System Capability 21 Build Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 21 Build Digital & Services Trade 21 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 10		11.80 +0.012
2024	Build Social Infrastructure 9 Build Energy Technologies 9 Build Force Generation & Mobilisation 9 Build Digital & AI Competence 9 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 9		11.82 +0.016
2025	Build Social Infrastructure 9 Build Energy Technologies 9 Build Force Generation & Mobilisation 9 Build Digital & AI Competence 9 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 9		11.83 +0.012
2026	Build Social Infrastructure 9 Build Energy Technologies 9 Build Force Generation & Mobilisation 9 Build Digital & AI Competence 9 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 9		11.84 +0.013

Credits

What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.

Tiers by round

Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.

Domain	1996					2001					2006					2011					2016					2021					2026
Critical Technology	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6
Strategic Infrastructure	4	4	4	4	3	3	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
National Security	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
Human Capital	4	4	4	4	3	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Information & Influence	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	4	4	4	4	4
Governance & Integrity	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	5	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	5	5
Financial Strength	9	9	8	8	7	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	3	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	2
Production & Innovation	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Trade & Investment	5	4	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1

Probes

What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds, this one among them: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.

Probe	Index	Score sum	Tier 1
Hold instead of the method	−1.683	−115.9	−4.00
No shocks	+1.023	+67.9	+1.00
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0	0.00
Without the 1st largest decision	+0.002	+0.1	0.00
Without the 2nd largest decision	+0.008	+0.6	−1.00
Without the 3rd largest decision	+0.011	+1.0	0.00
Without the 4th largest decision	+0.018	+1.6	−1.00
Without the 5th largest decision	+0.012	+1.0	0.00
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.182	+10.9	0.00
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.524	+36.1	+1.00
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.368	+25.5	+1.00

Every group over the simulation

Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	1996	2026	Change	Invested	Decay	Events	Graph
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.40	19.16	+7.76	+8.20	−0.01	−0.74	+0.31
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	13.39	20.00	+6.61	+7.61	−0.01	−0.62	+0.45
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	13.08	18.68	+5.60	+6.90	−0.01	−1.37	+0.08
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	13.43	18.56	+5.13	+5.31	−0.01	−0.86	+0.69
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	14.21	18.48	+4.27	+4.99	−0.01	−0.81	+0.10
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	12.16	15.76	+3.60	+6.27	−0.01	−2.56	−0.10
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	12.79	16.38	+3.59	+5.72	−0.01	−2.39	+0.26
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	12.84	16.31	+3.47	+5.87	−0.01	−2.22	−0.17
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	14.36	17.74	+3.38	+6.34	−0.01	−2.77	−0.19
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	15.39	18.77	+3.38	+6.27	−0.01	−2.75	+0.01
Advanced Education	Human Capital	14.66	17.98	+3.32	+3.90	−0.01	−0.73	+0.15
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	13.66	16.87	+3.21	+5.21	−0.01	−1.96	−0.03
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	6.36	9.43	+3.07	+4.10	−0.01	−1.06	+0.04
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	14.88	16.77	+1.89	+3.07	0.00	−1.32	+0.14
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	13.49	14.49	+1.00	+1.93	0.00	−1.12	+0.19
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	9.48	9.87	+0.39	+0.64	−0.01	−0.56	+0.32
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	10.52	10.71	+0.19	+1.50	−0.01	−1.40	+0.10
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	0.00	0.01	+0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	+0.01
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	15.08	15.09	+0.01	+1.33	−0.01	−1.96	+0.65
Health System Capability	Human Capital	12.95	12.95	0.00	+0.80	0.00	−1.26	+0.45
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	12.04	11.89	−0.15	0.00	0.00	−0.73	+0.59
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	7.48	7.27	−0.21	0.00	−0.01	−0.46	+0.26
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	4.51	4.14	−0.37	0.00	0.00	−0.27	−0.09
Space Operations	National Security	4.58	4.20	−0.38	0.00	0.00	−0.28	−0.09
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	8.12	7.72	−0.40	0.00	−0.01	−0.47	+0.07
Air Power	National Security	6.32	5.90	−0.42	0.00	−0.01	−0.38	−0.05
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	6.44	6.00	−0.44	0.00	0.00	−0.56	+0.13
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.88	11.44	−0.44	0.00	−0.01	−0.81	+0.38
Maritime Power	National Security	7.36	6.90	−0.46	0.00	−0.01	−0.43	−0.02
Land Power	National Security	7.73	7.23	−0.50	0.00	−0.01	−0.45	−0.04
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	8.82	8.29	−0.53	0.00	0.00	−0.75	+0.22
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	3.53	2.98	−0.55	0.00	0.00	−0.54	−0.01
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	8.65	8.08	−0.57	0.00	−0.01	−0.50	−0.07
Foundational Education	Human Capital	14.91	14.33	−0.58	0.00	0.00	−1.00	+0.43
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	11.19	10.61	−0.58	0.00	0.00	−0.74	+0.17
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.61	9.99	−0.62	0.00	−0.01	−0.82	+0.20
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	11.74	10.99	−0.75	0.00	0.00	−0.74	−0.01
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	14.64	13.87	−0.77	0.00	−0.01	−1.09	+0.33
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	14.05	13.27	−0.78	0.00	0.00	−0.86	+0.09
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	13.66	12.87	−0.79	0.00	−0.01	−1.66	+0.88
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	5.78	4.96	−0.82	0.00	−0.01	−0.86	+0.05
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	14.70	13.83	−0.87	0.00	0.00	−0.70	−0.17
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	14.79	13.89	−0.90	0.00	0.00	−0.85	−0.05
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	14.66	13.76	−0.90	0.00	−0.01	−0.78	−0.11
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	14.39	13.48	−0.91	0.00	0.00	−0.85	−0.05
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	14.36	13.45	−0.91	0.00	0.00	−0.85	−0.05
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	14.09	13.17	−0.92	0.00	0.00	−0.86	−0.05
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	14.99	14.03	−0.96	0.00	−0.01	−1.35	+0.39
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	6.58	5.54	−1.04	0.00	−0.01	−0.95	−0.08
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	13.97	12.93	−1.04	0.00	−0.01	−0.79	−0.24
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	14.05	12.96	−1.09	0.00	0.00	−1.14	+0.05
Population Health	Human Capital	12.68	11.58	−1.10	0.00	0.00	−1.04	−0.05
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	16.91	15.66	−1.25	0.00	−0.01	−1.31	+0.07
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	8.23	6.94	−1.29	0.00	−0.01	−1.16	−0.12
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	9.88	8.48	−1.40	0.00	−0.01	−1.39	−0.01
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	14.53	13.11	−1.42	0.00	−0.01	−1.65	+0.23
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	13.79	12.33	−1.46	0.00	−0.01	−2.55	+1.11
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	11.60	10.13	−1.47	0.00	−0.01	−1.41	−0.05
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	10.48	8.94	−1.54	0.00	−0.01	−1.43	−0.12
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	9.69	7.79	−1.90	0.00	−0.01	−1.87	−0.01
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	12.39	10.48	−1.91	0.00	−0.01	−2.37	+0.46
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	13.30	11.38	−1.92	0.00	−0.01	−1.67	−0.24
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	12.91	10.97	−1.94	0.00	−0.01	−1.87	−0.06
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	10.40	8.42	−1.98	0.00	0.00	−1.78	−0.19
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	10.65	8.64	−2.01	0.00	−0.01	−1.96	−0.05
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	11.20	9.08	−2.12	0.00	−0.01	−1.98	−0.14
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	13.07	10.72	−2.35	0.00	−0.01	−2.21	−0.13
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	13.93	11.56	−2.37	0.00	−0.01	−2.40	+0.04
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	12.10	9.71	−2.39	0.00	−0.01	−2.39	+0.01
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	15.26	12.46	−2.80	0.00	−0.01	−2.58	−0.21
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	15.33	12.52	−2.81	0.00	−0.01	−2.58	−0.23
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	12.93	10.02	−2.91	0.00	−0.01	−2.66	−0.24
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	10.34	7.42	−2.92	0.00	−0.01	−2.64	−0.28

Seed 10 of experiment cycle-003.e4-irl. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.