Simulation 16
Mexico, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 16: median simulation of the experiment's 30. Capability index 9.67 at the 1996 position, 8.59 in 2026; 175 actions over 30 rounds and 7 shocks.
Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 16
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 25 (a poor simulation (10th percentile)), 17 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 1996 position to 2026.
- Capability index
- 8.59 (−1.07)
- From 9.67
- Rank by index
- 62
- From 49
- Domains at Tier 1
- 0
- From 0
- Events
- 7 shocks
- 0 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1997 |
| 9.68 +0.010 | |
| 1998 |
| Global funding seizure | 9.54 −0.135 |
| 1999 |
| 9.56 +0.021 | |
| 2000 |
| 9.59 +0.024 | |
| 2001 |
| 9.61 +0.020 | |
| 2002 |
| 9.62 +0.014 | |
| 2003 |
| 9.63 +0.013 | |
| 2004 |
| 9.65 +0.017 | |
| 2005 |
| 9.67 +0.018 | |
| 2006 |
| Legitimacy rupture | 9.52 −0.153 |
| 2007 |
| 9.54 +0.020 | |
| 2008 |
| Global funding seizure | 9.24 −0.291 |
| 2009 |
| Severe pandemic | 9.09 −0.154 |
| 2010 |
| 9.10 +0.006 | |
| 2011 |
| 9.10 +0.005 | |
| 2012 |
| 9.12 +0.015 | |
| 2013 |
| 9.13 +0.019 | |
| 2014 |
| 9.16 +0.023 | |
| 2015 |
| 9.18 +0.022 | |
| 2016 |
| 9.20 +0.019 | |
| 2017 |
| 9.22 +0.019 | |
| 2018 |
| Trade bloc rupture | 9.16 −0.058 |
| 2019 |
| 9.10 −0.058 | |
| 2020 |
| Severe pandemic | 8.56 −0.544 |
| 2021 |
| 8.57 +0.016 | |
| 2022 |
| Breadbasket failure | 8.47 −0.098 |
| 2023 |
| 8.49 +0.014 | |
| 2024 |
| 8.52 +0.028 | |
| 2025 |
| 8.55 +0.038 | |
| 2026 |
| 8.59 +0.038 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 1996 | 2001 | 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | 2021 | 2026 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| National Security | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| Human Capital | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 5 |
| Information & Influence | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| Governance & Integrity | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 9 |
| Financial Strength | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 14 | 14 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 |
| Production & Innovation | 10 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 13 |
| Trade & Investment | 7 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −0.871 | −66.2 | 0.00 |
| No shocks | +1.953 | +133.7 | 0.00 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.005 | −0.5 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.007 | −0.6 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.005 | −0.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.006 | −0.5 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.008 | −0.6 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.544 | +37.6 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.388 | +26.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.288 | +19.6 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 1996 | 2026 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.61 | 15.07 | +4.46 | +5.58 | 0.00 | −1.16 | +0.04 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 8.89 | 13.16 | +4.27 | +5.43 | 0.00 | −1.21 | +0.04 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 10.58 | 14.63 | +4.05 | +5.62 | 0.00 | −1.50 | −0.07 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.41 | 14.14 | +2.73 | +3.78 | 0.00 | −1.03 | −0.03 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 5.31 | 7.79 | +2.48 | +3.76 | 0.00 | −1.25 | −0.02 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.54 | 13.71 | +2.17 | +4.20 | 0.00 | −1.46 | −0.58 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 11.56 | 13.07 | +1.51 | +2.36 | 0.00 | −1.01 | +0.17 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.65 | 14.87 | +1.22 | +2.58 | 0.00 | −1.03 | −0.34 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 8.44 | 9.58 | +1.14 | +2.22 | 0.00 | −1.12 | +0.05 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 9.73 | 10.37 | +0.64 | +1.95 | 0.00 | −1.17 | −0.14 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 10.80 | 11.42 | +0.62 | +1.86 | 0.00 | −1.05 | −0.18 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 9.48 | 10.03 | +0.55 | +1.89 | 0.00 | −1.32 | −0.02 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.40 | 11.47 | +0.07 | +1.45 | 0.00 | −1.03 | −0.35 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 0.00 | 0.01 | +0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.01 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 11.03 | 10.79 | −0.24 | +1.73 | 0.00 | −1.65 | −0.32 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 3.44 | 2.80 | −0.64 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.58 | −0.06 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 5.70 | 5.03 | −0.67 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.55 | −0.12 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 5.78 | 5.06 | −0.72 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.55 | −0.17 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 10.37 | 9.64 | −0.73 | +1.03 | 0.00 | −1.92 | +0.17 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 4.06 | 3.31 | −0.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.68 | −0.07 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 9.85 | 9.07 | −0.78 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.00 | +0.23 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 7.36 | 6.56 | −0.80 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.69 | −0.11 |
| Air Power | National Security | 7.43 | 6.60 | −0.83 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.69 | −0.14 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 4.69 | 3.86 | −0.83 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.78 | −0.06 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 4.18 | 3.32 | −0.86 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.83 | −0.03 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 5.71 | 4.81 | −0.90 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.94 | +0.04 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 8.12 | 7.21 | −0.91 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.75 | −0.16 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 8.71 | 7.79 | −0.92 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.80 | −0.12 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 11.90 | 10.97 | −0.93 | +2.38 | 0.00 | −3.27 | −0.05 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 11.44 | 10.46 | −0.98 | +1.12 | 0.00 | −2.36 | +0.26 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 9.14 | 8.15 | −0.99 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.83 | −0.15 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 9.09 | 8.10 | −0.99 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.93 | −0.07 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 9.68 | 8.69 | −0.99 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.98 | −0.01 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 8.50 | 7.50 | −1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.08 | +0.08 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 9.27 | 8.26 | −1.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.94 | −0.07 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 8.73 | 7.72 | −1.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.99 | −0.02 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 5.64 | 4.61 | −1.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.92 | −0.10 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.15 | 11.09 | −1.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.06 | 0.00 |
| Land Power | National Security | 8.80 | 7.72 | −1.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.80 | −0.27 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 5.44 | 4.35 | −1.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.06 | −0.03 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 7.91 | 6.77 | −1.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.83 | −0.30 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 6.71 | 5.55 | −1.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.09 | −0.07 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 12.29 | 10.91 | −1.38 | +0.68 | 0.00 | −2.26 | +0.20 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 9.89 | 8.49 | −1.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.51 | +0.10 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.96 | 10.47 | −1.49 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.19 | −0.30 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 12.53 | 11.01 | −1.52 | +1.23 | 0.00 | −2.56 | −0.20 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.43 | 8.87 | −1.56 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.18 | −0.38 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 10.11 | 8.54 | −1.57 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.15 | −0.42 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 5.73 | 4.14 | −1.59 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.53 | −0.05 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 10.98 | 9.33 | −1.65 | +1.06 | 0.00 | −2.72 | +0.01 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.95 | 10.23 | −1.72 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.36 | −0.37 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 11.00 | 9.27 | −1.73 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.56 | −0.17 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 8.11 | 6.36 | −1.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.42 | −0.33 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 13.06 | 11.29 | −1.77 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.80 | +0.03 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 11.30 | 9.51 | −1.79 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.83 | +0.04 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 8.96 | 7.13 | −1.83 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.68 | −0.15 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 9.52 | 7.66 | −1.86 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.78 | −0.08 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 10.31 | 8.27 | −2.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.90 | −0.15 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 9.21 | 7.14 | −2.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.90 | −0.17 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 12.31 | 10.23 | −2.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.82 | −0.27 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 11.66 | 9.51 | −2.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.07 | −0.07 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 10.78 | 8.35 | −2.43 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.23 | −0.20 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 11.98 | 9.37 | −2.61 | +1.01 | 0.00 | −3.36 | −0.26 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 9.89 | 7.22 | −2.67 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.46 | −0.20 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 11.25 | 8.57 | −2.68 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.55 | −0.14 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 9.95 | 7.20 | −2.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.62 | −0.13 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 8.58 | 5.83 | −2.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.62 | −0.13 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 10.97 | 8.21 | −2.76 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.74 | −0.01 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 9.93 | 7.13 | −2.80 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.46 | −0.33 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 13.61 | 10.75 | −2.86 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.66 | −0.20 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 11.98 | 8.95 | −3.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.80 | −0.23 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 11.92 | 8.70 | −3.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.20 | −0.02 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 11.06 | 7.69 | −3.37 | +0.87 | 0.00 | −3.76 | −0.48 |
Seed 16 of experiment cycle-003.e4-mex. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.