A poor simulation (10th percentile) · cycle-003.e4-mex

Simulation 25

Mexico, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 25: a poor simulation (10th percentile) of the experiment's 30. Capability index 9.67 at the 1996 position, 8.58 in 2026; 175 actions over 30 rounds and 7 shocks.

Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 25

The experiment · The other representative simulations: 16 (median simulation), 17 (a good simulation (90th percentile))

Outcome

From the 1996 position to 2026.

Capability index: 8.58 (−1.08); From 9.67
Rank by index: 62; From 49
Domains at Tier 1: 0; From 0
Events: 7 shocks; 0 upside events

Trajectory by domain

The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.

ShockUpside event

Capability index by round

Pathway, round by round

Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.

Round	Decision	Events	Index
1997	Build Monetary & Currency Capability 6 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 6 Build Financial System Depth & Access 6 Build Trade Facilitation & Logistics 6 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 6		9.68 +0.010
1998	Build Monetary & Currency Capability 6 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 6 Build Financial System Depth & Access 6 Build Trade Facilitation & Logistics 6 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 6	Global funding seizure	9.54 −0.135
1999	Build Monetary & Currency Capability 6 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 6 Build Financial System Depth & Access 6 Build Trade Facilitation & Logistics 6 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 6		9.56 +0.021
2000	Build Monetary & Currency Capability 6 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 6 Build Financial System Depth & Access 6 Build Trade Facilitation & Logistics 6 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 6 Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 6 Build Early Childhood Development 6 Build Population Health 6 Build Health System Capability 6 Build Social Infrastructure 6		9.59 +0.024
2001	Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 6 Build Early Childhood Development 6 Build Population Health 6 Build Health System Capability 6 Build Social Infrastructure 6		9.61 +0.020
2002	Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 6 Build Early Childhood Development 6 Build Population Health 6 Build Health System Capability 6 Build Social Infrastructure 6		9.62 +0.014
2003	Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 6 Build Early Childhood Development 6 Build Population Health 6 Build Health System Capability 6 Build Social Infrastructure 6		9.63 +0.013
2004	Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 6 Build Early Childhood Development 6 Build Population Health 6 Build Health System Capability 6 Build Social Infrastructure 6		9.65 +0.018
2005	Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 6 Build Early Childhood Development 6 Build Population Health 6 Build Health System Capability 6 Build Social Infrastructure 6		9.67 +0.018
2006	Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 6 Build Early Childhood Development 6 Build Population Health 6 Build Health System Capability 6 Build Social Infrastructure 6 Build Internal Security & Order 6 Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 6 Build Transport Infrastructure 6 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 6 Build Energy Infrastructure 6	Legitimacy rupture	9.52 −0.153
2007	Build Internal Security & Order 6 Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 6 Build Transport Infrastructure 6 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 6 Build Energy Infrastructure 6		9.54 +0.020
2008	Build Internal Security & Order 6 Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 6 Build Transport Infrastructure 6 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 6 Build Energy Infrastructure 6	Global funding seizure	9.24 −0.291
2009	Build Internal Security & Order 6 Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 6 Build Transport Infrastructure 6 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 6 Build Energy Infrastructure 6	Severe pandemic	9.09 −0.154
2010	Build Internal Security & Order 5 Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 5 Build Transport Infrastructure 5 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 5 Build Energy Infrastructure 5		9.10 +0.005
2011	Build Internal Security & Order 5 Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 5 Build Transport Infrastructure 5 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 5 Build Energy Infrastructure 5		9.10 +0.004
2012	Build Internal Security & Order 5 Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 5 Build Transport Infrastructure 5 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 5 Build Energy Infrastructure 5 Partner Energy Technologies 5 Partner Energy Infrastructure 5 Partner Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 5 Partner Communications & Digital Infrastructure 5 Partner Advanced Education 5		9.11 +0.014
2013	Partner Energy Technologies 5 Partner Energy Infrastructure 5 Partner Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 5 Partner Communications & Digital Infrastructure 5 Partner Advanced Education 5		9.13 +0.018
2014	Partner Energy Technologies 5 Partner Energy Infrastructure 5 Partner Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 5 Partner Communications & Digital Infrastructure 5 Partner Advanced Education 5		9.15 +0.022
2015	Partner Energy Technologies 5 Partner Energy Infrastructure 5 Partner Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 5 Partner Communications & Digital Infrastructure 5 Partner Advanced Education 5		9.18 +0.021
2016	Partner Energy Technologies 5 Partner Energy Infrastructure 5 Partner Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 5 Partner Communications & Digital Infrastructure 5 Partner Advanced Education 5		9.19 +0.019
2017	Partner Energy Technologies 5 Partner Energy Infrastructure 5 Partner Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 5 Partner Communications & Digital Infrastructure 5 Partner Advanced Education 5		9.21 +0.019
2018	Partner Energy Technologies 5 Partner Energy Infrastructure 5 Partner Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 5 Partner Communications & Digital Infrastructure 5 Partner Advanced Education 5 Build Social Infrastructure 13 Build Population Health 13 Build Resource Infrastructure 13 Build Energy Infrastructure 13 Build Internal Security & Order 13	Trade bloc rupture	9.15 −0.059
2019	Build Social Infrastructure 13 Build Population Health 13 Build Resource Infrastructure 13 Build Energy Infrastructure 13 Build Internal Security & Order 13		9.10 −0.058
2020	Build Social Infrastructure 11 Build Population Health 11 Build Resource Infrastructure 11 Build Energy Infrastructure 11 Build Internal Security & Order 11	Severe pandemic	8.55 −0.545
2021	Build Social Infrastructure 11 Build Population Health 11 Build Resource Infrastructure 11 Build Energy Infrastructure 11 Build Internal Security & Order 11		8.57 +0.016
2022	Build Social Infrastructure 12 Build Population Health 12 Build Resource Infrastructure 12 Build Energy Infrastructure 12 Build Internal Security & Order 12	Breadbasket failure	8.47 −0.100
2023	Build Social Infrastructure 12 Build Population Health 12 Build Resource Infrastructure 12 Build Energy Infrastructure 12 Build Internal Security & Order 12		8.48 +0.014
2024	Build Social Infrastructure 12 Build Population Health 12 Build Resource Infrastructure 12 Build Energy Infrastructure 12 Build Internal Security & Order 12 Partner Trade Facilitation & Logistics 5 Partner Industrial & Sectoral Base 5 Partner Energy Technologies 5 Partner Digital & Services Trade 5 Partner Technology Adoption & Diffusion 5		8.51 +0.027
2025	Partner Trade Facilitation & Logistics 5 Partner Industrial & Sectoral Base 5 Partner Energy Technologies 5 Partner Digital & Services Trade 5 Partner Technology Adoption & Diffusion 5		8.55 +0.037
2026	Partner Trade Facilitation & Logistics 5 Partner Industrial & Sectoral Base 5 Partner Energy Technologies 5 Partner Digital & Services Trade 5 Partner Technology Adoption & Diffusion 5		8.58 +0.037

Credits

What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.

Tiers by round

Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.

Domain	1996					2001					2006					2011					2016					2021					2026
Critical Technology	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	9	8	9	9	8	8	8
Strategic Infrastructure	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
National Security	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
Human Capital	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	7	9	8	8	7	6	5	5
Information & Influence	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
Governance & Integrity	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	12	12	12	13	13	12	12	12	10	9
Financial Strength	14	14	14	14	14	11	11	11	11	11	14	14	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	17	17	17	17	17	17	17
Production & Innovation	10	10	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	12	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	14	14	14	14	14	14	13
Trade & Investment	7	7	8	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	8	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	10	10	10	10	10	10	10

Probes

What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.

Probe	Index	Score sum
Hold instead of the method	−0.871	−66.2
No shocks	+1.953	+133.7
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0
Without the 1st largest decision	−0.005	−0.5
Without the 2nd largest decision	−0.007	−0.6
Without the 3rd largest decision	−0.005	−0.4
Without the 4th largest decision	−0.006	−0.5
Without the 5th largest decision	−0.008	−0.6
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.544	+37.6
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.388	+26.1
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.288	+19.6

Every group over the simulation

Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	1996	2026	Change	Invested	Events	Graph
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.61	15.05	+4.44	+5.58	−1.16	+0.02
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	8.89	13.16	+4.27	+5.43	−1.21	+0.05
Population Health	Human Capital	10.58	14.62	+4.04	+5.63	−1.50	−0.09
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.41	14.11	+2.70	+3.78	−1.03	−0.06
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	5.31	7.81	+2.50	+3.76	−1.25	−0.01
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.54	13.57	+2.03	+4.22	−1.46	−0.73
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	11.56	13.09	+1.53	+2.36	−1.01	+0.19
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	13.65	14.89	+1.24	+2.58	−1.03	−0.32
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	8.44	9.63	+1.19	+2.22	−1.12	+0.10
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	9.73	10.42	+0.69	+1.95	−1.17	−0.09
Advanced Education	Human Capital	10.80	11.48	+0.68	+1.86	−1.05	−0.12
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	9.48	10.03	+0.55	+1.89	−1.32	−0.02
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	0.00	0.01	+0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.40	11.38	−0.02	+1.45	−1.03	−0.44
Health System Capability	Human Capital	11.03	10.76	−0.27	+1.73	−1.65	−0.35
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	3.44	2.79	−0.65	0.00	−0.58	−0.07
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	5.70	5.04	−0.66	0.00	−0.55	−0.11
Space Operations	National Security	5.78	5.06	−0.72	0.00	−0.55	−0.16
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	10.37	9.63	−0.74	+1.03	−1.92	+0.15
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	4.06	3.32	−0.74	0.00	−0.68	−0.06
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	9.85	9.10	−0.75	0.00	−1.01	+0.26
Maritime Power	National Security	7.36	6.55	−0.81	0.00	−0.69	−0.12
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	4.69	3.87	−0.82	0.00	−0.78	−0.04
Air Power	National Security	7.43	6.60	−0.83	0.00	−0.69	−0.13
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	4.18	3.32	−0.86	0.00	−0.83	−0.03
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	8.12	7.23	−0.89	0.00	−0.75	−0.13
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	8.71	7.80	−0.91	0.00	−0.80	−0.11
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	9.14	8.22	−0.92	0.00	−0.84	−0.08
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	5.71	4.78	−0.93	0.00	−0.94	0.00
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	11.90	10.97	−0.93	+2.38	−3.27	−0.05
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	11.44	10.49	−0.95	+1.11	−2.36	+0.29
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	9.68	8.70	−0.98	0.00	−0.98	0.00
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	9.09	8.10	−0.99	0.00	−0.93	−0.07
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	9.27	8.27	−1.00	0.00	−0.94	−0.06
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	8.50	7.49	−1.01	0.00	−1.08	+0.07
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	8.73	7.71	−1.02	0.00	−0.99	−0.03
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	5.64	4.61	−1.03	0.00	−0.93	−0.11
Land Power	National Security	8.80	7.77	−1.03	0.00	−0.80	−0.22
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	12.15	11.07	−1.08	0.00	−1.06	−0.02
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	5.44	4.33	−1.11	0.00	−1.06	−0.06
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	6.71	5.53	−1.18	0.00	−1.09	−0.09
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	7.91	6.71	−1.20	0.00	−0.83	−0.36
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	12.29	10.90	−1.39	+0.68	−2.26	+0.18
Foundational Education	Human Capital	9.89	8.50	−1.39	0.00	−1.51	+0.12
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.96	10.54	−1.42	0.00	−1.19	−0.23
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.43	8.86	−1.57	0.00	−1.18	−0.40
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	5.73	4.15	−1.58	0.00	−1.54	−0.04
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	10.11	8.46	−1.65	0.00	−1.15	−0.50
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	12.53	10.86	−1.67	+1.23	−2.56	−0.35
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	10.98	9.29	−1.69	+1.06	−2.72	−0.03
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	8.11	6.34	−1.77	0.00	−1.42	−0.35
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	11.30	9.52	−1.78	0.00	−1.83	+0.05
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	13.06	11.27	−1.79	0.00	−1.80	+0.01
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	11.00	9.18	−1.82	0.00	−1.56	−0.26
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	9.52	7.69	−1.83	0.00	−1.78	−0.06
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	8.96	7.08	−1.88	0.00	−1.67	−0.21
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.95	10.04	−1.91	0.00	−1.36	−0.56
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	12.31	10.20	−2.11	0.00	−1.82	−0.29
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	9.21	7.10	−2.11	0.00	−1.90	−0.21
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	10.31	8.20	−2.11	0.00	−1.89	−0.22
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	11.66	9.50	−2.16	0.00	−2.07	−0.08
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	10.78	8.27	−2.51	0.00	−2.22	−0.28
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	11.98	9.31	−2.67	+1.01	−3.35	−0.33
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	9.95	7.26	−2.69	0.00	−2.63	−0.07
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	9.89	7.20	−2.69	0.00	−2.46	−0.23
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	11.25	8.54	−2.71	0.00	−2.54	−0.17
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	10.97	8.24	−2.73	0.00	−2.74	+0.01
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	8.58	5.82	−2.76	0.00	−2.62	−0.14
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	13.61	10.80	−2.81	0.00	−2.66	−0.15
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	9.93	7.10	−2.83	0.00	−2.46	−0.36
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	11.98	9.05	−2.93	0.00	−2.81	−0.13
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	11.92	8.67	−3.25	0.00	−3.20	−0.05
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	11.06	7.74	−3.32	+0.87	−3.76	−0.43

Seed 25 of experiment cycle-003.e4-mex. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.